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Report No. 6224-CRG Antiguaand Barbuda UpdatingEconomic Memorandum November 26, 1986 Iatin Anmorica and the Carihbean Regional (Ofi(e FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution andlmay be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise he disclosed without 'WorldBankauthorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

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Report No. 6224-CRG

Antigua and BarbudaUpdating Economic Memorandum

November 26, 1986

I atin Anmorica and the Carihbean Regional (Ofi(e

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution andl may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisehe disclosed without 'World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar

Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterlingat the rate of 1.00 - EC$4.&. In July 1976 the link with sterling wasbroken and tne East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at therate of US$1.00 = EC$2.70.

Since July 1976

EC$1.00 = US$0.37 or

US$1.00 = EC$2.70

FOR OFFICLAL USE ONLY

PREFACE AND ABSTRACT

This report represents a review of recent economic developmentsin Antigua and Barbuda. A more detailed analysis of development issues andperformance is contained in a report entitled 'Antigua and Barbuda EconomicMemorandum" (Report No. 5297-CRG, January 3, 1985).

The economy of Antigua and Barbuda has performed very well overthe past three years, with economic growth averaging in excess of 6% perannum from 1983 to 1985. This has been due to very robust growth intourism arrivals, which is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhatslower pace, throughout the rest of this decade. The Government's fiscalperformance has improved in 1984 and 1985, and revenue measures introducedin late 1985 and early 1986, indicate that this improvement in revenuecollection should continue. Despite this, however, a fiscal crisis islooming from 1987 on due to the very large increase in external debt (anadditional US$110.0 million) that has been committed to since mld-1985.All of this new debt is on commercial terms, and has been contracted tofinance four projects; the Deep Bay Hotel, a water desalination and powerplant, airport runway resurfacing and a telephone exchange expansion.While Government has undertaken a variety of sector policy reforms whichshould improve sector performance, considerable uncertainty surroundsGovernment's future fiscal management. Even with strong overall economicgrowth performance over the next five years, to avoid a further buildup inarrears of external debt service obligations, the Government will need (i)to seek further revenue raising measures and raise utility tariffs, (ii) tocontinue a stringent program of current expenditure control, (iii) tocontinue an active program of divestiture of Government assets in thetourism and other sectors, (iv) to continue efforts to formally reschedulepast external debt obligations and, (v) to avoid further addition toexternal debt on commercial terms until it has become clear that existingdebt service obligations can be met.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their ofcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

This economic update is based upon the work of an IBRD mission toAntigua and ' rbuda in February/March 1986, led by Mr. R. J. Robinson.This mission consisted of Ms. J. Curry (consultant), Mr. D. Davis(consultant), Mr. G. Byam (IARM), Mr. C. Johnson (CDB) and Ms. M. Singhe(UNDP, Barbados). Assistance was also given to the mission byMr. E. Murphy and Ms. H. Corbin of the Economic Affairs Secretariat of theOECS.

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................... - iii

I. Recent Economic Developmentso. ............ .......... I

II. Public Sector Finances and Issues.................... 2

III. Balance of Payments.................................. 5

IV. Sector Policy Issues .... . 5

V. Public Sector Investment Program..................... 9

VI. Technical Assistance Program......................... 10

VII. Medium Term Policies and Prospects................... 11

-.EX I: Public Investment and Technical Assistance Programs... 16

ANNEX II: Macroeconomic Projections............................ 25

STATISTICAL APPENDIX **......................................... 28

Pego I of 2 peg9s

iOtJNTRY DATA - ANTIQUA AND BAR8UA

AREA POPUJLATION DENSITY

442 kh2 79,SOO tend 1984) 179 par kin2

Anaval Rete of Growth$ 1.31 (from 1973 to 1983) 288 per kl2of arable iland

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1983) NEALTI 19S76

Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 23.8 Populatlon per physician 2746

Crude Doath Rate (per 1,000) S.D Population per hospltal bed 137

Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live bIrths) 22.7

INCOlE DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND Ov4ERSH IP

S of natlonaj Incomr, highest quintil. .. S owned by top 10 of owners

lowest qulntlIx .. S owned by bottom 105 of ownern

ACCESS TO PIPEO WATER (1970) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

s of population - urban 33.2 X of population - urban

- rural 14.0 - rural

NUTRITION (1977) EDUCATION

Calorie Intake as I of requireinants 86.1 Adult lltsrecy rats I 90.0 (1970)

Per capita protein Intake (grams/day) 58.3 Primary school enrollinnt S 80.0 (1977)

GNP PER CAPITA In 1985t U6S2030 C/

6ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1985 (prel.) ANNUAL RATE OF GROWtTH (1, constant prices)

US, wi. S 19dO'84 1985

OMiP at Market Prices 185.3 100.0 4.7 6.7

Gross Domstic Investuint 45.7 24.7 13.0 23.0

tgoss National savings 18.7 10.1 12.0 -10.1

Current Account Balance -11.4 -6.2

Exports of Goodes NFS 123.9 66.9 5.3 8.5

lmports of Goode, NFS 147.5 79.6 2.4 11.9

tIPU!T IN 1984

value Added

US$ win. S

Agrlculture 6.5 4.7

inesutry 21.7 IS.9

Servlces 108.6 79.4

Total 136.8 100.0

GtEN}Nt FINANCE

Coafol deftd Piut Ile Suetor Centre I GoVsr,nt

(EC mnililon) Sof Gtl (EKsimlilIn) Sof OP

1994 195 19d4 1985 1984 1985 1S84 19S5

Current Rfca,gts 115.6 134.5 26.7 27.6 102.2 118.6 23.5 24.4

Current Evondlturo 107.3 128.9 24.7 26.5 105.4 107.6 24.3 22.1

Current Surplus 19.8 IS.1 4.6 3.1 -3.2 -463 -0.7 -1.3

C pital ExpandlItares 27.0 2861 6.2 S.8 14.1 14.0 3.2 2.9

Exteatl Flnane (fnet) S.9 21.9 1.4 4.5 -0.1 -2.7 - -0.6

ef Atlas fttlndology

..not sea iabie. not applable

Pep 2 of 2 page.

WJAY DATA - rTIJA NI) W lA

OEtC, CEII and PRICES 1980 1981 1962 1983 1984 1985(EC MillIon)

Bank Credit to PublIc Sector 34.1 34.4 45.5 52.0 $30.5 36.1

anO Credit t Privat. Sector 102.1 133.7 148.S 183.9 211.7 2S8.3

(Prcentges or IrAdx Nuter.)

Liabl I ltlc to PriVte Sectott dt of aoW 35.7 41.6 42.2 47.3 48.7 53.1

Reatil Price Index (1969 * 103) 400.4 42S.5 436.6 452.3 469.4 459.8AjIe pernentege chnoge Io$

General Price Index 18.1 7.0 4.1 3.6 3.8 -2.08.01* CredIt to Public Sector . 0.9 32.3 14.3 -41.4 18.4Bank Credit to Privete Sector . 30.2 11.3 23.6 15.1 22.0

8LAlN OF PANITES

1961 192 1983 1984 19S5 IPrel.)MIl 1one US$)

Expott of Goodcl WS 91.9 92.2 92.0 114.2 123.9Ioporte of Good, NFS V17.8 139.4 108.9 151.6 147.5Reeourc Gap -45.9 -47.2 -16.9 -17.6 -23.6

Factor Payaate Caet) -1.9 -3.2 -1.3 2.1 -2.8let frensfers 7.8 8.7 10.6 12.5 15.0

salanc on Current Acont -40.0- -41.7 -7.6 -3.0 -11.4

£1XTe19 ODET OE. 1R 31, 1945

US$ Mmi

PrIvef. Cepital 22.0 20.2 8.7 5.4 4.1PublIc debt, ln¢l. gtraanted 64.9

Public CepItal (not) 14.6 15.3.4 -7.5 -4.0 6.8 Nur-garnteed Privte DebtTobal Ottanding & Olabured .

Coamrecal Banks 0.3 8.6 -6.8 - 4.9

OEMT SEIWIDE RATIO for ISS an

Public debt. Ici. guaranted 8.9Non-9uerented Privet. Oebt ..Total Outstaed,: & Disburaed

Af OF ixi/lE 18R1 EI130IMO, DEEER 198S:

Since M 1976

US$1.00 * ec.70

E01l.00 * US9.37 UndislbursedOutstonding In¢l. Unoditbured

O/ Retlo of Debt Service to Expeta of Goode and Nn-Factor Servlnot.

not e.allablonot appl lceb

SUMMARY AND CONCWJSIONS

i. The economy of Antigua and Barbuda has performed strongly overthe past three years, with average annual growth in excess of 6%. Thisgrowth has been due to the very :obust performance of the tourism sector,with stopover visitors in 1985 over 50% higher than that achieved in 1982.The performance of other secto,s of the economy has been more variable,with agriculture exhibiting good growth in 1985, following the drought of1984 and 1983. Manufacturing, on the other hand, has stagnated, primarilydue to nontinuing trade difficulties within Caricom. Price inflationcontinues to moderate, due to the slower pace of price rise for importedgoods. The rate of price increase in 1985, on a year round average, was0.9/.. To a large extent, there has been moderation in the pace of wageincreases; however, awards in 1984 and 1985 were all substantially abovethe pace of consumer price increase.

ii. In addition to this good overall economic performance, theGovernment has made progress in improving its fiscal situation, withconsolidated public sector savings of 4.6X and 3.1% of GDP in 1984 and1985. In large measure this has been due to a fiscal austerity programthat has successfully constrained the growth in current expenditures andmore effective revenue collection efforts. These efforts, however, werenot sufficient to forestall a further buildup of domestic and externalarrears. In the latter case these stood at US$27.8 million (US$16.9million principal and US$10.9 million interest) at the end of 1985. TheGovernment has sought to address this arrears problem through a refinancingarrangement that would allow for a retirement of much of the Government'sexternal obligations; discussions are still proceeding. A speedyresolution of the issue is expected. To further improve the fiscalsituation, the Government introduced a variety of revenue raising measuresin the latter part of 1985 and early 1986. As a result of these increases,and the expected good economic performeince in 1986, public sector savingsare expected to increase to about 5.6/. of GOP in 1986.

iii. The longer term fiscal framework, however, is subject toconsiderable uncertainty, due to very large external debt commitments thatthe Government has entered into since mid-1985 to undertake four majorprojects. Th.re has been a substantial increase in the public sectorinvestment program for 1986-1988, dominated by'the Deep Bay tiotel, aDesalination/Power Plant, runway resurfacing of the main airport andexpansion of the telephone system. These programs total EC$440.7 million(US$163.2 million) over the three year period, which by the end of 1988will have intcreased Government's external debt to US$141.1 million, or 63%of GDP. The vast majority of this debt has been contracted on commercialterms, with the result that the debt service burden, in respect to likelyfiscal resources, will be onerous (48.4% of Government revenues). Theseverity of this debt service requirement upon overall fiscal performancewill depend, to some extent, upon the future growth of the overalleconomy. However, evon if the economy averages positive real growth inexcess of 5.0% per annum for the next five years, there is a loomingcumulative fiscal gap of about EC$287.2 million (US$106.4 million) for the

- ii -

period 1986 to 1991, excluding any elimination of already accumulated pastdebt service arrears, and assuming that 50Z of public sector investment isfunded from external sources tor the period 1989 to 1991.

iv. While there are many uncertainties and imponderables (the liKelyfuture growth path, the likely size of the annual lease payment for theDeep bay hotel when completed, and the possihle sale of Government assetssuch as the Halcyon Cove Hotel are notable examples), the Government'sshort- to medium-term fiscal situation is far from secure. While an evenstronger overall growth performance over the next five years would reducethe size of the identified cumulative tiscal gap, it is unlikely that afurther buildup of arrears will be avoided unless additional fiscal revenueraising and expenditure cutting measures are introduced, together with arescheduling of some external obligations. The Government has obtained theassistance of an external merchault bank, and is presently seeking aconsolidation and rescheduling. The Government expects this to beconcluded by December 1986.

v. It does not appear that the looming fiscal gap is concomittantlyreflected in a widening external gap, with the possible exception of 1986when large amortization payments are due. As a result of increased tourismrevenues, the current account has improved continually since 1982,recording a deficit of US$11.4 million (-6.3% of GOP) in 1985. Thecountry's terms of trade have improved over the past three years, and thistrend is expected to continue in the short- to medium-term. Merchandiseexports have remained static since 1983, however, the outlook for 1986 ismore promising due to increased exports of agricultural products andexpected growth in enclave garment production.

vi. The tourism sector is experiencing a boom period with the resultthat annual occupancy rates have increased from 58.4% in 1981 to 71.5% in1985. Given the high seasonality inherent in Antiguan tourism, the larger,more efficient hotels must be close to full occupancy in the winterseason. As a result, accommodation capacity could be a constraint onfuture traffic growth. Considerable additional hotel investment, however,is now underway or planned. One of these developments is the Government'sDeep bay hotel project of 350 rooms which is scheduled for completion bymid-1987. Given this expansion, it is expected that occupancy rates couldfall from 1988 out to 199U, and in consequence caution should be exercisedon new hotel construction unless it can be shown to be financially viableat a bU% room occupancy rate. Future growth of stopover visitors dependscrucially upon the future growth of airline seat capacity into Antigua andBarbuda. A rapid increase in this capacity, coupled with increasedmarketing effort by the airlines could forestall a decline in island widehotel occupancy rates.

vii. The agricultural sector achieved significant positive growth in1985, following five years of declining or stagnant output. This has beendue partly to the end of the eavere drought in 1984, but also the gradualintroduction of new crops (cotton and vegetables) and improvements indomestic and external marketing arrangements. A major effort is being

- iii -

made, with external donor assistance, to improve tte country's livestockindustry, which includes decontrol of pricing and institution of moreeffective grading systems. The land tenure problems identified in previouseconomic memoranda are being addressed. The Government has beencontemplating an external tariff on imported beef to encourage the localproduction of high quality beef. Given the already high food prices in thetourism sector, caution should be exercised in implementing such an importsubstituticn policy. The most disappointing sector has been manufacturing,which has suffered from the trade problems in Caricom. ln the early partof 1986, there was an increase in inquiries from potential enclavemanufacturers and some existing manufacturers have had some success inextra-regional markets.

lo Recent Economic Developments

1. Over the past three years, the economy of Antigua and Barbuda hasperformed strongly, with real growth in excess of b% per annum. Theimpetus for this growth has been the very robust performance of the tourismsector, with stopover visitors increasing by 16.2X, 25.2X and 7.bX in 1983,1984 and 1985 respectively. Several factors have contributed to thistourism growth. These include the good performance of the US economy,the additioa of new facilities (the St.James Club, for example) and

increased marketing by operators, togethter with the promotion of specialevents (Antigua International Sailing Week). As a result of this strongperformance, many existing operators plan to increase capacit-y, which,together with the construction of the Deep bay hotel project, shouldprovide a further stimulus to the economy in the immediate future.

