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Assignments, chapter 6 Analysis assignments 6.1. Scenarios Write an essay of 500 to 1,000 words in which you explain what the significance of scenarios is with respect to sustainable development. Before starting, focus on a specific target group that fits in with your current or future situation as either a professional or an individual. Your target group could, for example, be: municipal officials, corporate managers, politicians, technical designers, artists, or children in a given primary school or senior secondary school grade. You could also use your neighbours, parents or your children as a target group You can also vary the assignment by selecting a different topic in this chapter. 6.2. The news In 1966 a writer and a science journalist came up with an idea for a television news broadcast that – they said – could be transmitted 33 years later, in the year 1999. While the content of the broadcast is naturally imaginary, they believed that their expectations were realistic. Below you can read a ‘transcript’ of the imaginary broadcast. Source: Source: Gerton van Wageningen and Michel van der Plas, Elseviers Weekblad, 26 November 1966, pg. 37-51 Write your own news broadcast that could be transmitted 33 years from the present. Use your imagination, but try to stick to things that you think might really come true in the next 33 years. 6.3. Bets a. On the internet go to www.longbets.org, the ‘Long Bet’ website, and read up on at least ten bets. Would you vote in favour of or against these bets? Should you wish, you can even vote for real. The Long Bets website tells you how to do this. b. Ask your fellow students which way they would vote on ten or more of the bets. c. Come up with a bet yourself. Make sure that the period for the bet is at least ten years, starting from the date upon which you do this assignment. The bet must concern an entire country or a larger region, while it must also relate to sustainable development and you must explain why it is related. Your challenge must also be a bit challenging, which you can expect people to resoundingly disagree with. It is Friday, 31 December 1999, and this is the news. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. A spaceship with 20 occupants returning from the moon collided with a large meteorite a short distance from earth. Radio contact with the ship has been lost. An American, a Japanese and a Russian astronaut have become the first earthlings to set foot on Ganymede, one of the four big moons of Jupiter. In view of his advancing age, President Martin, who will turn 123 next month, has decided not to run for a second term next year as leader of the United European Republic. A mass evacuation has started on the Japanese island of Hokkaido in the run-up to the large earthquake that will hit the island in 22 days. A young woman has been admitted to hospital on one of the Samoan islands after displaying symptoms reminiscent of cancer, a disease that was last seen in 1991.

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Assignments, chapter 6

Analysis assignments 6.1. Scenarios Write an essay of 500 to 1,000 words in which you explain what the significance of scenarios is with respect to sustainable development. Before starting, focus on a specific target group that fits in with your current or future situation as either a professional or an individual. Your target group could, for example, be: municipal officials, corporate managers, politicians, technical designers, artists, or children in a given primary school or senior secondary school grade. You could also use your neighbours, parents or your children as a target group You can also vary the assignment by selecting a different topic in this chapter. 6.2. The news In 1966 a writer and a science journalist came up with an idea for a television news broadcast that – they said – could be transmitted 33 years later, in the year 1999. While the content of the broadcast is naturally imaginary, they believed that their expectations were realistic. Below you can read a ‘transcript’ of the imaginary broadcast.

Source: Source: Gerton van Wageningen and Michel van der Plas, Elseviers Weekblad, 26 November 1966, pg. 37-51

Write your own news broadcast that could be transmitted 33 years from the present. Use your imagination, but try to stick to things that you think might really come true in the next 33 years. 6.3. Bets a. On the internet go to www.longbets.org, the ‘Long Bet’ website, and read up on at least ten bets. Would

you vote in favour of or against these bets? Should you wish, you can even vote for real. The Long Bets website tells you how to do this.

b. Ask your fellow students which way they would vote on ten or more of the bets. c. Come up with a bet yourself. Make sure that the period for the bet is at least ten years, starting from the

date upon which you do this assignment. The bet must concern an entire country or a larger region, while it must also relate to sustainable development and you must explain why it is related. Your challenge must also be a bit challenging, which you can expect people to resoundingly disagree with.

It is Friday, 31 December 1999, and this is the news. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.

A spaceship with 20 occupants returning from the moon collided with a large meteorite a short distance from earth. Radio contact with the ship has been lost.

An American, a Japanese and a Russian astronaut have become the first earthlings to set foot on Ganymede, one of the four big moons of Jupiter.

