hany's jcdl doctoral consortium
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Detecting, Modeling, & Predicting User Temporal Intention
in Social Media
Hany M. SalahEldeen Old Dominion University
Advisor: Dr. Michael L. Nelson
JCDL ‘12 Doctoral Consortium
Michael Jackson Dies
Snapshot on: June 25th 2009 http://web.archive.org/web/20090625232522/http://www.cnn.com/
Jeff tweets about it…
Published on: June 25th 2009 https://twitter.com/mdnitehk/status/2333993907
Jenny is off the grid
Jeff’s friend Jenny was on a vacation in Hawaii for a month…
Jenny starts catching up a month later
Read on: July26th 2009
When she came back she checked Jeff’s tweets and was shocked!
https://twitter.com/mdnitehk/status/2333993907
Jenny follows the link on July 26th
CNN page on: July 26th 2009 http://web.archive.org/web/20090726234411/http://www.cnn.com/
Jenny is confused!
• Implication:
– Jenny thought Jeff is making a joke about her favorite singer and she got mad at him
• Problem:
– The tweet and the resource the tweet links to have become unsynchronized.
The Egyptian Revolution
Reading about it on Storify in March 2012….
http://storify.com/maq4sure/egypts-revolution
I noticed some shared images are missing
http://storify.com/maq4sure/egypts-revolution
Some tweets are still intact…
https://twitter.com/miss_amy_qb/status/32477898581483521
…and some lost their meaning with the disappearance of the images
Missing ? https://twitter.com/aishes/status/32485352102952960
https://twitter.com/omar_chaaban/status/32203697597452289
The tweet remains but the shared image disappeared…
http://yfrog.com/h5923xrvbqqvgzj
Cairo….we have a problem
• Implication:
– The reader cannot understand what the author of the tweet meant because the image is not available.
• Problem:
– The post is available but the linked resource (image) is completely missing.
The Anatomy of a Tweet
The Anatomy of a Tweet Author’s username
Other user mention
Tweet Body
Hash Tag Shortened URL to resource
Publishing timestamp
Social Post
Shared Resource
Interaction options
3 URIs = 3 Chances to fail
Explanation in MJ’s example
… t1
t4
t2
t3 t5 t7 t8 t9 tn
t6
User’s Temporal Intention
Share time Implicit Explicit
Click time Implicit Explicit
Engineering problem Solved by providing
tools
The Focus of our research
Out of our scope Purview of Facebook, Twitter, Google, …etc
Instrumented shortener
Instrumented web client
Sometimes you want a previous version
The Correct Temporal Intention
CNN.com at the closest time to the tweet: 25th June 2009 ~ 7pm
Sometimes you want the current version
The Correct Temporal Intention
In this case the current state of the press releases page
Research Question
Can we estimate the users’ intention at the time of posting
and reading to predict and maintain temporal consistency?
Research Goals
• Detect the temporal intention of the:
1. Author upon sharing time
2. The reader upon dereferencing time
• Model this intention as a function of time, nature of the resource, and its context.
• Predict how resources change with time and the intention behind
sharing them to minimize inconsistency.
• Implement the prediction model to automatically preserve
vulnerable social content that is prone to change or loss.
• Create an environment implementing this framework that
provides a smooth temporal navigation of the social web.
Related Work • User’s Web Search Intention
– A. Ashkan ECIR ’09
– C. Lee AINA ‘05
– A. Loser IRSW ‘08
– L. Azzopardi ECIR ‘09
– R. Baeza-Yates SPIR‘06
– N. Dai HT ’11
• Commercial Intention – Q. Guo SIGIR ’10
– A. Benczur AIRWeb ’07
• Sentiment Analysis – G. Mishne AAAI ‘06
– J. Bollen JCS ‘11
• Access to Archives – H. Van de Sompel OR‘09
• Persistence of shared resources – M. Nelson D-Lib ‘02
– R. Sanderson OR’11
– F. McCown JCDL ‘07
• URL Shortening – D. Antoniades WWW ’11
• Tweeting, Micro-blogging and Popularity – S. Wu WWW ’11
– A. Java SNA-KDD ’07
– H. Kwak WWW ’10
• Social Networks Growth and Evolution
– B. Meeder WWW ’11
BEGIN
PhD Defense
Read Literature Collect Datasets Analyze Archives Coverage Analyze Shortened URIs Prototype Application Analyze Shared Resources Persistence and Coverage
Analyze Contextual Intention
Create Intention-based dataset Extract Intention Features Train a Parametric Model to predict intention Evaluate, test, cross-validate the model Create a mockup application Extend the model to induce preservation Finish Writing the Dissertation
Current State
Dissertation Plan
BEGIN
PhD Defense
Read Literature Collect Datasets
Analyze Archives Coverage Analyze Shortened URIs Prototype Application Analyze Shared Resources Persistence and Coverage
Analyze Contextual Intention
Create Intention-based dataset Extract Intention Features Train a Parametric Model to predict intention Evaluate, test, cross-validate the model Create a mockup application Extend the model to induce preservation Finish Writing the Dissertation
Dissertation Plan
Estimating Web Archiving Coverage • Goal: Estimate how much of the public web is present in the public archives
and how many copies are available? • Action:
– Getting 4 different datasets from 4 different sources: • Search Engines Indices • Bit.ly • DMOZ • Delicious.
