Runninghead:BLUEGRASSBATTLE 1

BattleoftheBluegrass:AMessageDesignAnalysisof

HowKentuckysSenateCandidatesUsedTwitterintheirCampaigns

FernandoAlfonsoIIIandChelseaWoods

TheUniversityofKentucky

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 2

Abstract

SinceajuniorIllinoissenatorharnessedtheunmeteredpoweroftheInternettohelpwin

Americastoppoliticaloffice,socialmediahasbecomeanunavoidablenecessityforevery

politicalhopeful.OneofthesenewsocialmediacornerstonesisTwitter.Forbettersuchas

BarackObamaspresidentialvictoryin2008orworseRep.AnthonyWeinersracy

photoTwittersimmediacycanbeacandidatesgreatestassetandliability.BetweenSept.4,

2014andNov.19,2014,everytweetfromSen.MitchMcConnellanddemocratichopeful

AllisonGrimesofficialaccountswerecollected.Usingcontentanalysis,thisstudyevaluatedthe

themesfoundinthetweets,theuseofnegativeversuspositiveappeals,andtheparticularissues

addressedbythecandidates.Differencesbetweenthecandidatestweetstreamswereanalyzed.

Additionally,thetrendsinthecontentarecomparedtothedatesofimportantpoliticaleventsand

thereleaseofpollnumbers.Wefoundcandidatestweetmostfrequentlyaboutcampaignrelated

eventsandthatfollowersengagemostwithnegativetweets.

Keywords:politicalcampaigns,Twitter,campaigntone,followerengagement

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 3

Itwascalledthecountrysmostcloselywatchedcontestofthe2014midtermelections

(Raju,2013).InonecornerwasSen.MitchMcConnell,theseniorRepublicanfromKentucky

whohasheldhisseatfornearlythreedecades.IntheotherwasDemocratAlisonLundergan

Grimes,36,whowas6yearsoldwhenMitchMcConnellstartedhisSenatecareer(Raju,

2013,para.1).Eachcandidaterepresentedtheirpoliticalpartiesalmostperfectly.McConnell,71,

wasthestatelysagewhohadbecomethefaceofRepublicanobstructionism(Zengerle,2013,

para.4).HeusedtopicslikehealthcareandgunrightstochallengeObamaandrallyRepublican

support.Yetafternearly30yearsinoffice,McConnellfacedanabysmaljobapprovalrating

with54percentdisapprovingandjust36percentapprovingofhisperformance(Democrats,

2013,para.3).Grimesrepresentedtheprogressivespirit,eagertobecomethefirstelectedfemale

senatorfromthecommonwealthandthestatesfirstsenateDemocratsince1999.Grimeshoped

toreplicatethesuccessPresidentBarackObamascampaignhadin2012usingsocialmedia

platformslikeFacebook,Tumblr,andTwitter.Whateachoftheseplatformsrepresentedfor

Obamawasawaytocozyuptocitizensonline(Wortham,2012,para.1).YetwhileObama

usedsocialmediatohumanizehimselfwithcandidFacebookphotosfromthecampaigntrailand

funnyTwittermessagesknownastweets,McConnellandGrimescampaignstookadifferent

approach.

ThisstudyanalyzesacensusofTwitterdatafromSept.3,2014throughNov.29,2014to

firstdeterminewhatfunctionalpurposethetweetsfromMcConnellandGrimesofficialTwitter

accountsserveddotheytoprovideanunadulteratedlookatthelivesofthecandidates,

promoteacertainpoliticalagenda,orattacktheiropponent?Theoveralltoneandlevelof

engagementtheMcConnellandGrimescampaignhadonTwitterwasmeasuredusingacoding

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 4scheme.Specificemphasisisplacedonpositiveandnegativecampaigneventsforeach

candidateduringthistimeframetoseehowtheyaffectedthecontentandtoneofthetweets.

WhyTwitter?

Twitterisoneofthemediaandpoliticiansguiltiestpleasures.Sincetheplatformgained

tractionin2007atSouthbySouthwestInteractive,ithasbecomeadigitalplaygroundfornews

organizationsandjournalists.InJune2013,Twitterwasusedby59percentofjournalists

(OriellaPRNetwork,2013).Furthermore,nearly75percentofjournalistspolledinMarchthat

sameyearfoundnewsworthyitemsusingthesite(Lepitak,2013).Bothofthesestatisticswere

punctuatedbyastudyfromPewResearchinJunethisyearclaimingthatnearlyoneintenU.S.

adults(8percent)gottheirnewsfromTwitter(Brenner,2014).Whatthesemediaorganizations

onTwitterrepresentaregatekeeperscapableofsettingnewsagendas.Twitterprovidesan

unmediatedformofcommunicationforpoliticalcampaigns,eliminatingthepotentialalteringof

messagesthatmayoccurwhenjournalistsoreditorsfilterinformation(Parmelee&Bichard,

2011).Thislevelofinfluence,combinedwiththeabilityfortweetstobedisseminatedinstantly,

meansthatfactsaremoreimportantthaneverbecauseinformationoftenspreadsfasterandtoa

wideraudiencethanwhattraditionalnewsmediasourcescanachieve(Castillo,Mendoza,&

Poblete,2012,p.561).Twitteralsoallowsthemediatostreamlinethereportingprocessinfull

viewofthepublic.

Thepopularityandversatilityoftheplatformnodoubtcontributestoitsprominentuseas

adigitalpublicrelationstooladoptedbypoliticiansaroundtheworld(Frame&Brachotte,

2014).Asof2013,467membersofCongresswereonTwitter,accordingtoOpenCongress

(2013).Twitterofferspoliticiansachanneltobypasstraditionalgatekeepersandavoidpotential

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 5messagefilteringbyjournalistsoreditors.Simplyput,thesecampaignsuseTwittertospeak

directlytofollowers.Twitteralsoallowsaquickdisseminationofinformationandprovidesa

wayforindividualstomobilize,asexemplifiedbytheTeaParty.IndividualswhouseTwitterfor

politicalpurposesnotedhowtheypreferredthesitetoFacebookbecauseofitscleanandmore

professionalpresentation,security,andabilitytoquicklysendandreceivemessages(Parmelee&

Bichard,2012).