In view of his advancing age, President Martin, who will turn 123 next month, has decided not to run for a second term next year as leader of the United European Republic.

A mass evacuation has started on the Japanese island of Hokkaido in the run-up to the large earthquake that will hit the island in 22 days.

A young woman has been admitted to hospital on one of the Samoan islands after displaying symptoms reminiscent of cancer, a disease that was last seen in 1991.

d. If you see an opportunity to take the bet with another person, you might even consider putting money on it (remember, this will at your own responsibility). If you do place a bet, then also agree to how you can complete it, including how you might be able to find each other at its conclusion. You can do this by sending the bet to the website of the book. Please remember that your name and assertion will be publically displayed on the website.

6.4. Yours truly, 2095: Language, literature and music Below you can read an excerpt from the lyrics to a song titled “Yours Truly, 2095” by the Electric Light Orchestra (also known as ELO). It is from the 1980 album Time, released by Jet Records & Columbia Records. The title of the song refers to the year 2095. a. Find the lyrics to the entire song and read them through. If you can, listen to the song while reading the

lyrics. b. Express in words what your feelings are while reading the lyrics. Are they fascinating, scary, absurd,

realistic or something else? c. Write your own futuristic song or rap. You can set it to existing music, compose your own melody, or don’t

think of any music in particular. It’s also up to you whether to use rhyme or rhythm. d. Write an essay on what music, the visual arts, artists & performers could mean to sustainable

development.

I drive the very latest Hover car, I don't know where you are - but I miss you so much till then, I met someone who looks a lot like you, She does the things you do, but she is an IBM She's only programmed to be very nice, But she's as cold as ice, whenever I get too near, She tells me that she likes me very much, But when I try to touch, she makes it all too clear. She is the latest in technology, Almost mythology, but she has a heart of stone, She has an IQ of 1001, She has a jump suit on, and she's also a telephone.

Numerical assignments 6.5. Exponential growth (spreadsheet) Download the spreadsheet ‘Exponential growth.xls’ from the website of the book. First read the explanation contained in the worksheet. Use the large table to work out the following: a. If growth is three percent per annum, after how many years will the size be fourteen-fold? b. If the doubling time is 30 years, what will the annual growth percentage be? Use the yellow fields to answer the following questions: c. If the growth percentage is two percent per annum, how many years will it take for the size to increase 20

times? d. If the size shrinks by three percent per annum, how long will it take to be halved? e. Imagine that you earn €20,000 a year at the age of 20, and that your income increases by 18 percent every

year. How much will you earn when you are 60? f. Painswick is a village and civil parish in the Cotswolds in Gloucestershire, England. In the year 2000 the

village had a population of 2,041. Imagine that the population grew over the next century by 12 percent a year as a result of population growth and immigration. How many people will be living in Painswick in the year 2100?

6.6. The Fox-Rabbit Model (spreadsheet, differential equations) The fox-rabbit model can be studied using a specially constructed programme, but it can also be studied using a spreadsheet. Download the spreadsheet ‘Lotka Volterra.xls’ from the website of the book. a. Study the calculations contained in the spreadsheet, ensuring that you understand how they work. b. Amend the propagation speed for the rabbits and see what happens. c. Change other values too, thus engaging in a small study. d. What is the significance of the phase diagram? e. Restore the original values (by, for example, returning to the original spreadsheet) and this time select

starting values for the number of rabbits and foxes that are near to (but not identical to) the stable values. What do you observe? Experiment using various values. Also select the exact stable values once.

6.7. The Fox-Rabbit Model (differential equations) a. The fox-rabbit model, also known as the Lotka-Volterra model, can be represented in the form of

differential equations:

PHaHrdt

dH

PmPHbdt

dP

In the above H (‘hunted’) represents the number of rabbits and P (‘predator’) the number of foxes. The letters r, a, b and m are constants, to which you could, for example, assign the following values: H0 = 90000 P0 = 200 r = 6/P0 a = 10/(P0H0) b = 0.1/(P0H0) m = 0.15/P0 Input the differential equations into a suitable mathematical programme, such as a simulation package. Study the system in various forms, including a graphic form. Alter the values for the four constants and the starting values and compare the results to the graphs in this chapter. Draw a phase diagram.

b. Use the values stated above for the constants. Now find the starting values for H0 and P0 where the fox and rabbit populations are constant (and greater than zero). In other words, find a stable point. You can use the model that you inputted for question a.

