fruits of our labour
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Fruits of our Labour:Why the Philippines Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund and How to Go About
Establishing OneJanuary 2013
Emmanuel C. S. Santos1
Introduction
The Philippines is suffering from a rare form of “Dutch disease”, the negative consequences
of a rapid rise in income normally associated with the export of natural resources. In our
case, the income comes from our export of labour. Remittances from overseas Filipinos
keep rising every year swelling our foreign currency reserves. The peso appreciates as a
result. This diminishes the global competitiveness of our manufacturing and services sectors
with adverse implications for domestic employment.
Meanwhile government keeps borrowing from international markets to finance its chronic
budget deficits. This contributes to the upward pressure on the domestic currency as more
dollars flow in to purchase government securities. To keep its borrowing down and make
credit rating agencies happy, government constrains its spending. It wants to rely on public-
private partnerships (PPP) to provide infrastructure which are both time-consuming to
arrange and limited in scope.
As it postpones development spending credit rating upgrades keep coming. Each time this
happens, fund managers around the world increase the flow of “hot money” into the stock
market, thus contributing to more upward pressure on the peso. Property developers also
cash in as the value of residential and commercial assets appreciates with the rising peso,
which creates even more demand for new development.
The families that receive remittances on the other hand suffer as the purchasing power of
the dollar declines. And due to their dependence on these transfers, the income that families
receive goes mostly to household expenditures. Very little is invested in productive activity;
and when it is, the investment normally goes into retail or transport enterprises, which earn
very marginal returns.
For the rest of the population, finding a job is a struggle. Life is hard as there are not enough
opportunities that come by due to a dearth of fixed private capital expenditures on plant and
equipment let alone research and development. Most of the inflows go to short-term
investments, i.e. the stock market, or to fund property purchases, which results in very little job generation outside the construction industry which demands casual employment due to
the seasonality of its activity.
This in a nutshell is the problem that confounds the Philippines.
1The author is a principal policy officer working in the economic unit of the Department of Premier and
Cabinet, Government of South Australia. This paper first appeared as a series of posts on the ProPinoy blogsite.The views expressed in this paper are his own and do not reflect that of his employer. He can be contacted at
emmanuelcssantos@gmail.com.
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Analysis
In 2012, the World Bank projects official remittances to the Philippines to reach just over $24
billion2 (with the Asian Bankers Association estimating an amount of $27 billion as of the end
of October3). This would be just over the Bureau of Internal Revenue’s total tax collections
for 2011 and would have been enough to finance that year’s budget deficit close to five timesover4. This places the Philippines third, just after China and India (each projected to receive
about $65 billion each) and ahead of Mexico (just under $24 billion) in the league table of
remittance-driven economies (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Monthly remittances inflows (US$ millions)
Source: World Bank
On a monthly basis, the country’s foreign remittance inf lows went from about $600 million in
early 2003 to about $1.5 billion in early 2012. The latter is equal to the annual inflow of
foreign direct investments for 2012. In an economy of roughly PhP10 trillion, remittances
2Bellman, E. 22 November 2012. Wall Street Journal.19 January 2013
http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/11/22/philippines-set-to-edge-mexico-for-remittance-olympics-
bronze/. 3Vallecera, Jun. 17 December 2012 “Remittances jump 8.2% to $27.24B.” Business Mirror.19 January 2013
http://businessmirror.com.ph/index.php/news/top-news/5713-remittances-jump-8-2-to-27-24b/. 4“National government full year 2011 fiscal deficit at 2% of GDP.”Bureau of the Treasury 19 January 2013.
http://www.treasury.gov.ph/news/news/Fiscal%20Report-1211.pdf/.
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contribute about 10% of GDP. Given the multiplier effect that this income creates, it would be
fair to say that remittances contribute about a fifth of the economy.