UnlikemostofCongress,ObamaisaTwitteroutlierwhohasbenefittedfromthe

microbloggingplatformthemost,thankstoateamofabout100people(Sweet,2010)running

hisoneofficialTwitteraccount,@barackobama.Oneofthemanyexamplesofthepresidents

loveaffairwithTwitterhappenedonNov.6,2012.Onthisday,Obamamadehistorywiththe

mostretweetedmessageinhistorywith759,000.Aretweetiswhensomeonerepostssomeones

tweetundertheirownaccount.ThetweetwassimpleonlyfeaturingaphotoofObamaandhis

wifeMichellehuggingwiththewordsFourmoreyearsaboveit.Thiscombinationofpolitical

posturingandthemediaspenchantforusingTwittertofindstoryideashaschangedhow

campaignsoperate.

WhileObamascampaignmayhavepresenteditsTwitteraccountasamainlineinto

heartandhomeofeverydayAmericans,itsprimarygoalwastocontrolthemedianarrative.

Kreiss(2014)writeshowObamaandMittRomneyusedthesocialmediaplatformasaproxy

forpublicopiniontoassesssuchthingsasthecandidatesdebateperformances(p.3).The

objectiveforbothcampaignswastocreateaclimateofopinionfavorabletotheircandidateto

influencereportersperceptionsofpoliticaleventsastheyreadsocialmediaasameasureof

publicsentiment(Kreiss,2014,p.3).Influencingreportersperceptionswasnoeasytaskas

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 6theyaretrainedtobeskepticalofmessagesputoutbypoliticalcampaignsbecauseoftheir

slantedstance.Thisskepticismhascreatedaconceptofsuccessfultweets(Kreiss,2014).

Thesearemessagesthatarecapableofgarneringmediaattentionthankstotheirsimple

language,conciseinformation,andcreativecomposition(Parmelee,2013).WhatKreissand

otherresearchersoverlookedistoneandwhetherpoliticaldevelopmentssuchaspolling,

financialreports,orgaffeshaveanynoticeableeffectonthetweetssentfromofficialcampaign

accounts.BeforepresentingourresearchonthetweetscollectedfromMcConnellandGrimes

campaignaccounts,wereviewacademicstudiesoftoneincampaignmessagesandTwitter.

LiteratureReview

Theresearchoncampaignmessagedesignandtoneisvast.Oneofthefirstseminal

studieswaspublishedbyAnsolabehereandIyengar(1995).Theduostudied34Senate

campaignsbeginningin1992.Theobjectivewastoseeifnegativecampaignmessagesturned

peopleawayfromtheelectoralprocess(Ansolabehere,1995,p.105).Thecampaignswere

studiedaspairsinsteadofindividually.AnsolabehereandIyengarrecordedwhethertheoverall

adswerepositive,negative,ormixed.Ifbothcampaignsreliedheavilyonattackadvertising,it

wasdeemednegative.Iftheylargelyavoidedpersonalorissuebasedattacksand,instead,

focusedonreasonstovoteonthecandidatestheywerelabeledaspositive(Ansolabehere,1995,

p.106).Aneutraltonewaswhenwaswhencandidatereliedonpositivemessagesandanother

didnot.WhatAnsolabehereandIyengardiscoveredwasstaggering.Mostofthecampaignsthat

electionseasonwerenegative.Sixteenofthestatesfeaturedcampaignsthatwerenegative,12

werepositive,andsixweremixed.AnsolabehereandIyengars(1995)objectivewasjustified:

Thehostilityofthe1992Senatecampaignsdrainedtheelectorateasmuchasitworedowntheopposition.ThepositiveSenatecampaignsin1992averagedhighturnoutrates57percentofthevotingagepopulation.Turnoutinthemixedtone

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 7

raceswasalmostfivepercentpointslower,52.4percent,andturnoutinthenegativeraceswasdowneverfurther,to49.7(p.108).

QuitepossiblythemoststartlingdiscoveryAnsolabehereandIyengarfoundwasthatifallthe

Senatecampaignswerepositivein1992,6.4millionmorepeoplewouldhavegonetothepolls

(1995,p.108).Geer(2006)claimsthatthistrendtowardnegativitybeganin1960buthasbeen

largelyinaccurate.InanopinionpieceforPoliticoin2008,Geerarguedthatthenegativity

aboutnegativeads,inshort,ismisplaced(para.10).Geerbelievedthatclearstandardsaround

advertisingnegativityneededtobedevelopedbeforejudgmentscouldbemade.Geers

skepticism,however,hasnotstoppedresearchersfromtacklingthequestion:Donegative

campaignsactuallyhelpgetsomeoneelected?

OneoftheearlieststudiestoattempttoanswerthisquestionwasGarramone(1984).

Thesesortsofads,asconceptualizedbyGarramone(1984),wereintendedtocastapolitical

opponentinanegativelightandideallyencouragetheelectoratetovoteforthem(p.250).One

waythiswasaccomplishedwasbymakinguntruthfulorexaggeratedclaimsaboutacandidate.

Garramone(1984)interviewed367Michiganvotersduringthefinalweekofthe1982

congressionalcampaign.Thesevoterswereaskedtoscreentwocampaigntelevision

commercialsanddeterminetheirtruthfulness.WhatGarramone(1984)discoveredwasthatthe

perceivedtruthfulnessofthecommercialcontributestoitsintendedimpact,itappearsthat

backlashorboomerangmaybethemorecommontypeofeffect(p.258).Theboomerangeffect

waswhenanegativeadbackfiredonthecampaignthatcreatedit.

ThisboomerangdefinitionwasexpandeduponbyLauandRovner(2009).Intheirstudy,

theduoaddedthatcandidateswhoattacktheiropponentmightbeperceivedasmeanspiritedor

nasty(p.295).WhatLauandRovner(2009)alsofoundthroughtheirownoriginalresearchwas

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 8thatwhilevoterswerecapableofseparatingviciousattacksfromlegitimatecomparisons,no

definitiveconclusioncouldbemadeonwhethernegativecampaignshelpedorhurtacandidate

(Lau&Rovner,2009,p.304).ButthisconclusionwasnotgoodenoughforLauandRovner.