2. The performance of other areas of the economy has been morevariable. Agriculture has rebounded well from the drought of 1984, as aresult of increased development of cotton and winter vegetables by localfarmers and foreign investors. Manufacturing, on the other hand, hasstagnated, primarily due to trade difficulties within Caricom, particularlyTrinidad and Tobago. The rate of inflation, as measured by the consumerprice index, has continued to moderate, particularly in the latter part of1985, due to the moderation of intlation in the US (from which mostimported goods are drawn) and falling oil prices. The rate of priceincrease in 1985, on a year round average, was U.9Z. In general, there hasbeen some mDderation in the pace of wage increase in 1984 and 1985,although awards granted in union agreements in 1984 were all substantiallyabove the pace of consumer price increase. Within these agreements, therange for 1985 and 198b was from 4X to IOX. For the Central Government,the last wage adjustment was effective from September 1984, with an averageincrease of 12.5x. A new contract is due in September 19b7.

Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators

(X changes)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

GWP factor cost (1977 prices) 8.0 3.9 -1.3 b.4 b.5 6.7Agriculture - -10.8 -5.7 -0.9 -10.3 13.5Constructicn 24.6 9.9 -38.1 -7.7 4.6 13.3

Stopover tourists -1.6 -2.2 1.7 lb.2 25.2 7.8Exports of Goods NFS 53.1a/ -3.3 U.3 -U.2 24.1 5.5Imports of Goods NFS 41.6a/ 9.2 1.2 -21.9 21.U 11.9Electricity Sales (kwh) 1b.67 7.2 9.2 11.4 j.2 11.1Private Consumption 18.7 7.3 11.3 3.3 -0.3 17.7CkI (period average) 19.2 11.5 4.2 z.3 3.9 U.9

a/ This represents the first full year of shipments from the oil refineryand transhipment facility.

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lle Public Sector Finances and Issues

3. Despite the economy's generally robust performance, the CentralGovernment has encountered considerable fiscal difficulty, particularlyfrom 1980 to 1983. This difficulty reflects sharp increases in the wagebill (September 19b1), large capital expenditures financed primarily oncommercial terms, with the consequent increase in short term debt serviceobligations. As a result of these unfavorable fiscal developments, therehas been a marked buildup of arrears in payments, especially for externalobligations and amounts due to the Social Security Scheme, the MedicalBenefits Scheme and the Antigua Public Utility Authority. The buildup ofexternal arrears has led to a decline in the flows of concessionaryfinancing, and a consequent decline in public capital expendituke.

4. In 1984 and 1965, there was an improvement in overall fiscalperformance, with a consolidated public saving performance of 4.b% and 3.14of GUDP respectively. Much of this improvement stemmed from the continuedimprovement in overall economic performance due to the growth in touristvisitors. This improvement was reflecte" in increases in corporate taxes,consumption taxes, import duties and hotel and guest taxes. To a largeextent, the Central Government has constrained the growth in currentexpenditures, particularly in 1984. A freeze on public sector hiring hasbeen in effect since 1964 and more stringent budget control and monitoringprocedures have been introduced. These efforts, however, have not beensufficient to forestall a further buildup of domestic and external

Table 2: Public Sector Performance

(% of GDP m.p.)

1980 1981 19b2 1983 1984 1985

Current Account balance 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.9 4.6 3.1Gen. Government a/ -1. . -0.7 -0.5 1.9 1.1of which, Cen. Govt. -4.6 -3., -3.7 -3.2 -0.7 -1.3

Pub. Enterprises 2.3 2.2 1.3 1.4 z.7 2.0

Current Revenue (Cen. Gov.) 22.2 24.7 26.6 22.6 23.5 24.4Tax 16.5 18.7 19.4 18.1 19.1 .1.2Non-tax 5,7 t.0 7.1 4.5 7.4 4.2

Current Expen. (Ceu. Gov.) 2b.8 28.2 30.3 25.7 24.3 25.7Wages 11.6 11.0 12.3 11.3 11.1 [0,3Interest 4.6 5.2 7.3 4.9 2.2 2.7Capital Expenditure(all public sector) 9.1 16.2 13.6 b.9 6.0 8.9

Memo ItemMarginal Tax Rate b/ 17.3 38.0 27.5 5.2 2b.8 30.0Tax buoyancy c/ 104.5 203.2 141.0 28.7 140.3 148.5

a/ Includes Social Security and Medical benefits.b/ Change in tax revenue divided by change in GDP x 100.c/ Marginal tax rate divided by the tax/GDP ratio x 100.

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arrears. These external arrears increased by US$9.2 million in 1985(UbSS4.3 million in interest and USS*4.9 million in due principalpayments). With regard to domestic arrears, contribution arrears to theSocial Security and Medical benefits increased by EC*3.5 million and EC42.bmillion respectively. With regard to the Antigua Public Utility Authority(APUA), there is a dispute with the Ministry of Finance as to what themonthly utility charges should be, and discussions are proceeding to reducethe arrears accumulation of ECU7.2 million.

5. To bring about further improvements in the Central Government'sfiscal positior, a number of revenue raising measures were introduced inthe latter part of 1965 and early '9bb. A customs services tax of 2.57 onall imports, excluding capital gocds of a value in excess ot SC41UU,UOO,has been introduced (Act 6 of 1966); a new property tax act becameeffective from the 1st March, 1986, and the Stamp Amendment Act 19d6 hasintroduced a 3X tax on loans by local banks to non-residents. Furthermore,the Kevenue (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act of 1985 has raised a variety oflicense fees and annual charges, and the powers of the tax collectionauthorities have been increased to allow a speedier sequestation ofproperty and increased the penalties for non-payment. In addition theGovernment is seeking to improve the Property Tax System, with a reviseivaluation system presently being implemented. As a result of theseincreases, and the expectations of good economic performance in 19db, thel986 budget projects a substantial increase in revenue from BC§$1b.6million in 1965 to LC§156.9 million in 79d6 (an increase of 34x). Currentexpenditure is also expected to rise, but at a slower pace (1.5X), witnthe result that a positive current account balance of BC§12.2 million isbudgeted. Whether the expected signiticant rise in current revenues isfully realized remains to be seen. Nevertheless the measures introducedare appropriate, which, together with continued vigilance on currentexpenditures, should better the fiscal performance of 19db.

b. To this generally positive outlook, however, considerable fiscaluncertainty remains due to the very large increase in public sectorexternal debt that has been committed to since mid-19d5. This increase isexternal debt is to be utilized for four major projects. These are listedbelow.

(i) A desalination/power plant turnkey project is underway, withfinancing of US$43.2 million provided by 'the equipment suppliers andguaranteed by the Japanese Export Import bank (US"17.7 million bearsinterest of 14X, to be amortized by the end of 19b8 and the remainder atd%, to be amortized over 1U years). Iz is not known whether a teasibilitystudy was undertaken to ascertain whether this project is the most costeffective solution to improving Antigua's water supply. based on a cabinetsubmission showing AFUA financial projections, APUA believes it will beable to service these obligations, provided the Central Government pays allutility charges. Water tariffs can be periodically adjusted (it is plannedby APUA for a charge of BC*17*U per l,OUU gallons for domestic users andEC$40.0 per 1,000 gallons for commercial users in 1987; the rates as ofDecember 19M4 are EC412.0 and EC$2J.0 respectively). Cabicaet agreement orapproval tor these rate adjustments will be needed, however, and as notedabove, there has, as yet, been no agreement be. -ien APUA and the Ministryof Finance as to the appropriate taritfs tor eleetricity and water usage.The Government provision in the 1986 budget for APUA charges is EC§3.Umillion, but APUA estimates tnese charges will be between LC47.U to 8(Ubd.0

-4-

million. APUA has generated a surplus on operations every year since 1980,however, this result does not include debt service on past borrowings forequipment. Further, non-payment of utility charges by the CentralGovernment has created liquidity difficulties for the Authority.

(ii) As of July 1985, construction has started on the Deep BayHotel project, for which the Government has borrowed approximately US"46.Umillion from a commercial bank syndicate, guaranteed by the Italian ExportCredit Agency (Libor plus 2.5%, with two years' grace and a six yearamortization period). The Government plans to meet the debt service fromthe lease of the 35U room hotel to an operator. Preliminary analysis bythe mission based on a variety of tourist industry norms, suggests thatfull debt service coverage by the likely lease payment will be difficultand recourse to consolidated Central Government's revenues will benecessary. To meet this possibility, the Government might seek torefinance the loan, once the construction is completed with a longer debtcumulat4zation period. This would improve the possibility that futurelease payments would cover the debt service.

(iii) During 198b, the runway at the airport is to beresurfaced, together with associated engineering works. This project isfinanced by a loan from a French commercial bank for US11.1 million,repayable over seven years, with two years' grace and bearing an interestrate of I1.29 during amortization. Debt service tor this loan will comefrom Central Government consolidated revenues.

(iv) A major telecommunications improvement is underway, with aUS41U.0 million loan from the supplier's financing arm, at Libor plus Z.54with a "balloon" principal repayment in 1996. Servicing of this obligationshould be drawn from future telephone charges of the telephone division ofAPUA.

'. iy mid-1987, when all these projects are completed, together witha small suppliers credit for US4U.5 million for electricity generators, theGovernment's external debt will have increased by approximately US110.0million, to about 79% of GDV, compared to 36Z of GDP at the end of 1985(notincluding accumulated arrears). Most of this additional debt is oncommercial terms, and, in some cases has a very short repayment period.Furthermore, despite the steady improvement in the Government's fiscalperformance in 1944 and 1983, debt service on already existing debt has notbeen sufficient to avoid a further accumulation of arrears, which totalledUS$27.8 million by the end of 1985. In order to solve the present arrearsproblems, the Government has entered into tentative discussions withexternal and domestic commercial banks for a loan of US4100.0 million, tobe used to retire past obligations. This had not been finalized at thetime of the mission. Government's efforts to solve the arrears problem,however, are to be commended and a speedy resolution of the issue is hopedfor. Government external debt service obligations in 1965 were US$11.0million, equivalent to 8.9% of the exports of goods and services, or 2U.bXof General Government revenues and public enterprise surpluses. This debtservice obligation will increase substantially, particularly between 1987to 1991, and the Government's ability to avoid a further accumulation ofarrears will depend both upon the future performance of the economy and thesuccess of the revenue enhancement and expenditure curtailment programsintroduced in 1985 and early 1986. As has been shown in the past, the

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tourist sector, and hence, the economy, has been subject to considerableshort-term volatility and variabilty. While the present short-term outlookfor tourism in the Caribbean is good, it behooves the Government to adopt aconservative fiscal policy that will continue to restrain the growth incurrent expenditures and seek additional sources of revenue.

I1I. balance of Payments

8. In keeping with the robust growth of the economy over the pastthree years, the current acount of the balance of payments has improvedsince 1982, recording a deticit of US~b11.4 million (-b.39 of GOP) in 1985,compared to US441.7 million (-32% of GUP) in 1982. Merchandise importsdeclined significantly in 1983, following completion of certain capitalprojects and lower public and private investment. As investmentaccelerated in 1984 and 1985, and with the increased tourism activity in1985, imports have again increased (5.8X higher than 1982). Given thegrowth in real income over this period, however, this import growth islower than might be expected and may indicate two phenomena. First, thatthe country'c terms of trade continues to improve, with the result thatthe nominal growth in imports understates the physical volumes, whencompared to the growth in nominal GOP. Second, that domestic linkages withthe tourism sector may have increased. Preliminary discussions andobservations indicate that the local agricultural sector has improved itssales of vegetables and fruits to the hotel sector in 1985 as outputimproved following the drought of 1984.

9. Merchandise exports have remained static (declining in realterms) since 1983 due to the curtailment of oil refining activity inAntigua and the trade difficulties encountered within the Caricom region.Many manufacturers in the country are seeKing extra-regional markets, butprogress has been slow. The outlook for 198b may be more promising, withincreased exports of winter vegetables, cotton and garments. Receipts fromtourism, however, have grown dramatically, from US49.5 million in 19b2 toUS41U1.6 million in 1985 (an increase of IU5.JA). This increase is due toboth an increase in the number of visitors and an increase in average dailyexpenditures and average length of stay.

IV. hector Policy Issues

10. Tourism. The tourist sector is the most important in theeconomy, employing an estimated 2,5UU persons in hotels and another 1,70Uin activities providing direct services for tourists, such as localtransport, retail sales, sports and leisure, restaurants andentertainment. Furthermore, as the sector is presently undergoing asubstantial expansion in caracity, it is estimated that 1,20U constructionand equipment workers will be employed over the next five years. Thesector has grown steadily over the past five years, with stopover airarrivals, the most important category, increasing from 84,724 in 1961 to139,726 in 1985, an average annual growth rate of 9.7X. The bulk of thisincrease took place in 1983 and 1984 so that by 1985 the growth ratedeclined to 7.8X, possibly constrained by the available supply ofaccommodations, particularly during the nigh season (December 15 to 4pril15). The number of cruise passengers visiting the country has alsorebounded in 1986, and cruise ship cails scheduled for 198b suggest thatthe 1961 record traffic level may be exceeded. The bulk of visitors arefrom the United States (52.2/) and the US has shown the most dynamic

- 6 -

growth, doubling from 32,162 to b4,296 between 1961 and 19b4 and increasinga further 1i.79 to 73,065 in 198J. howeve , Antigua and Barbuda touristmarkets are somewhat more diversified than for other destinations in theregion and marketing policy is not neglecting Europe. This market is

tapped via air services through London, but in 19b5 direct service wasintroduced to Zurich and Frankfurt which should further enhance market

potential.