Unlike Mexico, which is dependent on its northern neighbour the United States for providing
a market for its labour, the Philippine work force has its eggs in many baskets, not only in
different countries, but many occupations, both high- and low-skilled. This made it moreresilient to harsh economic conditions demonstrated by the fact that as the Great Recession
unfolded in the US from September 2008, the growth in remittances to Mexico hit a ceiling,
while that of the Philippines maintained its upward trajectory catching up with its North
American counterpart towards the end of 2011.
As of December 2012, the country’s gross inter national reserves (GIR) stood at $84 billion
exceeding the full year estimate of the BangkoSentral (BSP) of $78 billion5.This was enough
to cover our imports for a full year or to settle all short-term debt obligations 12 times based
on original maturity and 5.7 times based on residual maturity (that is short-term loans based
on original maturity plus principal payments on medium- and long-term loans of both private
and public sectors falling due in the next 12 months).
The GIR of the Philippines is also about 72 per cent larger than the total official reserve
assets of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was at US$49 billion at the end of December
20126. It is worth asking, what is an economy the size of the Philippines which produces
about $250 billion a year doing with reserves of that amount compared to the resource
exporting Australian economy which is about $ 1 trillion a year ? Do we need to maintain
such a high level of reserves relative to our economy ?
Back in September 2012 when the GIR stood at $82 billion, the country’s external debts
belonging to both the public and private sectors stood at $61.7 billion. That means the BSP
had enough to settle all external obligations and still have roughly $20 billion left over.
The next two charts show what has happened over the past decade to the finances of the
nation. Figure 2 shows that after a rocky start when the balance of payments (BoP)
fluctuated between surplus and deficit territory from 2000-05, the country has been
producing consistent BoP surpluses averaging about 3.8 per cent of GDP from 2005-11.
A quick rule of thumb is that 1 per cent of GDP is roughly Php100 billion. So on average, the
annual BoP surplus has been about Php380 billion during the past six years. The average
BoP surplus is therefore more than enough to accommodate government’s annual revenue
shortfall which has averaged 2 per cent of GDP per year.
Figure 3 shows the effect these surpluses have had on our GIR. From 2001 to 2011, GIR
have grown on average by 16.7 per cent per annum. Up until 2005, the levels were pretty
flat. Afterwards they rise steeply. This means that a tipping point in the structure of payments
has been reached which has placed our BoP structurally in surplus territory.
No wonder bond markets have had such confidence in the Philippines. As the saying in
business goes, banks will only offer you credit when you don’t need it. The question is do we
5“Gross international reserves.”BangkoSentralngPilipinas. 19 January 2013.
http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sdds/table12.htm/. 6“Official reserve assets.”9 January 2013. Reserve Bank of Australia. 19 January 2013.
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/reserve-assets.html/.
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just keep accumulating these reserves knowing the problems they create for our economy ?
Or do we actually put the excess funds to good use by investing in the country’s
development ?
Figure 2: Surpluses and Deficits, per cent of GDP
Sources: IMF (Balance of Payments) and calculations using BSP figures (Government net
borrowings/lending)
Figure 3: Gross International Reserves (in $millions)
* projected as of November
Source: BSP
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Finally, Figure 4 shows what has happened to the net savings of the Philippines over the
past two decades. From 1989 to 1998, the annual investment rate averaged about 25 per
cent of GDP, while the annual saving rate averaged about 18 per cent, resulting in an annual
net savings of about -7.2 per cent. From 1998 to 2003, the country went through a number of
crises including the Asian flu and a series of uprisings. It came out of this period with the
relationship between investments and savings reversed. From 2003 onwards, the averageannual saving rate (23 per cent of GDP) exceeded the annual investment rate (19.9 per
cent) by about 3.2 per cent of GDP a year.
This is as much due to the drop in the investment rate, as much as it is a rise in savings.
Due to this structural change, the country has become a net saving country since 2003. The
country now suffers not from a lack of capital accumulation, but from a lack of investor
appetite. Despite efforts to raise the competitiveness of the country or to generate
investments through public-private partnerships, the investment rate remains stubbornly low.
