Anthropogenic Global Warming

Is Earth at the tipping point?

By: Geoffrey Pohanka

Objectives

Examine in a thorough, yet understandable way, the theory of man made global warming

Analyze plausibility

Discuss what the primary driver of climate change is

Give a prediction of the global climate for the next 20 years

Observation

• Temperatures on earth have been rising moderately….

• So there is some “ warming” ….from whatever cause.

But recent warming is not globalThe warming is only in the Northern Hemisphere

(Source: David Archibald)

• Atmospheric temperatures have increased about .2 degrees C since 1979 (using satellite data)

• Despite this what do the supporters of the man made global warming theory (AGW) predict for the remaining years of the 21st Century?

Supporters of AGW predict temperatures will rise as much as 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100

Polar ice and glaciers will melt. The Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within five years

Sea level will rise up to 20 feet by 2100

Hurricanes and their intensity will increase.

The rapidly changing climate will threaten species with extinction

Resulting in millions of climate refugees

But will this happen?

Words of wisdom/Rules of the road

• Scientific Method……

Consists of theories and concepts that must be proven through observation.

“Principles and procedures for the systematic pursuit of knowledge involving the recognition and formulation of a problem, the collection of data through observation and experiment, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.”

(Wikipedia)

“No amount of experimentation can prove me right, but a single experiment can prove me wrong.”

Einstein

President Dwight D. Eisenhower gave two warnings in his farewell address to the nation, regarding:

“The military industrial complex” (and also…..)

The “ domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is to be greatly regarded”…

“…we must be alert to….the danger that public policy itself

become captive of the scientific-technological elite”

Question: Is it warmer than it has ever been?With the exception of the recent Ice Ages the Earth’s

temperature today is cooler than most of the last sixty-five million years.

(chart reads right to left) (source: James Zachos)

The earth has been in an ice age much of the last 400,000 years. The earth’s temperature in each of the last four interglacial

periods was several degrees warmer than today. (source: Vostok Ice Core, Law Ice Dome, Mauna Loa air sample)

We are in an 11,000 year interglacial period called the Holocene. It has been warmer than today quite a few times in this period.

This warming is from natural causes and not man.

Temperatures were several degrees warmer than today in the Bronze Age, the Roman Age, and the Medieval Period. The earth cooled several degrees

from 1400 to 1800, this period is called “The Little Ice Age”. The Earth’s warming started in the early 1700s, long before CO2 was a factor.

U.S. has tracked continental temperatures since 1895

U.S. temperatures have been cooler in five of the last seven decades even though CO2 levels increased in this period.

The forty year cooling period from the late 30’s to 70’s caused some to fear the return of an ice age.

The 1970s cooling scare

Headline: January 1977

The ten warmest years in the U.S.

• 1934• 1998• 1921• 1906• 1931• 1999• 1953• 1990• 1938• 1939• Five of the ten warmest years in the USA were before 1940• The warmest decade in the USA was the 1930s (Source: NASA GISS)

The year that the record high temperature was recorded in each of the continents

• 1920 South America

• 1977 Europe• 1960 Australia• 1913 North America• 1922 Africa• 1933 Asia• 1974 Antarctica• 1960 Oceana (Source: Wikipedia)

1885-2008 U.S. 50-State Record High Temperatures Many were before 1955 (source: Hallofrecord.blogspot.com)

The U.S. has the longest and most comprehensive record of temperature data from ground weather stations

(source: Climateskeptic.com)

Most parts of the globe do not keep consistent track of the climate. This map shows weather stations reporting data at least 67% of the time

from 1978-2007 (Source: GHCN)

In the early 1990s climate data stopped being collected from thousands of global weather stations. Many of these stations were in cooler rural areas

such as Siberia. Temperatures appeared to rise as the stations were dropped. How temperature is collected impacts the data.

(source: Joe D’Aleo)

One way the U.S. tracks temperature is from 1,221 ground weather stations.

These stations are supposed to be kept at a distance from buildings, roadways, and trees

(Source: Anthony Watts)

(

Observation shows that many stations are poorly located next to buildings and gravel roadways

Adjacent to buildings, cars, parking lots, satellite dishes, and air conditioners

On hot rooftops

Next to trash burn barrels and tennis courts

Temperatures rose at this station when the nearby tennis court was built

Adjacent to transformers, buildings, and dumpsters

Next to A/C condensors

Many weather stations are located at airports

In sewage treatment plants. This one is next to a smoker’s urn

Some are in backyards and people’s “stuff”Changes within close proximity to climate stations impacts the

temperatures that are recorded.

