balaji project

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Executive Summary

The main aim of the investor is to minimize the risk involved in investment &

maximize the return. Today there are number of options available to investor like Post

Office investment, Bank Deposit, Insurance, Mutual Fund, Stock Market etc...

Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast

the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily

price and volume.

This project is about a brief introduction to Technical Analysis, different price

patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit that patterns.etc… The

contents in this project are made simple so as to make a layman understands the terms

used in the Technical Analysis.

The core area of this project focuses what a technical analysts may employ models

and trading rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the Relative

Strength Index, moving averages, through recognition of chart patterns. This project

contains some elementary statistics which are used in calculation which help in

drawing inferences.

The objective of the study helps to predict or forecast the short, intermediate & long

term price movements. When to buy and sell stock by analyzing technical indicators.

And helps to measure to the rate of change between the current price and price in

past and to identify overbought& oversold region. The art of technical analysis for it

is an art is to identify trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment an

investment posture until the weight of the evidence indicates that the trend has been

reversed.

Technical Analysis also provides a comprehensive study on stock historical price

charts and predicts the future trend in the market. But still there is much controversial

opinion on the validity of technical trading rule. It requires more study to prove the

usefulness of technical analysis in investor’s buy/sell/hold decision making.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 1


INTRODUCTION

ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast

the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily

price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price

behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects all relevant

factors before an investor becomes aware of them through other channels.

Technical analysts may employ models and trading rules based, for example, on price

transformations, such as the Relative Strength Index, moving averages, regressions,

inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through

recognition of chart patterns.

General description

Technical analysts (or technicians) seek to identify price patterns and trends in

financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. While technicians use various

methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search

for archetypal patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders reversal pattern,

and also study such indicators as price, volume, and moving averages of the price.

Many technical analysts also follow indicators of investor psychology.

Critics argue that these 'patterns' are simply random effects on which humans impose

causation. They state that human see patterns that aren't there and then ascribe value

to them.

Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically mathematical

transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine

whether an asset is trending, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians also look for

relationships between price, volume, and in the case of futures, open interest.

Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD. Other avenues of study



include correlations between changes in options [implied volatility] and put/call ratios

with price.

Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that large gains from successful

trades exceed more numerous but smaller losing trades, producing positive returns in

the long run through proper risk control and money management.

Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study of

economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial markets.

Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influences before

investors are aware of them, hence the study of price action alone. Some traders use

technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make

trading decisions.

Lack of evidence

Critics of technical analysis include well known fundamental analysts. For example,

Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts are great for predicting the past." Warren

Buffet has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts

upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was

to the game, the richest people would be librarians”.

Most academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive power, but some

studies say it may produce excess returns. For example, measurable forms of technical

analysis, such as non-linear prediction using neural networks, have been shown to

occasionally produce statistically significant prediction results. A Federal Reserve

working paper regarding support and resistance levels in short-term foreign exchange

rates "offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend

interruptions," although the "predictive power" of those levels was "found to vary

across the exchange rates and firms examined."



Efficient market hypothesis

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) contradicts the basic tenets of technical

analysis, by stating that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict future prices.

Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. Economist Eugene Fame

published the seminal paper on the EMH in the Journal of Finance in 1970, and said

"In short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is extensive, and

contradictory evidence is sparse”. EMH advocates say that if prices quickly reflect all

relevant information, no method (including technical analysis) can "beat the market."

Developments which influence prices occur randomly and are unknowable in

advance.

Technicians say that EMH ignores the way markets work, in that many investors base

their expectations on past earnings or track record, for example. Because future stock

prices can be strongly influenced by investor expectations, technicians claim it only

follows that past prices influence future prices.

Random walk hypothesis

The random walk hypothesis may be derived from the weak-form efficient markets

hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that market participants take full

account of any information contained in past price movements."The problem is that

once such regularity is known to market participants, people will act in such a way

that prevents it from happening in the future”.

History

The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets

over hundreds of years. The oldest known example of technical analysis was a method

used by Japanese traders as early as the 18th century, which evolved into the use of

candlestick techniques, and is today a main charting tool. Many more technical tools

and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, with an increasing

emphasis on computer-assisted techniques.



Principles of technical analysis

Technicians say that a market's price reflects all relevant information, so their analysis

looks more at "internals" than at "externals" such as news events. Price action also

tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend toward patterned behavior --

hence technicians' focus on identifiable trends and conditions.

Market action discounts everything

On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the cause of

the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on adjacent days also fail

to reveal any convincing accounts of why future profits or discount rates might have

changed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted for these

significant market moves is difficult to reconcile with the view that such shocks

account for most of the variation in stock returns.

Prices move in trends

Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets trend up,

down, or sideways (flat). An example of a security that had an apparent trend is AOL

from November 2001 through August 2002. A technical analyst or trend follower

recognizing this trend would look for opportunities to sell this security. AOL

consistently moves downward in price. Each time the stock rose, sellers would enter

the market and sell the stock; hence the "zig-zag" movement in the price. In other

words, each time the stock edged lower, it fell below its previous relative low price.

History tends to repeat itself

Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the

investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to charting, yet is

always concerned with price trends. For example, many technicians monitor surveys

of investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine whether a

trend will continue or if a reversal could develop; they are most likely to anticipate a

change when the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.



Rule-based trading

Rule-based trading is an approach to make one's trading plans by strict and clear-cut

rules. Unlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it defines a

set of rules that determines all trades, leaving minimal discretion. For instance, a

trader might make a set of rules stating that he will take a long position whenever the

price of a particular instrument closes above its 50-day moving average, and shorting

it whenever it drops below.

Combining Technical Analysis with other Market Forecast Methods

John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets", says that the

principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and open

interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are considered

secondary. Technical analysis is also often combined with quantitative analysis and

economics. For example, neural networks may be used to help identify inter market

relationships. A few market forecasters combine financial astrology with technical

analysis.