Theduocompletedametaanalysisof43tonerelatedstudiesfindingthat12reportedpositive

effects(thatis,themorenegativecandidatereceivedmorevotes),fourofwhichwerestatistically

significant28studiesreportedunfavorableeffects(thatis,attackingtheopponentwas

counterproductive),sixofwhichwerestatisticallysignificant(Lau,2009,p.296).Eachoneof

thesetonerelatedstudieswasperformedonmessagesdisseminatedontelevision,radio,orprint.

MissingfrommostofthesestudieswastheInternetandspecificallyTwitter.

MuchofthepublishedliteratureoncampaignsandTwitterrelatesspecificallyto

presidentialcampaignsanddealswiththemessuchastransparencyordeterminingtheimpactof

Twitteronelectionoutcomes(Adams&McCorkindale,2013LaMarre&SuzukiLambrecht,

2013Levenshus,2010).Since2011,onlyasmallnumberofpublishedresearcharticlesdeal

withnonpresidentialracesandtoneonTwitter.Surprisinglyenough,manyofthemdealwith

internationalpoliticalcampaigns.ThesecountriesincludeSlovenia,theUnitedKingdom,

Australia,theNetherlands,andRomania.Startingwiththelatter,PaulAdrianAparaschivei

(2011)analyzedtweetsfromRomaniasmostpopularusersandeachpresidentialhopeful.The

toneoftweetswasnotstudied.IntheNetherlands,VergeerandHermans(2013)examinedhow

candidatesofthe2010DutchgeneralelectionsusedTwitter,specificallyexaminingwhysome

candidatesweremorelikelytoadoptTwitterandhavelargernetworks.

TheUnitedKingdomstudybyNigelJacksonandDarrenLilleker(2011)lookedathow

alreadyelectedMembersofParliamentusedTwitter.TheAustralianstudybyJeanBurgessand

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 9AxelBruns(2012)followedthehashtag#ausvotestoseehowthepublicrespondedtopolitical

happenings.TheoneteamofresearchersthatstudiedTwitterandtonewereGodnovandRedek

(2014).Theduofoundthattheoppositionismorenegativeintheirsentimentthantheruling

parties(position)whenusingTwitter(Godnov,2014,p.25).AtweetanalysisbyGodnovand

Redekalsofoundthatthemostcommonpositivewordswerework,protection,good,

tender,pardon,available.Whilethenegativelistwastoppedbywordssuchasissue,

problem,unemployed,illegal,corruption,crime(Godnov,2014,p.22).

OfthelimitedpiecesofresearchconductedonnonpresidentialcampaignsinAmerica,

theexhaustivestudybyGainousandWagner(2014)hasprovenfruitful.In2010,theduo

collectedtweetsfromthe483congressionalcandidates.Thestudyfoundanaverageof44

percentoftweetspostedbythecandidatesrelatedtocampaignannouncements,19percent

discussedpersonalcharacteristics,18percentwerenegative/attacktweets,and17percentof

tweetsdiscussedpolicy(GainousandWagner,2014).Whatnopieceofresearchaddressedwas

howcertainpoliticaleventswhichareconceptualizedinthisstudyasanymediarelated

stimulusthatgarnersaresponsefromthecampaign,suchaspollingdata,campaignfinances,

endorsements,debates,andgaffesalterthetoneoftweetsfromagivencandidate.Thisleadsto

ourfirstresearchquestions:

RQ1: Towhatextentdocampaignsalterthecontentoftheirtweetsfollowingapotentialkeyeventintherace?

RQ2: Towhatextentdoesthetoneofthetweetschangethroughoutthecourseoftherace?

Next,sincefewstudiesexaminethetoneoftweetsinpoliticalcampaigns(Gainous&

Wagner,2014),weapplyconceptsfromresearchonnegativeadvertisinginpoliticalcampaigns

toconstructourhypothesis.AccordingtoLauandRovner(2009),incumbentsprefertoavoid

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 10attackingopponentsinadvertisementsexceptinhighlycompetitivecampaigns.However,as

Jacobson(2004)pointsout,mostincumbentsarebetterknown,morepopular,andbetter

financedthantheirchallengers.ThiscampaignwasuniqueasincumbentMcConnellsuffered

fromalowapprovalrating(Cameron,Mellnik,&Blake,2014).Additionally,whileMcConnell

receivedmoremoneyfrompoliticalactioncommitteesthanGrimes,campaignfinancereports

showedGrimeshadraisedmorefundsfromsmallcampaigndonors(Loftus,2014).Thus,dueto

McConnellslowapprovalratingandthecompetitivenessoftherace,wepropose:

H: Thetwocampaignswillnotdiffersignificantlyinthetoneoftheirtweets. BecauseoftheinteractivenatureofTwitterasasocialmediaplatformaffordingit

potentiallevelsofengagementnotfeasiblewithformsofweb1.0,suchaswebsitesitisalso

importanttoexaminehowcampaignsandfollowersinteractwithoneanotheronTwitter.

LaMarreandSuzukiLambrecht(2013)notethatTwitteroffersapotentiallypowerfulavenuefor

campaignstoengagewithconstituentsonlineifthecampaignisabletoengageaudiences.To

provideapreliminaryanalysisofhowaudiencesengagewithpoliticalcampaignTwitter

accountsbasedonthecontentofthetweet,weask:

RQ3: Doesengagementvarybasedonthecontentofthetweet?.

Method

Totestthehypothesisandanswertheresearchquestions,aquantitativecontentanalysis

oftheofficialcampaignTwitterfeedsofMcConnellandGrimeswasconducted.Weexamined

howthecontentandtoneoftweetschangesfollowingeventsbeginningonSept.3,2014and

endingonNov.4,2014.Additionally,asoneoftheaffordancesofsocialmediasitesis

interactivity,tweetswereanalyzedtodeterminethelevelofengagementandinteractionwith

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 11followers.Contentanalysisisusefulwhenexaminingthecontentandtoneofpoliticalmessages,

particularlywhenfocusingonsocialmediamessages(e.g.,Graber,2004Lawless,2012

Parmelee&Bichard,2012).Thismethodprovidesresearcherswithasystematicapproachto

examinemessagesandmakeinferencesregardingtherelationshipbetweenmessagesandtheir

context(Krippendorff,1980).Thus,thisapproachpermittedustoanalyzehowthecontentand

toneofthetweetschangedoverthecourseofthelastthreemonthsofeachcampaign.To

establishintercoderreliability,thetwoauthorscoded10percent(n=95)ofthetweets.Scottspi

showedacceptableintercoderreliabilityrangingfrom.85to.87theremaining90percentofthe

tweetsweredividedequallyamongthecoderstobeindependentlycoded.