We could characterise the country as being stuck in a developmental trap where the only
way to make it more competitive is to improve the productivity of its labour force. The
primary way to do that is through capital deepening. But without a sufficient level of capital
being invested, productivity declines relative to other countries where investments flow. The
nation’s inability to raise productivity deters future investors, and on it goes.
Something has to break the cycle, and this will not occur by simply relying on the “Invisible
Hand of the market”, as private players suffer from the free rider problem—waiting for the
first mover to take action before joining in. It will take some coordinated effort by
government; but given its chronic deficits, it needs to find a new way to jump-start productive
investments.
Figure 4: Net Savings
Source: Asian Development Bank
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Recommendation
As the title of the paper suggests, we should set up a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with our
excess reserves. The $20 billion mentioned above could be the seed money. That is enough
to double our infrastructure spending which is currently at 1.5 per cent of GDP every year to
3 per cent, much closer to the recommended 5 per cent, over the next five years. With thatadded spending, the government could easily meet its aspirational stretch target of growing
the economy by 7-8 per cent a year.
Or alternatively, each year, depending on how well our BoP and GIR perform, the
government could just borrow from the BSP to fund its deficits and the SWF. Assuming that
the government’s new revenue measures and fiscal consolidation program reduce its annual
deficit to about 1 per cent of GDP, and that the annual BoP surplus remains at 3.8 per cent
of GDP, there would be enough to fund government’s deficit and set aside another 1 .5 per
cent for the SWF, with the remaining 1 per cent going to GIR.
What is a SWF ?
Let us first define what an SWF is. According to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, it is
a state-owned investment fund or entity that is commonly established from
balance of payments surpluses, official foreign currency operations, the
proceeds of privatisations, governmental transfer payments, fiscal surpluses,
and/or receipts from resource exports 7.
The Institute cites some “interesting facts” about SWFs, namely that some of them “invest
indirectly in domestic industries” and that “they tend to prefer returns over liquidity, thus they
have a higher risk tolerance than traditional foreign exchange reserves. SWFs often receivetheir initial capital through “commodity exports, either taxed or owned by the government” or
through “transfers of assets from official foreign exchange reserves”.
There are about US$5.1 trillion invested in SWFs globally. About three of every five dollars
come from oil and gas exports, the remainder from other sources. The size of funds varies
from as little as US$300 million for Indonesia to as large as US$664 billion for Norway. Of
the 64 SWFs that currently exist, 39 were established since 20008.
How could a SWF be established?
Some have argued that the BSP is restricted by its charter, RA 7653, the Central Bank Act
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,from investing in instruments other than triple-A rated bonds of foreign governments. At the
time this law was passed, the problem facing the country was chronic BoP deficits. More
transfers out rather than in were being made.
The BSP is tasked under the law with maintaining international monetary stability in the
country. Part of this according to Article II, Section 64 of the law is “to preserve the
7“What is a SWF?” SWF Institute. 19 January 2013 <http://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund/>.
8 “Sovereign wealth fund rankings.” SWF Institute. 19 January 2013 <http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-
rankings/>.9“Republic Act No. 7653.”The LawPhil Project.19 January 2013
http://www.lawphil.net/statutes/repacts/ra1993/ra_7653_1993.html/ .
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international value of the peso and to maintain its convertibility into other freely convertible
currencies”.
To maintain such stability, Section 65 says that “the Bangko Sentral shall maintain
international reserves adequate to meet any foreseeable net demands on the Bangko
Sentral for foreign currencies”. It would have to judge for itself the adequacy of thesereserves based on “prospective receipts and payments of foreign exchange by the
Philippines”.
Finally, Section 66 lays out the composition of such reserves which it says “may include but
shall not be limited to” gold and other assets that took the form of “documents and
instruments customarily employed for the international transfer of funds; demand and time
deposits in central banks, treasuries and commercial banks abroad; foreign government
securities; and foreign notes and coins”.
Back in September 2011, the central bank governor reportedly offered to purchase
Philippine treasury using its dollar reserves. Although these notes are not triple-A rated, hehad probably realised back then that the BSP already had an adequate supply of reserves to
meet international obligations.