11. The supply of rooms changed little between 1%li and 19b.,numbering 1,994 and Z,lOU respectively, with the result that since traftichas increased rapidly since .9b3, occupancy rates have increased from 55.4.in that year to 71.5Z in the latter year. Given the high seasonality

inherent in Antiguan tourism, the larger, more efficient hotels, must havebeen achieving close to full occupancy during the past winter season.Thus, accommodation capacity could have become a constraint on futuretratfic growth. However, consideraole additional hotel investment is nowunderway or planned. Much of this additional capacity cannot be expectedto be available before the 19b7/o8 winter season, with some plannedextensions to existing hotels available for the 19bb/87 season, with tne

result that if stayover visitor growth continues at the pace ot the pastthree years, annual occupancy rates could again rise in 19d6. From 1967onwards (with a planned addition ot a further 774 rooms in this year)

occupancy rates could fall quite dramatically between 19d6 to 1990.Mission estimates suggest, therefore, that caution should be exercised on

new hotel projects unless they can be shown to be financially viable at a

bUX room occupancy rate. Alternatively, some of the larger hotel projects,not yet underway, could be delayed a few years. Much depends upon the rateof increase of airline seat capacity to the country. if this expandsrapidly, together with increased airline promotional efforts, a decline inisland wide occupancy rates could be forestalled.

Table 3: Commercial Accommodations by Number ot Kooms

Type lybi 19b2 19b3j 194 19bS

Hotels 1,684 1,7u2 i,olU 1,bb4 1,7ZU

Apartments lbb Z1b 2zu Z4Z 2b0

Guest Houses 142 loo 139 12b 1__o

TOTAL 1,194 L,0b6 1,9b9 Z,U52 Z,lbb

Occupancy Rates

(4) WO.6 45,0 55.4 b7.9 71.5

Source: antigua Department of Tourism and Mission estimates.

12. The Government's role in the tourist sector is multifaceted.

Apart from the usual regulatory and promotional functions, it is alsoInvolved in hotel investment. In 19o4, it sold the Halycon Reef Hotel torUS>3.0 million to the bt. James Club and it owns the 153 room halcyon Covehlotel and Casino, which is leased to an operator for Zb years. Tne leasepayments have not been sufficient to cover the necessary debt service.Negotiations are In an advanced stage to sell the hotel to the present

operators, who hope to add an additional 75 rooms, which would improve thehotel's viability. As noted previously, the Government is undertaKing

- 7 -

another major hotel development at Deep bay. This project consists ot 3JLrooms, comprising 274 rooms in two nine-tloor blocks and 19 villas of tourrooms each, together with four restaurants, a casino and extensive leisureand sports facilities. It is due for completion by mid-1987; at thetime of the mission an operator had not been selected. This selectionsthould not be delayed, as an operator needs to provide inputs into thedetailed finishes in accordance with their own management requirements andpractices.

13. Another major project on which the Government wishes to embark isa redevelopment of the main, downtown part of the capital city of St.Johns. This plan is intended to provide shopping, restaurant andentertainment facilities for tourists and also to enhance amenitiesutilized by the local population. The St. Johns Development Corporationwas established in February 1986 and is to be responsible for overalldevelopment. A variety of proposals have been made for this urbanredevelopment, including the relocation of residents, land reclamation, anew road network and construction of an entirely new section of the city.Tentative plans suggest that works will be completed over a ten yearperiod, with an estimated cost, in current dollars, of EC$146.0 millioLn.

14. With regard to overall administration, the Department of Tourismhas now been tully absorbed into the Ministry of Tourism so that thedevelopmental, regulatory and promotional activities may be bettercoordinated. This Ministry wishes to establish a statistical and researchunit and is seeking technical assistance in this regard. In the 19b6budget, it was reiterated that, of the bi tax on hotel bills, IA/ would beallocated to the Ministry of Tourism for marketing promotion.

15. Agriculture. This sector achieved significant positive growth in19b5, following tive years of declining or stagnant output. This was dueto the end of the severe drought in 1984, and the gradual introduction ofnew crops (vegetables, cotton) and improvement in domestic and externalmarketing arrangements. Fruit and vegetable output continued to improve,with the Central Marketing Corporation developing an export market in Miamifor okra, peppers and cucumbers. Initial quality grading problems appearto have been overcome, although there is a need for further cold storagefacilities. A USAID technical assistance program providing extensionservices on irrigation and production of vegetables appears to have beenquite effective. Further, in 1965, a foreign investor has established anoperation employing 70 persons, on 2UU acres (zuchini, string beans, cherrytomatoes, melons) for shipment to Europe. This investor has plans forfurther expansion.

16. As part of the general diversification in the utilization ofsugarcane lands, the cultivation of sea island cotton has progressed well,with 350 acres under production in 19b5/bb. All output is sold to Japanand plans are afoot to increase acreage up to 1,000 within the next twoyears. A problem remains, however, in tinding sufticient labor forharvesting. With regard to livestock, a number of developments are underway to address obstacles outlined in the previous economic memorandum. Apaper has been submitted to Cabinet covering marketing arrangements andpricing policy, in which the recommendation is for price decontrol and

institution of more eftective grading systems. A recent study has shownthat the local cost of production of high quality beef is between 3UZ to4UV higher than the c.i.f. price for imported beef. As a result, theGovernment is considering the imposition of an equivalent tariff in orderto encourage the local production of high quality beef. Given the alreadyhigh food prices in the tourism sector, caution should be exercised in thisimport substitution policy. The Government has alleged that beef is often"dumped" in Antigua, and other parts of the Caribbean, when extra-regionalimports have failed to gain entry into the US market due to failure to meetcertain FDA standards. To the extent that this is prevalent, some sort ofanti-dumping policy may be appropriate.

17, The land tenure problem raised in previous economic memoranda isbeing addressed, with the format for four standardized leases completedwith final Cabinet decision pending. The granting of leases will be withinthe Ministry of Agriculture, which should reduce administrative delays.Nevertheless, the Lands Division needs further strengthening. A study onland use and capability has been completed, with the result thatinformation is now available for proper zoning. An agricultural census andproduction study, undertaken by an OAS consultant, should be availablesoon. Also a water resource study tor agricultural use has been completed,and a cost of production and small livestock study are under way. on theinstitutional side, a planning unit has been approved by Cabinet. kiowever,technical assistance is needed in the form of planners, project andextension officers. The most disappointing area of performance has been infisheries, with the Antigua Fisheries no longer eftectively operational. Afisheries development plan has been completed by FAU. tiowever, a fisheriesofficer is needed to implement the plan. A shrimp farm has started, withforeign and domestic investment, and the first harvest was drawn inDecember 1985.

18. Manutacturiag. The light manufacturing sector composed ofgarment, furniture, appliance and electronic production and assembly hasstagnated over the last three years, due primarily to trade problems witi.inCaricom and the import licensing system introduced in Trinidad and Tobago.In the early part of l986, there has been an increase in inquiries frompotential enclave manufacturers, and some existing manufacturers have hadsome success in extra-regional markets, particularly in furniture andelectronics. The Government is seeking to sell some of the factories inthe industrial park at Coolidge to the present tenants, by which it ishoped arrears owing to CDb may be eliminated. This approach is appropriateinsofar as it will make available funds for further factory shellconstruction. Government institutional support to the development of thesector needs strengthening, which could be achieved by a consolidation ofappropriate promotion and service tunctions into a single industrialdevelopment unit. There is a full range of investment incentivesavailable, in commuon with other uECS countries, including a scheme tor wagesubsidization during an initial three month training period. The smalldomestic market size inhibits development of the sector and as a result,enclave manufacturing for the export market offers the greatestopportunities for expansion. In this context, appropriate foreigninvestment programs will be crucial for further development.

- 9 -

V. Public Sector Investment Program

19. The public sector investment program tor 1Ybb-196b is dominatedby four projects (Deep bay hotel, Desalination/Power Plant, RunwayResurfacing and Telephone Expansion), totaling EC$440.7 million over thethree year period, most of it occurring in 19bb and 19b7 (EC§166.2 andEC$216.1 respectively). Despite the turnkey nature of these largeprojects, the economy should reflect this major stimulus over the nextthree years, although there is a significant projected decline in publicinvestment in 1988. In part, this reflects the generally weakinstitutional capability of the Government in project identification anddevelopment. The responsibilities of the Planning Unit in the Ministry ofEconomic Planning are not clearly defined and it is not equipped toexercise a lead role in preparation and monitoring of projects in thePSIP. In most instances, little economic impact or least cost alternativeanalysis is undertaken, with the result that some projects are of limitedor marginal economic and financial viability. Too often, individualMinistries, or their respective public enterprises, develop projects andseek financing (mostly on commercial terms) outside of any significantcoordination with other relevant sections of the Government, such as theMinistry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development. There isneed for a more coordinated project development and monitoring system thatwould allow for a regular review of progress of the PSI? and liaison withthe public debt monitoring unit created in the Ministry of Finance.Establishment of such a monitoring system should improve the pace ofimplementation of projects, particularly when specific policy actions areneeded by cabinet.

20 Public sector capital expenditure increased in 19b5 to b.9% ofGDP, reversing the declining trend in public investment that had beenexhibited since 1982. all of this increase in 1965, however, may beaccounted for by preliminary work on the Deep Bay Hotel project and theland purchases associated with it. Once this project is subtracted, 1905capital expenditures continued tne decline in real terms, and to a largeextent this was manifested in further deterioration of the supportinginfrastructure, particularly roads and utility services. To a largeextent, the PSIP for 19bb-8b is designed to address these issues andforestall any further deterioration and rehabilitate that already inexistence. Given that a large proportion of the public sector investmentprogram is for projects in the utilities sector, it is expected that therecurrent cost implications for the Central Government will be minimized.however, as noted in previous sections of this report, the debt serviceimplications are much more problematic.

21. it is planned to spend ECA242.2 million, or 54.9X of the programon economic Infrastructure. Over half of this is directed at increasingthe supply and improving the 'distribution of water in the country. TheUSAID-financed water supply expansion project is expected to end in l9bb,and involved rehabilitation and development of groundwater sources,transmission, storage and treatment facilities and institutionaldevelopment of APUA. The Government's major policy with respect to water,as manifested by the desalination plant project, is on the development ofnew sources as opposed to the rehabilitation of existing sources. As notedpreviously in the text, it is nct clear that the approach adopted

- 10 -

represents the least cost, most etficient alternative. The other main areaof infrastructural development is in the transportation sector. Roadreconstruction is being implemented with the support of the EuropeanDevelopment Fund and the United Kingdom. Phase I entails therehabilitation of 1 miles of main roads radiating trom St. Johns. Themain airport runway is to, be resurfaced, together with an extension of theparking apron and an engineering study for a new taxiway. The country'stelephone system is undergoing expansion and modernization, utilizingcommercial funding, and is scheduled for completion in 1986.

Table 4: Summary of Public Sector Investment Program by Sector1986-1988

Amount

Directly Productive Projects 179,629 4U.8Agriculture 14,918 3.4Manufacturing 2,745 0.6Tourism 161,966 36.8

Economic Infrastructure 242,165 54.9Transportation 71,085 1b.1Energy 1Z,771 2.9Communications 3U,200 .9Water and Sewerage 125,30U 28.4Other Economic Services 2,809 U.6

Social Infrastructure I?,6b9 4.'.Health and Community Services 1,298 0.3Education 5,347 1.2dousing 6,600 1.5Public Safety 3,464 0.8Other 2,260 0 5

TOTAIL 440,7b3 10O.U

22. In the category of directly productive projects, the touristsector predominates due to the Deep bay hotel project. This project is duefor completior. in mid-1987. In agriculture, livestock development remainsthe main focus. The livestock development project financed by the EuropeanDevelopment Fund is expected to begin in 1987. The project has beendelayed, in order for the Government to review and modify its policiesconcerning land tenure and pricing. As noted earlier in the text, theseissues are being addressed by Government. The project itself entails thedevelopment of communal cattle production centers and the provision ofinputs, supplies and veterinary support.

VI. Technical Assistance Program

23. The ongoing technical assistance program is generally projectrelated, and is concentrated in agriculture, education and tourism. Thisemphasis is appropriate, and results to date suggest that the response to

- 11 -

this technical assistance has been very productive, particularly inagriculture. With regard to the proposed program, this emphasis basicallyremains unchanged. Considerable assistance is needed in improvingvocational skills development capacity and direct assistance for the APUA,with donors, as yet unidentified. Given the very large capital programsbeing undertak-n by APUA over the next two years, the need for technicalassistance to assist in improvement of the companies' operating efficiencyis vital. Also assistance is needed in the rinistry of Tourism to improvethe statistical data base and provide advice on future strategies and inthe Ministry of Economic Development to assist in overall macro-economicand project planning.

VII. Medium Term Policies and Prospects

24. The medium term economic policy framework for Antigua and Barbudawill continue to be dominated by fiscal management issues, the severity ofwhich will be dependent upon the future performance of the economy,particularly the tourism sector. In order to evaluate the scope of policyactions, economic projections covering the period 1986 to 1995 have beendeveloped (these are shown in Annex II). In these projections, the robustgrowth recorded over the past three years is assumed to continue up to1990, with a slight moderation in the pace of growth thereafter.Furthermore, within the context of the projection scenario, the ambitiousGovernment targets for fiscal revenue (an increase in current revenuesequivalent to about 35% of GDP in 198b from 28.U% in 1985) in the latestbudget are assumed to be realized, and that this improvement will holdthroughout the projection period. Two other important caveats warrantmention. First, a future lease payment to the Government for the Deep BayHotel has not been included in the projections, due to the greatuncertainty as to its likely magnitude. Second, it has been assumed stateenterprise savings i;ill increase by about 10% per annum. This may beconservative given the recent decline in oil prices and the possibilitiesfor significant rate adjustments in electricity and water tariffs andimprovements in operating efficiencies. The policy issues that derive fromthese projections, and the analysis in other parts of this report, arediscussed below.

(i) The massive increase in public sector investment in 1986 auid1987, and the associated increase in external debt, will impose asignificant burden on fiscal resources. Over the period 1986 to 1991 acumulative fiscal gap of about EC$287.2 million is indicated. Thisexcludes any program of elimination of past arrears. Amortization ofexternal public sector debt over this period totals EC$267.0 million. lf afurther buildup in external arrears is to be avoided, additional fiscalrevenue measures and public utility rate adjustments will be necessary,together with a significant rescheduling of external obligations.