Charting terms and indicators

Widely-known technical analysis concepts include:

Breakout - when a price passes through and stays above an area of support or

resistance

Commodity Channel Index - identifies cyclical trends

Momentum - the rate of price change

Moving average - lags behind the price action

Relative Strength Index (RSI) - oscillator showing price strength

Resistance - an area that brings on increased selling



AN OVERVIEW OF STOCK MARKET:

A stock market is a private or public market for the trading of company stock and

derivatives of company stock at an agreed price; both of these are securities listed on

a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.

Definition:

The expression 'stock market' refers to the market that enables the trading of company

stocks (collective shares), other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are still

traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market known as the bond

market. Commodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives are traded in

a variety of markets (but, like bonds, mostly 'over-the-counter').

Market participants:

Many years ago, worldwide, buyers and sellers were individual investors, such as

wealthy businessmen, with long family histories to particular corporations. Over time,

markets have become more "institutionalized"; buyers and sellers are largely

institutions (e.g., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hedge funds,

investor groups, and banks).

The rise of the institutional investor has brought with it some improvements in market

operations. Thus, the government was responsible for "fixed" fees being markedly

reduced for the 'small' investor, but only after the large institutions had managed to

break the brokers' solid front on fees (they then went to 'negotiated' fees, but only for

large institutions).



Importance of stock market:

1. Function and purpose:

The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money.

This allows businesses to go public, or raise additional capital for expansion. The

liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to quickly and easily

sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks, compared to other

less liquid investments such as real estate.

2. Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system:

The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable

transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the

funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead

of being routed via banks' traditional lending and deposit operations. The general

public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through

mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. Statistics show that in

recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households'

financial assets in many countries.

3. The Stock Market, individual investors & financial risk:

Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the

associated increased risks. Stock prices fluctuate widely, in marked contrast to the

stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is something that could affect not only the

individual investor or household, but also the economy on a large scale. This is

certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market,

or have acquired other 'risky' investments.

Irrational behavior:

Sometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic news, even if that news

has no real affect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the stock



market can be swayed tremendously in either direction by press releases, rumors,

euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be

battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock

market difficult to predict.

4. The Crashes:

A stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of equities listed

on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for stock

market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up with

speculative economic bubbles.

Stock market index:

The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price

indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P, the FTSE

and the Euro next indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization (the total

market value of floating capital of the company) weighted, with the weights reflecting

the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are reviewed

frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the changing business

environment.

Derivative instruments:

Financial innovation has brought many new financial instruments whose pay-offs or

values depend on the prices of stocks. Some examples are exchange-traded funds

(ETFs), stock index and stock options, equity swaps, single-stock futures, and stock

index futures. These last two may be traded on futures exchanges (which are distinct

from stock exchanges—their history traces back to commodities futures exchanges),

or traded over-the-counter. As all of these products are only derived from stocks, they

are sometimes considered to be traded in a (hypothetical) derivatives market, rather

than the (hypothetical) stock market.



Leveraged Strategies:

Stock that a trader does not actually own may be traded using short selling; margin

buying may be used to purchase stock with borrowed funds; or, derivatives may be

used to control large blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money than

would be required by outright purchase or sale.

1. Short selling:

In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its

clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the

market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making

money if the price fell in the meantime or losing money if it rose. Exiting a short

position by buying back the stock is called "covering a short position." This strategy

may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lower the price of a stock.

Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how

a short sale can occur.

2. Margin buying:

In margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes for

it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the

borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can be a

maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks' value. A margin call is made

if the total value of the investor's account cannot support the loss of the trade.

Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was implemented after

the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as

10 percent (or even less) of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased.



New issuance:

Global issuance of equity and equity-related instruments totaled $505 billion in 2004,

a 29.8% increase over the $389 billion raised in 2003. Initial public offerings (IPOs)

by US issuers increased 221% with 233 offerings that raised $45 billion, and IPOs in

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) increased by 333%, from $ 9 billion to $39

billion.

Investment strategies:

One of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is, "How

do I make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two basic

methods are classified as either fundamental analysis or technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis refers to analyzing companies by their financial statements

found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions, etc. Technical

analysis studies price actions in markets through the use of charts and quantitative

techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the company's financial

prospects.

Taxation:

According to each national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations must

be respected regarding capital gains, and taxes are charged by the state over the

transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock

exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdiction to

jurisdiction because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already

incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies pay to the

state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic growth.



RESEARCH DESIGN:

Research design is the blue print of the study. It provides a framework under which

the research has been conducted. It includes title of the study, problem statement,

objectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and

interpretation and an overview of chapter scheme.

2.1 Title of the Project

A Study on Technical analysis of cement sector in India.

2.2 Statement of Problem

Technical analysts (or technicians) seek to identify price patterns and trends in

financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns; the main problem is that these

patterns are simply random effects on which humans impose causation.

2.3 Review of Literature

Neftci (1991) showed that few of the rules used in technical analysis generate well-

defined techniques of forecasting, but even well –defined rules are shown to be

useless in prediction if the economic times series in Gaussain. How ever, if the

processes under consideration are nonlinear, then the rules might capture some

information. Tests showed that this may indeed to be the case for the following

average rule.

Taylor and Allen (1992) report the results of the survey among chief foreigner

exchange dealer based in London in November 1988 and found that at least 90

percent of respondent placed some weights on technical analysis and that there was

skew towards using technical, rather than fundamental analysis at shorter time

horizons.

In a comprehensive and influential study Brock, Lakonishok and Lebaron (1992)

analyzed 26 technical trading rules using 90 years of daily stock prices from the Dow

Jones industrial average up to 1987 and found that they all outperformed market.