c. Calculate the position of this stable point using differential equations. 6.8. Exponential and logistic growth (differential equations)

a. For uninhibited growth, it holds that the propagation speed of a population dt

dN is proportional to the

population N(t) itself. This fact renders a differential equation in the form of

)()(

tNcdt

tdN

Find an exact solution to this equation, and prove that such growth will always result in exponential growth.

b. The differential equation for logistic growth is:

max

)(1)(

)(

N

tNtNc

dt

tdN

Where Nmax is the upper boundary of the system in the form of the greatest possible population. Using this equation, demonstrate that the logistic growth is almost equal to exponential growth, if N(t) << Nmax. Explain the significance of the factor in brackets.

c. The exact solution to the differential equation in question b is:

cteNNN

NNtN

0max0

max0)(

Select values for N0, Nmax and c. Draw a graph of N(t) as a function of t, demonstrating that this involves inhibited growth.

d. Prove that the formula for question c is indeed the general solution to the equation in question b.

Research assignments 6.9. Fox-Rabbit simulation For this assignment use the two programmes that can be downloaded from the website of the book: Fox-Rabbit Formula Model and Fox-Rabbit Grassland Model. a. First use the Formula Model, launch the programme and then press the ‘Start’ button, which will set the

simulation running. Examine the results. b. Press the ‘Back’ button and amend the scenario by, for example, choosing different starting values for the

foxes and rabbits. Once again, examine the results. Repeat the exercise a number of times using different starting values. Compare the results. In what respects do these different scenarios differ and in what respects do they remain the same?

c. Try to find starting values that result in the fox and rabbit populations not varying, but remaining constant from the start.

d. Now go to the Grassland Model, launch the programme and then press the ‘Start’ button, which will set the simulation running. Examine the results.

e. You have more options in this model to change the scenario, one of them being that you can change three of the fox properties: fertility rates, hunting speed and hunting method. Vary each of these in turn and examine the result of the variations.

f. You can also change the scenario by selecting different starting figures. Moreover, you can select a different map by clicking on the map of your choice. Experiment with all the options.

g. Repeat the simulation a number of times without changing it. This can be done in two ways – if you press the ‘Back’ button then the previous simulation will be repeated exactly, while if you press the (same) map button the simulation will also rerun. What happens in the latter case?

h. Conduct experiments to examine the following assertion: ”A species of animal is more successful if it is more fertile, as well as if it has a better method and greater speed.”

i. Write a report on your findings. You can use the images and graphs that can be made using both programmes. In your report, also focus on the question of whether models such as these two can, in spite of the fact that they are simplified representations of the real world, teach us something about that real world. If this is the case, what might they teach us? If that is not the case, why not?

6.10. PopSim simulation: feedback For this assignment use the programme PopSim, which can be downloaded from the website of the book.

a. Launch the programme and press the ‘Start’ button, which will set the simulation running using the ‘simple’ scenario. Examine the results – what type of growth do you observe?

b. Press the ‘Help’ button and read the programme guide. c. Investigate the phenomenon of ‘positive feedback’, selecting the relevant scenario and running the

simulation. Next, change the variables and repeat the simulation a number of times. Do this a few times with a population that is higher than the equilibrium value and a few times with it lower than the equilibrium value. Draw your conclusions from these.

d. Investigate the phenomenon of ‘negative feedback’, selecting the relevant scenario and running the simulation. Next, change the variables and repeat the simulation a number of times. Do this a few times with a population that is higher than the equilibrium value and a few times with it lower than the equilibrium value. Draw your conclusions from these.

e. Read the material on positive and negative feedback in chapter 2 once again. Compare it to your own conclusions.

6.11. PopSim simulation: global scenarios For this assignment use the programme PopSim, which can be downloaded from the website of the book. a. Launch the programme and press the ‘Start’ button, which will set the simulation running using the ‘simple’

scenario. Examine the results – what type of growth do you observe? b. Press the ‘Help’ button and read the programme guide.

c. Select the scenario ‘Attenuation towards stability’. What type of growth do you observe? d. Experiment with the ‘simple’ and ‘Attenuation towards stability’ scenarios by changing the values of the

variables. You can invoke one-off events and study the results. e. Turn on the ‘Pause at important moments’ option.

