Andrea AldenFlorida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN

to climate change

NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability

Index

Exposure– Temperature and moisture

Indirect exposure– SLR, barriers, land use

Species sensitivity – Dispersal ability– Sensitivity to change in temp

and precipitation– Habitat specificity– Genetic factors

Dispersal, niche, disturbance – Diet, genetics, …

Response– Range, protected areas

Defenders Partnership:Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)

Glick et al. 2011

All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org

CCVI: select SGCN scores

Extremely Vulnerable

Highly Vulnerable

Moderately Vulnerable

Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable

Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely

Relative vulnerabilities of our species

to climate change

NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability

Index tool

then

Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses

(SEVA)

Habitat modelingAnd

Future land-use scenarios

Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses• 6 focal species

2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer

50 years into the future– 2010, 2040, and 2060

Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions:– Climate change represented by sea level rise– Changes in human population represented by

urbanization– Land & water planning policies represented by

infrastructure expansion– Availability of public resources for conservation

Future Land-Use Scenarios

Future Land-Use Scenarios

Scenario Dimensions & Future Scenarios

Scenario B – best case Scenario E – middle Scenario C – worst case

SEVA ProcessAmerican Crocodile Orientation

3 future land use scenarios + habitat models = impact maps

SEVA Process

Relative vulnerabilities of our species

to climate change

NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability

Assessment tool

next

Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses

(SEVA)

Future land-use scenarios And

Habitat and modeling

Conceptual modelingAdded a spatial component

Potential adaptation strategiesAnd

Locations to implement

Conceptual Modeling

Adaptation Strategy Map

Obstacles & Lessons Learned

Good to have two methods– Different assumptions/caveats– Different data & uncertainties– Comparison of results

Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and time consuming

Models of vegetation change and succession under climate change is needed

Working with experts takes time but brings collaboration and buy-in

Andrea.Alden@MyFWC.comwww.MyFWC.com/wildlifelegacy

Adaptation Strategies1. Room to move strategies

• Fill data gaps on vegetational and species responses

• Habitat maintenance & improvement2. Competing with neighbors strategies• Research effects of roads & other

barriers, potential mitigation options• Work w/ private landowners to conserve

landscape features3. Surrounded on all sides strategies• Most difficult to address

Continue filling data gaps on species dynamics

Actively manage available habitat to bolster populations

Identify and conserve corridors