- 12 -

CHART 1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - BXTBRNAL DEBT

U

80 78.7

75

70

65

60

55

48.450 A

45 1 40.7

40

35

30 32.2 /I~ ~~ I

25 1 Z-t , _,_ - 13.2

10 10 g '-8''\ *'. < .' / > +.,.-' -- '\ .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......... 6.5

5 ..... -.7>^2. ___5.8

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

ARREARS ACCUMULATION

US$ Mllllons 27.8

25 25

20 0 s18.6 K1Y:20 _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Total Debt/GDP

15 Debt Servce/ _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~Govt.Reveaue

lo eL .5r Iterest/Govt. Revenue6..5..

= _ = _ - 1nterest ~~~~~~~~~~~~Debt Service/_,_

o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Exports GNFS1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

- 13 -

Table 5: Public Sector Financing Requirements a/(SCA millions)

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Pub. Sector Cap. gxp. 188.9 216.1 35.8 bz.7 b9.2 75.6Amortization 1b.9 43.5 81.5 40.8 40.8 42.4Financing Requirement 207.8 259.6 137.3 103.5 110.0 116.U

SourcesPub. Sector Savings 28.4 35.1 38.7 42.9 47.3 51.7Indentifed External 161.3 204.8 38.8 - - -Gap -18.1 -19.7 -59.8 -60.b -b2.7 -66.3

a/ based upon macroeconomic projections as shown in Annex II.

(ii) Alternatively, the estimated fiscal gap could be teduced bya significant reduction in either current or capital expenditures. In thelatter category, it is worth noting, however, that in the projections thereal capital expenditures in 1990 are only 4.5% higher than that recordedin 1982.

(iii) The Government has undertaken a program to sell a varietyof Government assets, including factory shells and the Halcyon Cove tiotel,for which negotiations are presently underway. These actions, ifsuccessful, will release resources which could be utilized to eliminate aportion of past debt service arrears. This policy of sale of Government

assets, if continued, would further reduce the magnitude of the projectedfiscal gap.

(iii) The looming fiscal gap is not concomittantly reflected ina looming external gap. The favorable medium term outlook for tourism andthe continued moderation in import prices, should lead to a furtherstrengthening of the balance of payments. While the current accountdeficit increases significantly in 198b and 1987 as a result of imports torthe four major projects cited earlier, there is a steady improvement up to1992. Thereafter, this trend is reversed for the remainder of theprojection period, due primarily to projected rising import prices,particularly fuel (import price projections have been drawn from World Bankcommodity price projections and manufactures unit value index).

(iv) With regard to sector policy issues, the Government hasmade progress in addressing impediments identified in previous economicmemoranda. Utilization of sugar lands for cotton ana vegetable productionis progressing well. Land tenure problems are b^tng addressed, a varietyof land use and production studies have now been completed that shouldallow for proper zoning policies to be introduced. Further, public sectorinstitutional reforms have been undertaken in agriculture and tourism thatshould improve developmental support to both sectors. More attention,however, needs to be directed toward strengthening the industrial promotionfunction and more effectively coordinating the various sections of

- 14..

Government that have an input into the industrial promotion function.Overall, however, the sectoral policy framework is appropriate.

z5. The growth scenario outlined above is one of many possibleoutcomes for the Antiguan economy over the next decade. What is evident,is that the overall performance of the economy, and, to a large extent theGovernment's fiscal performance, will be crucially dependent upon theperformance of the tourism sector. As has been shown in the past, theperformance of this sector is highly variable on a year to year basis,imparting considerable uncertainty to year by year growth performance.Given the country's single sector dependence, which is likely to continue,Government's fiscal policy needs to be framed in the context that there isa high probability that there will be large variations in economic growthon a year to year basis. This implies tight control on expenditure growth,with particular emphasis on the recurrent cost implications of capitalexpenditures and a current expenditure budget that retains a high degree offlexibility on a year to year basis. To illustrate these issues a furthereconomic scenario was projected utilizing lower levels of GDP growth.Instead of average growth of 5.1X per annum from 1986 to 19V5, a lowergrowth of 3.i% per annum was utilized. In this case, the cumulative fiscalgap from l9bb to 1991 increases to about EC$2U8.OU million, which maKesAntigua and Barbuda's creditworthiness even more uncertain. Furthermore,performance of the current account of the balance of payments is not sorobust, becoming negative in 1993, with the deficit increasing thereafter.

- 15 -

Table 6: Macroeconomic Projections

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

GD)P (fact;or cost)growth 0.5 6.7 b.0 b.1 5.4 5.b 5.5 4.5

(EC$ Millions)

National AccountsGDP (mp) real 258.5 275.7 292.3 310.3 327.2 345.5 364.6 381.1Investment 64.5 79.3 164.8 178.9 94.2 100.0 105.6 110.3Public 14.5 24.3 106.5 117.0 29.0 31.1 32.b 34.3Private 50.0 55.0 58.3 61.9 b5.3 b8.9 72.7 7b.0Consumption 221.6 240.U 253.1 258.7 270.7 283.1 296.0 30b.6Public 44 3U.3 59 4W.-6 b69.2 73.0 77.1 b1.4 85.1Private 177.3 189.1 188.5 189.5 197.7 206.0 214.6 223.5

Domestic Savings(7 GDP) 14.3 13.0 13.4 16.6 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.U

(% of GDP nominal)

Public FinancesPub. Sector Savings 4.6 3.1 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2Capital Expen. 5.6 8.8 3b.4 37.7 b.9 9.0 9.0 9.0

(. of GJP nominal)

Balance of PaymentsExports GNFS 71.1 69.6 72.5 74.8 76.5 76.1 79.8 80.7Import GNFS 82.3 83.2 103.7 103.2 73.6 74.2 74.8 77.0Current BOP -3.8 -8.2 -27.8 -2'5.6 5.5 7.8 9.5 7.9

External DebtExternal Debt(% of GDP m.p.) 31.8 3b.4 58.5 78.7 63.0l 56.2 ,U. 46.1Debt Service/Exports GNFS 5.0 8.9 11.8 16.5 23.5 11.3 9.6 8.9Debt Service/Govt. Revenue a/ 16.4 21.2 23.6 33.2 48.4 23.7 20.5 19.3

a/ General Government current revenues plus public enterprise savings.

- 16 -

ANNEX I

Public Sector Investment and Technical Assistance Programs

- 17 -Annex IPage 1 of 8

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - ONGOING(EC$ 'OGO)

External Financing Local Financing Terms and ConditlonsTotal Interest Amort. GraceCost Amount Source Amount S Rate Period Period

Agriculture

Agri. Input Revolving Fund 117 17 10 GrantLand Development 600 600 1i0Agri. Equip. - Sugar Corp. 600 600 auppilers

credit

Peanut Project 195 195 100

Livestock Improvement 1,797 1,312 USAID 485 27 Grant

Agri. Production -

Taiwan Counterpart 152 152 100Laboratory Extension 700 700 100

Cotton Industry Project 1,814 1,814 100Rehab. of Agrl.-Llvostock 100 100 FAO cGantFisheries Industry D*v. 9.730 9,372 CoB 358 4 4 15 5

Sugar Industry 270 270 100

Industry

Extension of Factory Shells 265 265 UK GrantFactory Shall Construction 5,091 5,091 100

Tourlsm

Handieraft Centre 737 486 USAID 251 34 G?antGuset House - Barbuda 1,020 1,020 OPECEnglish Harbor Study 19S 195 CIDA Grant

Deep Bay Hotel Project 156,171 153,049 Bank Syndicate 3,122 2 LIBOR + 2.5X 6 3

Nolsons Dockyard Infrast. 70 70 UK Grant

Transport

Fire Fighting Equip.-Barbuda 150 ISO UK Grant

Navigational Aids - Alrport 869 869 CIDA GrantPort Authority - Cap. Exp. 668 668 100Telecomm Equip. - Coolidge 774 774 UK GrantImprvmts. - Barbuda Airport 50 50 100

Runway Resurfacing 29,984 29,984 Comm. Bank 10.25/11.2 7 2

Port Handling Equip. 740 740 CIDA Grant

Read Reconstruction 7,000 7,000 EDF GrantAirport Ancililary Infras. 3,118 3,118 100

- 18 -Annex I

Page 2 of 8

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMEN' PROGRAM - ONGOINO (Contd.)

(EC$ '000)

External Financing Local Financing Terms and Conditions

Total Interest Amort. GraceCost Amount Source Amount X Rate Period Period

Utility Services

Desalination Plant 116,650 116,650 Comm. and 14.0 & 8.0 3 & 10 1 & 3

Japan EX-IMCassada Garden Generators 2,565 2,565 Comm. Bank

Wind Power Project 421 421 CD8 (USAID) Grent

Water Distrlbutlon 11 11,616 11,584 Trinadad/Tobago 32 3Emergency Rellf - Barging 1,691 1,291 Multiple 400 24 Grant

Water Supply Expansion 16,927 11,927 USAID 5,000 30 Grant &

LoanCassada Garden Drainage 600 600 100

Standby Generators-Barbuda 1,000 1,000 UK Grant

Telephone Expansion 1 2,000 2,000 CIDA GrantTelephone Expansion 11 30,200 27,000 Private 3,200 11 LIBOR + 2.5X 1 Pymt.

In 1996

Education

Construction of Classrooms 202 202 100

Urilngs School 695 605 UK 90 13 GrantBasic Needs Trust Fund 2,808 2,808 COB Grant

Renovation of Otters School 430 430 100

St. Johns All Age School 420 420 100Reconst. Clove Hall School 1,243 1,243 UK Grant

New St. Johns Primary School 387 387 100

Health

Vehicles - Health 1,298 1,298 100Holberton Hospital - Other 630 630 100Mental Hospital 206 206 100

Holberton Hosp.-Child Ward 1,671 1,671 100Health & Family Lile Unit 51 26 UN 25 50 Grant

Family Planning Project 254 254 USAID Grant

Recreation Area Improvement 344 344 100

- 19 -Annex I

Page 3 of 8

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - ONGOING (Contd.)

(ECJ '000)

External Financing Local Financing Terms and Conditions

Total Interest Amort. Grace

Cost Amount Source Amount S Rate Period Period

Administration

Treasury Computers 797 797 100

Independence Arch. 109 109 100

Min. of Finance Bldg. 853 853 100

Courthouse RehabilitatIon 200 110 UK 90 45

Govt. Bidge. Renovation 1,000 1,000 100

New Legislative Bldg. 667 545 UK 122 18 Grant

Government Prlntery_ 1,330 1,330 UK Grant

Soclal Security Bldg. 3,200 3,200 100

Miscellaneous

ABOB Equity NW/Global Crdt. 498 498 CDB

Low Income Housing - ABDO 2,425 2,425 100

Housing - Chapa 5,749 5,749 100

Land & Building Purchases 1,836 1,836 100

Funding Scheme 6,095 6,095 100

Fire & Rescue Equip. 2,897 2,897 100

Police VehIcles 222 222 100

Other Sundry Capital Exp. 1,783 67 1,716 96

- 20 -Annex I

Page 4 of 8

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - NEW

(EC '000)

External Financing Local Flnancing Terms and Conditions

Total Interest Amort. GraceCoat Amount Source Amount X Rate Period Period

Agriculture

Livestock Development 11 3,742 3,144 EDF 598 16 Grant

Corn-Sorghum Pilot Research 451 UNKNOWNGoat/Sheep Farming 464 UNKNOWN

Livestock Industry 11 2,489 2,241 coB 248 10 4 15 5

Small Farmers Irrigation 2,970 2,700 CDB 270 9 4 15 5

Tourism

English Harbor Park Proj. 8,400 8,400 UK/CIDA Grant

Transport

Airport Taxiway 19,000 19,000 UNKNOWN

Air Traffic Control Radar 5,400 5,400 UNKNOWNRoad Reconstruction 11 8,000 8,000 EDF 6rant

Utility Services

Barbuda Electricity 756 756 UK Grant

Electtlcity Distribution 9,450 9,450 UNKNOWN

Education

Rehab. Bendalls School 1,323 1,323 UK Grant

Miscellaneous

Police Radios 567 567 UK Grent

-1 ~ ~~ 333 333 3 Xaj0 ^ IIJ ~ ~ ... .2 2

;X , f P Bt zg 1 I

! | , ,1. .... ~i , I...,.

| i s ~~~1 5 S...1 & 4t. !~~~~~ - SI 1X|....}g|J cat5 ! SS 0ti s!' -i a.| - -x

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1111 1 1 1}0 fl

A"" I

- 23 - Pep 7 400

LIST Ow NWO£0 1A583)88 C-OATIOlt PMS

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EXIMWS FIM;lSs aRAlota vAsCIflATIItt

TITEYUCT TOTA IlARIS OTSm MA&UlaATIEW PF"UCT

BICI ttT WA.. awV STAFbT .0T188 88) S8F8 lUffR4WT t01 (2)

Agrl..ltur (AN)}

mt. Mo8. '8. t.e A0. D.. "a W43 C8 Crt 8C 1w WS ePtoo884 ArIsltol 8.#_b1t80. otn8800 AM tto(.84- OtJT1 ACRtm

t54r 04o1 r8858. vs.. Y..1g a 38 fA# Orat 19S 1W 7AO _pd*KW To _th c l0t08 e. Ptei0t-rbtd t8 MtR2

Crbfl Fbn1. 0l8l8r .. . FtO oot 00 VW httfly FAO .Wp# 0d 8 8l1tal fisTlrol 0wb .nt p. Projeot-MIWO4 10!AR

8)8.8.8181r Pl.t PrJ.j.t 38 35 FFO Or.t Tlo _tb3 FAO .pWfl0 Sholy of amoom,cl w08 wlwlt n. Pt*j"-l8.nbd 48880

floo ro. lal.l.g 80 16 FtO e.,t T8w ofla ftO Q P 1w. 11 n141 )880. P"j""t-nbw 01A

porsity O.i.wn8t fO 60 F*1 "rt T Tcr -8I FAO *Wwo0 OW-gl8t0 188 #f1* . 8otry pi- Otbr AtAMW

8. O8 .. I.10t 4.388 5.O 88 C.mt s - * 88fEC WoOtiod It8 p 880btlM Of IM 18"Oft8 88(. T.8 0t 8880)88*8 .898888. WAdTtCM8

t204.lSte. dloo P l .. 1A S.t T. yo.. fAO *pmot8(ro 1rac 48 f _1.0 r.1 , I.t8tlflootlao O0 pftprltl8 08 M8Tt

8C1.1I 0 .84. .. .. Col. CnU Om lt Chi. 8 wooth Footho,8 W r 80oo-l"y ,rdt 6.s-l ttbd t8 M).I.tly of e8 tlo,. OIF 0A8I)I

0t041c8t U,Iw MO 200 ) Om8 poor , M!"N L8o0thttrolt. 18101s8 Om ,11k 88* . Att088 tQ lostr) , .1 .d .tit . Ota t 88883

8-..1 (88.0) Other 0)100

St-Itf-l.9 T1.c. 0. .. .D . Or..t TIre I)8 08 o _ t*,08 s c *r 48t-80 .,l.8d.

