Aromatics trade flow report 11.24.14

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  • THE TPS WEEKLY AROMATICS TRADE FLOW REPORT November 24, 2014 Vol 1, Issue 26

    LONDON SINGAPORE HOUSTON

  • BENZENE AND PYGAS

    SUMMARY: US spot benzene prices

    surged to close the week, gaining $33 on

    the day after December was heard

    traded as high as $1,040.50/mt DDP TXC.

    Liquidity increased after market

    appeared to bottom out and ahead of

    pending contract negotiations and

    volumes of trade barrels were heard

    estimated well in excess of 300,000

    barrels.

    For November, loadings were few with a

    handful of 5-9kt parcels heard fixed.

    Sources reported at least three different

    fixtures of volumes between 15-25kt

    though confirmation was not available.

    Sources however noted that any such

    fixture were likely COA.

    Landed fixtures included a near 4kt

    parcel from Brazil as well as some 10kt

    reformate heart cut benzene, all

    reported on November 17. A 15kt parcel

    of pygas arrived at Baton Rouge from

    Tarragona mid-month, according to PIERS

    The TPS Asian benzene marker fell nearly

    $40 on the week to close Friday at

    $994/mt FOB USG and at $1,018/mt CFR

    China.

    December European benzene was talked

    notionally at near $985/mt CIF ARA while

    January maintained a $20 premium to

    December.

    -$100.00

    -$50.00

    $0.00

    $50.00

    $100.00

    $150.00

    $200.00

    $0.00

    $200.00

    $400.00

    $600.00

    $800.00

    $1,000.00

    $1,200.00

    $1,400.00

    $1,600.00

    $1,800.00

    3-M

    ar-1

    4

    11

    -Mar

    -14

    19

    -Mar

    -14

    27

    -Mar

    -14

    4-A

    pr-

    14

    14

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    23

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    2-M

    ay-1

    4

    12

    -May

    -14

    21

    -May

    -14

    30

    -May

    -14

    9-J

    un

    -14

    17

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    25

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    3-J

    ul-

    14

    14

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    22

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    30

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    7-A

    ug-

    14

    15

    -Au

    g-1

    4

    25

    -Au

    g-1

    4

    3-S

    ep

    -14

    11

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    19

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    29

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    7-O

    ct-1

    4

    15

    -Oct

    -14

    23

    -Oct

    -14

    31

    -Oct

    -14

    10

    -No

    v-1

    4

    18

    -No

    v-1

    4

    US BZ DDP M2 BZ FOB KOREA SPREAD

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    5,000 USGC ARA Oct 1-10 Bow Spring

    9,000 Ulsan Houston Early Nov Siteam Explorer

    6-9,000 Mumbai USGC End Nov Bow Sagami

    9,000 Sikka USGC End Nov Nave Universe

    5-7,000 Korea Houston Early Dec NA

    9,000 Ulsan USGC H1 Dec Formosa 29

    PYGAS

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    10,000 Rotterdam Houston Early Oct Shamrock Jupiter

    10,000 Fawley Houston Oct Ebony Ray

    15,000 Tarragona Baton Rouge End Oct Songa Opal

    *Spread includes freight rates from Korea to the US Gulf Coast of $70/mt

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

  • SUMMARY: US spot styrene monomer prices

    continued to move lower this week before

    rebounding slightly to close the week, supported by

    gains in benzene. In the US activity was thin with

    one trade heard early in the week at $1,256.50/mt

    FOB USG.

    With European styrene prices declining due in part

    to a recent surge of US material sent that way, US

    prices moved in concert. With European Dec SM

    prices near $1,260-1,270/mt, US prices would have

    to be near or below $1,234.50/mt (56 cents/lb) FOB

    USG.

    Despite US monomer prices being higher than their

    counterparts in Europe and Asia, some 45,000

    metric tons was expected to load from the USGC in

    November. Sources also noted that a decline in the

    US benzene contract could help make it profitable

    to produce incremental pounds of styrene.

    In Asia, styrene monomer prices were lower with

    the TPS CFR China marker falling over $23 on the

    week to finish Friday at $1,277/mt. FOB Korea

    styrene finished down $8.50 on the week to close

    Friday at $1,255/mt.

    In production sources said that Styrolution was

    beginning the restart of its 770,000 metric

    tons/year SM unit at Bayport, Texas. Confirmation

    from the producer was not immediately available.

    Westlake had restarted its 260,000 mt/year SM

    unit at Lake Charles earlier this month.