Given that the law says nothing about what to do if the BSP were to have more than a
sufficient level of reserves we can say that the BSP is sailing in unchartered waters. If the
law does not specify what it should do in such a situation, then it should be left to the
discretion of its board to decide how best to deal with it.
To eliminate any doubt, however, and to lay the legal basis for a SWF, existing legislation
should be amended so that the BSP is allowed to transfer funds to the national government
via the purchase of government bonds, the proceeds of which would go to the nationaltreasury and then to the SWF. That should be the prescribed method for transferring funds.
Currently, the return on short-term US treasury notes is between 0 and 0.25 per cent,
negative in real terms, meaning that the BSP is paying the US government to borrow from its
reserves. And the US Federal Reserve has said that it plans to keep interest rates as low as
they are for the foreseeable future until the US unemployment rate goes under 6.5 per cent10
(it is currently at 7.8 per cent). If the BSP lent its excess reserves to the Philippine
government, it would gain a better return and preserve the value of its assets.
What would be the purpose of a Philippine SWF?
The nature and purpose of SWFs are varied, but in the Philippines it might be to do the
following (as adapted from the SWF Institute):
Protect and stabilise the budget and economy from excess volatility in
revenues/exports
Diversify our industry sector to make growth more inclusive and robust
Earn greater returns than on foreign exchange reserves
Assist monetary authorities dissipate unwanted liquidity
Increase savings for future generations
10 “The Fed’s big policy move: what it means.” 12 December 2012. CBS News. 19 January 2013
<http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57558793/the-feds-big-policy-move-what-it-means/ >.
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Fund social and economic development.
Given the need to boost productivity and improve competitiveness, addressing the
infrastructure backlog would be the most obvious place to start. The PPP projects would be
a good initial source of demand for funding as these projects are designed to earn a market
rate of return for the investor. Another possibility would be for the SWF to enter into joint-ventures with mining firms for the exploration and production of oil and other commodities.
This would ensure that we received a larger share of the benefits from such operations.
A third possibility would be to fund innovation through government procurement, business
incubators, industry clusters, and competitions aimed at the commercialisation of ideas.
Government could serve as a catalyst in the germination of new activity around key areas of
specialisation that the country has already exhibited proficiencies in. The expansion of our
semiconductor and electronics industry into higher value adding activities could be one
priority. The growth of agribusinesses into higher yield crops and value-adding processes
could be another. A fourth priority could be the generation of clean technology and
renewable energy.
How could a SWF be governed and managed?
The Santiago Principles established by 26 countries with SWFs known as the International
Working Group or IWG in 2008 lays out a number of generally accepted principles and
practices or GAPP to ensure that “the SWF arrangements are properly set up and
investments are made on an economic and financial basis”11. One of the main reasons for
this is that as government-owned entities, as SWFs continue to grow in importance to global
capital markets and perform a bigger role in corporate governance, they need to
demonstrate that their investment decisions are not politically motivated.
Traditionally, SWFs took the surplus foreign reserves accumulated within a resource
exporting nation and invested them in long-term projects overseas. This allowed recipient
countries that were often capital constrained and developing to benefit from such investment
flows. The size and relative lack of transparency of some SWFs however caused many
actors in the international community to cast a suspicious eye at these funds.
In the Philippine context, as discussed above, the SWF would be confined to funding
projects within the country given our chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and need to
resuscitate our industrial sector. Given however our historically poor track record at ensuring
that government owned and controlled companies manage their assets in a prudent manner,the main concern in establishing a SWF would be to ring-fence it from the arbitrary and
extractive influence of politics.
The Santiago Principles help to define a set of best practices for us in establishing our own
SWF in the Philippines. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace talked about what
the effect of signing up to these principles is by saying that
(b)y voluntarily submitting to the Santiago Principles, IWG members ceded
their autonomy to establish governance arrangements in line with their
11“Generally accepted principles and practices – The Santiago Principles.”International Working Group of
Sovereign Wealth Funds. 19 January 2013 <http://www.iwg-swf.org/pubs/gapplist.htm/>.