T.I#V4r Eng.'Ioo,,,twW .m. 8yo)8. 8001 108 8.80 0)808, .88* o0408. W 1. A1I_A. Otb3 r 8T810

mt. SvIy (WS)

No8 sopp9 e #8.. I8 I 8.10 3,0( 0808 0rs,0t Tim pV.. U!tlO qpto. Pt." I on *. r phtlol 147. 8.8 8.t brd. 8098. P1J8t-118884 4A88

3888 e88)0.1 IPVA .. .. .. 8"nt T1 y78r1 O0~ _of8888 .d CFTC 0AM8. Ot88 88I8I

8888088 D1S

C8.P.8r Prffr-r () .. . 0.8.) t Tti 0t8 De o - A.Itoolo ft td *fb8 -"Ir~ *C4 I88 t 4 Irbd8.. Pr8tn8t88 MNEI8M8

am 0t., AMA o .. -- .-t Tw Po18 041 Intl t8 0 .s.tr.Ugr8". Ot88r 1088(83;.611, *f81. s0 lil8 lTr. .. .. .. 8101t 10 rw. Or.8wr W 4l8r e l78b Ski88 )ot8ol4. Ot)r t8)W

I... Sporl #uNo. 8. p.t. .. .. .. 5r8t 38. l .1014 r00804) 018 8 W8stmt,,,l 04l08nr 80 888t80t 18tln48 08 3 18480. 088 0)FI

- 24- Al_I-

AttlUGA ATO flA TtlCgL Ctt0XO _M IM - I"0

bce 'U0o

eest ASUtt 3 W WIt514 G615fiFCAT10IIIIu/0.4601 1010. 000A(0 £6164T PID2F-40A10V ID

can1 65Q! $K LO SW WI? 0ALI46 *1111 on mauWm (I) CS)

0150t146 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IRM 11 101146101SXIAL SWIIES

flaticm & tr*l"l (M T)

LI.) OW.ls traie 1 40 .. .. .. 0rt us P hI ret au" AI0t151141 tdatift o*l.mt 3,TS11 3.1? WVIMA L5n To ryrn $ W/A srowt4d Cod la 4611 altowl. COWTIOlas 50*Iqpt Altipe Strh COIN". P leejctlt amt2fa ical lftbm TreSisb .. .. .. Irts 15 ), mob 0am alrm "A D Atrsed 41EpIem tr0 0 ff PA" be r tfca f.l at ASO. rt."wle(5 A6001AlrabditimlldIelrig. lat1stIr .. .. .. Cro t tw y'wr 0mw 00'kf' W l st af ff AtAig St h Collate. pr9j51011 ANITT4glas1,ot.1 tmpss,w *. . s Is pwe DOW, uSow. opartIcsel o1ft" IV 0111g.. S1l5 colel . #lo.1at1.sllo SlawsfEdmlee IreeSs 4ot r .. .. .. I) 05 15, 05 1 o AMIw0 4 sal#0is fw cfttfg sm St" h Ctts. 00c..' 41Wt16£50115 tq5Iy bIrr .I. . . 4 .. lt 5oer ^ 15w yar 0.4. 1511104 rw trlOls 55fe r 1r1 l.lo Rs t . O tler 111E*tlaa 1"ohsesy tr t4t S a 4 *ft IDO w 0q: tnh t tIS. rf rwrerimlw O."Wis" efftlr. othe ArTI

Pe.Iotlm, .malt, 0t4ltil AID

.sI1ty E.9l1, .. .. . Crt T. .w, Onor _a l04Iac_et at cFte *.ib Mo a." 1146. OtIw Al6mb1

115111 A ce ity S I..04 Inesx

so" ca lItia 101r101) .. . CGnt 00 yef T.,bl. spcOalist rmtir to WgS*15/meSt rdltIc 0r411m. ot1er Wow

TIloelslm I.. b r tiss S4 3U 01 e1.t T- y/r 0U 1/b dWncWd N4od $nt*l W _ t1r1141 011p. rja0.lIl14 5)111

WIt..I CmasletOt It it on t 1T_ 06W w1 ftd 4 CUtl toI4ok 119 11 am9. Oto , 0400CSS

21W1. Pr.WtJ Aaost

-0tger. £5151 pt). .. .1 T. I.,. 0mw Vm- EOqWI 011(15 6orl trttfo lsti r tt. sma t .t *01 Oth0, AlFrAl=1 I So.". As. r 1 .. .. Cr00.41t The -tn P11110 l5 1 Coltast 0 t1 oly IL Cele rliot. 5 51)646

Pol,. wol0, lOIs)

Priase Jffilool Owl . .. .. C,nt Si. t1 t1 nsu 0 fOfr _00 E"emasle l,lo* I e/loews. *tmr 46f0Al

x115lls-5. (WSJ

ro-tlg swlel1 1 Om (t . l. a1( MD (A 1C051 1io nleg 46401505 5 1tf IIl "l _ft 101111£d ff015 1)4.WI. 'ret nlte 4 1

II 111 oof op911e500 s, 1111)1 4la10m111 511,.11) .1114. of 115t5 w lise i t isbll1 sm1 t 4t.

mao.550.. 2 t01 A Owe. a.0"

- 25 -

ANNEX II

Macroeconomic Projections

- 2 6 - AO1

Pago I of 2

AtI*A AM FIft I - 1i CO11111 PRoECtiM4

(iWl vsIo In ign7 prir^s Icwle 1 EInf nilillen e4r$Pt far

sop to Us54 mil IIIon ed ffwth rates as p reosxn

I l Itt 19 ile 1964 1 9fi 19 97lo 19i?3 I ISO 90 1991 1992 1993 1994 I99S

OW (Ctfctw cst)i

Agriultirs II.7 11.6 i0.4 11.9 12.4 15.0 13.5 14.1 14.S 15.4 16.3 17.3 I"N 19.4

itCletufifo7 15-9 14' ''-' 1'4A 14.7 IS ISJ 15.6 IS .9 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.2

C004truction it.? lo a 11.3 12d6 13.7 14.7 15.4 16.5 17.3 18.5 19.S 21 3 22.a 24.4

Tron port 6 Cammruca tiou 40.9 46J7 SO.I Se.1 %A^ 59.6 62.6 65fl 67D0 711a 74.7 77.7 80.8 a4.0

Tradol 2i.6 2i.9 23.2 24.5 27.2 30.2 52.9 35.9 39.s 41.6 44.1 45.8 49.6 52.6

Hotels 6 R00'sulaot 25.1 30.8 Jt.9 4S.1 47.8 53.1 57 S9 63.1 66a. 75.2 77. tG23 a7.2 92.S

Othor $0er-7lf 6a 2 7D.S 71.7 74.0 76.2 is. ao 80 83. S 5 fr.8 i7.5 as.3 $1.0 92.9 S4.7

ouP TOTAL 154.1 206.5 220.0 254.7 2MtA 264.1 2le.5 29J.1 310. A 32 .4 358.9 554.0 569.9 3s6.?

GI? otowth -1.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.0 6.1 S.J S A S. S *S 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

OW Deflator 152.3 160.4 167.9 174.4 177.4 Itl4.6 192.6 VA1 210.9 220.4 W.5 2W.7 251.5 262d8

SW 010041MAL 29S6 331.2 369.4 409S3 "I413 487.6 5363 t 93.0 654.6 715.0 780.5 tlS2.1 95DA 1016.2

tG? tOh1AL (f.p.l 352.3 t89.1 454.0 4eo.9 518.5 572.8 630.0 696J7 769D0 8t.0 9t7.0 lOOi. 1 I9J.1 1195.9

OWP i^*kt prices t 21.5 X2A2 258.5 275.7 2S2.5 110.3 527J2 345.5 X4b A 581.1 3S8.1 415.9 434 b 454.3

MW Ajusb=nt -5.7 0.4 0.4 6.7 29.5 54.1 4ti.2 52.2 56.4 52b6 4a.2 43.0 57.0 30J3

fil 225 6 243.0 2se.9 282- 321.8 344.4 375.5 3977J 421.1 45S.8 446.3 458.9 Val. 484.5

iriprts 152D0 143-4 171D. 179.5 191. S 10.5 225.7 242.2 2t0D m 27s 2d7.7 502.7 S18b6 335.4

sbpelty to bwpot 146.3 143.8 171.4 le6 o 223.4 244.6 273.9 294.3 316.4 326.1 3SSd9 34S.7 155.7 3sS.7

Irpots 221 J 170.6 19t8.7 2.8 319.5 537.8 263.5 27S e 296.9 511.2 3SX.2 542.0 3D.9 S76.9

Total xditsro 501D0 269. 2a6.1 319.3 417.9 457.6 XS O t83.2 401.6 418.9 4355b 4SS.2 474.8 4SS.7

InvtatJt 96.5 52 fl 64.5 n93 164.8 17S fl 94.2 IOOD0 105.6 110.3 115.3 12D.A 12S6 e IM S

Pwibc 31.4 16d8 14.S 24.5 106.5 117.0 29SD 31. 32A 54.5 355A 57.4 39.1 40.9

Prhvat 65.1 56.I SO. O .SS 65.5 61 9 65.5 68 .9 72.7 76.0 79.4 85.0 86.7 90.6

CanrLsstlon 2D4.5 216.9 2216 X524.0 253.1 258.7 270.7 283.1 296 0 508. 321.4 534.8 549.0 3&4.2

PutI IC 456A 435. 44.3 SO 9 64.6 69.2 n3.0 77.1 81l.4 8S.1 BSad 92A8 Y7.0 I tl.4

Privaeh ID.g 175b6 1n.3 189.1 1a8.5 189.5 1S7.7 2D6.0 214.b 225.5 232.S 242.0 252D0 262.8

Uf4"gtb Solid"v 26d 25.7 56 fl 35J 39.3 SI AS 56.4 62.4 69.6 72b X e. 9'I .' Ss.6 SOI

Facto-r 6¢ff1to lam -6f9 -4.5 -0.9 -8.4 -14.0 -15.2 -15d8 -17.7 -7.9 -e6 -8.4 -10.1 -9.9 -11.4

tronsf fs 19.9 20.2 20.3 a3.2 24D0 24.2 24J 24 t 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1

WiMaol SOVI4gn 59.7 41A4 56.3 50D6 49.3 60.5 65.0 76.1 85.2 e8 s 93.t 9S.9 100.7 103.8

Exp7t Projections

imdcturo IIJ 10.0 di 8.5 9.7 9.1 9.4 9Jt 10.2 10.6 IID0 11 S. 11.9 12.4

ag7riculture 0.3 0.2 0.3 M0.40. 0.4 OS O O 0.6 0b 0.7 0.7 0OJ 0.8

O t7 r 19.l 11.8 12.7 12D0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12a 15.0 15.2 15wA 15. 135 1 4.0

total mtewwmnls* 31.1 2t.9 21 A 20.9 2t.4 ao0 22.6 2a.2 a.8 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.5 27.2

ttonfecUrService$ 2S.2 31J2 42.0 45.5 SOS5 XO. 61.0 66.5 72.5 76S9 81.5 85.4 9tb6 97.t

lots I Expor t 56 3 53.1 65.3 66.4 71.8 78.0 63.6 89.7 9X.3 101.3 105.6 112.1 11a.0 124.2

Eaport Prics Inoicsa

cWAostre 158.5 168.5 175 S 176.1 179.1 Itt6<5 194.5 203.6 215D0 222.6 252.6 245.0 254.0 265.

Agricuitwr 158.5 166.3 193.5 2W.2 Mg.1 Ift4.2 2tO. o 2as.4 272.9 2a6.3 300.3 515.0 53u.S WA.

Otbr ISftS 168.3 175.9 17.1 179.1 166.S 194.5 203A 215.0 222b6 232.6 245D0 2s4.0 265.4

total tcmagNU41b IS9 168.5 174.1 176.6 179.4 186. A 9 IN 2D4.5 214.S 224.2 234.4 245.0 256S.1 267A4

40nfector Servim 170.5 I75.7 183.5 190. S 20. 210.1 22D 6 251.6 245.2 255.5 269.1 2rtl.5 2"A 310.4

Total £rwP7r 165.5 183.2 180.3 186.1 193.9 2D5. 2tSI.6 224.6 236.i 247.8 260.2 273.1 2N6.7 301.0

Exporbtsmo enat value)

41Wt *cturs *14. 16J 14.5 ISD0 15 s 18.9 It.4 20.0 21.t 23.6 25S.7 27.9 so.5 55.0

Aitriclbltr 0.4 0.5 0.6 O N 0A* 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2D0 2.2 2.5 2.7

Otbr 30J3 19t 22.1 21.2 21.9 25.1 2435 26.0 n7. 29.3 311.1 55D0 SSD0 S7.1

Total meiorhndis 49.3 57.8 S7.2 S7 O 38.4 40.9 43.9 47.3 Sl .0 54.7 58.7 63.1 67. t n t

tlonfactor Srvorslc 42.9 54.2 77D 86.6 100.41 117.6 !34. A 54.1 176.4 195.5 218.5 243.2 210.6 01.2

total fxpefb 72.2 92.0 114.2 125.6 139.3 158.6 17a.6 2tl.4 227.3 251.0 2m.2 306.2 33A. 54.0

ImSet Projectio7ns

food 1-O 12.2 13d0 15.6 14.3 14.6 153 16.0 16J1 17.1 17.4 17J It. 18. 5 I

Foil 29.4 14J7 19.2 31.7 53.2 34.8 X6.3 58.0 39J7 41.1 42.6 44.1 ff.7 47.3

Vandectarec 17.3 16.7 IS J 14J7 15.7 16.7 17J7 ISA 119f 20fl 22.0 23.0 24.2 25.4

Nchin ry 8 *Trn. E(PIP. 14.1 11.7 16.1 15.6 45S6 48 r 17.S 19.5 21.6 25.6 25.7 28.0 30. S 5.2