Blume, Easiey and O’ Hara (1994) show that volume provides information on

information quality that cannot be deducted from price. They also show that traders

who use information contained in market statistics do better than traders who do not

Kavajecz and Odders – White (2004) show that support and resistance levels coincide

with peaks in depth on the limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal

information about the relative position of depth on the book. They also show that

these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the

limit order book

2.4 Objective of Study

1. To find out the accuracy of technical analysis in individual stock price prediction.

2. To determine the trend of the stock prices using technical analysis.

3. To predict the future share price movements of particular scripts.

2.5 Scope of the Study

Technical analysis is widely used by forex, equity, and commodity traders, to

determine the short term as well as the long term trends of the market. The scope of

technical analysis is increasing every day, as more and more people are trying to learn

the skills of technical analysis to earn good returns.

2.6 Methodology

The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. Closing prices of

scripts were collected through National Stock Exchange website. The data employed

in this study comprises of five year observations on the Cement Sector companies’

Closing price.



SECONDARY DATA:

Secondary data refers to those data that has already been collected and

analyzed by someone else. In other words secondary data is the information

that already exists somewhere having been collected for another purpose. It this

study secondary data was collected from various sources like:

Web sites

Text Books

Business magazines.



2.7 Statistical Tools Used in Analysis of Study:

1. Moving Average.

2. Relative strength index.

1) Moving Average.

Moving average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over

a period of time. To find the 50-day moving average you would add up the closing

prices (but not always…more later) from the past 50 days and divide them by 50. And

because prices are constantly changing it means the moving average will move as

well.

The most commonly used moving averages are the 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200-day

averages. Each moving average provides a different interpretation on what the stock

price will do. Moving averages with different time spans each tell a different story.

The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the moving average will be to price

changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive or the more smoothed the

moving average will be. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a

trend and smooth out price and volume fluctuations or that can confuse interpretation.

The general assumption behind all moving averages is that once the stock price moves

above the average it may have substantial momentum behind it and is worth buying.

The opposite is true if the price of a security moves below the moving average.

Typically, when a stock price moves below its moving average it is a bad sign

because the stock is moving on a negative trend. The opposite is true for stocks that

exceed their moving average - in this case, hold on for the ride.


http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/


2) Relative strength index:

There are a few different tools that can be used to interpret the strength of a stock.

One of these is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a comparison between the

days that a stock finishes up and the days it finishes down. This indicator is a big tool

in momentum trading.

The RSI is a reasonably simple model that anyone can use. It is calculated using the

following formula.

RSI = 100 - [100/ (1 + RS)]

RS = (Avg. of n-day up closes)/(Avg. of n-day down closes)

The RSI ranges from 0 to 100. At around the 70 levels, a stock is considered

overbought and you should consider selling. In a bull market some believe that 80 is a

better level to indicate an overbought stock since stocks often trade at higher

valuations during bull markets. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, a stock is

considered oversold and you should consider buying. Again, make the adjustment to

20 in a bear market.

The smaller the number of days used, the more volatile the RSI is and the more often

it will hit extremes. A longer term RSI is more rolling, fluctuating a lot less. Different

sectors and industries have varying threshold levels when it comes to the RSI. Stocks

in some industries will go as high as 75-80 before dropping back, while others have a

tough time breaking past 70. A good rule is to watch the RSI over the long term (one

year or more) to determine at what level the historical RSI has traded and how the

stock reacted when it reached those levels.


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asp


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp



2.9 Overview of Report

Chapter scheme:

Chapter 1: Introduction

This chapter includes Introduction of Technical analysis and Cement sector.

Chapter 2: Research design

Research design is the blue print of the study. It provides a framework under which

the research has been conducted. It includes title of the study, problem statement,

objectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and

interpretation and an overview of chapter scheme.

Chapter 3: Industry profile

This chapter covers the industry profile.

Chapter 4: Analysis and Interpretation of data

This chapter includes the data collected for the purpose of research and the

interpretation of the data, tables and graphs are used wherever necessary.

Chapter 5: Summary of Findings, Conclusions &Recommendations

This chapter provides major findings and conclusions of the study for it also includes

the recommendation made by the researcher.

Bibliography

Annexure



3. INDUSTRY PROFILE

INTRODUCTION TO CEMENT SECTOR

India is today the second largest producer of cement in world with an installed

capacity of close to 155 million tonnes per year. 95 % is consumed domestically and

only 5% is exported. Demand is growing at more than 10 % per annum. More than

90 % of production comes from large cement plants. There are a total of 130 large and

more than 350 small cement manufacturing units in the country. More than 80% of

the cement-manufacturing units use modern environment friendly “dry” process.

The forms of cement produced:

Ordinary Portland Cement

Portland Pozzolana Cement

Portland Slag Cement

Blended Cement

Major players in Indian cement sector:

Heidelberg

Lafarge

Italcementi

Holcim

Gujrat Ambuja Cement

ACC

Ultratech Cement

India Cements

Century Cements

Jaypee Group



Madras Cements

Dalima cements

India’s per capita cement production: 130 kg per annum. World average of per capita

cement production: More than 280 kg per annum.

Bottlenecks of Cement Industry:

A comparison of the energy efficiency of Indian cement industry with that of

other developed nations shows Indian companies are lagging.

Regional imbalances in cement production.

High transportation cost involved.

I have taken five Cement Sector Companies which are as follows:

1. ACC

2. ULTRATECH.

3. GRASIM.

4.BIRLA SUPER

5.AMBUJA

1. ACC:

ACC Limited is India’s foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete

with a countrywide network of factories and marketing offices. Established in 1936,

ACC has been a pioneer and trendsetter in cement and concrete technology. ACC’s

brand name is synonymous with cement and enjoys a high level of equity in the

Indian market. It is the only cement company that figures in the list of Consumer

SuperBrands of India. Among the first companies in India to include commitment to

environment protection as a corporate objective, ACC has won several prizes and



accolades for environment friendly measures taken at its plants and mines. The

company has also been felicitated for its acts of good corporate citizenship.

ACC was the first recipient of ASSOCHAM’s first ever National Award for

outstanding performance in promoting rural and agricultural development activities in

1976. Decades later, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry selected ACC as

winner of its Good Corporate Citizen Award for the year 2002. Over the years, there

have been many awards and felicitations for achievements in Rural and community

development, Safety, Health, Tree plantation, afforestation, clean mining,

Environment awareness and protection.