DataCollection

TweetswerecollectedfromtheofficialcampaignTwitteraccountsforchallengerGrimes

(@AlisonForKY)andincumbentMcConnell(@Team_Mitch).Datacollectedforeachmessage

includedthetweetitself,timeanddateposted,andthenumberofretweetsandfavoritesthe

tweetreceived.DatawasrecordedviaZapierandeachtweetsinformationwasverified

manuallytoensureaccuracy.TwitterdatacollectionwasconductedbetweenSept.3,2014and

Nov.29,2014,whichwasthelastdayeithercampaigntweetedatthetimeoftheanalysis.This

periodprovidesforanalysisinthetwomonthspriortoElectionDayandonemonthfollowing.

TheunitofanalysisforthestudywasindividualtweetsfromtheTwitteraccounts,consistingof

originalmessages,retweets,replies,andquotetweets.

Measures

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 12

Totestourhypothesesandanswerourresearchquestions,weanalyzedTwittercontent

usingfivemaincriteria:events,tweettheme,tweettone,andfollowerengagement.Wedefine

eachmeasurebelow.

Events.Todeterminewhicheventswouldbeincludedforanalysis,weexaminedthe

campaignsusingacombinationoflocalnews(TheCourierJournal,TheLexington

HeraldLeader,CincinnatiEnquirer)andnationalnewsoutlets(e.g.TheWashingtonTimes,

NewYorkTimes)toidentifysignificanteventsforeithercandidatewhichmightaltertherhetoric

ofthecampaign(seeTable2).

Theme.Tocodethetweets,weemployedaconventionalcontentanalysisapproach,

inductivelyidentifyinganddefiningthecodesastheyemergedfromthedatausingconstant

comparison(Zhang&Wildemuth,2009).Usingthematicanalysisallowedustolocate

meaninginthedata(Guest,MacQueen,&Namey,2012,p.49)andclassifytweetsinto

nominalcategoriesbasedonthetweetscentraltheme.Allnominalcategoriesweremutually

exclusive,exhaustive,andequivalent(Frey,Botan,&Kreps,2000).Fourprimarycategories

basedontweetthemesemergedduringthecodingprocess:issuestance,campaign,attack,and

other/notrelated.Wedevelopedacodebookcontainingacodelabel,definition,criteriaand

exemplarsforeachthemetoguidecoding(Hsieh&Shannon,2005).Descriptionsofeachcode

areprovidedbelowacompletelistofthemesandsubthemesisavailableinAppendixA.

Issuestance.Thefirstthemeissuestanceinformsvotersaboutthecandidatesstance

onanissueorpolicy,includingtheeconomy(minimumwageandjobcreation),coal,education,

healthcare,andwomensissues(unfairpayandabortion).Tweetsinthisthemedidnotinclude

referencestoanothercandidate.ExampletweetsincludeAsSenator,Allisonwillcontinuetobe

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 13astaunchadvocateforwomenjustasshehasasKY'sSec.ofState.#KYSenandSenator

McConnellhasastrongrecordoffightingforKentuckycoal!#kycoal#kysen.

Campaign.Campaignthemedtweetsfocusedspecificallyonacampaignbasedaspect,

suchasacampaignevent,debate,endorsements,pollresults,fundraising,turnout,andvoter

support.Tweetsmayincludereferencetoanothercandidate,butdonotattackthecandidateor

mentiontheirissuestance.ExampletweetsincludeAnotherbigweekend!Withfewerthan59

daystogo,everydaycounts.Volunteer:http://t.co/5BMso1DjNJ#KYSenandStandingroom

onlyinCarterCounty!#TeamMitch#kysen.

Attack.Inanattacktweet,themessagedirectlyattackstheopponentontopicssuchas

issuestance,campaigndecision,votingrecord,character,campaigndecision,orcampaign

rhetoric(Freedman,Wood,&Lawton,1999).ExamplesincludeThisweek,@Team_Mitch

madeitclearthathesideswithWashingtonoverKentucky#KYSenand.@AlisonForKY

wouldrubberstamp@BarackObama'sradicalliberalnominees.#ObamaNeedsGrimes#kysen.

Other/notrelated.Intheother/notrelatedcategory,thetweetcontentisnotrelatedtothe

candidatesissuestance,opponent,orthecampaign.Rather,itmayfocusonanationalholiday,

historicevent,orsportingevent.ExamplesincludeCongratsto@UKFootballonthewintoday.

DefensewastoughgreatstepintherightdirectionandHappy#ConstitutionDayfrom

everyoneatTeamMitch!#kysen.

Tone.Tweetswereanalyzedbasedonthetoneofthemessageandclassifiedaspositive,

negative,orneutral.Totreattoneasanintervallevelvariable,positivetweetswerecodedas1,

negativeas1,andneutralas0thus,anumbercloserto1wouldindicatemorepositivity,

comparedtoascorecloserto1indicatingnegativity.Negativetweetswereoperationalizedas

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 14basicallyopponentfocused,ratherthancandidatefocusedandfocusesonwhatiswrongwith

theopponent,eitherpersonallyorintermsofissueorpolicystances(Kaid,2000,p.157).

Positivetweets,then,areoperationalizedasthosethatacclaim,makingpositivestatementsabout

thecandidate,his/hercampaign,andhis/herideas(Benoit,1999).Neutralcontentfocuseson

neithercandidate,butsimplydisseminatesinformationanddoesnotshowdirectsupportforor

criticismofeithercandidateorcampaign.

Followerengagement.Followerengagementreflectsthedegreetowhichfollowers

respondtomessagestweetedbythecampaigns(LaMarre&SuzukiLambrecht,2013)andis

operationalizedbyathesumscoreofthenumberofretweetsandfavoriteseachtweetreceives.

Results

AlldatawascodedandanalyzedinSPSSbecauseourdatasetconsistedofcensuslevel

data,methodsofanalysisincludeddescriptives,frequencies,andcomparisonsofthemeans.Our

resultssectionbeginswithageneraloverviewofthecampaignsandtheiruseofTwitterusing

descriptivestatistics.