Use the three ‘Realistic’ options – low, medium and high. Detail your findings. f. Which of the three ‘realistic’ scenarios do you believe most closely resembles the real world, and why? g. Write a report on your findings. You can use the images and graphs that can be made using the

programme. In your report, also focus on the question of whether a model such as this one can, in spite of the fact that it is a simplified representation of the real world, teach us something about that real world. If this is the case, what might it teach us? If that is not the case, why not?

Debating assignments

6.12. Trends Some trends could be safely extrapolated over a lengthy period, but for others that would be much more risky. a. Try to find a few trends that have already been in existence for some years and which you believe will

continue for at least another decade. These might include clothes’ fashions, technology, visual arts, literature, music, science, politics, social trends or any others.

b. See whether you can find such a trend for each of the three P’s - People, Planet and Profit. c. Find a number of current trends that you are certain will not last for the next decade, or even the next five

years. Explain why you think this is so. d. Can you also find a ‘robust’ trend that you believe will continue for at least a century? Explain your

findings. 6.13. Science fiction Read the text called “With a Polite Gesture of Respect”, that is a part of section 6.2 of the book. a. Try to work out in what ways the world of the future, as depicted in this text, has changed from the world

of today. Don’t just focus on scientific and technological changes, but also on the social ones – lifestyle, human rights, the economy, communication and any others you observe.

b. Discuss which of these changes can be considered positive, pleasant or even a dream come true, and which can be considered negative, unwelcome or even a nightmare.

c. Which of the changes do you think are realistic or probable? Which do you think are unlikely or even completely impossible, not only today but even in the future?

6.14. Tinted glasses Randomly divide the group into two equal halves. The one group is the ‘Rose-tinted Glasses’ and the other is the ‘Dark Glasses’. The attitudes of each group are based on the description of the tinted glasses in chapter 6. a. The two groups debate developments in the world over the next 20 to 30 year period. Agree in advance to

a time limit for the debate. Both groups must try and ‘win’ the discussion. b. Next the two groups swap their ‘glasses’, and each group now defends the opposite point of view. This

should take up around half the time as the first part of this assignment did. c. Join the groups together once more, and examine how the debate went. Also examine which of the points

of view were probably the most plausible. This part of the assignment is not about ‘winning’, but rather about finding a ‘consensus’.

6.15. Perspectives for action A perspective for action is a point of view held by people with respect to the opportunities available to both them and to others in order to get something done. There are some pretty conflicting opinions on these perspectives for action, including questions such as what can be more easily changed – technology, or human behaviour.

In regard to that choice, a governmental council drew up a report in 1994, in which it distinguished between four strategies of tackling sustainable development, based on varying assumptions in two different dimensions: the material system, and human behaviour. They are listed in the table below.

Put the above matrix horizontally on a table, so you can use it as a ‘map’. Take 20 coins or notes of one pound, dollar, euro or whatever your currency is. Place them all on the table. Divide them into the four sections (‘Utilise’ through to ‘Protect’), with the number of coins for each section representing the confidence you have that the strategy for that section will be effective in respect of sustainable development. Discuss the apportionment and revise it until all the participants in the assignment agree and a consensus is reached.

Problem-based learning assignments 6.16. Democracy? Imagine that it was up to you to form the government in India. Would you introduce a one-child policy? 6.17. Freight transport A major city is facing transportation issues, with freight haulage on the city’s streets causing a great deal of nuisance. This is because the area contains much industry, particularly on the three large industrial sites surrounding the city. Many goods heading to or from these sites are transported daily, using a river port and a railway station, both of which are located in the middle of the city. The authorities are looking for a solution to this problem. For various reasons, moving the station or the port is not a feasible option, so the municipal executive recently proposed a different solution: build a railway that connects the port and the station to the industrial sites. The upper diagram (following page) is a city plan in the year 2012. The lower image shows the situation in 2025, assuming that the proposal goes through. There were severe local protests against the plan – hundreds of houses would have to be demolished, while the remaining houses that would be located close to the railway would suffer greatly, particularly at night. There would be railway crossings on dozens of existing streets, which would lead to delays and bother on the

