appfolio webinar: another record year?: 2015 mid-year apartment market predictions

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Another Record Year?: 2015 Mid-Year Apartment Market Predictions


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The leader in Apartment Market and Student Housing Research and Analysis

Nick Fitzpatrick, Research Analyst

Sophie Zatterstrom Gore, Research Analyst

14901 Quorum Dr., Suite 600

Dallas, TX 75254

www.axiometrics.com

July 2015

http://www.axiometrics.com/


The leader in Apartment Market and Student Housing Research and Analysis

• Axiometrics’ sole focus is monitoring the apartment and student housing sectors, thus

pinpointing the market’s true volatility and leading to intelligent – and profitable –

decisions.

• Axiometrics’ superior and timely market research and analytics begin with the floor-plan

analysis of a single property, then extends to competitive properties, submarkets,

metropolitan areas, regions, portfolios and companies.

• Metrics are reported monthly or more frequently, to better depict trends in the markets.

• Our frequent data collection combined with in-depth and intelligent analysis allows to

improve property and portfolio performance, and helps you identify markets, submarkets

and specific sites for apartment and student housing acquisitions and development.

• In addition to the numbers, Axiometrics provides narratives on 120 markets and their

submarkets.


Presentation Topics

• Current National Apartment Market Conditions

• Drivers of the Apartment Market

• Individual Market Performance

• New Supply

• Forecast


National Year-to-Date Effective Rent Growth

2010

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Axiometrics Inc.

2010



2010

2011

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%



2010 2011



2010

20112012

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%



2010 2011 2012



2010

20112012

2013

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%



2010 2011 2012 2013



2010

20112012

2013

2014

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



2010

20112012

2013

20142015

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%



2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Current Apartment Market Conditions

Apartment Market

Performance

Job Growth

Demographics

Single-Family

Affordability

New Supply


Polling Question

Of these factors, which are you the most concerned with

moderating apartment performance?

• Single-family Recovery

• Affordability Issues

• New Supply

• Unfavorable Job Growth


Current Apartment Market Conditions

Apartment Market

Performance

Job Growth

Outperforms any point last cycle

Demographics

Millennials and lifestyle renters

Single-Family

Current conditions contributing to favorable

apt performance

Affordability

An issue in some of the coastal markets

New Supply

Urban core submarkets are feeling

some effects

Favorable Not Favorable

Condition Scale


U.S. Population by Age Group (in Millions)Current population is higher in the 20-34 and 50-64 age groups.

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

20 to 24 Years 25 to 29 Years 30 to 34 Years 35 to 39 Years 40 to 44 Years 45 to 49 Years 50 to 54 Years 55 to 59 Years 60 to 64 Years

Mill

ion

s

2014 Population 2005 Population

Prime Renter Age Group

Sources: Axiometrics Inc., Census

Baby boomers and empty-nesters


U.S. Homeownership Rate Remains Below Long-Term Average

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1Q

15

U.S. HO Rate (%) 1990-1Q15 Avg

Sources: Axiometrics Inc., Census


New Supply LevelsUnits permitted by year

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 May2015TTMSources: Axiometrics Inc., Census

Total Residential



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000


Total Residential Single-family



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000


Total Residential Single-family Multifamily


More Residential Construction is NeededAxiometrics projects an average of more than 1.4 million households formed per year through 2018. Total residential

permitting only recently reached the 1 million-unit mark.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Current Total Residential Permitting Levels (Trailing 12 Month Sum ofUnits)

Axiometrics Projected Households Formed Per Year (2015-2018)

Mill

ions

Sources: Census, Axiometrics Inc.


U.S. Annual Job Growth

-5.5%

-4.5%

-3.5%

-2.5%

-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,00020

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

1Q

15

Job Gain ('000) Job Growth (%)

Sources: Axiometrics Inc., BLS


U.S. Job and Rent Growth

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Job GrowthJob Growth



U.S. Job and Rent Growth

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Job Growth Rent Growth Effective

Rent

Growth

Job Growth



Polling Question

At the national level, on average, how much more is the

rent on a Class A apartment today, compared to two years

ago?

