American Government American Government and Politics Today and Politics Today

Chapter 6Chapter 6

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

Defining Public OpinionDefining Public Opinion

Public opinion is defined as Public opinion is defined as what the public thinks about what the public thinks about a particular set of issues at a particular set of issues at any point in time.any point in time.

Consensus: People (for the Consensus: People (for the most part) agree on an issue.most part) agree on an issue.

Divisive Opinion: People do Divisive Opinion: People do not agree. not agree.

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization The process by which personal and other The process by which personal and other

background traits influence one’s views about background traits influence one’s views about politics.politics.

Sources of Political SocializationSources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social EnvironmentThe Family and the Social Environment

Traced through two factors:Traced through two factors: Communication- what is saidCommunication- what is said Receptivity- tied to parental approval Receptivity- tied to parental approval A study conducted of high school A study conducted of high school

seniors found that 91% knew their seniors found that 91% knew their parents presidential preference, 71% parents presidential preference, 71% knew party affiliation and 9% opposed knew party affiliation and 9% opposed their parents.their parents.

By the age 11, over 50% of school By the age 11, over 50% of school children have identified with a partychildren have identified with a party

Political Socialization Cont’dPolitical Socialization Cont’d

Education as a Source of Education as a Source of Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

Pledge of Allegiance, mock Pledge of Allegiance, mock elections, patriotic education. elections, patriotic education.

Forms the most in Elementary Forms the most in Elementary SchoolSchool

Peers and Peer Group Influence Peers and Peer Group Influence What your friends think. Most What your friends think. Most

significant influence in middle and significant influence in middle and high school years.high school years.

Media Presentation of PoliticalMedia Presentation of Political IssuesIssues

Political Socialization (cont.)Political Socialization (cont.)

When events from a time When events from a time period influence people period influence people from that period it is from that period it is called the called the generational generational effecteffect, or a cohort effect., or a cohort effect.

EX. Great Depression, JFK EX. Great Depression, JFK assassination, Oil Embargo assassination, Oil Embargo

Mass MediaMass Media

Collection of all methods of Collection of all methods of communicationcommunication The average American adult The average American adult

spends 30 hours a week in front of spends 30 hours a week in front of a TV. a TV.

Press release, radio, internet, TV, Press release, radio, internet, TV, newspaper, magazines, mail, etcnewspaper, magazines, mail, etc

Political Preferences and Political Preferences and Voting BehaviorVoting Behavior

Demographic InfluencesDemographic Influences EducationEducation Economic StatusEconomic Status

Typically: wealthy want less gov’t Typically: wealthy want less gov’t involvement, poorer want more gov’t involvement, poorer want more gov’t involvementinvolvement

Religious Influence: DenominationReligious Influence: Denomination Catholics and protestant=repCatholics and protestant=rep Jews=liberalJews=liberal

Religious Influence: CommitmentReligious Influence: Commitment The more you actively practice the The more you actively practice the

rigid the voting linerigid the voting line Race and EthnicityRace and Ethnicity

Minorities tend to lean liberalMinorities tend to lean liberal GenderGender

Women tend to lean liberalWomen tend to lean liberal GeographyGeography

Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinion

The History of Opinion PollsThe History of Opinion Polls 1800s: Straw Polls1800s: Straw Polls

Not scientifically basedNot scientifically based George Gallup is considered George Gallup is considered

the father of modern polling the father of modern polling (Gallup Poll). He argued that (Gallup Poll). He argued that the publics opinion helps the publics opinion helps “speed up the process of “speed up the process of Democracy.”Democracy.”

Measuring Public Opinion Measuring Public Opinion (cont.)(cont.)

Sampling TechniquesSampling Techniques Representative SamplingRepresentative Sampling

The sample group has to be large enough to The sample group has to be large enough to represent the voting public.represent the voting public.

The Principle of RandomnessThe Principle of Randomness The theory that any person has an equal chance The theory that any person has an equal chance

of being interviewed.of being interviewed. A truly random poll can never be achieved because A truly random poll can never be achieved because

there is no list of every person. Often times “random there is no list of every person. Often times “random samples” target a certain group of people.samples” target a certain group of people.

Tracking PollsTracking Polls Taken on a daily basis, allows Taken on a daily basis, allows

candidates to monitor public opinion candidates to monitor public opinion on a short term basis. Usually taken on a short term basis. Usually taken of small groups of registered votersof small groups of registered voters

Exit PollsExit Polls Taken after voters cast their vote. Taken after voters cast their vote.

Every tenth person is asked to allow Every tenth person is asked to allow the media to predict a possible the media to predict a possible winner.winner.

Problems with PollsProblems with Polls

Sampling Errors A.K.A margin of Sampling Errors A.K.A margin of ErrorError The difference between a sample’s The difference between a sample’s

results and the true result if the entire results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. population had been interviewed.

The average, acceptable margin of The average, acceptable margin of error for a sample group of 1500 is error for a sample group of 1500 is about 3 percent.about 3 percent.

Problems With Polls (cont.)Problems With Polls (cont.)

Poll Questions Poll Questions Answers will depend on the type of Answers will depend on the type of

question asked. question asked. Yes and no questions often leave out Yes and no questions often leave out

the ability to express their true opinionthe ability to express their true opinion Push Polls Push Polls

Attempts to spread negative or Attempts to spread negative or untruthful information or statements untruthful information or statements about a candidate by posing as a about a candidate by posing as a polltaker. Often, results are not even polltaker. Often, results are not even recorded, it just paints a picture of a recorded, it just paints a picture of a candidate that is extremely negative. candidate that is extremely negative.

Technology and Opinion PollsTechnology and Opinion Polls

The Advent of The Advent of Telephone PollingTelephone Polling

Far easier and less Far easier and less expensive than door-expensive than door-to-door polling, and to-door polling, and has become standard.has become standard.

Too many entities are Too many entities are conducting conducting ““pollspolls”” and and ““market research.market research.””

Nonresponse Rates Nonresponse Rates Have SkyrocketedHave Skyrocketed

Time of day, day of the Time of day, day of the week, area called…all week, area called…all problems of phone pollingproblems of phone polling