Four perspectives for action for sustainable development

Human behaviour

Little change Far-reaching change

Material system

Little change

Strategy: Utilise Human needs cannot be easily changed Technology will provide solutions The economy controls the introduction

of those solutions Prosperity is essential for this Thus: utilise available resources to the

fullest extent

Strategy: Save Production systems cannot be easily

changed Limit environmental damage by cutting

down on resource consumption This requires more equal distribution Thus: save through lower consumption

Far-reaching change

Strategy: Manage World consumption is more likely to rise

than decrease This means drastic dematerialisation is

essential That can only be done through far-

reaching changes to the production systems

Thus: strong management of natural and economic capital

Strategy: Protect The risks to nature and the environment

are very high Strict ecological directives are required

for production and consumption Thus: comprehensive changes to the

system plus lower consumption This is the only way we can sufficiently

protect our environment

Source: ‘Duurzame Risico's, een Blijvend Gegeven’, a report of the Dutch Scientific Council for Governmental Policy (Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid, WRR), The Hague 1994.

part of the citizen. As one local commented: ‘They want to solve 21st century problems using 19th century technology!’ But were there any alternatives? Certainly, said a project group called ‘STD’ (Sustainable Technological Development). They made a video called ‘Urban Pipeline Transport’, which can be found on the website of the book. But would the municipal executive accept the plan?

Map of the city (beneath: including the planned railway)

Project assignments

6.18. Backcast your future First read the text: ‘Innovations, transitions and backcasting’. The text can be found as a pdf file on the website of the book. Use backcasting in order to consider your own future. You can perform this assignment alone, but it is better to do it with a group. If you are part of a group, then do the following:

- Select one person in the group who forms the focus of the assignment. - This person delves aloud into his or her future, using backcasting. The other participants serve as a

sounding board and provide responses. One of the other participants makes notes on a flip chart or using a beamer.

- The exercise can of course be repeated numerous times, each time with a different person as the centre of focus.

Choose a suitable time to focus on, such as 30 years from the present. Amongst other things, examine: 1. robust trends in your life; 2. your nightmares (dystopias); 3. your dreams (utopias); 4. the characteristics of your desired future; 5. steps on the path to this future that are important for achieving that future; 6. decisions that you have to make in the short term. 6.19. A letter from the future Perform this exercise together with a group of people. The exercise involves a scenario that covers around three-quarters of the 21st century. It is a fantasy scenario, and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that any of it might come true! It deals with a series of events that you can read about in the “negative future scenario” below. It is accompanied by a number of graphs, which are located at the end of the negative future scenario section. The information in the graphs is also contained in a spreadsheet that can be downloaded from the website of the book. a. Read the “negative future scenario” below and study the accompanying graphs. If you want to, retrieve the

spreadsheet containing the figures of the internet and study it too. b. Spend around ten minutes discussing the negative scenario in the group. c. Choose or discuss whether you want to perform the exercise alone or in groups of two or three people. d. Imagine you are a distant descendent of your real self, living in the year 2077.

Name yourself, with a made-up given name and your own surname. You are 15 years old and you have lived on a reservation in Bulgaria for as long as you remember. Write a letter to your ancestor, who was alive in the early 21st century (in other words, write yourself a letter). Think about what you are going to write. For example, include a description of daily life, or of your hopes and dreams. Or take a look back at the past century or evaluate your ancestor – anything you like.

e. Convene the group once more and exchange your experiences. Should anyone wish to, they can read their letters out loud.

f. Split up once more into small groups or on your own (the groups do not necessarily have to be the same ones as previously. Now come up with a scenario of your own, and make this a positive one! Stick to the following rules: You (or the group) determine what is meant by “positive” – what you consider to be desirable results. Your positive scenario concludes in 2067, just like the negative scenario. This is where ‘now’ starts. Your positive scenario will likewise consist of a number of years, for which you come up with various

events. If you wish to, you can also come up with tables and/or graphs. Use your imagination! Cover the entire planet in your scenario. But you can also focus on a specific region, like the UK or the

state of Virginia, or on a specific person or family. While your scenario is complete fantasy, it must still be somewhat realistic. The group can call you out

on that afterwards. Sudden magic cannot be included, nor can extraterrestrial invasions, acts of God, a radical change to human nature, or other similar events.

g. Copy all the scenarios and hand them out to all the members of the group. h. Read each other’s scenarios. i. Hold a closing discussion involving the entire group – you can determine what to discuss.