DescriptiveStatistics

Atthetimeofanalysis,McConnellscampaignTwitteraccounthad9,779followersand

Grimeshadapproximately20,900followers.DatacollectionviaZapierrecordedatotalof298

tweetsforMcConnelland657tweetsforGrimesduringthesamplingtimeframe(N=955).

Grimesaveragedatotalof7.4tweetsperdaywhereasMcConnellaveraged3.4tweetsperday.

BothGrimesandMcConnellprimarilyengagedincampaignbasedrhetoric,ratherthansolely

attackingtheopponentorpromotingpersonalissuestances(SeeTable1).

ResearchQuestion1

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 15

Ourfirstresearchquestionexploredtheextenttowhichcampaignsalteredthecontentof

theirtweetsfollowinganeventinthecampaign.Usingfrequencies,wecomparedthecontentof

thetweets24hourspriortotheeventtothecontent24hoursfollowingtheevent.

ChallengestoMcConnellsCampaign.OnSept.22,businessmanDonaldTrump

attemptedtosupportMcConnellsreelectionbutendorsedhimforspeakeroftheHouse,

ratherthanspeakeroftheSenate.Grimescampaignpouncedonthegaffe,shiftingfromcontent

focusingonMcConnellsfundraisingtacticsandminimumwagestance(n=2)andherown

educationstance(n=1)totweeting,WeirdthataguyfamousforsayingYou'reFiredis

endorsing@Team_Mitch,anotoriousnoshow,forSpeaker(n=4).Thefocuswas

shortlived,asGrimessoonmovedontoannouncingthelaunchofKentuckyWomenforAlison

withformerKentuckyGov.MarthaCollins(n=2)andNationalVoterRegistrationDay(n=2).

McConnellignoredthegaffeonTwitter,focusingratheronhissupportforthecoalindustry(n=

2),associatingGrimeswithObama(n=1),andthankingavoterforsupport(n=1).

OnOct.6,aBluegrassPollshowedGrimesleadingMcConnell.Thepreviousday,

McConnellsTwitterfocusedonanotherpollpublishedinTheNewYorkTimesthatshowedhim

expandinghisleadoverGrimes(n=1)andcontinuinghisObama/Grimesassociationnarrative

(n=1).TheGrimescampaigncapitalizedonthepollresults,tweetingabouthertwopointlead

overtheincumbentsenatorandherstanceontheeconomy.Thecampaignthencontinuedto

encouragefollowerstoregistertovote(n=5)andattendcampaignevents(n=3),aswellas

congratulatedtheUniversityofKentuckyfootballteamonavictory.Thecampaignalsoinitiated

thehashtag#IChallengeMitch,posingquestionstoMcConnellabouthisstancesontheminimum

wageandequalpayforwomen(n=2).TheMcConnellcampaignchosenottoaddresseither

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 16poll,divertingattentiontoanewvideoinwhichtopGrimesdonorNikoElmalehclaimedGrimes

islyingabouthersupportofthecoalindustry,statingshesgoingtof***them(n=4).

AchievementsfortheMcConnellCampaign.PositivemovementsintheMcConnell

campaignprimarilyrevolvearoundpollresultswespecificallyexaminethoseonSept.7and

Oct.30.AnNBC/MaristpollearlyindatacollectionshowedMcConnellleadingGrimesbyeight

points.McConnellscampaignhighlightedthefirstpoll(n=3),usingittopositionGrimeswith

Obama(e.g.Today'spollresultsshowconclusivelythatwhileObamawants@AlisonForKY,

KentuckianswantMitchMcConnell!).McConnellalsothankedfollowersfortheirretweets(n

=2).Grimescampaignmadenodirectresponse,choosinginsteadtoencouragefollowersto

volunteer,demonstratehersupportforveterans(n=4),attackMcConnellsvotingrecord(n=

2),andwishformerKentuckySen.WendellFordahappybirthday.

ThefinalBluegrassPollonOct.30placedMcConnellinafivepointleadoverGrimes.

McConnellscampaignbrieflyhighlightedthepoll(n=1),butthecampaignalsoretweeted

@MAllison_Moore:Hill:GrimespollstersaysshestrailingMcConnell(n=1).Additional

tweetsincludedassociatingGrimeswithObama(Obama=Grimes.RETWEETtohelpspread

theword!)orattemptingtogarnersupportfromfollowers(n=4).Similarly,Grimesdidnot

acknowledgethepoll.Rather,shecontinuedtofocusonpromotingcampaigneventswiththe

Clintons(n=6),aswellassharinganendorsementfromformerUniversityofKentuckyhead

basketballcoachJoeB.Hall(n=2),andemphasizingthecampaignsgrassrootsnetwork(n=

8).GrimesalsoattackedMcConnellsrecordandissuestance(Outoftouchandsoontobe

outoftime).

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 17

ChallengesfortheGrimesCampaign.Perhapsoneofthegreatestrhetoricalchallenges

oftheGrimescampaignaroseafterGrimesrefusedtoadmitifshevotedforObamain2008or

2012,claimingIrespectthesanctityoftheballotbox(Gerth,2014,para.3).McConnells

campaignshifteditsmessagefromclaimsthatGrimeswaslyingaboutherstanceoncoal(n=4)

andreportingonarecentFoxNewspoll(n=1)toemphasizetheassociationbetweenGrimes

andObama(n=2).Grimestweets,inturn,shiftedfrompromotingacampaigneventandher

stanceoneducation(n=2)toattackingMcConnell(n=3),tweetingDesperateforhelp,

@Team_MitchiscallinginhiscavalrytofloodKentucky'sairwaveswithfalseattacks.

#KYSen.Thecampaignthenencouragedfollowerstosignupforemailupdates(n=1)and

announcedanupcomingappearancewithformerSec.ofStateHillaryClinton(n=1).

TheGrimescampaignfacedanotherchallengewhentheDemocraticSenatorial

CampaignCommitteedroppedfundedtelevisionadvertisementsonOct.15.Someclaimedthe

actionsignaledtheDSCClosingconfidenceinGrimeswhileotherssaidGrimesalreadyhad

sufficientfundsfortheremainderofthecampaign(Gerth,2014).Theannouncementfollowed

theKETdebateandGrimescampaignannouncingachievinganotherfundraisingrecord.After

theannouncement,GrimestweetsemphasizeleadsoverMcConnellinpollsandfunding(n=4),

garneringvotersupportandpromotingacampaigneventwithKentuckyAttorneyGeneralJack

ConwayandHillaryClinton(n=9),whileemphasizingGrimespotentialtobethefirstfemale

KentuckySenator(n=4).Similarly,McConnellscampaigndidnotaddressthedevelopment.