    STYRENE AND BENZENE DERIVATIVES

    Styrene

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    7,000 Houston Gebze Oct 25-30 MTM Hamburg

    7,340 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Bow Summer

    5,700 Houston Anping, China H1 Nov Stolt Island

    10,500 Houston Brazil Nov 1-10 Sloman Herakles

    5,000 USGC ARA Mid-Nov Harbour Progress

    10,000 USGC ARA Nov 20-30 Bow Chain

    5,000 Houston ARA Mid-Nov Nordic tonnage - NA

    5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Chem Lyra

    5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Stolt Innovation

    5,000 Houston FE and China Nov 12-20 Bow Trajectory

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

    Cumene

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    5,230 Antwerp Mobile Oct 25-30 Bow Clipper

    6,500 Paiolo Baton Rouge Nov 1-5 Henda

    3,000 Ulsan Freeport Nov 5-10 Atllantic Canyon

    5,000 Terneuzen Freeport Nov 15-20 NA

    Phenol

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    2,857 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Nordic Mari

    1,048 Houston Kaohsiung Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort

    1,048 Houston Pasir Gudang, Malaysia Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort

    2,500 Houston Kandla November 1-5 Stolt Savannah

    1,030 Houston Kandla November 5-10 Songa Peace

  • Styrene economics on a spot basis remained in negative

    territory this week after waning demand and lower

    prices in Europe put downward pressure on US prices.

    With the November benzene contract settled at

    $1,136/mt and ethylene at near $1,108/mt,

    ethylbenzene production costs were estimated at

    $1,158.75/mt (52.56 cents/lb) while styrene monomer

    production costs were at $1,311.75/mt (59.50 cents/lb).

    With spot being talked well under 57 cents/lb, margins

    on incremental pounds were estimated at near -

    $67.25/mt, according to TPS data. The styrene to

    benzene spread closed Friday at $216/mt, down from

    near $450/mt the previous week.

    -120.00

    -70.00

    -20.00

    30.00

    80.00

    130.00

    180.00

    230.00

    280.00

    30.00

    35.00

    40.00

    45.00

    50.00

    55.00

    60.00

    65.00

    70.00

    75.00

    80.00

    11

    -Mar

    -14

    20

    -Mar

    -14

    31

    -Mar

    -14

    9-A

    pr-

    14

    21

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    30

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    12

    -May

    -14

    21

    -May

    -14

    2-J

    un

    -14

    11

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    20

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    1-J

    ul-

    14

    11

    -Ju

    l-1

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    22

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    Au

    g-1

    -14

    Au

    g-1

    2-1

    4

    Au

    g-2

    1-1

    4

    2-S

    ep

    -14

    11

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    22

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    1-O

    ct-1

    4

    10

    -Oct

    -14

    21

    -Oct

    -14

    30

    -Oct

    -14

    10

    -No

    v-1

    4

    19

    -No

    v-1

    4

    SM production costs SM Spot value SM Margins $/mt

    MIXED XYLENES, PARAXYLENE AND TOLUENE

    Activity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained

    slow on the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US

    November spot MX prices closed this week at nea

    $812/mt FOB USG. The US price was a $38 premium to

    the TPS CR China marker.

    European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at

    $820/mt FOB NWE

    PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while

    activity was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was

    heard loaded from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another

    10kt headed to China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday

    while the TPS CFR Taiwan marker was at $1,040/mt.

    US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG

    as a 5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La

    Plata.

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    11/2/2014 11/3/2014 11/4/2014 11/5/2014 11/6/2014

    US styrene monomer exports - H1 Nov

  • PX

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    10,500 Texas City Coatzacoalcos Oct 10-15 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Oct 20-30 Fairchem Mustang10,400 Houston Pajaritos/Coatzacoalcos End Oct Oceanic Cerise9,300 Houston Altamira/Pajaritos Nov 5-10 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Nov 1-10 MTM London10,000 Houston Ningbo Mid-Nov Siteam Adventurer

    MX

    Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    4,200 Rio Grand do Sol Houston Oct 1-10 Selje

    10,000 Houston Ulsan Oct 5-10 Sequoia

    9,500 Houston Ulsan Oct 20-25 Bow Elm

    2,000 Houston Bourbata Oct 20-30 St Aqua

    2,500 Houston Veracruz Oct 25-30 Bernora

    TOLUENEQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

    5,245 Aratu/La Plata Houston 28-Oct Bow Chain

    Activity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained slow on

    the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US November spot

    MX prices closed this week at near at $812/mt FOB USG. The

    US price was a $38 premium to the TPS CR China marker.