2. ULTRATECH:

Ultratech Cement Limited, a Grasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of 17 million

tonnes. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Blast

Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzolana Cement.

UltraTech has five integrated plants, five grinding units and three terminals — two in

India and one in Sri Lanka. These include an integrated plant and two grinding units

of the erstwhile Narmada Cement Company Limited, a subsidiary, which has been

amalgamated with the company in May 2006.UltraTech is the country's largest

exporter of cement clinker. The company exports over 2.5 million tonnes per annum,

which is about 30 per cent of the country's total exports. The export markets span

countries around the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.

The cement division of L&T was demerged in 2004 after Grasim made the 30 per

cent open offer for equity shares, gaining control over the new company, christened

UltraTech. Ready Mix Concrete is likely to see substantial growth in the coming

years. Recognizing the opportunities that this business will offer, UltraTech has

commenced setting up of Ready Mix Concrete plants at various places in the country.

UltraTech's subsidiaries are: Dakshin Cements Limited and UltraTech Ceylinco

(Private) Limited.



3. GRASIM:

Grasim Industries Limited, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, ranks

among India's largest private sector companies, with consolidated net revenues of

Rs.141 billion and a consolidated net profit of Rs.20 billion(FY2007).

Starting as a textiles manufacturer in 1948, today Grasim's businesses comprise

viscose staple fiber (VSF), cement, sponge iron, chemicals and textiles. Its core

businesses are VSF and cement, which contribute to over 90 per cent of its venues and

operating profits.

The Aditya Birla Group is the world’s largest producer of VSF, commanding a 21 per

cent global market share. Grasim, with an aggregate capacity of 270,100 tpa has a

global market share of 11 per cent. It is also the second largest producer of caustic

soda (which is used in the production of VSF) in India.

In cement(grey cement and white cement), Grasim along with its subsidiary

UltraTech Cement Ltd. has a capacity of 30 million tpa and is a leading cement player

in India. In July 2004, Grasim acquired a majority stake and management control in

UltraTech Cement Limited. One of the largest of its kind in the cement sector, this

acquisition catapulted the Aditya Birla Group to the top of the league in India.

All of Grasim's units have earned ISO 9002 and 14001 certifications.

Product quality, innovation and eco-friendliness are a hallmark of all the company's

divisions.



4. BIRLA SUPPER

It is a unit of Grasim Birla Super Cement is a grinding unit of 1.5 Million Tons capacity with a modern technology manufacturing process involves a level of sophistication & new to the Cement industry.

The technology was supplied by 'Krupp Polysis" of Germany such as Roller Press, Grinding Mill. Electronic Packer enables for automatic packing & weighing of Cement Bags. Unloading of raw material (Clinker), which is being received from railway, Wagons are unloaded by atomised 'Wagon Tippler'. All the process of manufacturing and packing are atomized & is controlled through electronic devices & PLC at Central Control Rooms Plant, Packing Plant & Wagon Tippler. Three grades of Products i.e. OPC 43 Grade, OPC 53 & PPC are manufactured. The brand names of these qualities are 'Rajashree', 'Birla Super' & 'Birla Plus' respectively.

The plant power is connected to 132 KV Power supply of MSEB grid & having connected load of 12650 KW. All Electrical & Instruments equipment is of latest design & high efficiency. The unit has won the National Award for the "Excellence in Energy conservation" from the CII for the 2000-'00 & 2001-'02 consecutively for the outstanding saving in energy. The unit has bagged 'National Award' for 'Energy Conservation & Energy Management' organised by CII for twice i.e., 2000-'00 & 2001-'02. Management of 'Birla Super Cement' takes keen interest in reduction of 'energy cost' by implementing energy conservation activities and managing plant operating times to avail the maximum benefits from the State Electricity Board in 'Power factor', 'Night Consumption rebate& 'Bulk discount'.

Following are the major Environmental & Safety Activities done at our plant. • Inclusion of PPC grade Cement to utilize waste fly ash from power plant. • Atomized handling of fly ash through air tight tankers to avoid fugitive natural

escape of fly ash to environment. • Pneumatic unloading systems for dust free unloading of fly ash from tankers. • Installation of additional two dust collectors at W/T to avoid dust emission. • Installation of gypsum shed of 2*5000 MT to avoid land contamination. • Development of rain water harvesting reservoir. • Covering of belt conveyors to avoid dust emission during transportation



AMBUJA CEMENT

Ambuja Cements was set up in 1986. In the last decade the company has grown tenfold. The total cement capacity of the company is 18.5 million tonnes.

Its plants are some of the most efficient in the world. With environment protection measures that are on par with the finest in the developed world.

The company's most distinctive attribute, however, is its approach to the business. Ambuja follows a unique homegrown philosophy of giving people the authority to set their own targets, and the freedom to achieve their goals. This simple vision has created an environment where there are no limits to excellence, no limits to efficiency. And has proved to be a powerful engine of growth for the company.

As a result, Ambuja is the most profitable cement company in India, and one of the lowest cost producer of cement in the world.

environment policy is built around two simple truths. One, no cement plant can flourish at the cost of the environment. As one of the countrys largest producers of cement, with a large presence around the country, we have an obligation to protect the environment we function in.

Also, as we discovered, being environmentally conscious, almost never interfered with running a profitable business. In fact its quite the contrary.

Our efforts to achieve world standards in environment protection, for instance, have had the happy outcome of substantially improving efficiency and profitability. The fact is, a cleaner environment isnt just better for the people, it reduces wear and tear on plants and machinery as well. Thus directly contributing to the bottom line. Besides dust in cement plants is nothing but cement itself, which we capture and bag.

Our approach has made us the one of the worlds most environment friendly cement companys. And the most profitable.



