an introduction adapting to climate change v 1.00

An Introduction

Adapting to Climate Change

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An IntroductionAdapting to Climate Change

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What is Climate Change Adaptation?


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Climate Change Policy Context


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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

• Required by the UK Climate Change Act 2008;

• Will assess risks to the UK of current and predicted impacts of climate change to 2100;

• First assessment due in January 2012;

• A statutory adaptation programme will be produced following publication of the assessment.


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Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework

Adaptation framework sector action plans

Agriculture

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Resilience

Business and Industry

Emergency and Rescue Services

Energy

Forests and Forestry

Health and Wellbeing

Marine and Fisheries

Spatial Planning and Land Use

The Built Environment

Transport

Water Resource Management


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Public Bodies Climate Change Duties

‘All public bodies need to be resilient to the future climate and to plan for business continuity in relation to the delivery of their functions and the services they deliver to the wider community’.

Public Bodies Climate Change Duties: Putting them into practice, Scottish Government 2011


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Scotland’s Climate Change DeclarationLocal authority commitments to adaptation

• Ensuring that greenhouse gas emissions reduction and climate change adaptation measures are clearly incorporated into our new and existing strategies, plans and programmes, in line with sustainable development principles.

• Assessing the risks and opportunities for our services and our communities of predicted climate change scenarios and impacts, and take action to adapt accordingly in line with sustainable development principles.


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Scotland’s Climate Change DeclarationLocal authority commitments to adaptation

•Encouraging and working with others in our local community to take action to adapt to the impact of climate change, to

reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions and make public their commitment to action.

•Collaborating with other organisations to promote good practice on climate change mitigation and adaptation.


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Climate Information


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What is the difference between weather and climate?

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” Robert A. Heinlein

Climate is a long term average of weather (usually over 30 years) and trends in these average conditions are climate change.

Weather is what we experience hour-to-hour, day-to-day or even year-to-year, and as anyone living in Scotland will know, it can be highly variable.

On occasion weather may even appear at odds with long-term climate change (e.g. cold winter months in 2010). However, short-term variations aren’t

unexpected now or even well into the future.


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Change in Global Average Temperature 1850-2010

©


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Scotland’s Climate Has Already Changed

Observed Change in Scotland’s Climate (1914-2004)*

Temperature Recent temperatures for Scotland are the highest in the records, with average annual temperature increasing 1 °C between 1961 and 2004. This applies across all seasons.

Rainfall

Annual precipitation in Scotland increased by 21% between 1961 and 2004, with an almost 70% increase in winter precipitation for Northern Scotland. Heavy rainfall events have increased significantly in winter, particularly in northern and western regions.

Snow CoverThere has been a 25% reduction in winter days with snow cover, with even larger percentage decreases in spring and autumn. The snow season has shortened, starting later and finishing earlier in the year.

Frost DaysSince 1961 there has been a more than 25% reduction in the number of frost days across Scotland, with downward trend since the 1980s.

Growing Season The growing season is now nearly 5 weeks longer in Scotland (comparing 1961 to 2004), with the greatest change occurring at the beginning of the season.

Sea Level**Sea level at all of Scotland’s ports has been rising over the last century, with the rate accelerating over the last two decades (now exceeding 3-4 mm/yr in 9 out of 10 ports).

*The source A Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland (SNIFFER, 2006) compiles and analyses observed climate data across Scotland over the last century (1914-2004), providing a benchmark of observed climate trends for Scotland. For further information, see: www.climatetrendshandbook.sccip.org.uk**Recent analysis of sea level trends by Rennie and Hansom (2011)


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Change in Precipitation between 1961 and 2004

Winter Summer

The source A Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland (SNIFFER, 2006) compiles and analyses observed climate data across Scotland over the last century (1914-2004), providing a benchmark of observed climate trends for Scotland. For further information, see: www.climatetrendshandbook.sccip.org.uk


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http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) are the latest generation of climate information for the United Kingdom and provide information about changes in climate projected for this century.


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Projections of Future Climate Change

The key climate change trends for Scotland are:• Hotter, drier summers;• Milder, wetter autumn and winters.

We can also expect to see:• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought;• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events;• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall;• Sea level rise.