Some weather stations are near barbeque grills. Burgers anyone?

In junkyards

These two stations are forty miles apart and show different results due to the proximity of development.

This demonstrates the impact of land use changes on ‘local’ temperatures.

• Of the 1,221 U.S. ground weather stations 82% have been

independently surveyed.

• Anthony Watts has found that 89% of the stations checked are poorly located and are within 100 feet of an artificial heat source that causes a heat bias of 1 degree C to 5 degrees C

• These ground weather stations have been encroached by development and thus show higher temperatures due to the

“heat island effect”

• Attempts are made to correct temperature readings as a result of land use changes but…….by whom? And how?

Results of the 1,221 USCHN surface weather station quality ratings

(Source: Anthony Watts)

Location of U.S. climate stations and their ratings Bias rating factor

URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT

The world’s population has increased six-fold in the last 100 years. The growing urbanization has caused “local” temperatures to rise.

(heat from the day is slower to dissipate at night in urban areas)The chart below shows how the city of Reno Nevada

retains the heat of the day as one drives from the suburbs into the city. (source: Anthony Watts)

The official EPA description of ‘heat islands’ (source: http://www.epa.gov/heatislands/index.htm)

• “the term "heat island describes built up areas that are hotter than nearby rural areas. The annual mean air temperature of a city with 1 million people or more can be 1.8–5.4°F (1–3°C) warmer than its surroundings. In the evening, the difference can be as high as 22°F (12°C)”

As atmospheric CO2 levels increase how are temperatures reacting ?

U.S. temperatures in 2008 were below the 115 year average

U.S. 2009 Summer temperatures were the 34th coldest in 115 years.

U.S. October 2009 temperatures were the 3rd coldest ever for that month, 4 degrees below normal. December 2009 temps were the 4th coldest ever for that month.

(Source: U.S. National Climate Data Center)

In February 2010 North America had the largest area of snow cover ever recorded.

The Northern Hemisphere had the second largest ever. (Source: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab)

Atmospheric temperatures do not have a bias from land use changes.They show cooling since 2002

(satellite measurement of atmospheric temps began in 1979)

70% of the earth is ocean. Argo (part of the inter global observation strategy) measures the

earth’s ocean temperature with over 3,000 buoys (Source: ARGO)

Argo buoys dive 700 meters deep, surface, and then send their temperature data to satellites

Argo has discovered that ocean temperatures have not been warming but are somewhat cooler

(source: Dr. Craig Loehle, PhD)

This ocean cooling is contrary to climate model predictions (source: John Willis, NASA, Craig Loehle, PhD)

Ocean surface temperatures are influenced by winds (El Nino-La Nina). They also show a cooling trend.

No heat sinks have been discovered.

Let’s explore Carbon DioxideAtmospheric CO2 today is near the lowest level

in the last 540 million years (Source: the Resilient Earth)

Three ice ages had more atmospheric CO2 than today’s level.

Ordovician-Silurian Ice Age - fifteen times more CO2 than today.

Cretaceous Ice Age - five times more.

Permian-Jurassic Ice Age - more CO2 than today as well.

Either CO2 does not cause much warming……natural forces are much stronger…..or both.

(source: Ian Plimer)

CO2 is less than 4/10,000ths of the atmosphere

• CO2 is a trace gas, there is not much of it.

• There are 100,000 molecules in front of your face and only 38 of them are CO2, (388 parts per million)

CO2 has grown 100ppm since the mid 1700s (+35%)

• CO2 as a percent of the atmosphere has grown only 1/10,000th since the mid 1700s

(if you had ten cents in your pocket and it increases by 40%, the increase as a percentage is large, but there is still not much of an overall impact caused by it)

Global temperatures are cooling even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations are growing

(source: Univ of Alabama Huntsville, NOAA)

Greenhouse gases slow the release of heat from the atmosphere. This is one reason why the earth’s

temperature is different from the Moon. Water vapor comprises 95% of greenhouse gases.

(source: www.geocraft.com)

CO2 makes up 3.62% of greenhouse gases. But only 3.4% of atmospheric CO2 comes from human sources, the rest is from the oceans, decomposing vegetation and volcanoes. Thus man

made sources of CO2 are only responsible for 0.15% of all greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

(source: Heritage Foundation)

Question: How much warming can CO2 cause?