4. ANALSIS AND DATA INTERPRETATION:

Calculation:

1) ACC Ltd: MOVEING AVERAGE

MONTH CLOSING PRICE

SUM OF 12 MONTHS AVERAGE

SUM OF 3 MONTHS AVERAGE

Apr-05 365.7May-05 380.0295Jun-05 379.965 115420 38473.33Jul-05 419.712 115511 38503.67

Aug-05 454.265 115603 38534.33Sep-05 476.661 115695 38565Oct-05 459.95 115787 38595.67Nov-05 491.927 115879 38626.33Dec-05 537.302 115970 38656.67Jan-06 550.105 116062 38687.33Feb-06 591.089 116154 38718Mar-06 746.45 5853.1555 487.763 116244 38748Apr-06 920.461 6407.9165 533.993 116334 38778

May-06 872.668 6900.555 575.0463 116423 38807.67Jun-06 746.121 7266.711 605.5593 116515 38838.33Jul-06 815.035 7662.034 638.5028 116606 38868.67

Aug-06 888.531 8096.3 674.6917 116698 38899.33Sep-06 950.759 8570.398 714.1998 116790 38930Oct-06 984.125 9094.573 757.8811 116882 38960.67Nov-06 1048.402 9651.048 804.254 116974 38991.33Dec-06 1071.675 10185.421 848.7851 117065 39021.67Jan-07 1063.631 10698.947 891.5789 117157 39052.33Feb-07 1005.389 11113.247 926.1039 117249 39083



Mar-07 774.149 11140.946 928.4122 117339 39113Apr-07 773.819 10994.304 916.192 117429 39143

May-07 873.429 10995.065 916.2554 117518 39172.67Jun-07 835.143 11084.087 923.6739 117610 39203.33Jul-07 1059.651 11328.703 944.0586 117701 39233.67

Aug-07 1000.509 11440.681 953.3901 117793 39264.33Sep-07 1124.04 11613.962 967.8302 117885 39295Oct-07 1144.627 11774.464 981.2053 117977 39325.67Nov-07 1061.566 11787.628 982.3023 118069 39356.33Dec-07 1053.104 11769.057 980.7548 118160 39386.67Jan-08 873.152 11578.578 964.8815 118252 39417.33Feb-08 774.209 11347.398 945.6165 118344 39448Mar-08 789.572 11362.821 946.9018 118435 39478.33Apr-08 809.955 11398.957 949.9131 118526 39508.67

May-08 694.103 11219.631 934.9693 118616 39538.67Jun-08 618.516 11003.004 916.917 118708 39569.33Jul-08 540.741 10484.094 873.6745 118799 39599.67

Aug-08 589.755 10073.34 839.445 118891 39630.33Sep-08 601.319 9550.619 795.8849 118983 39661Oct-08 515.392 8921.384 743.4487 119075 39691.67Nov-08 441.019 8300.837 691.7364 119167 39722.33Dec-08 467.342 7715.075 642.9229 119258 39752.67Jan-09 499.93 7341.853 611.8211 119350 39783.33Feb-09 545.61 7113.254 592.7712 119442 39814Mar-09 549.44 6873.122 572.7602 119532 39844Apr-09 620.388 6683.555 556.9629 119622 39874

May-09 680.067 6669.519 555.7933 119711 39903.67Jun-09 808.976 6859.979 571.6649 119803 39934.33Jul-09 808.0152 7127.2532 593.9378 119894 39964.67

Aug-09 823.126 7360.6242 613.3854 119986 39995.33Sep-09 802.297 7561.6022 630.1335 120078 40026Oct-09 821.678 7867.8882 655.6574 120170 40056.67Nov-09 748.605 8175.4742 681.2895 120262 40087.33Dec-09 838.564 8546.6962 712.2247 120353 40117.67Jan-10 922.207 8968.9732 747.4144 120445 40148.33Feb-10 886.24 9309.6032 775.8003 120537 40179Mar-10 970.09 9730.2532 810.8544 120627 40209



2.)RSI

MONTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSSApr-05 365.7

May-05 380.0295 14.3295Jun-05 379.965 0.0645Jul-05 419.712 39.747

Aug-05 454.265 34.553Sep-05 476.661 22.396Oct-05 459.95 16.711Nov-05 491.927 31.977Dec-05 537.302 45.375Jan-06 550.105 12.803Feb-06 591.089 40.984Mar-06 746.45 155.361Apr-06 920.461 174.011

May-06 872.668 47.793Jun-06 746.121 126.547

MONTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSSJul-06 815.035

Aug-06 888.531 73.496Sep-06 950.759 62.228Oct-06 984.125 33.366Nov-06 1048.402 64.277Dec-06 1071.675 23.273Jan-07 1063.631 8.044Feb-07 1005.389 58.242Mar-07 774.149 231.24

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

SUM 571.5365 191.1155 AVERAGE 38.10243 12.74103 RS 29.9114 RSI 96.76495

26


Apr-07 773.819 0.33May-07 873.429 99.61Jun-07 835.143 38.286Jul-07 1059.651 224.508

Aug-07 1000.509 59.142Sep-07 1124.04 123.531


MONTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSSOct-07 1144.627Nov-07 1061.566 83.061Dec-07 1053.104 8.462Jan-08 873.152 179.952Feb-08 774.209 98.943Mar-08 789.572 15.363Apr-08 809.955 20.383

May-08 694.103 115.852Jun-08 618.516 75.587Jul-08 540.741 77.775

Aug-08 589.755 49.014Sep-08 601.319 11.564Oct-08 515.392 85.927Nov-08 441.019 74.373Dec-08 467.342 26.323




MONTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSSJan-09 499.93Feb-09 545.61 45.68Mar-09 549.44 3.83Apr-09 620.388 70.948

May-09 680.067 59.679Jun-09 808.976 128.909Jul-09 808.0152 0.9608




28


ULTRATECH

MOVING AVERAGE

MONTHCLOSING PRICE

SUM OF 12 MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3 MONTHS AVG

Apr-05 355.14May-05 337.986Jun-05 327.613 1020.739 340.2463Jul-05 370.587 1036.186 345.3953