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individual needs and preferences. In a way, they made a conscious decision to
limit the reach of their “sovereignty” 12.
One might be tempted after reading that to draw an analogy between the IWG to the World
Trading Organisation or WTO which implements the General Agreement on Trade and
Tariffs or GATT. Unlike that body, the IWG and its successor the International Forum ofSovereign Wealth Funds or IFSWF is purely voluntary and has no powers to sanction its
members. The Carnegie Endowment does draw this distinction. What our Philippine
authorities should do in drawing up the framework for its SWF would be to hard code “the
Principles” into its charter.
As shown in the table below, the Principles may be divided into three distinct parts. These
cover the legal and macroeconomic policy framework of the fund, its institutional and
governance arrangements and structures, and finally its methods for managing investment
decisions and handling risk. I am adapting the Carnegie Endowment’s description of these
parts here.
The policy aims of setting a SWF in the Philippines are clear: to channel excess foreign
reserves in a productive way and to cope with the developmental needs of the country. The
GIR should only be allowed to rise in proportion to external commitments. As the economy
becomes less dependent on foreign borrowing, these external debts will not rise as rapidly
as they have in the past.
Once targeted levels of GIR have been reached, the BSP should be authorised to declare
any additional funds in excess of its requirements. The existing Central Bank Act should be
amended to explicitly state this. The monetary board should be given the task of setting the
appropriate benchmarks for making such declarations and for transferring excess funds to
the SWF via the national bureau of treasury.
The nature of such a transfer, as suggested, should be in the form of a sovereign loan
issued to the national government, which will own the SWF. The SWF must in turn invest in
projects that will have a sufficient return to cover its borrowing and operating costs. This
arrangement would ensure that the value of the BSP ’s assets is preserved.
As to the appointment of its board and officers, the SWF would be subject to the same rules
covering government owned and controlled corporations or GOCCs. The reforms carried out
under the new GOCC law which created a commission to regulate the appointments,
compensation and accountabilities of such officers would apply as well. This would includethe need to provide audited financial statements and management reports and submit to
congressional oversight13.
In terms of the type of projects it would fund, I have suggested four potential areas or
themes. This includes public infrastructure (such as the ones eyed for PPP) aimed at both
social and economic development, joint minerals exploration in partnership or consortium
12Behrendt, S. “Sovereign wealth funds and the Santiago Principles – Where do they stand?” Carnegie Papers
No. 22, May 2010. Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. 19 January 2013
<http://carnegieendowment.org/files/santiago_principles.pdf/>.13 “Republic Act No. 10149.” Official Gazette, Office of the President. 19 January 2013
<http://www.gov.ph/2011/06/06/republic-act-no-10149/ >.
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with private mining firms, innovation and industry cluster development projects, and clean,
renewable energy projects.
Table 1: Santiago Principles
Section What “the Principles” state there should be GAPP #
Legalframework,objectives, andcoordination withmacroeconomicpolicies
disclosure of legal framework definition and disclosure of policy purpose public disclosure of funding and withdrawal
arrangements
GAPP 1GAPP 2
GAPP 4
Institutionalframework andgovernancestructures
clearly defined roles and responsibilities of theprincipal/owner (the government) and the agent(SWF’s governing body, officers and executives)
a limited role for the principal which is to set the broadobjectives, appointment of governing body or board,
and oversight of operations a clear mandate to the fund’s governing body to set
strategy for achieving its objectives along with beingaccountable for its performance
delegated authority for independently implementingstrategies and handling operations for officers andexecutives under clearly defined roles andresponsibilities
GAPP 6
GAPP 7
GAPP 8
GAPP 9
Investment andriskmanagement
frameworks
disclosure of investment policies information about investment themes, investment
objectives and horizons, and strategic asset
allocation, including:o disclosure of investments that are subject to
non-economic and non-financialconsiderations
o whether they execute ownership rights toprotect the financial value of investments
a framework that identifies, assesses, and managesthe risks of its operations and measures to trackinvestment performance employing relative and/orabsolute benchmarks
GAPP 18
GAPP 19.1
GAPP 21
GAPP 22
*adapted from Behrendt, S. (May 2010). Sovereign Wealth Funds and Santiago Principles: Where do
they stand? Carnegie Papers No. 22, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The allocation of resources across these themes could be based on national priorities. To be
clear, one of the main aims of this SWF would be to support the development priorities of the
nation, and that should be stated unapologetically. But for specific projects, a set of solid
business cases needs to be presented. When entering into joint ventures or consortia with
private players, the SWF should also be allowed to exercise ownership rights over the
project to protect its investments.
