AQGR and Climate Change (Aquaculture and fisheries) reduced

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<p> 1. Roger Pullin and Patrick White Aquatic Genetic Resources and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation 2. 24 27 October 2007 WAS Istanbul - Competing Claims And they call this planet Earth ? 3. Carbon Cycle FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA 2010). 4. Climate change stressors Short-term fluctuations Seasonal patterns Precipitation Severe storms Temperature Winds Long term change Sea Level Rise Ocean currents Warming Acidification Freshwater availability Impacts on aquatic environments Impacts on aquatic ecosystems Impacts on aquatic species Impacts on aquaculture Impacts on fisheries Roles of aquatic resources for adaptation and mitigation Conclusions, recommendations and priority actions Regional implications Africa Latin America/ Caribbean North America Asia Europe Oceania Report structure 5. Climate change - Increase in variance Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b) 6. Climate change - Increase in mean Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b) 7. Increase in mean and variance Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b) 8. Historical temperature change IPCC 2001 9. Average Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Content 10. Increasing acidification of the ocean (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) Dissolved CO2 forms a weak acid pH decreases as dissolved CO2 increases Direct observations of pH over last two decades show pH decreases of about 0.02 units per decade Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface pH of 0.14 to 0.35 units over the 21st century Bad news for marine organisms which use aragonite and calcite to build shells European Station for Time Series in the Ocean (29N, 15W) Hawaii Ocean Time Series (23N, 158W) Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Study (32N, 64W) 11. Ocean acidification 12. Seasonal pattern change Rainy season starting early / late Hot season starting early / late Rains during dry season Dry during rainy season 13. Expected Changes in Environmental Parameters in 2050 Climate zone Surface Temp. (C) Bottom Temp. (C) Salinity ppt Bottom Salinity Ice concentration (%) Arctic +0.7 +1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -9 Temperate N +0.4 +0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -2 Subtropical N +1.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 0 Tropical +1.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0 Subtropical S +0.5 +0.3 -0.2 0 0 Temperate S +0.4 +0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 Antarctic +0.7 +0.5 -0.2 0.0 -3 13 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium 14. Key aquatic habitats Fisheries and aquaculture are dependent on a number of key aquatic habitats that are affected by Climate Change Coral reefs Sea grass beds Mangroves Agricultural wetlands Flooded forests 15. Coral reefs Provide food and shelter for an estimated 25% of known marine fish species Indicator (Bleaching) of ecological impacts of short term Climate Change Susceptible to Ocean acidification Increasing seawater temperature Precipitation patterns river plumes Strong waves and currents Sea level rise Extreme weather events 16. Coral bleaching Photo by Nicolas Bailly, FishBase, Philippines, 2010 17. Coral reefs Ocean acidification Affect coral growth and recruitment Precipitation Low tolerance of salinity change Prone to increasing water run off and sediment plumes Temperature and ENSO Increase in temperature by 1-3 deg C can trigger coral bleaching Recovery is possible to various extents, with time 18. Sea grasses Important nursery grounds for juvenile fish Important feeding grounds Some species are very slow growing; e.g., Posidonia Susceptible to Temperature Increasing seawater temperature; e.g., Mediterranean Large temperature fluctuations Extreme heat waves 19. Mangroves Important spawning and nursery grounds Provide coastal protection Susceptible to Sea level rise Increasing salinity Increased flooding Move range inland if possible (needs time) Extreme weather events Tropical storms and typhoons damage Remove peat deposits Bring sulphide-rich sediments to surface 20. Anticipated impacts and negative outcomes for fisheries Adapted from Allison (2009) Ocean current change ENSO Sea level rise Rainfall River flow Lake levels Temperature changes Storm severity Storm frequency Acidification Species composition, productivity, species distribution, diseases, coral bleaching, calcifiers Catch effort, safety at sea, fishing areas Increased operational costs, reduction in livelihoods, loss and damage, displacement, food security Climate change Negative Outcomes Degraded production ecology Impoverished communities and livelihoods Higher risk fishing operations Wider societal and economical burdens Adaptation costs, market impacts, water resource allocation Impacts 21. Fisheries inland fisheries Fragmented populations (especially freshwater) High genetic