amr merrill lynch pres

21
1 Gerard Arpey Gerard Arpey Chairman & CEO Chairman & CEO

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Page 1: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

1

Gerard ArpeyGerard ArpeyChairman & CEOChairman & CEO

Page 2: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

2

Safe HarborSafe Harbor• Please note that many of our statements, including

any comments on matters related to our outlook for revenue and earnings, cost estimates, and forecasts of capacity, traffic, load factor, fuel costs and other matters will constitute forward-looking statements. These matters are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. These factors include domestic and international economic conditions, commodity prices, general competitive factors including, but not limited to, government regulations, uncertainty in domestic or international operations, acts of war or terrorism, our ability to access the capital markets and changes in the Company's business strategy, any of which could affect our actual results.

• Please note that many of our statements, including any comments on matters related to our outlook for revenue and earnings, cost estimates, and forecasts of capacity, traffic, load factor, fuel costs and other matters will constitute forward-looking statements. These matters are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. These factors include domestic and international economic conditions, commodity prices, general competitive factors including, but not limited to, government regulations, uncertainty in domestic or international operations, acts of war or terrorism, our ability to access the capital markets and changes in the Company's business strategy, any of which could affect our actual results.

Page 3: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Safe Harbor (cont.)Safe Harbor (cont.)• Additional information concerning these and other

factors is contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to our Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2007.

• Additionally, please refer to the slide presentation accompanying today’s webcast at www.aa.com for reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measurement we may discuss to what we think is the most appropriate GAAP measurement.

• Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to our Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2007.

• Additionally, please refer to the slide presentation accompanying today’s webcast at www.aa.com for reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measurement we may discuss to what we think is the most appropriate GAAP measurement.

Page 4: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 5: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

1/2007 3/2007 5/2007 7/2007 9/2007 11/2007 1/2008 3/2008 5/2008

$ / B

arre

l

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

1/2007 3/2007 5/2007 7/2007 9/2007 11/2007 1/2008 3/2008 5/2008

$ / B

arre

lOil PriceOil Price

1/ WTI Spot Prices1/ WTI Spot Prices

1/3/07 - $58.321/3/07 - $58.32

6/17/08 - $134.016/17/08 - $134.01

1/1/

Page 6: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 7: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Fuel Increases Offset Cost ReductionsFuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast

Page 8: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Fuel HedgingFuel Hedging

• 2Q08– 36% hedged at $2.38/gal

• FY08– 33% hedged at $2.55/gal

• 2Q08– 36% hedged at $2.38/gal

• FY08– 33% hedged at $2.55/gal

Per Eagle Eye 8-K: June 18, 2008Per Eagle Eye 8-K: June 18, 2008

Page 9: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Fuel Increases Offset Cost ReductionsFuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

Fuel Increases2002 - 2008E

$7.5B

Fuel Increases2002 - 2008E

$7.5B

2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast

Page 10: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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New and Modified FeesNew and Modified Fees

1st Checked Bag Fee

2nd Checked Bag Fee

Domestic Change Fee

Confirmed Flight Charge

Int’l Change Fee

Res Service Fee

Liquor and Food for Sale

1st Checked Bag Fee

2nd Checked Bag Fee

Domestic Change Fee

Confirmed Flight Charge

Int’l Change Fee

Res Service Fee

Liquor and Food for Sale

Several Several Hundreds of Hundreds of Millions of Millions of

DollarsDollars

Page 11: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 12: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Mainline Capacity4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Mainline Capacity

Announcement Date

Announcement Date

4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Mainline Capacity

4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Mainline Capacity

1/16/081/16/08 (0.2%)(0.2%)

4/16/084/16/08 (4.6%)(4.6%)

5/21/085/21/08 (11%) – (12%)(11%) – (12%)

Page 13: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Aircraft RetirementsAircraft Retirements

40 - 45 Mainline Jets

35 - 40 Regional Jets

26 Saabs

101 – 111 Total Aircraft

40 - 45 Mainline Jets

35 - 40 Regional Jets

26 Saabs

101 – 111 Total Aircraft

Page 14: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 15: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Fleet ReplacementFleet Replacement

Page 16: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 17: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Net DebtNet Debt

18.917.5 17.1 16.3

13.6

11.0 10.7

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08

$ B

illio

n

18.917.5 17.1 16.3

13.6

11.0 10.7

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08

$ B

illio

n

>$8B

Page 18: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 19: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Pension FundingPension Funding

2003

73%

2003

73%

2007

96%

2007

96%

Page 20: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Page 21: AMR Merrill Lynch Pres

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Gerard ArpeyGerard ArpeyChairman & CEOChairman & CEO