• Higher levels of CO2 do cause some warming. However, CO2s ability to absorb heat is logarithmic, meaning the more CO2 there is, the less heat it can absorb.

• If CO2 levels double or triple, CO2, by itself, can not cause temperatures to rise more than 0.5 to 1.5 degrees C

• For CO2 to cause warming above 1.5 degrees Centigrade rising levels of CO2 must cause positive feedbacks

Positive feedback, sometimes referred to as "cumulative causation", refers to a situation where some effect causes more of itself. A system undergoing positive feedback is unstable, that is, it will tend to spiral out of control as the effect amplifies itself.

(Source: Wikipedia)

Rising levels of CO2 can only cause rising temperatures above about 1 degree C if it also causes more water vapor in the atmosphere/ heat trapping cirrus clouds/ or a reduction in clouds.

But observation shows this does not happen.

Warming causes more low level clouds to form, it rains and temperatures cool. Low level clouds are negative feedbacks, they moderate temperature.

Cirrus Clouds slow the release of heat from the atmosphere. Observation shows that fewer of these clouds form when air

temperatures warm.

C02’s absorption of heat is logarithmic, the more there is the less heat it can absorb

(source: David Archibald)

The first 20ppm of CO2 absorbs more heat than the next 580ppm (source: David Archibald)

Rising levels of CO2 have not had much impact on temperature by themselves

(source: Richard Lindzen)

Rapid temperature change is a daily, seasonal occurrence

• The difference between the daily low and high temperature is about 20 degrees F

• Difference between record low and high Virginia state temperatures is 140 degrees F

• Mankind and nature survived these radical temperature changes, (they adapted)

Effect of CO2 on temperatures at two locations, each at the same latitude

Dry desert Humid jungle

The impact of humidity, H2O, and CO2 on high/low temperatures

• The slight impact of warming from CO2 can be demonstrated from the temperature changes between the low and high temperature in humid tropical and dry desert areas

• Tropical areas are cooler in the day than the desert and are also warmer at night, due to the stabilizing effect of humidity.

• In desert areas temperatures are both warmer in the day and cooler in night than tropical areas.

• CO2 levels are about the same in both areas, yet the CO2 in the desert does not trap/retain the heat of the day. This demonstrates that CO2 by itself does not cause much warming and how important water vapor is in stabilizing temperature.

The theory of AGW• The theory of man made global warming states that increases in

atmospheric CO2 from man will absorb heat and cause temperatures to rise. This warming from additional concentrations of CO2 is said to cause increasing levels of humidity which in turn absorbs even more heat, creating a vicious cycle with rising temperatures spinning out of control.

• If this theory is correct, why has runaway global warming not occurred in earlier times, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much higher than today’s?

• Temperatures and humidity also rise substantially in summer. This has not triggered runaway temperatures, either.

Observation shows the theory of AGW to be false.

CO2 is essential for life on Earth

• CO2 levels were 270ppm in the mid 1700s (they are 380ppm today).

• If CO2 levels fall below 200ppm, plants stop growing. Photosynthesis stops.

• Most life on Earth was thus close to extinction due to a lack of atmospheric CO2

Plants today grow 15% more quickly due to the higher level of CO2.

Greenhouses raise CO2 levels to 1,000ppm to increase the growth rate of plants.

Average growth enhancement due to a 300 PPM increase in atmospheric CO2. Higher levels of CO2 can help feed a growing global population.

(source David Archibald)

+49% C3 cereals +20% C4 cereals +24% Fruits and melons +44% Legumes +48 % Roots and tubers +37% vegetables

• With rising levels of atmospheric CO2:

Plants require less water to grow.

Arid areas of earth become more productive agriculturally

Question: Is storm intensity increasing due to AGW?U.S. tornado activity is in decline

(source: Plantsneedco2.org)

Global hurricane intensity is at 50 year lows2009 US Hurricane activity is at 12 year lows

(source: Florida State University)

Global deaths due to extreme events is in decline (source: appinys.org)

Question: Is the polar ice melting due to AGW?

• The earth is in an interglacial period. There is an imbalance with the ice that remains at the poles from the last Ice Age and the warmer temperature of the Holocene. Slow melting has been going on for thousands of years and will continue.

• At the Poles, 20,000,000 square kilometers of sea ice melt and then refreeze every year. As one pole melts the other freezes, thus there is an offsetting balance

• Massive ice melt is natural and happens every single year

Both poles lose substantial amount of sea ice every year in the polar Summer

• Question:

If the entire North Pole, all the Arctic ice melts, along with all the sea ice on earth at both Poles……

How high would the seas rise?

