American Government American Government and Organizationand Organization

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Tuesday, 5 OctoberTuesday, 5 October

AnnouncementsAnnouncements

Dates to remember:Dates to remember: Vice Presidential Debate is tonight at 8pm. Vice Presidential Debate is tonight at 8pm.

Please watch!Please watch! Second Presidential Debate is Friday, Second Presidential Debate is Friday,

October 8October 8 Third Presidential Debate is following Third Presidential Debate is following

Wednesday, October 13Wednesday, October 13

Debate Trivia – Who said that?Debate Trivia – Who said that?

"We can build that bridge to the 21st "We can build that bridge to the 21st century.“century.“

"I served with Jack Kennedy; I knew Jack "I served with Jack Kennedy; I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.“mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.“

"Who am I? Why am I here?" "Who am I? Why am I here?" "If there's a fair way, I'm all ears." "If there's a fair way, I'm all ears."

Effect of Debates on Interest in Campaign: 2000 NAES

Who do you think did the best job, Who do you think did the best job, or won, the debate…or won, the debate…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bush Kerry Even Unsure

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Who won the debate?Who won the debate? (by party id) (by party id)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Bush Kerry Tie

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: ABC News Poll

Who do you think was the most Who do you think was the most knowledgeable?knowledgeable?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bush Kerry Even Unsure

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Who do you think responded best Who do you think responded best under pressure?under pressure?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bush Kerry Even Unsure

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Who do you think seemed more Who do you think seemed more “presidential”“presidential”

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Bush Kerry Even Unsure

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Who do you think appeared more Who do you think appeared more likeable?likeable?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Bush Kerry Even Unsure

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Effects of the Debate Effects of the Debate on Voting Intentionson Voting Intentions

Bush's Share of the Two-Party Vote

30

35

40

45

50

55

4-A

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7-A

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10-A

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13-A

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16-A

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19-A

ug

22-A

ug

25-A

ug

28-A

ug

31-A

ug

3-S

ep

6-S

ep

9-S

ep

12-S

ep

15-S

ep

18-S

ep

21-S

ep

24-S

ep

27-S

ep

30-S

ep

3-O

ct

Republican Convention First Debate

Source: http://www.pollingreport.com/

Plan for TodayPlan for Today

Nomination Process-How do we end up Nomination Process-How do we end up with these two candidates?with these two candidates?

Selection process-primaries and caucusesSelection process-primaries and caucuses

Importance of momentumImportance of momentum

Who decides who the party Who decides who the party nominee will be?nominee will be?

In the past, party activists made the In the past, party activists made the decision at the national conventiondecision at the national convention

Now (since the 1970s) voters decide Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primariesthrough caucuses and primaries

The rules play a role in influencing what The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will wintypes of candidates will win

Schedule of 2004 PrimariesSchedule of 2004 Primaries

Front loadingFront loading

70% of all delegates are chosen before the end 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of Marchof March

Benefits the front runnerBenefits the front runner

Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money the money beforebefore the nomination process the nomination process

Increases the importance of the “invisible Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise moneyseason when candidates raise money

Impact of Iowa and NHImpact of Iowa and NH

Carter was the only candidate to win the Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004)nomination (prior to 2004)In every year since 1980 the front-running In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll candidate who led in the last poll conducted conducted beforebefore Iowa still ended up Iowa still ended up winning the nomination.winning the nomination.Compact schedule (front loading) can kill Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshirethe momentum from New Hampshire

Past experiencePast experience

Underdogs have seen their support rise Underdogs have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH.from an early win in Iowa and NH.

Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)

Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)

Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)

Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)

McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

Why do early primaries play such a Why do early primaries play such a large role?large role?

Importance of momentumImportance of momentum

Those who are expected to win receive Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more more news coverage and more contributions contributions

This makes it easier for front runners to This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch win and more difficult for followers to catch up.up.

Expectations in NHExpectations in NH

Source: NH Poll, American Research Grouphttp://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Voters in New HampshireVoters in New Hampshire

Impact of New Hampshire PrimaryImpact of New Hampshire Primary

Opinion about the CandidatesOpinion about the Candidates

Democratic DelegatesDemocratic Delegates

The Democratic Party allots a number of The Democratic Party allots a number of delegates to each state based on population (as delegates to each state based on population (as measured by electoral college votes) and the measured by electoral college votes) and the number of votes the Democratic presidential number of votes the Democratic presidential candidate received in the last general election. candidate received in the last general election. The party assigns states additional delegate The party assigns states additional delegate slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic members of Congress. Superdelegates are members of Congress. Superdelegates are included in the totalsincluded in the totalsDelegates needed to win: 2,162Delegates needed to win: 2,162Total Delegates: 4,322 Total Delegates: 4,322

ResultsResults

Schedule and Results of the 2004 DemocrSchedule and Results of the 2004 Democratic Primaryatic Primary

What happenedWhat happened

See See NY TIMES interactiveNY TIMES interactive

Events in 2004Events in 2004

On Feb. 3, following primaries in 7 states On Feb. 3, following primaries in 7 states (including South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona) (including South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona) primary, Lieberman drops outprimary, Lieberman drops outOn Feb 9, following the Virginia and Tennessee On Feb 9, following the Virginia and Tennessee primaries, Clark drops outprimaries, Clark drops outOn Feb 18, following the Wisconsin primary, On Feb 18, following the Wisconsin primary, Dean drops outDean drops outOn March 3, following 10 primaries (including On March 3, following 10 primaries (including California, New York, Ohio, and Georgia) California, New York, Ohio, and Georgia) Edwards drops outEdwards drops out

Deck is stacked against outsiders, Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogsunder dogs

Half of the Republican delegates awarded Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. after the first six weeks.

News coverage and public interest fades News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season beginsshortly after the primary season begins

The Republican Primary in 2000The Republican Primary in 2000

Delegate Selection RulesDelegate Selection Rules