2019: the red year

Professor Mark HowdenANU Climate Change InstituteVice Chair, IPCC Working Group II @ProfMarkHowden

ANU Climate Update

CO2 emissions rising again: record levels

Global Carbon Project 2020Year

CO

2fo

ssil

fuel

em

issi

ons

(Gt C

O2/y

ear)

20190.6% increase

Atmospheric GHGs: record concentrations

NASA 2020

• CO2 today 413ppm

• Record levels of methane

• Record levels of nitrous oxide

• Record levels of other GHGs

Globally – second hottest on record

• 2nd warmest year on record (1.1oC above the pre-industrial average)

• About 10% chance that one year in the next five will exceed 1.5oC globally

UKMO 2020

High temperatures almost everywhere

NASA 2020

Ocean warming accelerating

Cheng et al. 2020

Sea level: record high

NASA 2020

Update

Sea level: increasing concern

IPCC SROCC 2019; Bamber et al. 2019; Kulp and Strauss 2019

• As the science and climate change has evolved, estimates of future sea level rise (SLR) have tended to increase

• Recent expert assessment supports the use of scenarios of global sea level rise exceeding 2m by 2100 for planning purposes‒ for year 2200 the equivalent number is 7.5m

• New coastal elevation modelling tripled the number of people susceptible to SLR

• Under high emissions, by 2100 630M people will live below projected annual flood levels

Climate-related events and insurance

Munich Re 2020

Australia: record temperatures

BoM 2020

• Hottest year (+1.52oC) especially daytime temperatures

• Hottest summer• Heatwaves in several

months • Hottest day record

beaten on two successive days: 40.9oC and then 41.9oC

Warm almost everwhere: esp daytime

BoM 2020

• Daytime temperatures 2.09oC above baseline

Australian rainfall: record dry

BoM 2020

• Driest year on record (277.6mm)

• Record positive Indian Ocean Dipole event

• Many places worst drought on record

• Towns and rivers running dry, massive fish kills

• But also record rains and severe floods

Update

The rainfall-temperature operating envelope

BoM data: southern Australia

Rainfall (mm)

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

) Hotter, drier

Colder, wetter

Pre-1950’s

Rainfall-temperature operating envelopes

BoM data

Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)Te

mpe

ratu

re (o

C)

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

Hotter, drier

Colder, wetter

Pre-1950’s 1951-2000

Post-2000

A changed operating environment

Rainfall (mm)

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

Colder, wetter

Hotter, drier 2019

BoM data

Pre-1950’s

2001 onwards

1951-2000

Climate changes dragging back farm profits

Hughes et al. 2020

• Climate changes (post 2000) affecting farm profits from -37% (Vic.) to +8.7% (NT)

Fires in 2019

BoM 2020

• Global news• Early start to the fire season: 1 September • New records set for FFDI in many places• Fire danger a function of:

‒ Drought‒ High temperatures (especially daytime)‒ Strong winds‒ Dry air

Vapour pressure deficit increasing

Yuan et al. 2019

• Warmest year on record (last set 2018)

• January record: 6.3oC above average • January had 5 days over 40oC with 4

days in a row (contrast with the whole period 1960-90 having 3 days over 40oC)

• Fifth driest year on record• Extensive smoke pollution and dust• Snow on an AFL match in Manuka !

Canberra was hot and dry in 2019

BoM 2020; Mitchell Whitelaw & Geoff Hinchcliffe, ANU Design

Good news: public support increasing

Lowy Institute 2019

Greatest critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years

Critical threat, take action

Important but not critical

No action until sure

Central banks, regulators and legal systems

Business concerns and action

But it is not all good news

Policy: imagine if we could have …• A Zero Carbon Act• Mainstreaming of climate change into all major government

decisions• Sorting out an emissions trading system• Establishing an independent Climate Change Commission• Proposal to phase out coal• Significant funding for the public sector to reduce GHG

emissions• Substantial, strategic public investment in climate change

mitigation and adaptation

Policy: imagine if we could have …• A Zero Carbon Act• Mainstreaming of climate change into all major government

decisions• Sorting out an emissions trading system• Establishing an independent Climate Change Commission• Proposal to phase out coal• Significant funding for the public sector to reduce GHG

emissions• Substantial, strategic public investment in climate change

mitigation and adaptation

Reconfiguring: your goals and resources• Climate change is accelerating and the impacts increasingly felt• Both immediate and long-term, strategic responses are needed• Many of the solutions are available, affordable and scalable but

need policy support to accelerate adoption• The momentum for a just transition is increasing and this could

provide new opportunities to work and play together

Key messages

Thankyou

Prof Mark HowdenANU Climate Change Institutemark.howden@anu.edu.au@ProfMarkHowden+61 2 6125 7266

Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II

Each half a degree mattersEach year mattersEach choice matters