The negative future scenario (a dystopian fantasy)

2020 The quinquennial United Nations State of the World Report states that the number of people without sufficient clean water has almost hit a billion.

2025 This year’s El Niño, amplified by the greenhouse effect, causes 85 billion dollars in damage, especially in Latin America and eastern Asia, through storms, droughts and torrential rains.

2028 The African Stability pact collapses, primarily as a result of social dislocation brought about by Aids, which has infected 320 million Africans.

2032 As a result of the rising temperature levels and the subsequent climate change, no rain falls in Indonesia or Australia this year, and drought remains for the next 13 years.

2037 The sea level is now 40 cm higher than it was in 1980. 2038 The Caspian Sea is drying up, due to over-irrigation and climate change. 2040 Some 40 percent of the ozone layer has gone, and skin cancer is the number three cause of fatalities –

all sufferers stay indoors. Meanwhile 34 percent of people are suffering from chronic aspecific respiratory disease because of air pollution and particulate matter (Source: WHO).

2040 The first humans set foot on Mars. 2041 Over-fertilisation and rising temperatures have brought about a dramatic rise in algae in the oceans,

killing the last whale. 2041 Floods in Bangladesh kill 200 million, while a burst dyke in Louisiana sees another two million dead. 2042 The Water Wars. Clean water is unavailable to almost half the world’s population. In Asia, India and

Pakistan are fighting for the waters of the Indus, with copycat wars breaking out for the waters of the Jordan, the Danube, the Rio Grande and the Amazon (in 2044) as well as many others.

2042 The world population exceeds ten billion, of which six billion are living in South Asia. Two-thirds of these live in India.

2045 The latest State of the World Report announces that worldwide CO2 production, after decreasing for two decades, is on the rise once more. A primary cause is the accelerated burning of the last tropical forests.

2046 Yet another flood renders 40 percent of the Netherlands uninhabitable, and eight million Dutch refugees flee eastwards, reaching tent cities near Prague and Bucharest.

2048 In Africa smallpox breaks out, killing 300 million. The South African and Nigerian governments accuse China of deliberately spreading the virus. The accusation is impossible to verify.

Nigeria responds by launching three nuclear missiles at China, one of which annihilates the capital city of Beijing.

2052 The flood of refugees from South America to the US has swollen to ten million people a year. The US abandons its armed attempt to keep them out.

2056 A mass that grows to 1,800 million people flees India as refugees and moves to the West. The countries they pass through are completely stripped. They move through Pakistan, Iran, the Caucasus and Turkey into Europe, seeking security and Western prosperity. Arabs and Europeans flee before them, and in the Balkans the unarmed multitude is attacked by NATO troops, killing a third of them. The remainder flood into Europe, filling even Scotland and Ireland.

NATO ceases to exist, as does the UN. In the US and Japan shares plummet over the space of a month to 0.3 percent of their former value. The Frankfurt stock exchange gives up the ghost.

2056 For the first time in centuries, worldwide deaths exceed the population growth. 2059 Some three million people of the original European population are still alive. The Indians in Krakow set

up a new Indo-European government in an attempt to restore order. 2061 In the face of continuous war between old and new population groups, the Indo-European

government decides to shut the remaining original Europeans into three reservations – in Ireland, Bulgaria and Lapland.

2077 .... you (the participant in this exercise) write a letter from the Bjela Litsa reservation in Bulgaria to your ancestor, who lived around 2015.

The data table for the graphs on the following two pages can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet from the website of the book.