    European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at

    $820/mt FOB NWE

    PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while activity

    was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was heard loaded

    from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another 10kt headed to

    China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday $70 below the TPS

    CFR Taiwan marker.

    US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG as a

    5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La Plata.

    European toluene was talked at a $5/mt premium to US

    material while the TPS CFR China marker closed slightly higher

    Friday at $863/mt.

    -$50.00

    $0.00

    $50.00

    $100.00

    $150.00

    $200.00

    $0.00

    $200.00

    $400.00

    $600.00

    $800.00

    $1,000.00

    $1,200.00

    $1,400.00

    $1,600.00

    14

    -Mar

    -14

    25

    -Mar

    -14

    3-A

    pr-

    14

    14

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    24

    -Ap

    r-1

    4

    6-M

    ay-1

    4

    15

    -May

    -14

    27

    -May

    -14

    5-J

    un

    -14

    16

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    25

    -Ju

    n-1

    4

    7-J

    ul-

    14

    16

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    25

    -Ju

    l-1

    4

    5-A

    ug-

    14

    14

    -Au

    g-1

    4

    25

    -Au

    g-1

    4

    4-S

    ep

    -14

    15

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    24

    -Se

    p-1

    4

    3-O

    ct-1

    4

    14

    -Oct

    -14

    23

    -Oct

    -14

    3-N

    ov-

    14

    12

    -No

    v-1

    4

    21

    -No

    v-1

    4

    MX FOB $/mt PX FOB USG M1 PX-MX Spread

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

    COMPANY LOCATION CAPACITY TIMING

    US

    Styrolution Bayport 770 kt/year 11/20/2014 - RS

    Shell Norco 1,360 kt/year 11/13/2014 - Fire

    Westlake Lake Charles 260,kt/year 11/13/2014 - RS

    ASIA

    LG Chem Yeosu 380 kt/year H2 Oct - 30 day

    Sinopec Zhenhai 650 kt/year End Oct - 30 day

    Thai PTTGC Map Tu Phut 650 PX, 355 BZ 10/17/2014 - RS

    EUROPE

    Shell Moerdijk 460 kt/year Down June -RS Jan 15

    ExxonMobil Botlek 820 kt/year October - RS H1 2015

    PRODUCTION

  • H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD -

    $794.00

    H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD -

    $794.00

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

    Copyright The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | useds@petchemstandard.com |

    CONTENT IS PROVIDED AS IS. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

    HALF MONTH AVERAGES

    US SPOT BZ DDP USG US SPOT SM FOB USG

    H2 Sep - $1,268.30 H2 Sep - $1,489.21

    H1 Oct - $1,243.50 H1 Oct - $1,500.25

    H2 Oct - $1,154.00 H2 Oct - $1,493.18

    H1 Nov - $1,057.00 H1 Nov -$1,416.50

    H2 Nov MTD - $983.71 H2 Nov MTD - $1,244.75

    US SPOT TOLUENE FOB USG US SPOT MX FOB USG

    H2 Sep $1,084.46 H2 Sep - $1,090.80

    H1 Oct - $1,113.00 H1 Oct - $1,072.50

    H2 Oct - $972.80 H2 Oct - $978.93

    H1 Nov - $874.60 H1 Nov - $867.18

    H2 Nov MTD $816.25 H2 Nov MTD - $794.00

    US SPOT PX FOB USG

    H2 Sep $1,185.90

    H1 Oct - $1,133.75

    H2 Oct - $997.50

    H1 Nov $938.50

    H2 Nov MTD - $956.00

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    0.00

    100.00

    200.00

    300.00

    400.00

    500.00

    600.00

    BZ price gal NGT price gal MX price gal

    1.500

    1.700

    1.900

    2.100

    2.300

    2.500

    2.700

    2.900

    3.100

    3.300

    1-J

    an-1

    3

    1-F

    eb

    -13

    1-M

    ar-1

    3

    1-A

    pr-

    13

    1-M

    ay-1

    3

    1-J

    un

    -13

    1-J

    ul-

    13

    1-A

    ug-

    13

    1-S

    ep

    -13

    1-O

    ct-1

    3

    1-N

    ov-

    13

    1-D

    ec-

    13

    1-J

    an-1

    4

    1-F

    eb

    -14

    1-M

    ar-1

    4

    1-A

    pr-

    14

    1-M

    ay-1

    4

    1-J

    un

    -14

    1-J

    ul-

    14

    1-A

    ug-

    14

    1-S

    ep

    -14

    1-O

    ct-1

    4

    1-N

    ov-

    14

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