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2.3°C (1.1°C – 3.9°C)

summer mean temperature

London has summer mean temperature 3.5°C warmer than Edinburgh(comparing baseline 1961-1990)

2050s


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Hotter, Drier Summers

90% probability levelvery unlikely

to be more than


to be less than

50% probability levelcentral estimate

Change in Summer Mean Daily Temperature (°C)2080s - High Emissions (A1F1)


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Milder, Wetter Autumn and Winters


to be more than


to be less than

50% probability levelcentral estimate

Change in Winter Mean Precipitation (%)2080s - High Emissions (A1F1)


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Reduced Frost and SnowfallExtreme Precipitation Events

Increased Flooding

Image courtesy of Dundee City Council

Heatwaves & Extreme Temp.Drought & Water Shortages

Sea Level Rise


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Climate change is global...

...and this will have wide-ranging implications for Scotland


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Impacts of Climate Change


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Buildings need to be fit for purpose in a future climate

Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate, needing to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns. This will require appropriate design and building standards, but also adaptation of existing building stock.


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The natural environment has a critical role in responding to the challenges of climate change

In a changing climate action is required to secure the ecosystem services that support the economy and contribute to the quality of life in Scotland, as well as reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.

Local initiatives include the promotion of green networks which include space for natural flood management and wildlife corridors.


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Water environment and resource management will become more complex

Increases in the variability of river flows, intensity of rainfall events, surface water flooding, sea level rise, seasonality of rainfall and intervals of drought will present numerous and complex challenges.


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Rising seas threaten Scotland’s coastal communities and infrastructure

Sea level rise may lead to widespread impacts on Scotland’s coast, including potential for increased erosion and coastline retreat. Integrated coastal zone management that accounts for the impacts of rising sea level will be important in managing risks to infrastructure and assets near the coast.


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Effective land use and development planning has a critical role in adapting to a changing climate

Planning can ensure that new developments minimise vulnerability to climate change, as well as improving the resilience of existing infrastructure and communities.

It will need to balance competing pressures on land use to achieve continued sustainable economic growth.


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Climate change may damage infrastructure and disrupt transport networks

The potential for increased flooding, erosion and landslides, storms and wind, and rising sea levels may damage the transport infrastructure and lead to disruption and delays for a large number of users. Organisations need to consider how this might affect the delivery of vital services.


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The demands on emergency and rescue services will change

In a changing climate emergency services may need to respond to an increased frequency and severity of flooding, landslide and wildfire events. There may also be changes in social and recreational behaviour that present new challenges to the emergency and rescue services.

Organisations need to consider whether planning, staff, equipment and resources can respond to changing pressures.


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The demands on emergency and rescue services will changeAs the climate changes so will the challenges to the health and wellbeing of individuals and communities across Scotland. In particular, climate change may lead to more disruptive flooding events and an increased occurrence of other weather related impacts in Scotland.


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Next Steps


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Benefits of a planned approach

By taking early action to adapt our organisation can:

- Implement actions that will assist with full filling the public bodies climate change duties (section 44 Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009);

- Identify services, facilities, locations and communities that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts;

- Identify cost effective actions that build resilience;


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Benefits of a planned approach

- Improve the capacity of stakeholder organisations to adapt to the impacts of climate change;

- Ensure that climate change impacts are considered as part of business continuity and emergency planning;

- Exploit business opportunities that may emerge as a result of changes in climate;

- Maintain reputation for delivering quality and effective services in spite of the challenge of climate change.


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First steps to developing a planned approach

Assessing the impacts of recent past weather events

- How have we been impacted by recent past weather events?- How might we be affected by the projected changes in climate – a first look at impacts?

This assessment can be done by carrying out a Local Climate Impact Profile project or undertaking a series of workshops with key departments and stakeholders.


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First steps to developing a planned approach

Reviewing existing plans and policies

- Are we already doing work that will help us adapt to climate change?- Are there plans / policies already in place that should include actions to help us adapt to climate change?

This review can help us to identify where we are doing well and highlight opportunities for integrating adaptation effectively into appropriate plans and policies.

SCCIP Partnership:

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Thank you

http://www.sniffer.org.uk/default.aspx


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Optional Extras


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Sum

mer

Win

ter

Hotter

Milder

Drier

Wetter

Perth


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Aviemore

Hotter

Milder

Drier

Wetter

Sum

mer

Win

ter


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Glasgow

Hotter

Drier

Wetter

Sum

mer

Win

ter

Milder

an introduction adapting to climate change v 1.00

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