diversity Susceptible to Temperature fluctuations changes in lake water stratification Precipitation river flows Low dissolved oxygen Lake and reservoir turnover Water quality changes Changes in connectivity of waters 22. Fisheries Inland fisheries Impacts Temperature Water stratification species composition Breeding timing and cues Evapotranspiration water levels Poleward/upstream range changes or extinctions Precipitation Water flows droughts, water levels, habitat loss, salt water intrusion range loss fish yields lower and unpredictable Glacial melt dry season river flows Higher nutrient / pollutant levels fish yields 23. Fisheries Inland fisheries Impacts Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion estuaries, deltas, rivers Reduce FW habitats especially deltas Lake water levels range loss reduced reproduction fish yields lower and unpredictable Wind pattern changes change in water mixing change in yields (natural productivity and fisheries) Great regional variation among river basins 24. Coastal fisheries Fishing yield per km2 per year 25. Fisheries Coastal fisheries Vulnerable ecosystems Sea grass beds Wetlands Estuaries Coral reefs Mangroves Susceptible to Seawater temperature change Freshwater run off and nutrient plumes Coastal currents change Extreme events/storms Impacts on coastal ecosystems 26. Fisheries Coastal fisheries Impacts Temperature change and fluctuation Spawning aggregations, initiation of spawning Early pelagic life stage - survival Change in natural range polewards Coastal current change Early pelagic life stage range and survival Sensitive ecosystems Temperature/pH coral bleaching Reduced reef fish yields, reduced abundance of small fish 27. Fisheries Pelagic fisheries Susceptible to Temperature increasing Rainfall/water discharge sediment plumes Changes in ENSO fluctuations affect industrial fisheries Impacts Temperature increasing Changes in range polewards 28. Fisheries Pelagic fisheries Impacts Rainfall/water discharge sediment plumes Primary productivity and yield Changes in ENSO fluctuations Peruvian anchoveta (for fishmeal and fish oil) and tropical tunas Increased year to year catch variability 29. Fisheries Marine demersal Mainly on continental shelves Susceptible to Temperature increase Impacts Natural range change poleward Change in zooplankton prey affecting yield; e.g., copepods on cod recruitment and abundance 30. Fisheries Highly migratory Eels Salmon Sturgeons Tuna Susceptible to Seasonal pattern change Precipitation - river flow change; droughts/floods Changes in currents Change in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 31. Fisheries Highly migratory Impacts Seasonal pattern change Environmental variables used as migratory cues migrate earlier or later Temperature increase, surface temperature anomalies, NAO Affect range of the species Affect the migration route and extent Precipitation - river flow change Restricts upstream migration (e.g., salmon) Current direction and strength Effects distribution and range (e.g., eels) strength and position of Gulf Stream 32. Fisheries Culture-based fisheries Freshwater Restocking lakes and reservoirs (e.g., carps, tilapias, coregonids) Marine Stock enhancement/ranching (e.g., scallops) Conservation (e.g., sturgeons) Introductions and alien species (e.g., carps, tilapias, Nile perch 33. Aquaculture 34. Top fed aquaculture &amp; livestock producers 2008 APR 10.59% since 1980 APR 2.59% since 1980 (FAO FISHSTAT/FAOSTAT, 2010) Fisheries and aquaculture supply 114 million tonnes of fish for food (SOFIA 2010) 35. Aquaculture seed supply Wild seed based aquaculture Fish eels, tunas, milkfish, etc. Molluscs oysters, mussels, clams Seaweeds Susceptible to pH, temperature increase and fluctuations, water current change Impacts Recruitment, larval distribution, larval survival Hatcheries Impacts Water quality; breeding cycles; egg development 36. Aquaculture FW Ponds Freshwater ponds (shallow) Fish ( e.g., carps, catfishes, tilapias, charrs, trout) Crustaceans (freshwater prawns) Susceptible to Droughts, floods, changes in precipitation, saltwater intrusions, temperature increases, temperature fluctuations Impacts Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate, survival 37. Aquaculture Brackish water and marine ponds Shallow ponds Fish milkfish, mullets Crustaceans prawns Susceptible to Temperature, intense rainfall, storm surge, floods Impacts Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate, survival 38. Aquaculture - tanks and raceways Gravity flow Salmonids (e.g., trout) Pumped eels, catfishes, tilapias, ornamental species Susceptible to Water supply change Changes in ambient water quality (pH, temperature, water flow, etc.) Impacts Fish stress, disease, productivity Recirculation can reduce vulnerability 39. Aquaculture - cages and pens Sheltered FW (lakes/reservoirs/rivers) carps, tilapias, BW/M (bays/lagoons) milkfish, groupers, snappers, seabass Exposed/offshore M salmon, seabass, seabream Susceptible to Sheltered oxygen levels, overturn Exposed - storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing intensity and frequency) Impacts FW oxygen levels, productivity M facility damage, interruption of activity, fish loss/escape 40. Aquaculture - rafts and ropes Rafts Oysters, mussels, scallops Ropes Mussels, seaweeds Susceptible to pH decrease, water quality change, circulation change, storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing frequency and intensity) Impacts Recruitment (range and survival), productivity, structural damage 41. Aquaculture - tidal culture tidal flats/mud flats clams, oysters, mussels Susceptible to extreme temperature, temperature fluctuations, pH change, sea level rise, storms, storm surges, (change of substrate type) Impacts recruitment, culture range, production loss 42. Aquaculture - Integrated Farming and Integrated Multi-Trophic Level Aquaculture (IMTA) Integrated Farming Fish/livestock ducks, chickens Fish/crop rice/shrimp Fish/nutrient waste feedlot systems IMTA Fish fed nutrient input Mollusc extractive particulate nutrients Seaweed extractive dissolved nutrients Spreading risk among enterprises and products 43. Preliminary Analysis Aqua Maps 342 marine fishes with verified maps Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 Only core habitat considered (P &gt; 0.5) Current Species richness Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium 44. Preliminary Analysis Aqua Maps 342 marine fishes with verified maps Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 Only core habitat considered (P &gt; 0.5) Predicted Species Richness 2050 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium 45. Preliminary Analysis Aqua Maps 342 marine fishes with verified maps Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 Only core habitat considered (P &gt; 0.5) Drop in Species Richness Current-2050 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium 46. More Losers than Winners suitable habitats 0 30 60 90 120 150 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Changeinarea(%) Count Change in area of suitable habitat between 2000 and 2050 for 342 marine fishes. Median loss of area is 6% (95% CL 3.8 7.4), significantly different from zero. Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium 47. Deeper is Better Change in area by preferred habitat of marine species. For 41 deep sea fishes, the median change of +2% (95% CL -0.9 +3.7. For 103 demersal fishes, median loss is 3% (95% CL -6.5 - -0.9). For 31 benthopelagic fishes, the median loss of 3.3% (95% CL -12 3.8. For 55 pelagic fishes, the median loss is 13% (95% CL -17 - -2.9). For 112 reef-associated fishes, the median loss is 10% (-17 - -6.5). -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1bathy 2dem 3bpel 4pel 5reef Changeinarea(%) Deep sea fish +2.0% Demersal fish -3.0% Benthopelagic -3.3% Reef fish -10% Pelagic fish -13% 48. Polar and Tropical Fishes Lose Change in area by climate zone. For 43 deep sea species, the median change is not significantly different from zero (median 1.8, 95% CL -2.5 3.7). Of five polar species, three lose 9 to 32% of suitable area. For 50 temperate species, median change is +2.3% (95% CL -0.1 4.0). For 112 subtropical species, the median loss is 7% (95% CL 3.8 13) and for 132 tropical species the median loss is 9% (95% CL 7 15). -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1deep 2polar 3temp 4sub 5tropical Changeinarea(%) Deep sea fish 0% Polar fish -9 to -32% Temperate +2.3% Sub-tropical -7.0% Tropical fish -9.0% 49. Change in fisheries catch Projected changes in averaged maximum catch potential from 2005 to 2055 by the 20 Exclusive Economic Zone regions with the highest catch in the 2000s Source: Pew Sea around us project Fisheries, Ecosystems and Biodiversity 50. Vulnerability - Fisheries More vulnerable Less vulnerable Inland Marine Shallow water Deep water Long pelagic stage Short pelagic stage Complicated life cycle Simple life cycle Long generation time Short generation time Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range Sessile species Mobile species Less fecundity Great fecundity 51. Vulnerability - aquaculture More vulnerable Less vulnerable Freshwater Marine water Shallow water Deep water Wild fry/seed collection Hatchery production Long culture cycle Short culture cycle Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range High trophic level species Low trophic level species 52. Probable outcomes of climate change on aquatic genetic resources for major taxa Taxa Warming Acidification Elevated N, P Microalgae With increased nutrients, algal blooms are enhanced; oxygen is periodically depleted Calcite formation is reduced; e.g., in coccolithophores Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms, including red tides are enhanced Macroalgae; freshwater macrophytes Enhanced biomasses, with increased nutrients; periodic oxygen depletion due to die-offs; thermal stratification is increased Coralline algae are reduced and more susceptible to diseases and grazing Eutrophic...</p>

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