• ~$50 ($600 over 12 month lease)

• ~$90 ($1,080 over 12 month lease)

• ~$120 ($1,425 over 12 month lease)


How Much More Does A Lease Cost Now?June 2013-June 2015 Comparison: Class A(full lease term cost)

$7,174

$6,084

$4,369

$3,609$3,340 $3,242

$2,763 $2,705$2,424 $2,238 $2,128

$1,425 $1,423 $1,314 $1,216 $1,164 $1,077

$604$142

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000



How Much More Does A Lease Cost Now?June 2013-June 2015 Comparison: Class B (full lease term cost)

$6,064$5,769 $5,764

$2,916 $2,897$2,607 $2,572

$2,318$1,975 $1,926

$1,658$1,420 $1,391 $1,343 $1,317 $1,306 $1,282 $1,143

$307

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000


Increases higher than Class A


How Much More Does A Lease Cost Now?June 2013-June 2015 Comparison: Class C (full lease term cost)

$4,749 $4,577

$3,412

$2,343$1,949

$1,736$1,367

$1,145 $1,137 $1,133 $1,112 $986 $886 $803 $798 $797 $630 $608 $544

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000



Rent-to-Income Ratio

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Current Long-Term Average

Income based on median household income

Source: Axiometrics Inc., Census


Bringing this all back to apartment performance...


National Rent Growth and Vacancy Rate

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

Fe

b-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct-

11

De

c-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct-

12

De

c-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct-

13

De

c-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Vacancy (Trailing 12 Month Average) Annual Effective Rent Growth Rent Growth


Vacancy


Specific Market Update and Outlook


Major Market PerformanceJune 2015 data

MSAAnnual Effective Rent

GrowthMSA

Annual Effective Rent

Growth

Oakland, CA 14.4% San Diego, CA 6.1%

Denver, CO 10.9% Charlotte, NC 6.1%

San Jose, CA 10.4% Raleigh, NC 5.7%

San Francisco, CA 9.1% Anaheim, CA 5.4%

Seattle, WA 7.5% National 5.1%

Atlanta, GA 7.3% Austin, TX 5.0%

Phoenix, AZ 7.1% Boston, MA 4.5%

Nashville, TN 6.8% Chicago, IL 4.2%

Dallas, TX 6.4% New York, NY 3.9%

Orlando, FL 6.3% Houston, TX 3.6%

Fort Lauderdale, FL 6.2% Baltimore, MD 3.2%

Los Angeles, CA 6.2% Washington, DC 1.6%

Tampa, FL 6.2% Silver Spring, MD 1.3%



Current Rent and Job Growth

Sources: BLS, Axiometrics Inc.


Annual Effective Rent Growth – 2Q15



Polling Question

Where is rent growth stronger now?

• Urban core submarkets

• Suburban submarkets


Where is rent growth stronger?

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9

Oct-

09

Dec-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0

Oct-

10

Dec-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct-

11

Dec-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct-

12

De

c-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct-

13

Dec-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15


National Effective Rent Growth

Urban Suburban


Urban versus SuburbanEffective Rent Growth


-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Atlanta, GA Urban Suburban

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Dallas, TX

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Denver, CO

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Houston, TX


Urban Suburban


-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

San Diego, CA

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Washington, DC

Urban versus SuburbanEffective Rent Growth

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Seattle, WA

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Raleigh, NC


Polling Question

Which property types are seeing the strongest rent

growth currently?

• Class A (high rents)

• Class B (mid-level rents)

• Class C (low rents)


National Asset Class Performance

92.0%

92.5%

93.0%

93.5%

94.0%

94.5%

95.0%

95.5%

96.0%

Dec-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Occupancy Rate

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

De

c-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Annual Effective Rent GrowthA B C



Asset Class Performance Effective Rent Growth


A B C

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Atlanta, GA

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Dallas, TX

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Denver, CO

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Houston, TX


Asset Class Performance Effective Rent Growth


A B C

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Raleigh, NC

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

San Diego, CA

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Seattle, WA

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Washington, DC


Top 10 MSAs for Apartment Deliveries in 2015

*Delivery schedule is only based on identified properties that have started construction. The 2016 totals will be higher for most MSAs as planned

properties begin construction. The schedule is dynamic and changes as construction timelines change on individual properties.