Ottxor 8.1 7.7 8.2 aJ7 9.2 9A6 10.3 10.9 Il.S 12.0 12.5 15.1 13.7 14.3

T*obl ttehan4as 82A0 a3.l n3 Q2.2 118.0 124.7 97.2 103.1 109.4 114J7 120.2 126D0 152.1 138.7

Ilonftactor Sarvicte 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 O.S 0.5 0.6 OA 0OJ 0.8 Ofl

Ttoli InVob fl2.1 63.2 75.6 82.5 114.5 125.1 97.6 105.6 110.0 115.3 120.8 126.7 152.9 139b

- 27 - Am '

Pap 2 of 2AlTIWM AM WtW - Wt 54t C PRtECTIOS

(Graa oimn1a In o77 prices, i.981 In ECS miio1n uxpt for

MP In 3W*ml1II tmo 94wr1o6 rtot" as percent)

1ts2 1983 1984 1989 1990 68 1 IN 19If190 1991 1 9S2 1993 MI 199

Iriort Peloc Indilces

Food 170.2 172.7 181.3 183.0 181.3 171 188.4 27.3 228.0 239.2 250.9 263.2 276.1 269.AFumls 170.2 172.7 172.7 172.7 124.3 35.4 137.6 140.0 142.3 Mi. 184.1 269.4 258.1 270.8l dootores *170.2 172.7 178.4 183.2 186.3 194.0 2023 21I1 2A2s 231.5 242.0 92 264.2 276.1MXcbhnary * Tratn. EqUIP. 170.2 172.7 17T.4 143.2 1i6.3 194.0 242.3 211 A 221.6 251.5 262.0 252.8 264.2 276.1Otter 170.2 172.1 178.4 183.2 1t683 19430 202.3 211.8 2216 231.5 242.0 252.8 264.2 276.1

Total Mar,_t.dIo 170.2 172.7 1793 179.5 18.3 11 .9 175.9 184.7 193.8 207.7 222.8 25S.1 256.8 276.1Nbfa ctor Services 170.2 172.7 178.4 183.2 18U3 194.o 202.3 211Jt 221.6 231.3 242.0 252M 264.2 276.1

Total Iqorts 170.2 172.7 179.9 17S0S 1843 175.0 176.1 1I4.8 194.0 267a 222.9 23S.2 2s6A 276.1

lporbt (current ralwm)

Food 22.2 21.1 25.1 25.1 25.9 25.1 26.8 33.2 38.2 40.8 43.1 46.7 50.0 S3.5fuels SO.1 25.4 33.1 54.7 41.3 47.1 0.0 53.2 36.4 66. 7.A4 92.3 108.7 129.1t.ougfctores 23.4 28.9 28.4 26.9 29.2 52.4 35d 39.8 44.2 48 5 53.2 53.3 63.9 70.14clhtn ry I trans. Equip. 24.0 20.2 26.8 2469 t5.0 94.7 3S. 41.2 47.9 54.8 62.1 70.7 803 91.80th r tsa 3.S3 16.4 1S. 17.1 18.9 20.8 23.0 25.4 27A 30.3 33.1 16.1 39.5

Total tsrceImmls 1339.6 108.9 131.8 147.5 18.a 218.2 170.9 190.5 21.1 238.2 267.7 301.1 339.4 323.03niactor Sarviva 0.2 0.2 0.9 0A .7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 . IAt. t.8 2.1 2.4

Total 4ort 139.7 109.1 132.3 148.1 199.2 211.0 171.8 191.5 213.t 9A 269.2 352.9 31.4 355.4

Bcabw d Ppomnts

Eaport 92.2 92.D 114.2 123.9 139.3 1tS6 178A 261.4 227.1 251t 277.2 306.2 5!84 374.0law rt 1t8.6 109.1 132.3 148.1 199.2 29.0 t1.8 191.5 213.3 29A 269.2 262.9 541.4 585.4

Reource 6aisoa -46.4 -17.1 -18.1 -24.2 -59.9 *60.4 6.7 10.0 14.0 11O t 8.0 3.3 -330 -tt.46t. Factor Inc.r -3.9 -2.7 -0A -5.4 -. 2 -tOA -11.3 -8.0 -6.2 -7.0 -7.2 o.0 -9.2 -11.1lnterst Pus OI, ebt 4.2 1.2 0D 5.1 9S 10.° 11.7 7.6 *. 6A 7.6 8.8 9A OAOther 0.3 03 .0 -0.3 0.3 -O. 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -.0.4 . -. 4 0.4 .0.5Tranmsrs 11.2 12.0 12.6 1MO 15.8 165 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.4

Currat Account SM -39.1 -7. -6.1 -14.6 -5.3 -94.3 12.8 20.2 27.0 24A 21.9 163A 11.1 1.9Ns_t PtIc C*tt to 7.7 -0.1 -13 3.2 sa.7 59.7 -15.8 -1.6 -. 4 .0.2 9.3 9.8 9 9.6or at 1.1 OA 2. 1.3 1.0 1.0 03 03 03 03 0. 0.S 4 O Loon Olarl nts 9.7 4.7 253 7.8 54.4 70.7 103 11.6 123 14.0 tS3 16.7 18.2 19.9k_rtlztln 3.1 5.4 33. S3 7.0 16.1 3D.2 .I 15.1 15.7 7.3 8.0 9.7 11.0Privets Capital (at) 42.2 435 73 11.4 0. -S9S 3.0 -ASA -26.5 -24.3 -31.4 -26.2 -20.7 -1 s3

OvralI Bel.m* 10.8 -3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0OWW(XP -3S.7 -6.4 -4.A -9.6 -32. -3.1 6.5 9.2 11.1 9.3 7* 5.2 3.2 0.5

PmaitC S£tR wErlomS

Godral ConmnwntCurrent RevenuS 105.6 1tS.0 1St 134. 1t8.6 2003 220.5 243. 269.2 294D 325a 350.4 582.6 417.9Corrt Expodit.wo to0oA 102.2 107.3 12.9 160.7 177.5 195.3 215.9 258.3 260.3 264.2 310.2 38.8 370.0

General Goornimnt SavIng -2* -2.2 8.3 5. 17.9 233 23.2 n.9 3M8 53.7 36.7 40.1 43.8 47.8Stlto Entorlpris Saving4 4 SA HA 93 103t 12.1 133 1.O 16.5 18.0 19.J 21 233 25ACatgit EalL ttres 47. 27D 244 42.3 1as3 216.1 SS9. 62.7 69.2 75A 82.5 90.1 98.4 107.4

Overall OefIcit -45.8 -23.6 .4A -n.2 -160.5 -181.1 -17.0 -11.A -21.9 -23.9 -26.1 -263 -31.1 -;4.0Extarnim FInancIng 20.8 -0.3 -4.0 8.7 142.4 161 -42.7 -4.4 -1.2 -0.6 25.7 26.3 26.0 253

Grnat 330 1.6 7.0 3 1U.4 13.8 10.9 s.O 33 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0Loon 26.2 12.7 79.7 21.1 146S 191.0 27VA 314 34.6 37a 413 45.0 49.2 53.7t.rtIZation 8.4 14.6 90.7 15t 1S8. 433 81.5 '4. 40.8 42.4 19. 21.7 26.2 29A

Omestic FInancing 12.5 683 -1.1 -6.3 0.0 03 03 0.0 03 03 D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ArtoarFor*19) 12.2 I7A 9.7 24. 03D 0.0 0.0 0.0 03 0.0 0D 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gcp 0.0 0.0 0.0 03 -18.1 -191 S9.7 -24.3 -23.1 -243 -0.4 -2.1 -5.1 -. lTotal Extarnal Dmbt 51.5 s 3.s S13 643 112.3 166.9 147.1 144.9 144.0 143.3 152.3 1613A 170.7 179SCP RATIOS

P9b1ic Sector Savla -0.9 -0.7 2.2 1.4 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7State Enterprtis Saving t. 1.7 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 23 2.3 2.5 2 23 2.5 23 2.5Currant Revenn 55.8 30.2 31.3 52.9 403 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1ODm0t1 Saving. 11.6 10. 14.3 13.0 13.4 16A . 7.2 18.1 8. 19.0 19.3 193 19.7 19.8lnoaotnt 41.7 21. 25.0 28.7 56.4 57.7 2.8J 2.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 20.9 26.9 293

O6bt SorvltrExports 7.9 9.3 2.4 8.9 t8A 16.5 23.5 11.3 9. 8.9 5A 5.4 5.7 S8totalt 0o. VS 47D 43A V7A 42.0 68.7 92.4 74.1 66.0 59.4 54.1 52.7 S1.2 49.5 47.8

- 28 -

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

Statistical AppendixTable of Contents

Table No. Page

1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Factor Cost,1980-1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 29

2 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Current Prices,1980-1985 ...................... 30

3 Balance of Payments, 1980-1985 . . . . . . . . . .* . 314 Consolidated Operations of the Public Sector,

1980-1985 . . . ............................................... 325 Central Goverament Operations, 1984-1986 .... .. . . .. 356 Central Government Revenue, 1982-1986. . . . . . . . . . 37

7 Public Sector Capital Expenditures, 1984-1988. . . . . . 388 Summary of External Debt, 1980-1985. . . . . . . . . . . 419 Projections of Debt Service, 1986-1990 ........ . 42

10 Tourism, 1980-1985 ........................ 4311 CostofLivingIndex.................. 44

- 29 -

Table 1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GDP AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST,1980-1985

(1977 EC$ millions)

(prel. Est.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

GDP at Factor Cost 189.3 196.7 194.1 206.5 220.0 234.7

Agri., Fishing, Forestry 13.9 12.4 11.7 11.6 10.4 11.8Mining/Quarrying 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3Manufacturing 11.4 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4Electricity/Water 6.1 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.0 9.0Corstruction 17.' 18.9 11.7 10.8 11.3 12.8Wholesale/Retail Z.V 20.6 Z1.b 21.9 23.2 24.5Hotels/Restaurants 25.9 25.9 26.1 30.8 38.9 43.1Transport 24.4 24.4 24.7 28.8 31.6 34.5Communications 11.9 14.4 16.2 17.9 18.5 19.6banking 13.9 14.9 13.6 14.6 15.1 15.4Real Estate/Housing 2L.7 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.6 24.5Government Services 22.0 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.3

Other Services 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.3

Less Imputed BanKServi.-e Charges -8.9 -9.4 -8.0 -8. -9.3 -9.8

% Change

GDP at Factor Cost 8.0 3.9 -1.3 6.4 6.5 6.7

Agri., Fishing, Forestry - -10.8 -5.7 -0.9 -10.3 13.5

Mining/Quarrying 33.3 -8.3 -18.2 22.2 9.1 8.3Manufacturing 18.8 21.9 - 2.2 1.4 -Electricity/Water 7.0 13.1 7.3 9.5 -1.2 12.5Construction 24.6 9.9 -38.1 -7.7 4.6 13.3Wholesale/Retail 4.5 - 4.9 1.4 5.9 5.6Hotels/Restaurants 7.0 - 0.8 18.0 26.3 10.8Transport 0.4 - 1.2 16.6 9.7 9.5Communications 17.8 21.0 12.5 10.5 3.4 6.0Banking 13.9 7.2 -8.7 7.4 2.7 2.-Real Estate/Housing 3.0 3.9 4.7 3.1 1.7 3.8Government Services 10.6 - 1.8 1.8 2.2 -Other Services 3.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.1 4.0

GOP Deflator 130.9 139.6 152.3 160.4 167.9 174.4

Source: Ministry of Finance (Statistics Division), OECS Economic Affairs Secretariatand Mission estimates.

- 30 -

Table 2; ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTIN CURRENT PRICES, 1980-1985

(EC$ millions)

(prel. Lat.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 195S

Total Consumption 278.7 299.5 332.9 35U.1 365.5 42b.9

Public 50.1 54.2 59.8 68.0 84.2 95.9Private 228.6 245.3 273.1 282.1 281.3 331.0

Investment 93.5 145.9 146.9 84.6 116.7 123.5

Public 26.2 52.2 47.8 27.0 28.1 42.3Private 67.3 93.7 99.1 56.6 88.6 81.2

Gross Domestic Expen. 372.2 445.4 479.8 434.7 482.2 550.4

Exports of Goods & NFS 256.5 248.1 248.9 248.4 308.3 334.5Import of Goods & NFS 340.7 372.1 376.4 294.0 355.9 398.3

GDP at Market Prices 288.0 321.4 352.3 389.1 434.6 48b.6

Indirect Taxes netof subsidies 40.2 46.9 56.6 57.8 b5.3 75.8

GOP at Factor Cost 247.8 274.5 295.7 331.3 369.3 41U.8

(Z of GDP at Market Prices)

Investment 32.5 45.4 41.7 21.7 26.9 25.4

Public 9.1 1b.2 13.6 6.9 6.0 8.9Private 23.4 29.2 28.1 14.8 20.9 16.5

Gross National Savings 8.7 11.8 9.7 16.4 25.0 19.1

Public 1.3 2.4 U.6 0.9 4.6 3.1Private 7.4 9.4 9.1 15.5 20.4 15.9

Foreign Savings 23.8 33.6 32.0 5.3 1.9 6.3

Source: Ministry of Finance, UECS Economic Affairs Secretariat and Mission estimates.

- 31 -

Table 3: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1980-1985

(US$ millions)

(prel. Est.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Current Account -25.4 -40.0 -41.7 -7.6 -3.0 -11.4

Resource Balance -66.7 -86.4 -90.1 -71.1 -94.6 -110.5Exports of Goods & NFS 95.0 91.9 92.2 92.0 114.2 123.9Goods 59.5 51.4 49.3 37.8 37.2 37.0Travel (net) 35.5 40.5 43.7 52.6 76.9 87.5Other NFS (net) -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.6 0.1 -0.6Imports of Goods -126.2 -137.8 -139.4 -108.9 -131.8 -147.5Interest Public Debt -2.3 -3.1 -4.3 -3.1 0.1 -5.1Other Factor Services(net) 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.3Private Transfers (net) 7.0 7.8 8.7 10.6 12.5 15.0

Capital Account 23.0 39.2 36.2 1.2 3.4 12.2

Official Transfers andGrants 3.1 2.6 0.7 - 2.0 1.3Official Capital (net) 4.0 14.3 6.7 -0.7 -4.0 1.9Commercial Banks -1.3 0.3 8.6 -6.8 - 4.9Foreign Private Invest.& Errors & Omissions 17.2 22.0 20.2 8.7 5.4 4.1

Overall Balance -2.4 -0.8 -5.5 -6.4 0.4 0.8

Financing 2.4 0.8 5.5 6.4 -0.4 -0.8

Change in GovernmentForeign Assets -0.2 -0.1 - - - -0.1Change in ImputedReserves Assets 2.0 -0.6 1.0 -U.1 -4.0 -9.9

Official Payments Arrears 0.6 1.5 4.5 6.5 3.6 9.2Principal 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 4.8 4.9Interest 0.4 1.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 4.3

Source: Ministry of Finance, ECCB, Department of Tourism, IMF estimatesand Mission estimates.

