2013 climate change connections to our weather, environment, and health

Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu Lisa Gardiner, lisagard@ucar.edu Welcome!

Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013

Climate Change Connections to our Weather,

Environment, & Health

What do you know and want to know & learn

about climate change? A review of our KWL Chart,

Climate Survey

•  To address your needs •  To foster confidence •  To present meaningful classroom-ready activities •  To foster helpful discussions •  To have fun and learn from one another

Our Goals for Today

What are UCAR and NCAR?

Today’s Agenda

Part 1: The Earth System; Energy Atmosphere

Lithosphere

Cryosphere Hydrosphere

The Nature of the Sun’s Energy

Meet the Photon Folks

Absorption, Reflection ,Transmission

Source:

Living with a Star, NASA

Our Atmospheric Filter

Wave Demo Activity

More than your Eyes can See Source: NASA, Spitzer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2--0q0XlQJ0

The Keeling Curve --increasing CO2 levels leading to an

enhanced Greenhouse Effect

2006 Ozone Hole

Feeling the Heat Students learn about the urban heat island effect by investigating which areas of their schoolyard have higher temperatures. Then they analyze data about how the number of heat waves in an urban area has increased over time with population.

NYC, 8/14/02: Temp and vegetation Pg. 19

Pg. 9

Feeling the Heat, Part 1 Students investigate how trees, grass, asphalt, etc. affect temperature

Coolest

Warm

Feeling the Heat, Part 2: Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los Angeles, CA Stand in a group of 10 along the rope. Each person takes one

LA Data Card. The Objective: Order yourselves by the data on the card

keeping at least one foot on the rope at all times as you move past each other to get in order.

1.  Order yourselves by average temperature. 2.  Order yourselves by the number of heat waves.** 3.  Order yourselves by population.

(**Note: there are two decades that have the same number of heat waves. The people with those cards can stand next to each other in any order.)

Reasons for patterns

The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part of a city. That’s the urban heat island effect.

The next 3 slides show how LA has changed over time. How do you think the heat island effect has changed as the city changed?

Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))

Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)

Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 satellite image mosaic. Topography is exaggerated one and one-half times. (Courtesy of NASA/JPL)

This graph shows the number of heat waves in Los Angeles, CA over the past century. Do you see a pattern? How have heat waves changed through time?

(From Tamrazian et al., 2008)

Looking for patterns

This graph shows the duration of heat waves in Los Angeles, CA (measured in days.) Has there been a change through time?

(From Tamrazian et al., 2008)

Looking for patterns

How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pattern?

Cou

rtesy

of N

OA

A/N

WS

Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming. This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.

System for Integrated Modeling of Metropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER)

NCAR scientists are building a tool for public health to use to assess the risk of extreme heat in Houston.

•  Looking at the impact of urban extreme heat on human health

•  Characterizing people’s vulnerability and the responses to heat

•  Improving how urban land cover appears in GIS maps at local and regional scales

•  Modeling present and future extreme heat events

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/simmer/

Part II: Weather vs Climate

High and low temperatures Houston, TX

July 1-20, 2013

Weather & Climate Graphing Pg. 37

Houston, TX

Weather & Weather in the News Pg. 19

Get the Picture? Activity Pg. 23

Heat waves are increasing: an example

Is it global warming, or is it natural variability? These are not the right questions: it is a combination of both.

Source: Jim Hurrell, NCAR

Part III: Climate Now, Cycles

The Nitrogen Cycle Game pg. 41

The Carbon Journey pg. 49, Source: NOAA

150 0.045±0.012 100 0.074±0.018 50 0.128±0.026 25 0.177±0.052

Period Rate

Years °/decade Trenberth

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

Warmest 12 years: 2005,2010,1998,2003,2002,2006, 2009,2007,2004,2001,2011,2008

The “Other” CO2 Problem

CO2 How Much Do You Spew? Pg. 63

CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions: •  Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual. •  Families/individuals live in different situations & use energy in different ways. •  Students use the worksheet to calculate a household’s CO2 emissions.