Answer: None at All

Floating ice is already in the ocean, displacing water.

Melting sea ice cannot raise the sea level.

• For the seas to rise, ice on land must melt.

• Greenland has 10% of the land ice

• Antarctica has 90%.

• Question: In what year did Antarctica, with 90% of the globe’s ice on land have the most sea ice ever recorded?

Answer: 2008

Antarctica had the most sea ice ever recorded in 2008

Antarctic sea ice has been growing almost continuously for the last 30 years

(source: The Air Vent)

Satellite data shows Antarctic atmospheric temperatures are cooling.

(Source: University of Alabama Huntsville)

There has been above average melting of the Arctic Summer sea ice but an almost equal growth in the Antarctic sea ice, a

net 1.6% reduction according to Nasateam since 1979.Total global sea ice volumes are remarkably stable.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center bootstrap method shows a 177,000km increase in average global sea ice since

1979

In September 2009 the Arctic ice had grown 24% larger than two years prior. The Antarctic ice was also one million sq kilometers larger than

the prior year. The Ice at both Poles is growing.Wind and currents have large impacts on the ice. Unusual winds and

sea currents were responsible for much of the extra melting of the Arctic sea ice. As these reversed the ice has begun to grow again.

Antarctica is the key to sea level rise

• Sea ice is greatly influenced by temperature, especially water temperature• Sea ice has been growing in Antarctica for 30 years. Temperatures have

been cooling in 96% of Antarctica for 50 years (but not the Peninsula)• The average temperature in Antarctic interior is -58 degrees F. It is also the

highest Continent on earth with an average altitude of 8,200 feet.• Antarctic glaciers/ice sheets melt from the bottom up, not the top down• Antarctica is classified as a desert. It is the driest place on earth. There is

little snow.• If the man made global warming theory is true, sea ice will melt, but the

higher humidity will cause much more snow in the interior and overall ice volumes will grow. This is also true of Greenland.

• Mankind has little impact on the climate in Antarctica

Scientific name for the Polar Bear is “Ursus Maritimus”, sea bear.Polar Bears are excellent swimmers and can easily swim 100 miles or

more. The longest documented swim is 320 km.Polar Bear populations are today the largest ever recorded, an

increase of 300%+ since the 1960sPolar Bears have survived previous periods when the Arctic ice melted

completely (source of polar bear population, US Senate)

The sea level has been rising for 20,000 years and the end of the last Ice Age. The rate of increase has slowed, and especially in

the last four years

(source: Wikipedia)

Some say rising CO2 will cause ocean acidification, killing corals

• If all the fossil fuels on earth were burned there would not be enough CO2 to cause the oceans to acidify.

• CO2 in the ocean is converted to carbonate. It becomes fixed in insoluble form, sinking to the ocean bottom.

• Coral reefs thrived when atmospheric CO2 was ten times higher and temperatures ten degrees warmer than today.

• Corals have adapted to changes in CO2 levels. (Source: Ian Plimmer)

Why has the earth been warming if not from rising CO2 levels? The Sun may be the answer.

• Unless one lives in a geothermal or volcanic area the source for the warm temperatures we have and need to sustain life comes entirely from the Sun.

• The Earth’s greenhouse gases are the reason our temperatures are not like those of the Moon, (-247 degrees F at night to +212 degrees F in day).

• Many climate scientists fail to look to the heavens to take a closer view of the Sun.

(source: Wiki Answers)

Galileo was the first to observe Sunspots

Galileo’s drawing of sunspots in 1613

An active Sun on the left and inactive Sun on the right.Sunspots are used to track solar activity. Solar activity is not

constant, the Sun has cycles that last an average of 11 years. We are now in cycle 24.

Changing solar activity is measured by observing and counting Sunspots. Note the variation of solar activity since 1610.

The observatory at Armagh Ireland has one of the longest continuous temperature records on earth. This chart tracks the

close relationship between temperature (dots) from 1796 and 11 year solar cycles (solid line).

(source: Armagh Observatory)

The length of Sunspot cycles appears to be more closely linked with temperatures than changing levels of CO2

(source: Friis-Christensen & Lassen . Dr. Tim Patterson)

The solar activity in the last years of the 20th Century was the strongest in the last 8,000 years.