Rather,McConnellcampaigncontinuedassociatingherwiththeObamaadministration(n=3)

whileemphasizingMcConnellspotentialtobeapowerfulvoiceforKentuckyasthenext

MajorityLeader(n=1).

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 18

AchievementsfortheGrimesCampaign.OnOct.15,GrimesoutraisedMcConnell

andwasjoinedthefollowingdayforaLouisvillecampaigneventbyHillaryClinton.As

previouslydiscussed,tweetsduringthistimeframeshiftedslightlyfromfocusingonGrimes

performanceintheKETdebate,attackingMcConnellonhisrecord,andherowneconomy

stancetofocusprimarilyoncampaignevents.However,Grimesconsistentlyattacked

McConnellsrecord,emphasizedfundraising,andpromotedherownstancesontheeconomy

andwomensissues.McConnellusedClintonsvisittocontinuetoassociateGrimeswithObama

andhisfailedliberalagendadespitehertryingtohidethatsheisreallyanObamaliberal(n

=3).

AnothertriumphcamefortheGrimescampaignwhenshewasendorsedbybothThe

CourierJournalandTheLexingtonHeraldLeaderonOct.26,mentionedbytheGrimes

campaign.Priortotheannouncement,Grimestweetsincludedvoterexpressedsupport(n=1),

UKfootball(n=1)andattackingMcConnellsstanceonfundingsocialsecurityand

contributingfundstohisowncampaign(n=2).Fourtweetsdiscussedtheendorsementsother

tweetsfollowingtheannouncementfocusedoncampaignevents(n=5),attackingMcConnells

stanceonwomensissues(n=1)andwishingSen.Clintonahappybirthday.Duringthesame

timeframe,McConnellemphasizedhissupportforcoal(n=1),anupcomingcampaignevent(n

=4),andGrimesvotingrecord(n=1).

EventsforBothCampaigns.Duringtheelectionseason,thetwocandidatesmetfor

onlyonedebate,hostedbyKentuckyEducationalTelevision(KET),onOct.14.Grimestweets

eitherdirectlyfocusedonoralludedtothedebate(n=12)morethanMcConnell(n=5).

GrimestweetsattackedMcConnellsdebateperformanceandrecord,whiletoutingherown

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 19performanceinthedebate:Alisonknockeditoutofthepark.Thepositivereviewskeep

coming!#kysen.TheMcConnellcampaignmentionedhisdebateperformance(n=2)and

focusedonGrimessilenceoncoal(@AlisonForKYwasmumoncoalto@HarryReid.Notone

singleword)whiletoutingMcConnellsownrecordoncoal(n=2).Thecampaignfurther

attackedGrimesforherrefusaltodiscusshervotingbehavior(n=6),aswellasherjobsplan(n

=1).

ABluegrassPollonOct.20placedMcConnellaheadofGrimesinadeadheat,with

McConnellleadingbyonepointthesamepollhadGrimesleadingbytwopercentagepoints

onlytwoweeksprior.McConnellscampaigndidnotaddresstheresults.Rather,thecampaign

highlightedupcomingcampaigneventsincoalcountrywithCongressmanHalRogersjoining

thecampaigninPikeville(n=15)andemphasizedMcConnellsprocoalstance(n=4).The

McConnellcampaignalsotweetedanendorsementfromtheBowlingGreenDailyNewsandan

attackonGrimesminimumwagepolicy.Grimes,conversely,usedthepollresultstoencourage

supporterstodonate(n=2)andemphasizeinterestsgroupsroleinMcConnellscampaign(RT

@KyDems:Newpro@Team_Mitchmailerconcedeswhatwevealwaysknown:MitchisFor

Saletooutsidespecialinterests).Grimestweetsalsopromotedacampaignevents,onewith

PresidentBillClinton(n=18),whilejokingaboutMcConnellsformercampaignmanagerand

rumorsthattheMcConnellcampaignpaidindividualstoattendcampaignrallies(n=1).

LeadinguptoNov.4,Grimescontinuedtopromotecampaigneventsandretweet

voterexpressedsupport(n=24).OnElectionDay,themajorityoftweetswerevoterexpressed

support(n=174)whileothertweetsfocusedonturnout(n=5).ThefinaltweetfortheGrimes

campaigninoursampleshowedherconcedingtoMcConnellandthankingsupporters.Similarly,

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 20priortoElectionDay,McConnellstweets(n=12)focusedoncampaigneventsand

voterexpressedsupport.OnElectionDay,McConnellstweets(n=99)focusedon

voterexpressedsupport,turnout,andresultsannouncingMcConnellsreelection.Onlyone

tweetfocusedonMcConnellsstanceoncoalandoneattackedGrimesassociationwithObama.

ResearchQuestion2

Oursecondquestioninquiredfocusedonthetoneofthetweetsthroughoutthe

progressionofthehighprofileSenatecontest.Toanswerthisquestion,wefirstdividedthe

remaining88daysofthecampaignintothreephases:early(Sept.3Sept.30),mid(Oct.1

Oct.27),andlate(Oct.28Nov.4).Toexaminehowthetoneofthecampaignvariedbyeach

stageofthecampaign,weemployedacomparisonofthemeans.ForMcConnell,wefoundthe

campaignwaslargelymorepositiveinthefinalweekofthecampaign(M=.95,SD=.3)

comparedtotheearlystage(M=.28,SD=.95)andmidstage(M=.24,SD=.97).Resultsfor

Grimeswerecomparable.Thecampaignwasmorepositiveinthelatestageofthecampaign(M

=.96,SD=.3)thanintheearlystage(M=.24,SD=.92)andmidstage(M=.26,SD=.95).

Hypothesis

TodetermineifthegroupsdifferedsignificantlyintheirtoneonTwitter,wecompared

themeansoftheoveralltoneofbothcampaignsmessagesoverthecourseofthecampaign.

