Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMAT Andrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMAT

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Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMAT Andrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMAT Ajit Mandal, Software Developer, Proxient Technologies. Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea? District Fiscal Problems due to: Declining Enrollment Salary Compensation Health & Welfare Benefits - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMATAndrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMATAjit Mandal, Software Developer, Proxient Technologies</p></li><li><p>Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea?</p><p>District Fiscal Problems due to:Declining EnrollmentSalary CompensationHealth &amp; Welfare BenefitsChanges in State Economy</p></li><li><p>FCMAT recommendation:</p><p>Delay decisions regarding Collective Bargaining or significant ongoing expenditures until after 1/15/08;The Governor will soon declare a fiscal emergency;Mid-year cuts will be a reality;State of the State message delivered 1/8/08;The Preliminary State Budget will be released on January 10th.</p></li><li><p>FCMAT recommendation:</p><p>Regarding multi-year forecasting, the focus has to be on the current plus one additional year only.The states fiscal situation is too volatile and unstable to project further.Until housing, energy, construction and unemployment begin to move in a more positive direction, the states revenue position and cash will remain unstable which will affect Proposition 98.</p></li><li><p>FCMAT recommendation:</p><p>In the creation of a multi-year forecast using BE, create a projection using the 4.3% COLA (sourced from the SSC Projection Dartboard), and another reflecting a 0% COLA.Produces what if? analysis of alternative scenarios.</p></li><li><p>Historical Perspective:</p><p>SACS Software</p><p>Spreadsheets (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel)</p><p>MYP by </p></li><li><p>BEv2 System Requirements:Browser: Internet ExplorerPlatform: PC-BasedScreen Resolution: 1,280 x 1,024</p><p> This is a minimum resolution setting. Use of higher resolution settings is acceptable.</p></li><li><p>Logging Inwww.budgetexplorer.org</p><p>Morning Session:UsernamePasswordAccounts Already Exist For:oesquivelcookieSalyardscdaviscookieGiggymmendenhallcookieHartepquinncookieSchimelpfeningmflorescookieFavereauxkgaineycookieawentlandcookiekhowardcookie</p></li><li><p>Logging Inwww.budgetexplorer.org</p><p>Afternoon Session:UsernamePasswordAccounts Already Exist For:kgraggcookieHawkinskwatsoncookieEroDbentleycookieRiedmillerBhintoncookieRobinsoneisaacscookieBinghamThomas</p></li><li><p>Projection List Screen</p></li><li><p>Creating a New Projection:Projections are created by uploading SACS data obtained:from your financial system, or;from the states Financial Reporting (SACS) software. RL supplemental form data is uploaded as well (if it has been entered), thereby reducing data input.</p></li><li><p>Step 1:To import a new data file, use this radio button.To use a previously imported data file, use this radio button.Your list of available data files will grow over time, and older files will need to be removed.Use the button to remove data files that are no longer of value.</p></li><li><p>Step 2:Step 2a: Use these options to specify the data to use as your Base Year. The checkbox can be used to also upload Historical data. Historical data adds perspective by allowing visual comparison of Base Year data with prior year Estimated Actuals.Step 2b: Use this dropdown field to specify the Base Year.</p></li><li><p>Step 3:Select which fund to project forward using this dropdown field.Select how many years to project forward (2, 3, 4 or 5)</p></li><li><p>Step 4:</p></li><li><p>Home ScreenThe Button Bar provides access to frequently used screens.The Navigation Tree provides access to frequently used screens.</p></li><li><p>ENRADAStaffProjection VariablesRL $Other Revs, Exps.Salary ForecasterSalaries &amp; BenefitsEnding Fund BalanceFully Integrated System</p></li><li><p>Home ScreenChange the forecasting period or projection description.This toolbar offers:</p></li><li><p>A Five Minute Process</p><p>Steps:</p></li><li><p>Projection RulesValues for these rules are obtained from the SSC Projection Dartboard.Updates are made each time a new Dartboard is released.</p></li><li><p>How Rules WorkConsumer Price Index (CPI) rule settings:</p><p>Base YearRuleProjYr1ProjYr2ObjectDescription2006-07Name2007-082008-094100Texts/Materials100,000CPI103,000105,575BE looks up the value of the Projection Rule that has been applied for ProjYr1.BE applies the 3% increase to the Base Year and places the result in the 1st projected year.BE applies the 2.5% increase to ProjYr1 and places the result in the 2nd projected year.BE looks up the value of the Projection Rule that has been applied for ProjYr2.</p></li><li><p>Enrollment &amp; ADAThe Enr/ADA/Staffing area is divided into 2 screens: </p><p>5 years of state-reported CBEDS data is loaded automatically. Enrollment is projected based on the Weighted Moving Cohort Progression model.</p></li><li><p>Salary Forecaster</p></li><li><p>Revenue Limit Calculation</p></li><li><p>Reports</p></li><li><p>Sharing a ProjectionThe ability to share projections Separates BEv2 as an information sharing, planning, and collaboration resource; Can be R/O or; Can be R/W.</p></li><li><p>COE creates projection(s) for each district using SACS data and shares the projection(s) with district personnel for review and comment.Sharing a ProjectionDistrict OfficeDistrict creates projection(s) and when ready, shares the projection(s) with COE personnel for review and comment.County Office</p></li><li><p>End Thank You</p><p>Wednesday, 10/25/2006*Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance TeamCounty Office Fiscal Oversight WorkshopWednesday, 10/25/2006*Fiscal Crisis and Management Assistance TeamCounty Office Fiscal Oversight Workshop</p></li></ul>

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