Sample card

CO2: How Much Do You Spew?

Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew

1.  What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined? 2.  Could those activities be changed to emit less CO2? How? 3.  How would you change your scenario to reduce CO2?

Photo by Water Partners International

What are basic human needs?

Select items to purchase with your global dollars using the Choices and impacts worksheet

An activity by Facing the Future, www.facingthefuture.org

Glaciers Then and Now, Muir Glacier (Pg. 85)

Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

1941

2004

Photos courtesy of NSIDC

Visible Impacts

1906

2004

Photos courtesy of USGS Carroll Glacier

Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Model a Moving Glacier: Glacier a Go-Go Adapted by an activity by Leigh Sterns, University of Maine

The objective of this lesson is to teach middle and high school students about variables that affect glacier flow over time:

- valley slope - ice temperature - basal conditions (ground surface) - strain

Pg. 91

Variables to Study

PVC pipe lined with aluminum foil and lubricated with oil

Lubricated Bed

PVC pipe Normal Bed

PVC pipe lined with sandpaper Rough Bed

Basal Conditions

65° Steep

45° Medium

25° Shallow

Valley Slope

Flubber microwaved until hot to touch

Warm Ice (pink flubber)

Flubber at room temperature

Normal Ice (white flubber)

Flubber placed in the freezer prior to class

Cold Ice (blue flubber)

Ice Temperature

PVC pipe

flubber vertical toothpicks

Time 1:

Time 2:

Strain Grid

Lab Setup basic setup

advanced setup

Source: Leigh Sterns, University of Maine

“Flubber” Recipe

1.  Decide on one of the variables to study.

2.  Make a hypothesis (e.g. the steeper the slope, the faster the flow rate of a glacier.)

3.  Test your hypothesis and record and graph your results.

4.  Discuss results and how flubber is like and unlike a glacier.

food coloring (optional)

½ cup warm water 1 cup white glue (ex. Elmer’s)

2 tsp. of Borax ¾ cup warm water

Mix #2 Mix #1

2012 record minimum: 3.41 mil sq km

2007 record minimum: 4.13 million square km

Currently loosing Arctic Sea Ice at a rate of 11% per decade

Why Does Albedo Matter?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoBTuYium6w

Model Projections of Future Arctic Summer Sea Ice Minimums

Under Business as Usual Future http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml

Hurricanes and Climate Pg. 97

Students investigate maps and data to learn about the connections between hurricanes and climate including:

(1) regional climate conditions where hurricanes form, and

(2) how global climate change may be affecting hurricanes.

Courtesy of Kevin Trenberth

Where do hurricanes happen?

The map shows the paths of all tropical cyclones that occurred between 1985 and 2005. (Wikipedia commons)

Hurricanes happen where water is warm

Temperature of the ocean surface (“sea surface temperature” or SST). Data from GOES and POES satellites. (NOAA)

Warm water gives a hurricane power… To grow in strength, a

hurricane needs: •  Warm, moist air (moisture

for rainstorms) •  Winds that don't change

direction with height •  Deep, warm ocean water

(79°F or warmer)…As winds strengthen, more water evaporates, releasing energy stored in the warm seas.

Is global warming affecting hurricanes?

Data from Webster et al (2005) Science, 309, 1844-46.

Not much change in the number of hurricanes over time.

Strong hurricanes are more frequent now than they were a few decades ago.

From Webster et al (2005)

Large Increase in Number of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes

A Conversation: Climate & Human Health

Section 5: Social and Political Connections

For more info: https://spark.ucar.edu/longcontent/climate-change-and-vector-borne-disease

A Conversation: Climate Communication

.