• Results: *
• Publications: – How much of the web is archived? JCDL '11
* Table Courtesy of Ahmed AlSum JCDL 2011
BEGIN
PhD Defense
Read Literature Collect Datasets Analyze Archives Coverage
Prototype Application Analyze Shared Resources Persistence and Coverage
Analyze Contextual Intention
Create Intention-based dataset Extract Intention Features Train a Parametric Model to predict intention Evaluate, test, cross-validate the model Create a mockup application Extend the model to induce preservation Finish Writing the Dissertation
Dissertation Plan
Analyze Shortened URIs
Shortened URI analysis • Goal: Have a better understanding of URI shortening and resolving,
understand the effect of time on this process and the correlation between the page’s features and characteristics, and its resolution.
• Action:
– Fresh Bit.lys
– Get hourly clicklogs, rate of change, social networking spread, and other contextual information
– Longitudinal study
• Evaluation:
– Compare results with frequency of change analysis of Cho and Garcia-Molina.
– Compare results with Antoniades et al. WWW 2011.
BEGIN
PhD Defense
Read Literature Collect Datasets Analyze Archives Coverage
Prototype Application
Analyze Shared Resources Persistence and Coverage
Analyze Contextual Intention
Create Intention-based dataset Extract Intention Features Train a Parametric Model to predict intention Evaluate, test, cross-validate the model Create a mockup application Extend the model to induce preservation Finish Writing the Dissertation
Dissertation Plan
Analyze Shortened URIs
Estimating Loss of Shared Resources in Social Media
• Goal: Estimate how much of the public web is present in the public archives and how many copies are available?
• Action:
– Sampling from 6 public events
– Events spanning 3 years
– Existence in the current web
– Existence in the public archives
– Find relation with time
• Results:
– After 1st year ~11% will be lost
– After that we will continue on losing 0.02% daily
• Publications:
– A year after the Egyptian revolution, 10% of the social media documentation is gone. http://ws-dl.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-02-11-losing-my-revolution-year.html
– Losing my revolution: How Many Resources Shared on Social Media Have Been Lost? TPDL '12
BEGIN
PhD Defense
Read Literature Collect Datasets Analyze Archives Coverage
Prototype Application
Analyze Shared Resources Persistence and Coverage
User Intention Analysis
Create Intention-based dataset Extract Intention Features Train a Parametric Model to predict intention Evaluate, test, cross-validate the model Create a mockup application Extend the model to induce preservation Finish Writing the Dissertation
Dissertation Plan
Analyze Shortened URIs
User Intention Analysis • Goal: Have a better understanding of User Intention and what factors affect
it. Also create a new testing and training set.
• Action:
– Get a sample set of tweets selected at random
– Extract the URIs
– Get closest Memento
– Download the snapshot & current version
– Use Amazon’s Mechanical Turk in choosing the best version
• Evaluation:
– Measure cross-rater agreement and confidence.
Proposed Work
• Data Gathering
• Feature Extraction
• Modeling the intention engine
• Evaluation
• Application: Prediction and Preservation
Possible Solution for Jenny
Possible Solution for Jenny
The resource has changed since last time it was shared
Do you wish to see the version the author intended or the current version?
Current Version Intended Version
Current Version
Archived Version
Proposed Framework
Feature Extraction
Classifier
Example Features: - Tweet Content - Click Logs - Other Tweets - Shared Resource - Timemaps
Extra Slides
Archive Shortener Application
Estimating Shared Resources Loss in Social Media
Estimating Shared Resources Loss in Social Media
My Publications
• S. G. Ainsworth, A. Alsum, H. SalahEldeen, M. C. Weigle, and M. L. Nelson. How much of the web is archived? In Proceedings of the 11th annual international ACM/IEEE joint conference on Digital libraries, JCDL '11, pages 133{136, 2011.
• H. SalahEldeen and M. L. Nelson. Losing my revolution: How much social media content has been lost? Accepted in TPDL 2012
• H. SalahEldeen and M. L. Nelson. Losing my revolution: A year after the Egyptian revolution, 10% of the social media documentation is gone. http://ws-dl.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-02-11-losing-my-revolution-year.html.