- 32 -

Page 1 of 3

Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR,1980-1985(EC$ million)

(prel. Est.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Consolidated Public Sector

Current Revenue 72.6 89.2 105.8 100.0 115.6 134.5Current Expenditure 75.6 88.6 108.4 102.2 107.3 128.9Public Enterprise Savings 6.6 7.2 4.6 5.6 11.5 9.5Current Balance 3.6 7.8 2.0 3.4 19.8 15.1

Capital Receipts 11.2 10.2 3.8 2.7 13.6 4.0Capital Expenditure 25.8 52.2 47.8 27.0 28.1 23.1Overall Balance -11.0 -34.2 -42.0 -20.9 5.3 -4.0

Social Security Scheme

Current Revenue 9.6 10.9 12.2 13.0 14.3 18.1of which - Govt. arrears (2.6) (2.9) (3.7) (3.7) (2.4) (3.5)Current Expenditure 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.5Current Balance 7.2 8.0 8.7 8.9 9.4 12.6

Capital Expenditure - 0.9 1.3 2.9 0.5 -Overall Balance 7.2 7.3 7.4 6.2 8.9 12.6

Financin(increase - -) -7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -6.2 -8.9 -12.6

Commercial Bank Deposits -1.4 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -2.3 -3.4Central Government -5.4 -3.9 -5.4 -4.1 -3.6 -3.6T. Bills (-0.5) (-0.9) (-1.7) (-0.1) (-0.6) (-)Debentures (-2.3) (-0.3) (-) (-0.3) (-0.5) (-0.1)Loans - - - - (-0.1) -Arrears on Contrib. (-2.6) (-2.9) (-3.7) (-3.7) (-2.4) (-3.5)Other -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.9 -3.0 -5.6

- 33 -

Page 2 of 3

Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR,1980-1985 (Continued)

(EC$ million)

(prel. Est.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Medical Benefits Scheme

Current Revenue 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.5 7.1 5.7of which Govt. arrears (1.8) (1.8) (2.3) (2.4) (2.7) (2.6)Current Expenditure 4.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.4Overall Balance 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 -0.7

Financing(increase - -) -0.8 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 0.7

Commercial Bank Deposits 0.3 -0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 1.21/Central Government -2.1 -1.9 -2.3 -2.4 -2.7 -2.3Other 1.0 0.8 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.6

Port Authority

Operating Revenue 3.9 5.3 7.0 6.5 6.8 9.7operating Expenditures 3.2 4.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 7.8Operating Surplus/Deficit 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.7 1.9

Capital Expenditure 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.6Overall Surplus/Deficit - 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3 1.3

Financing - -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.3 -1.3Foreign (net) - 0.3 - 0.9 0.9 n.a.Domestic (net) 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 n.a.Other -0.1 -0.6 - - 0.5 n.a.

11 An advance of 1.2 million was sublent to Government hospital.

- 34 -

Page 3 of 3

Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR,1980-1985 (Continued)

(EC$ million)

(prel. Est.)1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Public Utilities Authority (y/e June)

Operating Revenue 21.7 27.3 31.6 33.1 39.4 46.1of which Govt. arrears (1.7) (1.9) (2.1) (2.2) (5.4) (7.2)Operating Expenditure 15.1 20.3 27.6 27.5 28.4 38.5of which wages (2.2) (3.0) (5.2) (5.2) (7.2) (7.8)Operating Surplus/Deficit 6.6 7.0 4.0 5.6 11.0 7.6

Capital Revenue andGovt. Transfers - - - 5.9 3.3 -Capital Expenditure 0.1 22.9 4.4 7.9 7.6 8.5Overall Surplus/Deficit b.5 -15.9 -0.4 3.6 6.7 -0.9

Financing -6.5 15.9 0.4 -3.6 -6.7 0.9Foreign (net) - 21.1 -0.4 0.4 2.3 7.0Domestic (net) 0.4 0.2 0.4 -1.0 -2.3 U.3Govt. Arrears -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -5.4 -7.2Other -5.2 -3.6 2.5 -0.8 -1.3 0.4

Central Marketiug Corporation (y/e August)

Operating Revenue 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 8.1Operating Expenditure 4.4 6.3 5.1 7.3 9.0 8.1Operating Surplus/Deficit -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -

Capital Revenue andGovt. Transfers 2.7 1.2 - - -

Capital Expenditure 0.5 0.5 - - -Overall Balance 1.5 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2

Financing -1.5 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2Banks (domestic) 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 0.1 IOther -1.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1

Sources: Ministry of Finance, State enterprises and mission estimates.

- 35 -

Pap 1 of 2

Table Ss 5 TIOKW IN 1WA C3ITRL IIOsW 01%RTImS, 1984-1986

I (CEC ml 1 lon)

1982 1983 1984 pro. 1985 Budget 19S6

Cash ArreWr Acer. C"h Arrears Aer. Cab Artrea Ar. Cash Artears ADeo. Cash Arrrs Dec?.

Dametio Curnt Rev" 93.6 - 93.6 87.8 - 8748 102.2 - 102.2 118.6 - 118.6 158.9 - 158.9

Current ExpwndIturas 89.3 17.3 106.6 85.0 15.1 100.1 91.1 7.3 105.4 107.6 17.3 124.9 146.7 - 146.7Peti Eeulmnts 43.2 - 43.2 43.9 - 439 483 - 48.3 50.2 50.2 64.8 - 64.8

Eatabilshd (U4S) - (24S) (54) - (25.4) (27.3) I-) (27.3) (29.9) (.4 (29.9) (40.7) - (40.7)M-eatabllahsd (18,7) - (18.7) (ISSl) - (18.5) (21.0) I-) (21.0) (20.3) (-) (20.3) (24.) - (24.1)

SocIal Security 3.7 3.7 - 3.7 3.7 1.6 2.4 4.0 0.6 3.5 4.1 3.2 - 3.2Ibdlcal Beefits - 2.3 2.3 - 2.4 2.4 - 2J 2.5 - 2.6 2.5 tJ - 1.7Antigua Pub. Utilities Auth. - 2.1 2.1 - 0.8 0.8 0.4 5.4 S - 7.2 7.2 3.0 - 3.0

Goods and Services 214 2.0 23.4 22.6 - 22.6 26.0 - 26.0 38.5 - 38.5 49.8 - 49.APenlonse nd Grants 4.4 - 4.4 .S5 - SS 6.0 - 6.0 6.2 6.2 7.1 - 7.1Interest a/ 18.5 7.2 25.7 10.7 8.2 18.9 12.9 -3.2 9.7 8.9 4.0 12.9 13.7 - 13.7Foreign (11.6) (7.1) (18.7) (5.4) (7.0) (12.4) (S.9) (-4.S) (1.4) (1.7) (4.0) (5.7) (5.4) - (5.4)Doestic (6.9) (0.1) (7.0) (S.3) (1.2) (6.S) (7.0) (1.3) (8.3) (7.2) (-) (7.2) (8.3) - (8.3)

Pubilc Sect4r Trsfers 03 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.4 - 0.4 1.1 - 1.1 0.8 _ 0.8

international Trnsfrs 1.2 - 1.2 15 - I.S IJ - 1.7 1.3 - 1.3 1.8 - 1.8

Private Sector Transfers 03 - 0.3 0.6 - 06 OA - 0.8 0.8 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.8

Current Accwt Balance 4.3 -17.3 -13.0 2.8 -IS.1 -12J3 4.1 -7.3 -3.2 11.0 17.3 6.3 12.2 - 12.2

Capital Rlipts -3.8 3.8 .7 - 17 10.5 - 10.4 2.2 - 2.2 I. S 11.5

Fixed lnvab.wnte 32.6 - 32.6 9.6 - 9.6 10.8 - 10.8 13.1 - 13.1 5.2 - 56.2Purchased Land 8.0 8.0 0.8 - 08 35O/ - 3.5 0.9 - 0.9 2.5 - 25dNot Lending - - - 2.0 - 2.0 3.5 - 3.S -1.2 - -1.2 -

Cap. Transfers to Pub. Sect. - - - 24.Sb - 24.5 33 - 33 - - -.

Ovrall Deficit -32.5 -17.3 -49.8 -32.4 -15.1 -47.5 -6.5 -7 -13.8 0.4 -17.3 -16.9 -35.0 - -3S.O

Financing 32.5 17M3 49.8 32.4 15.1 47.5 6.5 7.3 13.8 -0.4 17.3 16.9 35.0 - 35.0Total Foreign Fin. (nat) 18.7 -2.9 15.8 24.7 -10.8 13.9 0.1 -11.1 -11.0 -2.7 -10.5 -13.2 18.5 - 18.SDrawings on Foreign Loas (22.5) - (22.5) (27.3) - (27.3) (5.4) (-) (SA) (-) (-) (-) (31.5) - (31.5)

Chunge In Foreign Aseot (-0.1) - (-.1) (-0.1) - (-0.1) (0.1) I-) (0.1) (-0.2) (-) (0.2) (-) - (-)

Amrt. of External Debt (-3.7) (-2.9) (-6.6) (-2.5)(-l0.8) (-133) (-5.4) (-1l.l)C-l6.5) (-2.5)(-10.5) (-13.0) (13.0) - (13.0)

- 36 -

Page 2 of 2

Teble Ss MTIGUA MM 9UUQA - CNElTM TOVENW VEUTIONS' 1982-1906 (Contd.)

(EQI millions)

1982 1983 1984 Prel. 19a5 Budget 1186

Cash Arrerr Accr . C.sh Arrsts Acr, Cosh Arrear Mt. Cash Arrets Ac. Coah ArWre AMcr.

Donatic Financlng (nrt) 13.8 - 13.8 7.7 - 7J 6.4 6.4 23 - 2.3 -o0 - -0.8

Corercli Banks (7.3) - (7.3) (9.9) - (9.9) (-12.4) t-) (-124) 2.2 t-) 22 - - -

ECLO (2.0) - (2.0) (- C-) C-) (22.8) (-) 22.8) C-) C-) C-) - -

Insurance Co. - - - - - - (-0.2) C-) (0.2) 1- C-) C-) (-0.) - (-0.8)

Rest of Public Sector (1.9) - (1.9) (0.1) - (0.1) (1.2) C-) (1.2) (1.6) C-) (1.6)i/ - - -

Other Privabt Sector (2.6) - (2.A) (-2.3) - (-2.3) (-5.0) C-) (-6.0) (-1.) (-) (-1.5) - - -

Buildup of Arroars - 20.22 D.2 - 25.9 25.9 - 18.4 18.4 C-) 27.8 27.8 - 16.6 16.6f/

FaoreIg - (10.0) (10.0) - (17.8) (17.8) (-) (6A) (6.6) 1-) (14.5) (14.5) C-) C-) C-)

Interest - /7.1/ /7.1/ - /7.0/ n.0/ /-4 /-4 /4.0/ 14/ - - -

Amortization - /2.9/ 22.2Y - /10.8/ /10.8/ A1.11/ /11./ 10.4/ / /O1

testic - (10.2) (10.2) - (8.1) (8.1) (11.8) (11.8) C-) 13.3 13J C-) C-) C-)

Rest of Public Sector - j8.1/ N.1/ - /8.1/ /8.1/ /11./ /11. 13.3 13J - - -

Other 12.11 /2.1/

a/ Net of piaemnt of counbrpart deposits.

b/ Comprisee transfer of proceds of loan from Trinidad and Tobago to ths ARA (EC83.9 ml II Ion) and transfer of

Eximbnmk loans, previously In APUA's books, to the Central Goverunnt.

c/ Includs pwrhos of land for D"p Bay Project (CEC2.7 million).

d4 Purchase of land Deep By area.

/ Includes loans of ECII.2 mIlilon from Mdical Bnefits.

f/ This Item has ben us as a residual.

Source: Ministry of Finance, IW estimates sa mission oestimste*.

- 37 -

Table 6: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE

(EC$ million)

Prel. Budg.1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Domestic Current Revenue 93.6 87.8 102.2 118.6 158.9

Direct taxes 11.8 11.7 15.5 21.6 25.8Income Tax 10.7 10.3 13.8 20.0 23.0Of which: Corporation Tax (10.2) (9.7) (13.0) (19.3) (22.0)

Property Tax 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.8

Indirect Taxes 56.9 58.9 67.3 76.8 101.8Consumption taxesa/ 21.5 21.6 24.4 26.7 35.9Import duties 18.8 18.3 22.0 26.2 30.0Hotel and guest taxes 4.6 5.5 6.4 8.9 12.9Travel tax 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2Embarkation tax 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.2Telecommunication tax 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.0Stamp duties 2.6 1.6 3.2 3.7 4.0Foreign currency levy 3.4 3.8 3.6 1.8 4.0Other 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.7 8.6

Nontax revenue 24.9 17.6 19.4 20.2 31.3Currency profits 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 3.0US bases 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2Licenses and fees 2.3 1.8 3.2 6.3 9.2Post Office revenueb/ 4.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.7Interest earned on counterpart

external deposits 8.9 4.7 3.4 - -Other 2.1 2.3 6.9 6.2 12.2

Capital receipts 3.8 1.7 10.5 2.2 11.5Sales of government assets 0.9 1.0 8.4c/ 0.4 1.0UK Devrelopment Aid 1.2 0.4 1.3 0.7 2.5CIDA grants ... 0.1 0.1 - -USAID 1.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7Other 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 7.3

Memorandum itemCurrent revenues excluding interest

earned on counterpart externaldeposits 84.7 83.1 98.8 118.6 158.9

a/ Includes surcharge./ Includes philatelic sales.

c/ Includes 8.1 million from sale of Halcyon Reef Hotel.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; Treasury, IMF staff estimates and missionestimates.