FindingsshowedMcConnellstweetswereslightlymorepositive(M=.62,SD=.78)than

Grimestweets(M=.56,SD=.8),respectively.Becauselittledifferencewasobservedbetween

thetoneofeachcampaignstweets,ourhypothesiswassupported.

ResearchQuestion3

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 21

Toexaminethelevelsofengagementrelativetothetoneofthetweet,wetreatedthetone

asanominalvariable(positive,negative,orneutral)asthisapproachpermittedustocomparethe

averagelevelofengagementbasedoneachtone.Acomparisonofthemeansshowedfollowers

engagedmostwithnegativetweets(M=153.6,SD=131.4),followedbyneutraltweets(M=

96.5,SD=78.9).Followersengagedleastwithpositivetweets(M=68.2,SD=85.5).

Discussion

ThefindingsfromthisresearchsupportHerrnsons(2012)claimthatcontemporary

campaignsusewebsitesandsocialmediatorecruitvolunteersandprovidesupporterswith

information,suchashowtoregistertovoteorlocatingtheirpollingplace.Additionally,our

findingsshowthatthecampaigns,tovariousdegrees,adaptthecontentoftheirmessagesbased

oneventsthatoccurduringtheraces.Whenfacedwithachallenge,suchasgaffebythe

candidateorthecampaign,bothcampaignsignoredtheissue,alteringthenarrativetoattacktheir

opponent,rallythetroopsthroughencouragingfundraising,promotingupcomingcampaign

events,ordistinguishingtheirissuestancefromtheiropponents.

Asonemayexpect,bothcandidateshighlightedpositivemomentsfortheircampaigns,

particularlyregardingpollresults,thoughGrimesdidsomorethanMcConnell.Grimes

emphasisofpositiveevents,particularlypollresults,canbeexplainedassheenteredthe

candidateassomewhatofanunderdog,comingupagainstawellknownlongtimeincumbent.

McConnell,comparatively,chosetofocusextensivelyonhisongoingnarrativeassociating

GrimeswithPresidentObama,capitalizingonthePresidentslackofpopularityinKentucky.

McConnellsGrimes=Obamanarrativecategorizedinfiltratedhiscampaignspremise,as

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 22exemplifiedbythesloganObamaneedsGrimesKentuckyneedsMcConnell(Youngman,

2014).

Oneinterestingfindingfromthisstudyisthatthecampaigntoneswerenotonlyoverall

positive,butweresignificantlymorepositiveinthefinalweekofthecampaignthaninthe

previoustwomonthsofcampaigning.Thisresultisconsistentwithpastliterature,whichclaims

candidatesusecommunicationplatformstoshowtheirpositiveattributesorencouragefollowers

(Cho&Benoit,2005Parmelee&Bichard,2012).AccordingtoParmelee&Bichard(2012),

evencampaigntweetsthatshowacandidaterootingforacertainsportsteam,asGrimesdidfor

theUniversityofKentuckyWildcats,demonstratehowacandidatetriestobeapersonification

ofsocietyandwinindependentvotes(p.204).Thisfindingisparticularlyinterestinggiventhe

amountofresearchaimedatthenegativityofpoliticalcampaignadvertising(e.g.Bartels,2000

Geer,1998Mayer,1996)andclaimsbyAnsolabhereandIyengar(1995)thatsuchadvertising

negativelyimpactsvoterparticipationandisolatestheelectorate.Ourresearch,however,is

limitedinthatwedidnotexaminehowuseofTwitterimpactsvoterengagementorparticipation.

WhiletheoveralltoneofbothTwitteraccountswasmorepositivethannegative,data

showsindividualsengagedmorewithnegativetweets.Thisfindingcomplementsotherstudies

thatsuggestsocialmediausersarerelentlesslynegativeaboutpolitics(Fitzpatrick,2012,para.

2).Thisfindingemphasizesthatindividualsseemmorewillingtoexpressnegativeviews,and

evenattackothersonsocialmedia,duetoanonymityoraperceiveddistanceaffordedby

computermediatedcommunication(Parmelee&Bichard,2012).Suchafindingpotentially

raisesconcernsforasocietyincreasinglyreliantonsocialmediaeffectsthatarelikelyto

affectpoliticalparticipationandengagement.First,someindividualsfearsocialmediawill

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 23increasepoliticalisolation(Anderson&Rainie,2010Johnson,Bichard,&Zhang,2009).The

Internetaffordsindividualsachannelthroughwhichtheycanpersonalizeandtherebylimit

theinformationtheyreceive,resultinginindividualsreceivinginformationthatservesto

reinforcetheirownworldviews,increasingpoliticalisolation.However,suchclaimsmaybe

unsubstantiatedas41percentofsurveyedTwitterusersclaimtofollowpoliticalleaderswith

whomtheydisagree,makingitit is hard to say that Twitter is making most users shut themselves

off from diverse views(Parmelee&Bichard,2012,p.137).

Onetheoreticalperspectivethatmayproveusefulinexaminingwhyindividualschoose

tonotonlyfollowpoliticalleaders,butalsoengagewithcertaintweets,isusesandgratifications

theory.AsParmelee&Bichard(2012)suggest,someindividualsmaybedrawntoTwitterfor

informationalpurposes,usingtheseaccountsasanewssource.Usesandgratificationstheory

assumesthatindividualsareactive,ratherthanpassiveusersofvariousmedia(Rubin,2009),

whichappliesdirectlytosocialmediabasedonitsengagingformat.AsParmelee&Bichard

(2012)note,Twitteruserscanbeactiveintheinformationtheyreceive,byretweeting,replying,

ortweetingaboutit.Usesandgratificationstheorytakesagoalorientedapproach,assumingthat

individualshavemotivesforusingmediaandselectingwhichform(s)theyengagein.Usesand

gratificationstheoryalsoaccountsfortheaforementionedfearvoicedbyscholars(e.g.Anderson

&Rainie,2010Johnson,etal.,2009)thatindividualswillchoose,toacertaindegree,the

messagestheyencounter.Parmelee&Bichard(2012)contend,intermsofpoliticalTwitteruse,

itislogicaltoassumethatpeoplehaveagoalinmindwhentheymaketheefforttoseekoutand

followpoliticalleaderstweets(p.36).Twitter,however,notonlyallowsuserstofollow

politicalleaderstweets,butalsoengagewiththem.

