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THE MODERN PRESIDENCYTHE MODERN PRESIDENCY

AP GovAP Gov

Lecture # 18Lecture # 18

Professor Allan Lichtman:

Keys to the White House 2012

• Imagine the next

presidential election is

being held tomorrow.

• Read through the

handout entitled “The

13 Keys to the White

House”

• Using the criteria

described, determined

if Barack Obama

would win a 2nd term

as president.

Keys to the White House

1. After the midterm

elections, the

incumbent party

(democrats) hold the

majority of seats.

2. There is no serious

contest for the

incumbent party

nomination

√√√√

Keys to the White House

3. The incumbent party

is the sitting

president

4. There is no significant

third party candidate

5. The economy is not in

a recession during the

election campaign*

6. Real per capita

economic growth

exceeds the average

growth of the

previous two terms

7. The incumbent

administration effects

major changes in

national policy

√√√√

√√√√

√√√√

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Keys to the White House

8. There is no sustained

social unrest during

the term

9. The incumbent

sustains no major

scandals

10. The incumbent

administration suffers

no major foreign

policy failures

11. The incumbent

achieves a major

success in foreign

policy and foreign

affairs

12. The incumbent is

charismatic

13. The challenger is not

charismatic

√√√√

√√√√

√√√√

√√√√

9 keys= Obama wins√√√√

par·a·dox/�parə�däks/

Noun: A statement or proposition that, despite sound (or

apparently sound) reasoning from acceptable premises, leads

to a conclusion that seems senseless, logically unacceptable,

or self-contradictory.

FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS

• 35 YEARS OF AGE

– 2030

FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS

• BORN IN THE U.S.

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FORMAL QUALIFICATIONS

• LIVED IN THE U.S.

AT LEAST 14

YEARS

• Male - 100%

• Protestant - 97%

• British Ancestry - 82%

• College Education -77%

• Politicians - 69%

• Lawyers - 62%

• Elected from large states - 69%

THE PRESIDENCYINFORMAL QUALIFICATIONS

KEY CONCEPT #1

• The power of the president

has grown tremendously

since World War II.

• The modern Presidency begins with FDR who was elected to four terms during two huge national crises:

– The Great Depression

– and WWII.

The Modern Presidency• In the 20th century, the presidency has become ever more

powerful.

FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODERN PRES:

– leads a large government

– plays an active and leading role in foreign and domestic policy

– plays a strong legislative role

– and uses technology to get 'close to Americans.'

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Presidential Public Activities 1929-1996

Internal Factors

Presidential Management Styles

Advantages & disadvantages?

Party associations with which Model & why?

Restricted

Presidents only allowed to exercise powers granted by Constitution or

Statutory laws

Prerogative

When nation is at stake, President may take any action necessary,

regardless of legality

Steward

President, representing the entire nation, must act as a steward

Models of Presidential Power

Model followed today?

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Presidents and War Powers President and War Powers

• President has been at odds with Congress

over war powers for quite some time

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KEY CONCEPT #2

• The President’s strongest powers are

implied.

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President’s #1 Weapon

• The president received certain enumerated

powers in the Constitution, however the

first line of Article II may be the most

important grant of power to the president.

• But most of the seven roles derive from

IMPLIED powers

KEY CONCEPT #3

• The size of the President’s office has grown

to keep pace with the demands of the office.

White HouseOffice

Office ofManagement &

Budget(OMB)

The NationalSecurityCouncil

OfficeOf the

Vice President

Key Offices of EOP

President’s Cabinet

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OMB

• Helps president draft his budget proposal

• Reports directly to Pres

• Mostly independent

National Security Council (1947)

Vice PresidentVice President

Chairman of the JointChairman of the JointChiefs of StaffChiefs of Staff

StateState

DefenseDefense

NationalNationalSecuritySecurityAdvisorAdvisor

Interns?Interns?

• Nixon’s Seating

Chart

The President’s Cabinet“Inner Cabinet”

State Defense Treasury

Justice

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“Outer Cabinet”

Interior Agriculture Commerce Labor HHS

HUD Trans Energy Education VA

Homeland Security

ALL must be confirmed by

Senate including AG

• "My country has in its

wisdom contrived for

me the most

insignificant office

that ever the invention

of man contrived or

his imagination

conceived."

• -John Adams, 1789

The Vice President• Primary job= sit around and don’t die.

• Only formal duty= preside over the Senate or to break tie votes in the Senate.

• A vice president is chosen for a number of reasons:

– geographical balance

– to bring the party back together at the convention

– achieve a social and cultural balance on the ticket.

– VPs can also be used to overcome candidate shortcomings.

How to Pick a Vice President to

“Balance the Ticket”

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Balancing the ticket

Old and “out-of-touch? Go with young and crazy!

Balancing the ticket

Northern, BOTOXed, liberal

elitist?

Go with Southern, tanned

playboy!

Balancing the ticket

Inexperienced “common

man”?

Go with ruthless, shadow

puppeteer!

Balancing the ticket

Beard? Better beard!

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Key Concept #4

• The president must

be all things to all

people.

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How to Impeach a President

How to Impeach a President

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How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President

How to Impeach a President How to Impeach a President

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Removal of a President

Commander

-in-Chief

Head of State

Chief LegislatorChief of Party

Chief ExecutiveChief Diplomat

Chief-of-State