bai thuyet trinh thi truong hieu qua - nhom 3 r

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Chuyn : Th trng hiu quDanh sch nhm 3: V Kim Dung Nguyn Hong Bo Anh Nguyn Th Bo Khuyn Trn Ngc Hip Nguyn Gia ng o Thy Hi Nguyn Th Hoi n

Ni dungI.

Th trng hiu qu:1. 2.

3.4. 5.

Tin nh ngha VD th trng hiu qu Cc hnh thc th trng hiu qu Cc bi hc v th trng hiu qu

II.

Lin h thc tin v cu hi tho lun * Thc trng ch s VN-Index * Vi du thc t nhn xet * Cu hi tho lun

I.1.

Th trng hiu quTin :Cc i th cnh tranh tham gia th trng vi muc ich ti a ha li nhun. Nhng thng tin v chng khon c cng b trn th trng mt cch ngu nhin v t ng, vic quyt nh v thi im cng b thng tin cng c lp nhau. Cc nh u t lun tm mi cch iu chnh gi chng khon tht nhanh nhm phn nh chinh xc nh hng ca thng tin.

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)2.

nh ngha (efficient market) l ni m ti bt k thi im no, tt c cc thng tin mi u c nhng ngi tham gia th trng nm bt v tc th c phn nh trong gi c th trng. Do s thay i gi c th trng l ngu nhin.

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)3. Mt s vi du v th trng hiu qu:

Ch s FTSE 100 (Anh), ch s cng nghip trung bnh Dow Jones (M), ch s DAX (c), ch s CAC (Php)

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)

T sut sinh li ngy t v t+1

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)4. Cc hnh thc ca th trng hiu qu:

Hiu qu yu: Gi c phn nh thng tin cha ng trong h s gi c qu kh v cc hin tng ca th trng c th d on c. Hiu qu va: gi c phn nh khng ch gi qu kh m cn phn nh tt c thng tin cng b khc. Gi chng khon s iu chnh nhanh chng trc bt k thng tin cng khai no.

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)

Hiu qu mnh: Gi th trng thay i ngu nhin khng theo hng suy on no. Thng tin cng b s lm cho gi bin ng rt nhanh n mt mc cn bng.

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)Din bin trong th trng hiu qu:

T sut sinh li gia tng dn n thi im chia nh c phiu. T thng 0 tr i, gi c nh v hu nh khng bin ng (lin h thc tin CP HRC u bi)

Th trng hiu qu (cont.)5. Cc bi hc ca th trng hiu qu:

Th trng khng c tri nh. Hy tin vo gi th trng. Hy c su. Khng c cc o tng ti chinh. Phng n t lm ly. xem mt c phn, hy xem tt c.

II. Lin h thc tin v cu hi tho lun:

S trnh chiu khi tho lun nhe

Lin h thc tin v cu hi tho lun (cont.)

Thc trng ch s VN-Index

Gi cc loi chng khon vt xa gi tr thc Bin ng mnh bi cc cc yu t tm l (tm l by n) Mang nng yu t u c Gi b nh hng kh ln bi cc nh u t nh l thiu kin thc Khng c mt tiu chi nht nh no dn dt gi chng khon.

Thc trng ch s VN-Index (cont.)

Gi tr c phiu b pha long (do cc t pht hnh thm lin tuc) Kh nng hp thu c gii hn nhng qu nhiu cng ty nim yt a s l nhng cng ty c vn it v hiu qu hot ng thp Cc th ch php l cha ban hnh chinh sch h tr pht trin Th trng chng khon Vit Nam cha hot ng hiu qu, gi c thay i theo nhng d on nht nh.

V d thc tCNG TY C PHN CAO SU HA BNH a ch: X Ha Bnh, huyn Xuyn Mc, tnh B Ra Vng Tu BO CO TI CHNH (thi im 16/10/2007) 9 thng u ca nm ti chinh kt thc ngy 31 thng 12 nm 2007

Qu III CH TIU Nm nay Nm trc

Ly k t u nm n cui k ny

Nm nay

Nm trc

Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip

29,507,829,541

29,554,564,504

91,156,923,402

77,670,769,033

Din bin gi HRC t ngy cng b kt qu hot ng SXKD (16/10/2007)

Nhn xt gi HRC:Thi im cng b gi HRC l 180,000 Gi tng 10,000 sau thi im cng b kt qu kinh doanh 20 ngy. Gi vn lin tuc thay i cho n tn ngy 30/11/2007 (175,000/CP) Bo co ti chinh kh quan nhng gi vn gim ->Cu hi t ra: Th trng CK VN c hot ng hiu qu khng vi bin giao ng gi nh trn?

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