Just as with government financial institutions, the SWF should be guided by proper
prudential principles and practices that would manage its risk exposure; but unlike the
conservative treasury management practices of government banks and pension funds, therisk-return equation is different for an equity investor like the SWF. The risk tolerance would
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be higher while its returns need not necessarily be as large given its lower cost of borrowing.
Its risk adjusted return on capital would thus be lower compared to commercial banks.
Some PPP bidders have expressed concern over political interference in the Philippines
affecting their ability to set rates for services independently of the government. This has
limited their appetite for managing and operating the utilities and transport oriented projectsunder PPP. They have therefore chosen to participate only in building the infrastructure.
Takashi Ishagami of Marubeni Corporation has been quoted as saying that “the Filipino PPP
is far away from our standard”14. It has partnered with a local firm to jointly bid for a $1 billion
railway project in which it would be merely supplying equipment.
If the SWF were to finance such projects with foreign partners, a portion of the excess
foreign reserves would leak out of the country (as intended) through the purchase of foreign
equipment. This will help temper the peso’s rise since these projects will no longer be
financed through overseas assistance or equity from abroad. What could leak in, however, is
foreign technology and know-how because as an equity investor, with a long time frame, the
SWF would also have greater leverage to request that suppliers provide technology transfer
to local partners. This should unapologetically be part of its investment prioritisation
framework.
Conclusion
Under President Benigno “Noynoy” S. Aquino III’s rubric of good governance, the stage is
now set for him to pursue an economic model for the country that was espoused by his late
father, the ex-senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino, Jr. In a speech delivered in Los Angeles back
in 1981,the exiled pro-democracy advocate articulated a policy of coordinated investment to
overcome development bottlenecks15. As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
found, sound democratic institutions best explain a nation’s compliance with the Santiago
Principles.
With the government now facing the prospect of receiving investment grade status in the
coming year16, it must prepare for any unintended adverse consequences this might have as
more short-term investors flock to the domestic capital market boosting the peso’s value and
putting more of an already unbearable strain on exporters of goods and services. This has
been the impact of previous credit upgrades. This will have perverse consequences for
employment and overall competitiveness.
For good governance to yield economic benefits for the people, it needs to be used toaddress the developmental challenges facing the nation. This presents policy makers with a
once in a generation opportunity to get things right. Setting up a SWF would be the most
appropriate way to free the country from its developmental trap, and it offers the Filipino
people the single best hope of collectively deriving benefit from the fruits of our labour.
14Francisco, R and S. Grudgings. 18 December 2012. “The booming Philippines missing link – foreign
investors.”Reuters. 19 January 2013 <http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/us-philippines-investment-
idUSBRE8BI01B20121219/>.15
Robles, Raissa. 21 August 2011. “Democracy, according to Ninoy Aquino.”Inside Philippine Politics and
Beyond. 19 January <http://raissarobles.com/2011/08/21/democracy-according-to-ninoy-aquino/>.16Remo, Michelle. 30 October 2012. “Philippines gets credit upgrade from Moody’s”. The Philippine Daily
Inquirer. 19 January 2013 <http://business.inquirer.net/89980/moodys-upgrades-ph-credit-rating/>.
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