The chart is based on data as of June 2015.


MSA 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Houston, TX 8,100 14,170 18,150 7,646

Dallas, TX 9,926 11,860 15,365 9,787

Washington, DC 7,787 11,319 11,575 5,592

New York, NY 6,076 8,158 10,743 17,402

Denver, CO 4,220 6,116 9,913 4,045

Seattle, WA 6,107 8,409 9,008 6.296

Atlanta, GA 3,918 5,624 8,859 4,208

Austin, TX 5,656 7,968 8,654 4,621

Los Angeles, CA 3,282 6,595 7,546 8,746

Charlotte, NC 2,928 5,509 7,098 1,787

National 165,779 219,753 285,326 145,640


Top 15 Submarkets for Deliveries in 2015Identified Deliveries By Year

MSA Submarket 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Houston, TX Montrose/River Oaks 2,958 4,755 4,955 3,248

Atlanta, GA Atlanta/Fulton 1,183 3,818 4,533 3,132

Dallas, TX Oaklawn 1,130 2,845 3,048 1,793

Seattle, WA Downtown/Capitol Hill/Queen Anne 2,954 3,463 2,833 1,917

Denver, CO Denver-Downtown 1,474 1,271 2,694 1,805

Silver Spring, MD Rockville 34 1,124 2,122 284

Houston, TX Far NW/Montgomery County 421 2,884 2,052 350

New York, NY Hudson Waterfront 194 669 2,012 3,191

San Jose, CA Northeast San Jose 2,594 1,763 2,005 1,203

New York, NY Kings County 822 1,284 1,973 4,556

Houston, TX Bear Creek/Katy 928 1,578 1,906 545

Los Angeles, CA Marina Del Rey/Venice/Westchester 788 893 1,814 729

Raleigh, NC Central Raleigh 704 559 1,805 543

Houston, TX Ft. Bend County 527 696 1,760 0

*Delivery schedule is only based on identified properties that have started construction. The 2016 totals will be higher for most MSAs as planned

properties begin construction. The schedule is dynamic and changes as construction timelines change on individual properties.

The chart is based on data as of June 2015.



Houston, TX

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5F

201

6F

201

7F

201

8F

Job G

row

th

Apart

ment

Units

New Multifamily Supply Demand/Absorption Job Growth

Sources: BLS, Census, Axiometrics Inc.

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Occupancy Rate Effective Rent Growth


Dallas, TX

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

201

0

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1

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2

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3

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Job G

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Units



-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F



Washington, DC

94.0%

94.5%

95.0%

95.5%

96.0%

96.5%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

201

0

201

1

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2

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0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5F

201

6F

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Job G

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Apart

ment

Units



San Francisco, CA

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

94.6%

94.8%

95.0%

95.2%

95.4%

95.6%

95.8%

96.0%

96.2%

96.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F



0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5F

201

6F

201

7F

201

8F

Job G

row

th

Apart

ment

Units



Seattle, WA

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

94.2%

94.4%

94.6%

94.8%

95.0%

95.2%

95.4%

95.6%

95.8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5F

201

6F

201

7F

201

8F

Job G

row

th

Apart

ment

Units



2016-2018 Forecast Rent and Job Growth



2015 Forecast

372,266

4.3%

2.1%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

Units

Sources: Census, Axiometrics Inc.

New Multifamily Supply Annual Effective Rent Growth Job Growth


National Occupancy and Effective Rent Growth

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

90.0%

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15F

20

16F

20

17F

20

18F

20

19F

20

20F



Averages from 2010-2014

Annual Rent Growth: 3.3%

Occupancy Rate: 94.1%.

Forecast average for 2016-2018



Forecast average 2016-2020




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