Aug-05 406.115 1104.315 368.105Sep-05 451.978 1228.68 409.56Oct-05 425.4 1283.493 427.831Nov-05 448.335 1325.713 441.9043Dec-05 435.936 1309.671 436.557Jan-06 488.197 1372.468 457.4893Feb-06 569.171 1493.304 497.768Mar-06 616.834 5233.292 436.1077 1674.202 558.0673Apr-06 767.386 5645.538 470.4615 1953.391 651.1303

May-06 718.711 6026.263 502.1886 2102.931 700.977Jun-06 644.582 6343.232 528.6027 2130.679 710.2263Jul-06 704.89 6677.535 556.4613 2068.183 689.3943

Aug-06 751.379 7022.799 585.2333 2100.851 700.2837Sep-06 828.345 7399.166 616.5972 2284.614 761.538Oct-06 877.75 7851.516 654.293 2457.474 819.158Nov-06 893.82 8297.001 691.4168 2599.915 866.6383Dec-06 999.32 8860.385 738.3654 2770.89 923.63Jan-07 1088.893 9461.081 788.4234 2982.033 994.011Feb-07 1005.434 9897.344 824.7787 3093.647 1031.216Mar-07 788.731 10069.241 839.1034 2883.058 961.0193Apr-07 769.18 10071.035 839.2529 2563.345 854.4483

May-07 816.816 10169.14 847.4283 2374.727 791.5757Jun-07 822.961 10347.519 862.2933 2408.957 802.9857Jul-07 926.168 10568.797 880.7331 2565.945 855.315

Aug-07 891.956 10709.374 892.4478 2641.085 880.3617Sep-07 1006.773 10887.802 907.3168 2824.897 941.6323Oct-07 1058.839 11068.891 922.4076 2957.568 985.856Nov-07 993.4 11168.471 930.7059 3059.012 1019.671Dec-07 988.634 11157.785 929.8154 3040.873 1013.624Jan-08 902.837 10971.729 914.3108 2884.871 961.6237Feb-08 876.923 10843.218 903.6015 2768.394 922.798Mar-08 827.036 10881.523 906.7936 2606.796 868.932



Apr-08 793.605 10905.948 908.829 2497.564 832.5213May-08 688.782 10777.914 898.1595 2309.423 769.8077Jun-08 611.366 10566.319 880.5266 2093.753 697.9177Jul-08 570.775 10210.926 850.9105 1870.923 623.641


May-09 623.677 5900.309 491.6924 1668.972 556.324Jun-09 715.513 6004.456 500.3713 1894.998 631.666Jul-09 746.489 6180.17 515.0142 2085.679 695.2263




RSI

MONTHCLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-05 355.14May-05 337.986 17.154Jun-05 327.613 10.373Jul-05 370.587 42.974


May-06 718.711 48.675Jun-06 644.582 74.129

SUM 478.75 189.308AVERAGE 31.91667 12.62053RS 2.528948RSI 71.66294


Jul-06 704.89Aug-06 751.379 46.489Sep-06 828.345 76.966Oct-06 877.75 49.405Nov-06 893.82 16.07Dec-06 999.32 105.5Jan-07 1088.893 89.573Feb-07 1005.434 83.459Mar-07 788.731 216.703Apr-07 769.18 19.551

May-07 816.816 47.636Jun-07 822.961 6.145Jul-07 926.168 103.207

Aug-07 891.956 34.212Sep-07 1006.773 114.817





Oct-07 1058.839Nov-07 993.4 65.439Dec-07 988.634 4.766Jan-08 902.837 85.797Feb-08 876.923 25.914Mar-08 827.036 49.887Apr-08 793.605 33.431

May-08 688.782 104.823Jun-08 611.366 77.416Jul-08 570.775 40.591



MONTH CLOSING GAIN LOSS



PRICEJan-09 389.692Feb-09 422.476 32.784Mar-09 489.487 67.011Apr-09 555.808 66.321

May-09 623.677 67.869Jun-09 715.513 91.836Jul-09 746.489 30.976





GRASIM

MOVING AVERAGE

MONTHS CLOSINGSUM OF 12 MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3 MONTHS AVG

Apr-05 1205.628May-05 1135.28Jun-05 1097.587 3438.495 1146.165Jul-05 1112.915 3345.782 1115.26067


May-06 2131.034 18055.719 1504.6433 6325.783 2108.59433Jun-06 1761.446 18719.578 1559.9648 6170.711 2056.90367Jul-06 1969.614 19576.277 1631.3564 5862.094 1954.03133


May-07 2490.286 28704.993 2392.0828 6872.391 2290.797Jun-07 2459.233 29402.78 2450.2317 7248.784 2416.26133Jul-07 2863.089 30296.255 2524.6879 7812.608 2604.20267


May-08 2283.838 36186.089 3015.5074 7595.752 2531.91733Jun-08 2152.317 35879.173 2989.9311 7017.063 2339.021



Jul-08 1752.465 34768.549 2897.3791 6188.62 2062.87333Aug-08 1988.593 33897.231 2824.7693 5893.375 1964.45833Sep-08 1922.343 32552.311 2712.6926 5663.401 1887.80033Oct-08 1336.815 30225.101 2518.7584 5247.751 1749.25033Nov-08 944.876 27494.029 2291.1691 4204.034 1401.34467Dec-08 1116.236 24939.841 2078.3201 3397.927 1132.64233Jan-09 1246.093 22919.147 1909.9289 3307.205 1102.40167Feb-09 1356.253 21411.743 1784.3119 3718.582 1239.52733Mar-09 1472.303 20153.04 1679.42 4074.649 1358.21633Apr-09 1645.506 19217.638 1601.4698 4474.062 1491.354

May-09 1986.71 18920.51 1576.7092 5104.519 1701.50633Jun-09 2325.589 19093.782 1591.1485 5957.805 1985.935Jul-09 2603.763 19945.08 1662.09 6916.062 2305.354


RSI

MONTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-05 1205.628May-05 1135.28 70.348Jun-05 1097.587 37.693Jul-05 1112.915 15.328