This may explain why global temperatures were warming in this period (Source: Joe D’Aleo)

Solar cycles average 11 years in length, half are shorter and half are longer. When cycles are longer global temperatures cool and when they are shorter,

temperatures warm. There is no deviation over 400 years of observation

This shows how solar cycles are charted. A very active cycle was predicted starting in 2008 but solar activity abruptly changed.

Solar activity today is at century lows.

Solar activity is driven by the Sun’s internal magnetic field. It is measured using the AP Index.

The AP index is today at the lowest level ever recorded. Note that the low AP index in mid chart was during the 1970s cooling scare.

(Source: David Archibald)

Solar cycle lengths from 1762. Cycle 23, which ended in 2009, is the longest since 1788, a cycle that predated a several decade

long very cold period called the Dalton minimum (Source: Wattsupwiththat.com)

Using temperature and solar records at De Bilt Netherlands 1705 - 2000, demonstrates the close relationship between

solar cycle length and temperatures.With each additional year of cycle length above 11 years

temperatures cool an average of 0.7 degrees C. (source: David Archibald)

The central England temperature record since 1659 shows the same general relationship between solar cycle length in years

and temperature.

Using the record of temperature and solar cycle length at Hanover New Hampshire since 1835 one can see that the short solar cycle 22 of the 1990’s was during a warm period and the 12.5 year long cycle 23 will result in a 2.0

degree C reduction in temperature (3.6 deg F) at this location over the expected twelve year life of solar cycle 24. This cooling has already begun.

(Source: David Archibald, using Friis-Christenson Larsen theory)

The years 2007, 2008, and 2009 have some of the lowest solar activity since 1849. This might explain why global temperatures

have been cooling. (Source: Anthony Watts)

Solar winds today are at the lowest level every recorded. Changes in solar activity have impact on the atmosphere that

surrounds Earth.

Solar Impact on cloud formationThe impact on the earth’s climate from the Sun goes beyond irradiance (heat).

Solar winds have declined over 30% . Ultra violet radiation is down 6% to 8%. Cosmic rays reaching earth’s surface have also increased substantially.

Some scientists believe that changing solar activity affect global temperatures by causing changes within the atmosphere and especially the clouds. With today’s century low solar activity and record low solar winds it is thought that the increase in cosmic rays that reach our atmosphere from deep in space cause more clouds to form. Clouds reflect up to 65% of solar radiation back into space and when there are more clouds temperatures cool. Conversely, increasing solar activity and the resulting increase in solar winds reduces the amount of cosmic rays that reach the atmosphere, fewer clouds form, more solar rays reach the earth’s surface, and this leads to higher temperatures.

If the past is a predictor of the future the changes we now see in solar activity will cause the temperatures to cool for the next 20 years or longer. The Thames River at London should regularly freeze once again as it often did during the Little Ice Age and in the early 1800’s.

Relationship between cosmic rays and cloud formation.Changes in solar cycles effect temperatures for the next

decade or longer. (source: David Archibald)

The frozen Thames River at London in 1814 where Frost Fairs were held. We should see this once again in the

coming years.

Frozen canals of the Netherlands, in stories by Hans Christian Anderson

Conclusions• The earth’s current warming trend started in the mid 1700s

with the end of the Little Ice Age• Until we understand the natural forces that impact climate,

models cannot be relied upon to predict future temperatures with accuracy

• CO2 does not have much direct impact on temperature• Positive feedbacks caused by rising levels of CO2 have not

been observed• Rising CO2 levels have a beneficial impact on plant growth• There is little loss of overall global polar ice, though some

slow melting is normal. The melting of Arctic ice has no impact on sea level

• Sea levels have been rising for thousands of years, and some rise is normal

• Global hurricane intensity is at fifty year lows.

Conclusions• Global temperatures have been cooling for eight years or

more.• Polar bear populations are growing• Solar activity and temperature are closely linked. Today’s

century low solar activity is causing temperatures to drop. Temperatures could fall as quickly as the 70’s cooling scare but they could become colder and last longer. This would cause the loss of two weeks in the growing season on both ends (*) and result in significantly reduced crop production.

• Cold periods are much worse for humanity than warm ones. Cold periods in the past have been ones of famine, disease

and political instability• Man has little impact on global temperatures

(* David Archibald)

• For more information

• www.isthereglobalwarming.com• www.wattsupwiththat.com• www.icecap.us

• Contact author Geoffrey Pohanka 2120 Polo Pointe Dr Vienna, VA 22181 gpohanka@pohanka.com