Since 2010 Great Strides

What led to acceptance of climate change? •  Hurricane Sandy •  Increasing media coverage affirming climate change •  Midwest drought, summer 2012 •  Texas drought 2011; Fires across southwest & west •  All around increase in severe weather events •  Arctic sea ice retreat •  2012 hottest year on record in continental US…

Comment from a Teacher “There was one parent who said he had a PhD in

entomology and said that he thinks global climate change is false. If I decided to teach this information to the students, he would come into the classroom and dispute it all in front of me. Instead of doing this, the school administration just suggested that I not teach the information. I really found it to be a shame because it's something that is often found in the media that many students are interested in and want to learn more about. I don't want to tell them one way or another, but they need to know the facts from both sides without bias.” Source: NESTA

Comment from Respondent “There was one parent who said he had a PhD in

entomology and said that he thinks global climate change is false. If I decided to teach this information to the students, he would come into the classroom and dispute it all in front of me. Instead of doing this, the school administration just suggested that I not teach the information. I really found it to be a shame because it's something that is often found in the media that many students are interested in and want to learn more about. I don't want to tell them one way or another, but they need to know the facts from both sides without bias.” Source: NESTA

“I teach in a very conservative area and many of my high school students say things to me like, "My parents don't believe in global warming”

Source: NESTA

- NESTA teacher

Whose Side Are You On?

Climate Change 101 TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS

It is real NOW

It is BAD for us

It is HUMAN-CAUSED

We can SOLVE IT if we choose to

Climate SCIENTISTS AGREE that it’s happening

This is what the scientific evidence supports

Frame and Build Trust

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q4OHQJ0_gQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlQc9Kj15NM&list=PLB191F5DA17C6E638

Frame and Build Trust Repower America Ad

From Istockphoto.com

S O L U T I O N S

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

www.ipcc.ch

5th Assessment Report coming soon!

IPCC Future Scenarios

http://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/IPCC_CCSM3/

Imagine A World: 2100 Pg.112

Summary for Educators coming soon!

Stabilization Wedges Game

2 2 = 4 billion tons go out

Ocean Land Biosphere (net)

Fossil Fuel Burning

+

8

800 billion tons carbon

4

billion tons go in

ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Historical Emissions

1.6

Interim Goal

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions Flat path

Stabilization Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

The Stabilization Triangle

1.6

Interim Goal

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions Flat path

Stabilization Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

The Stabilization Triangle

~850 ppm

Easier CO2 target

1.6

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historical emissions Flat path

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Stabilization Wedges

16 GtC/y

Eight “wedges”

Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today

What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

1 GtC/yr

50 years

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)

CO2 Capture & Storage (3)

Stabilization Triangle

Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4)

Forest and Soil Storage (2)

Fuel Switching (1)

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Nuclear Fission (1)

2007 2057 8 GtC/y

16 GtC/y

Triangle Stabilization

http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/pdfs/teachers_guide.pdf

You can find more info about each of the 15 wedge areas in the teacher guide online.

#1: Who might support these scenarios of ways to reduce?

•  auto efficiency •  conservation in transportation •  building efficiency •  electricity efficiency •  fuel switching electrics (natural gas vs coal) •  forest storage •  soil storage •  nuclear

Possibly a taxpayer?

Who?

•  CO2 Storage electricity •  fuel switching electricity (natural gas for coal) •  fuel switching electricity •  nuclear •  forest storage •  soil storage •  Increased efficiency electricity plants •  wind electricity

A possible fossil fuel exec. ?

Who? •  efficiency transport •  conservation transport efficiency •  efficiency buildings •  efficiency electricity •  wind •  solar •  forest storage •  forest storage

A possible environmentalist choice?

Who?

•  - fuel switching electricity •  - fuel switching electricity •  - fuel switching electricity •  - efficiency transport •  - efficiency transport •  - efficiency transport •  - carbon Storage electricity •  - efficiency buildings

A likely U.S. choice? – Many of these scenarios have been initiated or implemented.

Take Home Messages from Activity •  In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we

need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks

•  We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions

•  No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling

•  Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

Thank you for joining us today. Help us continually improve this workshop by completing your

survey before you leave.

Teri Eastburn eastburn@ucar.edu

Lisa Gardiner lisagard@ucar.edu

Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013