May-06 2131.034 147.197Jun-06 1761.446 369.588




MONHCLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSS


May-07 2490.286 191.021Jun-07 2459.233 31.053Jul-07 2863.089 403.856

Aug-07 2859.911 3.178Sep-07 3267.263 407.352




May-08 2283.838 297.07Jun-08 2152.317 131.521



Jul-08 1752.465 399.852Aug-08 1988.593 236.128Sep-08 1922.343 66.25Oct-08 1336.815 585.528Nov-08 944.876 391.939Dec-08 1116.236 171.36



Jan-09 1246.093Feb-09 1356.253 110.16Mar-09 1472.303 116.05Apr-09 1645.506 173.203

May-09 1986.71 341.204Jun-09 2325.589 338.879Jul-09 2603.763 278.174



BIRLA SUPER

MOVING AVERAGE



MONTHCLOSING PRICE

SUM OF 12 MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3 MONTHS AVG

Apr-06 68.283May-06 69.179Jun-06 52.503 189.965 63.32167Jul-06 51.657 241.622 80.54067


May-07 51.675 612.802 51.06683 195.865 65.28833Jun-07 56.03 616.329 51.36075 201.793 67.26433Jul-07 56.19 620.862 51.7385 214.095 71.365

Aug-07 50.59 616.041 51.33675 214.485 71.495Sep-07 56.592 617.664 51.472 219.402 73.134Oct-07 59.5 622.369 51.86408 222.872 74.29067Nov-07 76.42 650.546 54.21217 243.102 81.034Feb-08 71.7 676.964 56.41367 264.212 88.07067Mar-08 59.616 682.503 56.87525 267.236 89.07867Apr-08 75.347 707.748 58.979 283.083 94.361

May-08 73.035 736.895 61.40792 279.698 93.23267Jun-08 67.483 754.178 62.84817 275.481 91.827Jul-08 63.973 766.476 63.873 279.838 93.27933


May-09 52.185 567.246 47.2705 162.199 54.06633Jun-09 63.42 563.183 46.93192 192.264 64.088Jul-09 58.856 558.066 46.5055 217.658 72.55267

Aug-09 66.292 553.308 46.109 240.753 80.251Sep-09 75.35 564.782 47.06517 263.918 87.97267Oct-09 78.135 600.19 50.01583 278.633 92.87767



Nov-09 77.877 646.204 53.85033 297.654 99.218Dec-09 81.361 696.535 58.04458 312.723 104.241Jan-10 89.952 753.442 62.78683 327.325 109.1083Feb-10 72.94 793.027 66.08558 322.13 107.3767Mar-10 72.823 832.388 69.36567 317.076 105.692

RSI


Apr-06 68.283May-06 69.179 0.896Jun-06 52.503 16.676Jul-06 51.657 0.846



Apr-07 50.2May-07 51.675 1.475Jun-07 56.03 4.355



39


Jul-07 56.19 0.16Aug-07 50.59 5.6Sep-07 56.592 6.002Oct-07 59.5 2.908Nov-07 76.42 16.92Feb-08 71.7 4.72Mar-08 59.616 12.084



Apr-08 75.347May-08 73.035 2.312Jun-08 67.483 5.552Jul-08 63.973 3.51


SUM 9.509 50.561 AVERAGE 0.792417 4.213417 RS 0.18807



RSI 15.82988


Apr-09 43.197May-09 52.185 8.988Jun-09 63.42 11.235Jul-09 58.856 4.564


AMBUJA CEMENT

MOVING AVERAGE

M0NTH CLOSING SUM OF 12 AVG SUM OF 3 MONTHS AVG



41


PRICE MONTHSApr-05 419.907

May-05 460.197Jun-05 299.589 1179.693 393.231Jul-05 61.97 821.756 273.9187


May-06 106.1205 2334.74022 194.5617 317.3785 105.7928Jun-06 91.906 2127.05722 177.2548 312.4035 104.1345Jul-06 103.3119 2168.39912 180.6999 301.3384 100.4461


May-07 118.78 1426.3732 118.8644 338.179 112.7263Jun-07 114.169 1448.6362 120.7197 344.901 114.967Jul-07 130.827 1476.1513 123.0126 363.776 121.2587


May-08 106.87 1557.0198 129.7517 345.162 115.054Jun-08 85.54 1528.3908 127.3659 309.172 103.0573Jul-08 79.389 1476.9528 123.0794 271.799 90.59967

Aug-08 83.397 1430.3638 119.197 248.326 82.77533Sep-08 81.602 1368.4388 114.0366 244.388 81.46267Oct-08 61.025 1282.6524 106.8877 226.024 75.34133Nov-08 56.402 1191.9635 99.33029 199.029 66.343



Dec-08 64.492 1107.566 92.29717 181.919 60.63967Jan-09 70.58 1046.327 87.19392 191.474 63.82467Feb-09 70.226 997.815 83.15125 205.298 68.43267Mar-09 68.28 944.565 78.71375 209.086 69.69533Apr-09 78.926 906.729 75.56075 217.432 72.47733

May-09 83.955 883.814 73.65117 231.161 77.05367Jun-09 95.593 893.867 74.48892 258.474 86.158Jul-09 96.178 910.656 75.888 275.726 91.90867


RSI

M0NTH CLOSING PRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-05 419.907May-05 460.197 40.29



Jun-05 299.589 160.608Jul-05 61.97 237.619


May-06 106.1205 8.2565Jun-06 91.906 14.2145




May-07 118.78 6.828Jun-07 114.169 4.611Jul-07 130.827 16.658

Aug-07 129.986 0.841Sep-07 143.527 13.541

SUM 79.3051 39.09



AVERAGE 5.287007 2.606 RS 2.028782 RSI 66.98



May-08 106.87 9.892Jun-08 85.54 21.33Jul-08 79.389 6.151





Jan-09 70.58Feb-09 70.226 0.354Mar-09 68.28 1.946Apr-09 78.926 10.646

May-09 83.955 5.029Jun-09 95.593 11.638Jul-09 96.178 0.585


45



ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATIONS :

1) ACC: Moving Average

Short Term Moving Average:



In the above chart blue color shows the closing price and red color shows the Moving average(i.e. 3months)

Moving averages are used along with the price of the scrip.