6.20. Millennium Assessment presentation Download the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report (2005), as well as the PowerPoint presentation titled ‘Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Findings’ (2005). Both files can be found on the website of the book. Thoroughly study both documents, then prepare a public presentation on them. You can select your own audience, or discuss it with your teacher. Arrange a meeting for the audience, during which you present your PowerPoint presentation. 6.21. Your own story Read the science fiction piece in section 6.2 of the book (‘With a Polite Gesture of Respect’). Look at it as the start of a complete science fiction novel, then continue the story. Agree with your teacher how many more words should be added, and also discuss with your teacher – or decide yourself – whether to take the story just one step forward or whether to conclude it. Don’t just turn it into a fun piece, but try to create a critical text out of your writing, which also has literary value – if you are up to that. If you perform this exercise in a group, you can agree that the members take turns to write a piece of a certain length. Agree in advance whether you will discuss the following stages or work completely independently. When your story is complete, read it out to an audience. Discuss the story with the audience (it might be a good idea to invite a neutral moderator for this task). If you believe that your story is of sufficiently high quality, send it to the website of the book. It might even be placed on the website under your name(s). 6.22. Sustainability equals continued existence … Sustainable development is, as the phrase signifies, about two aspects: development, the distribution of prosperity and welfare to all people, and sustainability, the continued existence of our society and the natural environment. There are two ways in which our continued existence might come under threat – slowly and insidiously, or suddenly and violently. The growth of the world population is an example of ‘slowly and insidiously’, as is the overexploitation of the natural environment and climate change. The book also provides examples of ‘suddenly and violently’, such as the wars in Rwanda (case 3.7) and, in chapter 7, the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl (case 7.8). These two types of threats are related, as the sudden and violent catastrophes are actually frequently the way in which a creeping derailment explodes into action. Such was the case in Rwanda, and also in New Orleans when the city was flooded in 2005 (see case 7.3). This is when a system collapses, with catastrophic results. You might well imagine how the global population growth and the rise in prosperity could lead to a Rwanda-type disaster on a worldwide scale, and that is exactly what sustainable development has to prevent. So, sustainable development must focus on eliminating both the insidious and the sudden threats. Figure (1), on the next page, shows that seven main goals can be distinguished on this basis, all of which should be reached through sustainable transitions. For each of these the required transitions can be considered. One possible ‘roadmap’ is show in figure (2). You can download both figures from the website of the book under the names ‘Survival (figure 1).jpg’ and ‘Survival (figure 2).jpg’. Study the map in figure (2) as well as the points of departure as shown in figure (1). This includes:

a. Critically discuss figure (1) and see whether you can agree with it. Back up your points. If you do not agree with the diagram, then redesign it.

b. Thoroughly examine figure (2). For each of the elements and for each connecting arrow, check whether you agree. Back up your points.

c. Are the transitions in figure (2) realistic? In other words, do you think that they are both necessary and feasible? If not, how do we solve the associated issues of unsustainability?

d. Design a new version of figure (2), based on the insights you gained through your investigation. e. Write a report on it or create a PowerPoint presentation of it (dividing the figure into segments so that

it is readable when displayed on a screen) and present it to an audience. Discuss it with your audience.

Figure (1): seven goals for ensuring our continued existence

Figure (2): A possible roadmap to continued existence

6.23. Sustainable transitions Use figures (1) and (2) in exercise 6.22 as a point of departure, and also read the introduction to the exercise. In figure (2) a large number of transitions are listed. Select one of them and find out what that transition could contain. Amongst other things, discuss:

• relevant technological innovations;

• required paradigm shifts;

• significant trend breaks;

• accompanying economic and social changes;

• the degree to which this transition might already be happening. Write a report on your findings.

Film assignments 6.24. Feature films and documentaries Watch, preferably with others in your class, one of the following:

• Collapse (2009), a documentary by Noel Dockstader based on the impressive eponymous book by Jared Diamond, published in 2005, which outlines how society could collapse by using a number of examples (including Mesopotamia and Easter Island). Please note: the assignment is referring to a National Geographic documentary, not the documentary Collapse by Chris Smith, narrated by Michael Ruppert.

• Rapa Nui (1994), a feature film directed by Kevin Reynolds covering the disastrous happenings on Easter Island – known as Rapa Nui in the local language.

• Earth 2100 (2009), a science fiction-cum-documentary by Bob Woodruff, detailing a dystopian future up to the year 2100

• Soylent Green (1973), a feature film directed by Richard Fleischer that is set in a very overpopulated future world

• Technocalyps (2006), documentary by Frank Theys that brilliantly shows how the future of humanity might look as a result of the influence of artificial intelligence, artificial life, nanotechnology and other hyper-modern technologies. Stick to the first episode, entitled ‘TransHuman’.

Read the reviews and other comments. Discuss the film. 6.25. Make your own video Watch the video ‘Schoolkid’, which can be found on the website of the book. Then make a short film or video documentary in which you portray the responsibility of the current population to future generations in a refreshing style. Should you be very happy with your film, then submit it to the above website. Who knows, maybe your film, along with your name, will be placed on the website so that all users can view it. If you decide to do this, do make sure that you hold full copyright, including for any music, photos or anything else used.