References • D. Antoniades, I. Polakis, G. Kontaxis, E. Athanasopoulos, S. Ioannidis, E. P. Markatos, and T. Karagiannis. we.b: the web of short
urls. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, WWW '11, pages 715 {724, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.
• A. Ashkan, C. L. Clarke, E. Agichtein, and Q. Guo. Classifying and characterizing query intent. In Proceedings of the 31th European Conference on IR Research on Advances in Information Retrieval, ECIR '09, pages 578{586, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2009. Springer-Verlag.
• L. Azzopardi and M. de Rijke. Query intention acquisition: A case study on automatically inferring structured queries. In Proceedings DIR-2006, 2006.
• R. Baeza-Yates, L. Calderon-Benavides, and C. Gonzalez-Caro. The intention behind web queries. In F. Crestani, P. Ferragina, and M. Sanderson, editors, String Processing and Information Retrieval, volume 4209 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 98{109. Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2006. 10.1007/11880561 9.
• A. Benczur, I. Bro, K. Csalogany, and T. Sarlos. Web spam detection via commercial intent analysis. In Proceedings of the 3rd international workshop on Adversarial information retrieval on the web, AIRWeb '07, pages 89{92, New York, NY, USA, 2007. ACM.
• J. Bollen, H. Mao, and X.-J. Zeng. Twitter mood predicts the stock market. CoRR, abs/1010.3003, 2010.
• N. Dai, X. Qi, and B. D. Davison. Bridging link and query intent to enhance web search. In Proceedings of the 22nd ACM conference on Hypertext and hypermedia, HT '11, pages 17{26, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.
• N. Dai, X. Qi, and B. D. Davison. Enhancing web search with entity intent. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference companion on World wide web, WWW '11, pages 29{30, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.
• K. Durant and M. Smith. Predicting the political sentiment of web log posts using supervised machine learning techniques coupled with feature selection. In O. Nasraoui, M. Spiliopoulou, J. Srivastava, B. Mobasher, and B. Masand, editors, Advances in Web Mining and Web Usage Analysis, volume 4811 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 187{206. Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2007. 10.1007/978-3-540-77485-3 11.
References • Q. Guo and E. Agichtein. Ready to buy or just browsing?: detecting web searcher goals from interaction data. In Proceedings of the 33rd
international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and development in information retrieval, SIGIR '10, pages 130{137, New York, NY, USA, 2010. ACM.
• A. Java, X. Song, T. Finin, and B. Tseng. Why we twitter: understanding microblogging usage and communities. In Proceedings of the 9th WebKDD and 1st SNA-KDD 2007 workshop on Web mining and social network analysis, WebKDD/SNA-KDD '07, pages 56{65, New York, NY, USA, 2007. ACM.
• H. Kwak, C. Lee, H. Park, and S. Moon. What is twitter, a social network or a news media? In Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web, WWW '10, pages 591{600, New York, NY, USA, 2010. ACM.
• C.-H. L. Lee and A. Liu. Modeling the query intention with goals. In Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Advanced Information Networking and Applications - Volume 2, AINA '05, pages 535{540, Washington, DC, USA, 2005. IEEE Computer Society.
• A. Loser, W. M. Barczynski, and F. Brauer. What's the intention behind your query? a few observations from a large developer community. In IRSW, 2008.
• F. McCown, N. Diawara, and M. L. Nelson. Factors aecting website reconstruction from the web infrastructure. In JCDL '07: Proceedings of the 7th ACM/IEEE-CS Joint Conference on Digital Libraries, pages 39{48, 2007.
• B. Meeder, B. Karrer, A. Sayedi, R. Ravi, C. Borgs, and J. Chayes. We know who you followed last summer: inferring social link creation times in twitter. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, WWW '11, pages 517{526, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.
• G. Mishne. Predicting movie sales from blogger sentiment. In In AAAI 2006 Spring Symposium on Computational Approaches to Analysing Weblogs (AAAI-CAAW), 2006.
• M. L. Nelson and B. D. Allen. Object persistence and availability in digital libraries. D-Lib Magazine, 8(1), 2002.
• R. Sanderson, M. Phillips, and H. Van de Sompel. Analyzing the persistence of referenced web resources with memento. CoRR, abs/1105.3459, 2011.
• H. Van de Sompel, M. L. Nelson, R. Sanderson, L. Balakireva, S. Ainsworth, and H. Shankar. Memento: Time travel for the web. CoRR, abs/0911.1112, 2009.
• S. Wu, J. M. Hofman, W. A. Mason, and D. J. Watts. Who says what to whom on twitter. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, WWW '11, pages 705{714, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.
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