In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during J, February , July& October.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during April, May & December

The moving average is continuously falling from October to January.

The moving average is continuously rising from August to November.

Long Term Moving Average:



This chart is similar to previous chart but it is long term moving average.

In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long

term moving average (i.e., 12months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the

possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during

December & October.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the

further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during September & January.

The moving average is continuously rising from October to January.

The moving average is continuously falling from October to August .



2) GRASIM:


In the above chart, X axis indicates month and the Y axis indicates the price of scrip.

In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long term moving average (i.e., 3 months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during December, October & June.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during July, may ,& August

From January to October there is a rising trend and from March to December there is a falling trend.





In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long term moving average (i.e., 12 months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during August, October and June.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during March & January.

The moving average is continuously rising from May to October.

The moving average is continuously falling in the month of March to January..

3) Ultratech: MOVEING AVERAGE





In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long term moving average (i.e.,3months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during January, October & December.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during July & November.

The moving average is continuously rising from June to January.





In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long term moving average (i.e., 12months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during December,& January.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during July, May & January.

The moving average is continuously rising from July to January.

.

BIRLA SUPER

MOVING AVERAGE



Short term moving average

In the above chart ‘X’ axis shows the months and ‘Y’ axis shows the price scrip

In the above chart Blue colour indicates the closing Price and red shows the average

In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated in February and December

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated August and April.

The moving average continuously falling in July and December

The Moving average continuously rising in April and December

Long term




In the above chart, blue color indicates closing price. Red color indicates long term moving average (i.e., 10months MV).


In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during April,& December.

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during August, &,April

The moving average is continuously rising from April to December

AMBUJA CEMENT

MOVING AVERAGE



Short term




In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during June,July, August

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during May & September.

The moving average is continuously rising from July to September.

Long term






In the above chart, downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall. Hence, the sell signal is generated during ,July &, August

Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise. Hence, the buy signal is generated during May & September.

The moving average is continuously rising from July to September.



5. Summary of Findings, Suggestions & Conclusion:

FINDINGS

ACC:

In the chart, moving average (short term & long term) was fluctuating month

by month. It was rising from July to October & falling from november to

January.

During the month of April the shares were overbought, so it is the right time to

sell the share.

During the month of January the shares were oversold, so it is right time to

buy the share

GRASIM:

The moving average of 3 months & 12 months, shows It shows rising trend

from December to October. It shows falling trend from November to January.

The January month was overbought region; the investor can sell the scrip.

The March month was over sold region, the investor can buy the scri.



ULTRATECH:

The moving average of 3 months & 12 months was rising from April to

December. It was falling from October to January.

The April Month was overbought region; the investor can sell the scrip.

The January month was oversold, region, the investor can buy the scrip.

BIRLA SUPER:


December. It was falling from May to December.

The December Month was overbought region the investor can sell the scrip.

The September month was oversold, region, the investor can buy the scrip.

AMBUJA:


December. It was falling from May to December.

The August Month was overbought region the investor can sell the scrip.

The June month was oversold, region, the investor can buy the scrip.



SUGGESTIONS

It is very difficult for an investor to select any scrip for investment in stock

market. Before investing, the investor should go for a detailed study of the

scrip, which includes: Fundamental analysis of the company & its return for

past 3 years.

ACC:

o According Moving-Average, the prices of the scrip is falling from

October to January & the Short-Term Average intersect in June So, in

future the investor is been advised to sell the share.

o According to Relative Strength Index (RSI), the RSI lies between 80 &

90 region & is been in decreasing trend. There fore in future the prices

may come down very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the

share.

GRASIM:


October to January & the Short-Term Average intersect in June so, in



81 region & is been in increasing trend. There fore in future the prices

may come up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the

share.



ULTRATECH:


October to January & the Short-Term Average intersect in june So, in





share.

BIRLA SUPER:

o According Moving-Average, the prices of the scrip is falling from June

to December & the Short-Term Average intersect in September So, in





share.

AMBUJA:

o According Moving-Average, the prices of the scrip is falling from July

to September & the Short-Term Average intersect in october So, in



78 region & is been in increasing trend. Therefore in future the prices

may come up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the

share.



CONCLUSION

In Indian scenario the investments are spread over Bank Deposits, Savings Certificate,

Post Office, Equity Markets and the latest Mutual Fund. Since Mutual Funds are

subject to market risk the investor take help of advisory services for financial

planning which helps the investor to take calculated risk. Technical analysis is a good

indicator that shows the trend movement as well as the varying degree of moving

average movement, Rate of change and Relative strength indicates. Technical analysis

may be used for more than supplement of fundamental analysis.

The recent correction in the stock market has left many investors unsettled. It is quite

common to see many investors moving to side lines every time the market turns

volatile or corrects itself. It is sure as the market starts rallying again, some of them

will move back quickly but would be willing to move out even more quickly at the

next sign of downside volatility.

Technical analysis can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also

produce false signals. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of

technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and

confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely

as a warning that a change in trend may be very useful.

In this project, the market is falling tremendously in the month of June & July. So, the

tools which were used also showing the downward trend. We can predict that the

investor can sell the share.



BIBLIOGRAPHY:

Reference Books.

Security Analysis & Portfolio Management --By. Punithavathy Pandian.

Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management --By. Prasanna Chandra

Security Analysis & Portfolio Management --By. Fischer and Jordan

Financial Management --By. M. Y. Khan & P. K. Jain

Websites.

www.nseindia.com www.stockcharts.com www.wikipedia.com www.acclimited.com www.grasim.com www.ultratechcement.com


http://www.grasim.com/

http://www.acclimited.com/

http://www.wikipedia.com/

balaji project

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