arctic climate change john c. fyfe canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis
TRANSCRIPT
Questions
1. What is the scientific basis for Arctic amplification?
2. Is there a human influence on Arctic climate change?
3. How accurate are model projections of Arctic climate change?
Graversen et al. [2008]
Te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
Year
Arctic
Winter temperatures over land
NorthernHemisphere
Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]
°C p
er d
eca
de
(ver
tica
lly w
eig
hte
d)
Annual trends1991 to 2000
Linked to heat transport
Annual trends1991 to 2000
Linked to heat transport
°C p
er d
eca
de
(ver
tica
lly w
eig
hte
d)
Latitude
Lev
el (
hP
a)L
eve
l (h
Pa)
Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]
Screen and Simmonds [2010]
Lev
el (
hP
a)
Total trends Linked to sea ice
Winter temperature trends: 1989 to 2008
Summer moisture trends: 1989 to 2008
Total trends Linked to sea iceL
eve
l (h
Pa)
Screen and Simmonds [2010]
Sigmond and Fyfe [2010]
The Antarctic paradox: it’s sea ice is increasing
The ozone hole is linked to less, not more, sea ice!
Model sea ice change: 1979-2005
Gillett et al. [2008]
A human influence on Arctic warmingT
em
per
atu
re a
nom
aly
(°C
)
Year
OBS
ALL
NAT
@Konrad Steffen
Jakobshavn Glacier
Holland et al. [2008]
Acceleration triggered by the arrival of warm ocean waters
Main messages
1. While our understanding of Arctic climate change is advancing some significant challenges remain
2. While climate models for the Arctic are continuing to improve some important shortcomings remain