- 38 -

Page I of 3

Table 7s MTI6UA AND RA6M - PUELIC SCTOR CAPITAL PIIITUE, 1984-1988

(EC '000)

1964 1985 1986 197 1988

Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Lecal Total Ext. Local

OMNGOI

Agrioculture

Agri. Input Revolv. Fuad 40 - 40 117 - 117 117 - 117 117 - 117 117 - 117

Land Davelopmnt 16 - 16 54 - 594

Agri. Equip. - Sugar Corp. 600600 -

Penut Project 72 - n2 123 - 123

Llvetock Inprovant 497 35S 13S 650 477 173 650 477 173

Agri. Prod.-Tewln Counterpart 4S - 49 103 - 103

Laboratory Extension 243 - 243 457 - 457

Cotton Industry Project 90 - SO 360 - 360 1364 1364

Rehab. of Agri. - Livestock 90 90 - 10 10 -

FIsherIes Industry Oeelopgnt 751 751

Sugar Industry 70 - 70 200 - 200

Industry

Extension of Factory Shella 75 75

Factory Shell ConatructIon 470 - 470 1896 - 1896 2745 - 2745

TouwIan

Handicraft Centre 224 224 -

Guest hos - Brb 18170 1350 520 510 - 510 510 - 510Engllsh Htbor Study 86 86 -

e"p say Hotel Project 15915 15306 609 79039 765A 2513 61217 61217

Nelsnes ockyard Infrast. 70 70 -

Traupot

FIre Fighting Equlp.-Oerbuds 150 150 -

Navigational Aide - AlIport 869 S69 -

Port Authority - Capital Exp. 610 - 610 So - S5

Telecom. Equip. - CoolIdge 774 774 -

laWovo_mbnts Barbuda AIrport 50 - 50

Raiy Reaus aclng 2984 2984 -

Road RecntructIon 5W0 5000 - 2002000

AIrport Anclillary Infrast. 1163 - 1163

- 39 -

Pago 2 of 5

Table h ANTIGLA AND IRBU - PUILIC SECtOR CAPITAL EWNDIUf, 1984-19868 (Contd.)

(EC$ '000)

1984 1985 198$ 1987 1968

Total Ext. Local Totol Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Totbl Ext. Local

UtilIty Servlces

Deeeilnatlon Plant 1050 IOSO - 4128 4128 - 111472 111472 -

Ceaatde Garden Generators 2565 2565 -

Wind Power Project 151 151 -

Eourgency Relief - arging 1691 1291 400

Water Supply Expanslon 3300 2300 1000 5100 3500 ISO 80 6000 2500

Casade Garden Drainage SOO - 600 600 - 600

Stanndby Generatora - Barbuda 1000 1000 -

Telephone Expansion I 1000 1000 -

Telephone Expension II 30200 27000 3200

vater Distribution II 3124 3324 - 2328 228 -

Education

Construction of Classroom 9 - 59 143 - 143

Urllngs School 228 - 228 190 190 -

BasIc Needs Trust Fund 2D2 202 - 729 729 - 1877 1877 -

Renovatlon of Otters School 362 - 362 68 - 68

St. Jolms Al IAge School 80 - OD

Reconstr. Clare Hall School 36 36 979 979 - 228 228 -

New St. Johns Priory 132 - 132

Heath

Vehicles - Health 534 - 334 964 - 964

Holberton Hopltal - Othter 05 - 105 W - 23 87 - i7

Mental Hoepital 117 - 117

Holberton Hoep. - Chi Id Wtard 90 - 900 278 - 278 56 - SS

Heal th & Fanily Llfe Unit S6 26 25

Family Planning Project 79 79 - 175 175 -

Recreation Area uWrovamat 328 - 35 16 - 16

Amninistratlon

Treasury Conputer 350 350 362 - 362 85 - 8S

Independence Arch 93 - 93

MInIstry of Flatnce Bldg. 13X - 136 377 - 377 80 - 80

Courthouee Retlbllltation 200 110 90

Govt. Bldg.. Renovation 350 - 350 57 - 57 943 - 943

Nftw LgIslatIve Bldg. 22 - 22 4 - 4

Gowenmnt Prlntery 70 70 - S35 535 - 725 72S -

Social Security Bldg. SDO 500

- 40 -Po3 of 3

Table 7 ArITIGUA AM RalDA - PUBLl £CTOR ClTA EL lTUIE, 19S4-1911dC (Ctd.)

(ECS 000)

1984 1985 1S96 t987 I9S"

Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local

Ml I lanaou

AEDS Equity Inv./Global Cr. 16 16 - 498 48 -

Low Inon HouwIng - A088 102 - 1825 6S0 - 600

H"uaIng - Chlpen S49 - 849 3900 - 380 1000 - 1000 lO00 - I0O0Land & Building Purctasee 3500 - 35S0 1246 - 1246 590 - 5s0

Fwudlng SchIe 3876 3876 2219 - 2219

Fire & Rescue Equlpanat 2897 - 2897

Police Vehicl 222 - 222Other Sndry CapItal Exp. 1355 67 1289 427 - 427

Total (milIlon) 22.8 12.2 OA 42.3 24.6 17.7 188.8 156.3 27.3 179.9 176. 3.1 1.3 - 1.3

Total Control Boveriwant

(million) 14.3 4. 8.5 14. 1, 12.1 54.3 41.4 12.9 7.2 4.1 3S 1.3 - 1.3

Agrlcul ture

Llveatock Devltopmnt II 1927 1619 308 1033 868 165 782 657 125torn-6orghum Pilot Rea.rch 451 451 -

GoatVShaep Farming 464 44 -

Li"stock Induatry 11 1244 1120 124 1245 1121 124

Snal F Farirs Irrigatlbn 1485 1350 135 1485 1350 135

Tour I a

Engi lah Harbor Park Proj. 4200 4200 - 4200 4200 -

St. Johns Devalopmat 7800 - tS00 5000 - 3mg

Transport

AIrport Taxlway gm0G 500 - 9500 9500Air Traffic Centrol Rader 54W 50o

Road Reconetructlon II 2W0 2M0 - 6000 6000

Utl II ty Sarvlca

wrbuda ElectrIcity 756 tSS

Eleetticity Dlstrlbutln 3150 3150 - 6300 6300

EducatIon

Rehab. BoaenleI School 1323 1323

MlacaleI u

Police Radlcs 567 567

IOTA. DEWPAOJECtS (Mllllan - - - - - - 5.1 4.8 0.3 36.2 23.0 8.2 34.5 29 7 5.4TOTAL 11 P8I0ECTS (mIllIon) 22.6 12.2 20.4 42.3 24.6 17.7 18S.9 161.3 27.6 216.1 24.A 11.3 35.8 29.1 6.7OtDOM GOilEIT (IMl eIn) 143 4.8 8.5 14.0 l8 12.1 56.2 43.0 13.2 28.5 25.0 3.5 30. 29.1 1.7

- 41 -

Table 8: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - SUMMARY OF EXTEkNA~ DEBT

______________ _1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

(millions of US$)

Gross Principal (utst.1/ 44.5 74.3 79.0 80.8 51.0 64.9Counterpart Dep. Abroad 11.1 27.6 27.5 27.3 - -Net Principal Outstanding 33.4 46.7 51.5 53.5 51.0 64.9Cum. Arrears Outstanding 2.4 4.0 8.5 15.0 18.6 27.8Principal 1.4 1.7 3.1 7.1 12.0 16.9Interest 1.0 2.3 5.4 7.9 6.6 10.9Gross Debt (includinginterest arrears) 45.5 76.6 84.4 88.7 57.6 75.8Debt Service Obligations 6.7 7.0 10.6 10.2 7.4 11.0Amortization 3.7 2.8 3.O 5.4 b.3 5.9Interest 3.0 4.2 7.6 4.8 1.1 5.1

(in percent of GOP)

Net Principal Outstanding 31.3 39.2 39.5 37.1 31.7 36.5Cumulative Arrears 2.3 3.4 6.5 1U.4 11.6 15.6Principal 1.3 1.4 2.4 4.9 7.5 9.5Interest 1.0 2.0 4.1 5.5 4.1 6.1

Gross Debt 42.7 64.4 64.7 61.6 35.8 42.6

(in percent of exports of goods and services)

Debt Service 6.3 b.5 9.3 9.2 5.0 8.9Amortization 3.5 2.6 2.6 4.9 4.3 4.8Interest 2.8 3.9 6.7 4.3 o.7 4.1

(in percent of current revenues of consolidated public sectorand public enterprise savings)

Debt Service 22.8 19.7 25.9 26.1 15.7 20.6Amortization 12.6 7.9 7.3 13.8 13.4 11.1Interest 10.2 11.3 18.6 12.3 2.3 9.5

/ Excludes private debt and official debt with ECCB.

- 42 -

Table 9: MfTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PROJECTIONS Of ET ERVICEl/

(US$ millions)

19S6 1987 1988 1989 1990

hwt. lot. Total Aut. lnt. Total hArt. lnt. Total krwt. lnt. Total Amrt. tnt. Total

Groca Exterwl Oebt 7.0 9.5 16.5 16.1 10.0 26.1 30.2 11.7 41.9 15.1 7.6 22.7 15.1 6.6 21.7

C0ntfal GOsormont 3.7 3.4 7.1 0.7 2.7 3.4 2.3 2.7 5.0 2.3 2.5 4.8 2.3 2.4 4.7

Official 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7

Cmrclal 3.2 3.2 6.A 0.2 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.5 4,3 1 .8 2.3 4.1 1.8 2.2 4.0

Govormvnt Guaranteed 3.3 6.1 9.4 15.4 7.3 22.7 27.9 9.0 36.9 12.8 5.1 17.9 12.8 4.2 17.0

Official 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5

Cantclal 3.1 6.0 9.7 15.1 7.1 22.2 27.7 8.8 36.5 12.5 4.9 17.4 12.5 4.0 16.5

- 43 -

Table 10: ANTlGUA AND BARBUDA - TOURISM(EC$ million)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Stayover Visitors 97901 95755 97335 113053 141567 152641By air 86571 84724 87042 1U1113 129149 139726Seal/ 1133U 11031 10293 11940 12418 12915Cruise Passengers 107094 113357 66768 51987 b6808 100839

(in number of days)

Average Length of StayYacht 9.5 10.0 1U.2 10.2 10.8 10.8Hotel 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.3 8.0 8.0Private Residence 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.7 8.7

(In US4)

Average Expen. per dayYacht 18.40 21.70 23.20 23.70 25.U0 Z6.UUHotel 7U.70 83.50 89.30 91.U0 96.1U 99.80Private Residence 17.70 20.90 22.30 22.7U 24.u( 24.9uCruise Ship 26.UU 25.00 24.0U 24.60 25.90 Z6.90

(In millions US*)

Total Expenditure 38.6 44.9 49.5 58.8 90.0 101.6Yacht 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.6Hotel 3U.8 35.7 40.9 49.7 79.4 89.2Private Residence 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.1Cruise Ship 2.7 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.7

(%)

Annual Changes

Stayover visitors -1.6 -2.2 1.7 16.2 25.2 7.8Cruise passengers 52.4 5.9 -41.1 -22.1 28.5 5U.9Total Expenditures 12.6 16.3 10.2 18.8 53.1 12.9

1/ Mainly on yachts.

Source: Antigua Department of Tourism, IMF staff estimates and mission estimates.

- 44 -

Table lit ANTIGUA AMD BARBUDA, COST OF LIVING INDEX

Alcoholic Household

Food Beverages Clothing Operations

All and and Hous- Util- and Trane- and Mis-

Items Beverages Tobacco Ing Itles Accessories portatlon cellaneous

Weights 1,000.0 428.8 56.0 233.2 5S.S 74.7 100.0 71.7

(1969-100)

Period averege

1978 270.5 325.5 243.3 177.2 226.9 291.9 269.4 270.1

1979 314.2 367.2 289.7 190.5 315.9 322.8 385.0 301.6

1980 374.4 431.2 339.3 230.6 448.4 365.2 454.1 360.8

1981 417.3 485.6 380.7 250.0 475.2 426.6 495.0 410.1

1982 434.7 503.8 385.3 255.1 495.5 480.9 497.9 450.9

1983 444.9 513.4 396.6 255.7 495.7 511.2 497.9 492.0

1984 462.3 542.8 404.9 261.9 495.7 542.3 497.9 499.9

1985 466.5 554.8 409.7 259.9 496.S 524.7 514.4 490.5

End of period

1970 284.5 350.9 251.1 177.4 230.9 293.7 276.9 295.5

1979 339.0 390.2 317.5 207.6 368.6 349.2 410.0 338.7

1980 400.4 468.2 355.6 239.2 463.8 388.1 486.1 386.7

1981 428.5 500.5 380.7 258.0 474.7 436.9 497.9 436.5

1982 436.6 499.5 387.9 250.5 495.7 539.5 497.9 452.0

1983 452.3 525.8 387.2 258.1 495.7 529.1 497.9 499.7

1984 469.4 557.3 417.0 262.5 495.7 534.9 497.9 515.2

1985 459.8 546.9 381.2 251.5 495.7 S05.8 514.4 503.9

(Percentage Change)

Period average

1978 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.1 5.5 2.7 5.5 12.2

1979 16.2 12.8 19.1 7.5 39.2 10.6 42.9 11.7

1980 19.2 17.4 17.1 21.1 42.0 13.1 18.1 19.6

1981 11.5 12.6 12.2 8.4 6.0 16.8 8.9 13.7

1982 4.2 4.4 1.2 2.0 4.3 12.5 0.6 10.1

1983 2.3 1.9 2.9 0.2 - 6.3 - 9.1

1984 3.9 5.7 2.1 2.4 - 6.1 - 1.6

1985 0.9 2.2 1.2 -0.8 0.2 -3.2 3.3 -1.9

End of period

1978 6.5 5.9 8.1 5.2 3.5 -- 5.7 25.9

1979 19.2 11.2 26.4 17.0 59.6 18.9 48.1 14.6

1980 18.1 20.0 12.0 15.2 25.8 11.1 18.6 14.2

1981 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.9 2.4 12.6 2.5 12.9

1982 4.1 3.8 2.4 -2.7 4.4 22.9 -- 5.4

1983 3.6 5.3 -0.2 3.0 - -1.9 - 10.6

1984 3.8 6.0 7.7 1.7 - 1.1 - 3.1

1985 -2.0 -1.9 -8.6 -4.2 - -5.4 3.3 -2.2

Sourcess Ministry of FlnanCe (Statistics Dlvislon).

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