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 24

However,thefactthataudiencesareengagingwiththecontent,regardlessofitstheme,

givesussomehoperegardingonlineformsofpoliticalparticipation.Researchisfullof

dishearteningfindingsaboutthelackofpoliticalengagement,decreasesinvoterturnout,and

increasedcynicism,particularlyamongyoungadults(e.g.Bartels,2000Bennett,1997Tedesco,

2004).However,becauseyoungcitizensarethelargestgrouptoreportfrequentaccesstothe

Internet,youngvotershaveindicatedtheyaremorelikelytousetheInternetthantraditional

mediaforpoliticalinformation(Tedesco,2004,p.521).Arecentstudyfound45percentof

U.S.adultswhoconsumenewsonTwitterareyoungadults,ages18to29(Gao,2013).

LimitationsandFutureDirections:WhereDoWeGoFromHere?

Itisimportanttonoteafewlimitationsofthisbicresearch.First,thefindingsreflectonly

onehighprofileSenatecampaignoverthecourseofthreemonths.Further,thisparticular

campaignwasamarqueecampaignsoresultsmaynotbegeneralizabletoothercampaigns.

Second,thesetweetswerecollectedonlyover88days,ratherthanoverthecourseoftheentire

campaignandtherefore,reflectinteractionandcontentonlyduringthefinalstagesofthecontest.

Third,thisthedatawascodedbytheresearchers,whichcouldpotentiallyresultinanexpectancy

bias,thoughcautionwastakingincodingthedatatoavoidthispotentialthreat.

Comparedtomoretraditionalformsofcampaigncommunication,suchas

advertisements,socialmediaisanewarea,ripeforabundantresearchopportunities.Future

researchshouldexpandthesampletoincludeadditionalcampaignTwitteraccountsfroma

varietyoflevels.ExaminingadditionalcampaignTwitteraccounts,frombothcongressional

bodies,aswellasreplicationofstudies,wouldhelpincreasethevalidityoffindings.Second,

thesefindingsreflectdatacollectedfromoneformofsocialmediafutureresearchshouldfocus

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 25onothersocialmediasites,includingFacebook,whichallowsuserstocommentonstatuses

postedbythecampaign,whichmayreflectgreaterengagementandinteractionwithfollowers.

AsVergeerandHermans(2013)pointout,Twitterisonlyonetoolusedbyacampaignoutof

themanywhichareavailabletocandidatesandisarguablynotthesinglemostimportant

mediumofcommunicationavailable.Therefore,itisimportanttoexamineothermodesof

communication(e.g.websites,Facebook).

AssuggestedbyLaMarreandLambrecht(2013),itisimportantthatresearchcontinues

toexploreandunderstandtheprocessesofparticipatoryplatforms.Additionally,otherformsof

researchmayprovebeneficialtoprovidingadeeperunderstandingoftheprocessesandeffects

ofparticipatoryformsofmediainpoliticalcampaigns.Indepthinterviewswithcandidatesand

campaignstafferswouldprovidegreaterinsightintothedecisionsbehindthecontentpostedon

socialmediaandcouldprovidetriangulationwithotherformsofdata,suchascontentanalysis

(Levenshus,2010).

Twitterservesasavehiclethroughwhichmanypoliticiansmaybeabletoreachalarger

audiencethancouldbereachedthroughtraditionalmedia(Parmelee&Bichard,2012).Dueto

continuedgrowth,onecannothelpbutwonderwhatimpactsocialmediawillhaveon

democracy,includingpoliticaleducationandparticipation.Thus,itisimperativethatfuture

studiescontinuetoexploretheusesandeffectsofsocialmediainthepoliticalrealm,particularly

duringhighinformationseekingtimesssuchaselections.

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 26

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Appendix

Table1

FrequencyofCampaignThemesonOfficialTwitterAccounts

TweetThemeMcConnell Grimes

f % f %Issue 12 4 43 6.5Campaign 232 78 474 72DirectAttack 51 17 126 19Other 3 1 14 2Table2

OverviewofKeyCampaignEventDates

Date KeyEventSeptember7 McConnellextendsleadpastGrimesinNBC/Maristpoll

September22 TrumpendorsesMcConnellforspeakeroftheHouse

October6 BluegrassPollshowsMcConnellbehindGrimes

October9 Grimesrefusestodiscusshervotingrecord

October14 KEThoststelevisedMcConnellGrimesdebate

October15DemocraticSenatorialCampaignCommitteehaltsGrimescampaignfunding

October15 GrimesoutraisesMcConnell

October16 HillaryClintonbeginscampaigningforGrimes

October21 BluegrassPollshowsGrimesandMcConnellinadeadheat

October24 McConnellputsin$1.8millionofhisownmoney

October26 GrimesendorsedbyTheCourierJournalandTheHeraldLeaderOctober30 FinalBluegrassPollshowsMcConnellwith5pointlead

November4 ElectionDay

BLUEGRASSBATTLE 34

AppendixA:FrequencyofTweetThemesbyCategory

McConnell GrimesCandidatesPolicyStance CandidatesPolicyStanceCoal 11 Economy 9Agriculture 1 Education 7PersonalRecord 3 Healthcare 4 Women 18 CampaignAnnouncements CampaignAnnouncementsDebate 5 Concession 3ElectionResults 12 Debate 19Event 58 DistinguishingfromOpponent 5Fundraising 2 DistancingfromPartyLeaders 2PollResults 11 Endorsement 29SupportAffiliatedGroup 2 Event 115SupportVoters 82 Fundraising 10Turnout 30 PollResults 9Volunteer 2 SupportVoters 194 SupportCampaignInitiated 73Endorsement 1 Turnout 8SupportCampaignInitiated 26 Volunteer 21 AttackCampaigning AttackCampaigningAttackonCampaignAction 2 AttackonCampaignAction 28AttackonCampaignRhetoric 9 AttackonCampaignRhetoric 9AttackonIssueStance 11 AttackonIssueStance 32AssociatingOpponentwithPresidentObama

25 AttackonOpponentsRecord 17

AttackonOpponentsCharacter

27

TrumpReferences 5NonCampaignRelated NonCampaignRelated ConstitutionDay 1 Other 10Other 4 UniversityofKentucky

Football2