American Government American Government and Organizationand Organization

PS1301PS1301

Friday, 30 JanuaryFriday, 30 January

Public Interest in the 2000 Public Interest in the 2000 Presidential ElectionPresidential Election

Importance of Early PrimariesImportance of Early Primaries

MomentumMomentum

Depends on expectationsDepends on expectations

Expectations in NHExpectations in NH

Source: NH Poll, American Research Grouphttp://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Voters in New HampshireVoters in New Hampshire

Past experiencePast experience

Underdogs have seen their support rise Underdogs have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH.from an early win in Iowa and NH.

Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)

Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)

Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)

Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)

McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

Impact of Iowa and NHImpact of Iowa and NH

Only Carter won the nominationOnly Carter won the nomination

In every year since 1980 the front-running In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll candidate who led in the last poll conducted conducted beforebefore Iowa still ended up Iowa still ended up winning the nomination.winning the nomination.

Compact schedule (front loading) can kill Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshirethe momentum from New Hampshire

Impact of New Hampshire PrimaryImpact of New Hampshire Primary

Opinion about the CandidatesOpinion about the Candidates

Front loadingFront loading

70% of all delegates are chosen before the end 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of Marchof March

Benefits the front runnerBenefits the front runner

Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money the money beforebefore the nomination process the nomination process

Increases the importance of the “invisible Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise moneyseason when candidates raise money

Beginning Schedule in 2004Beginning Schedule in 2004JANUARY 19, 2004:JANUARY 19, 2004:IowaIowa - Presidential Caucuses - Presidential Caucuses

JANUARY 27, 2004:JANUARY 27, 2004:New HampshireNew Hampshire - Presidential - Presidential Primary Primary

FEBRUARY 3, 2004:FEBRUARY 3, 2004:ArizonaArizona - Presidential Primary - Presidential PrimaryDelawareDelaware - Presidential Primary - Presidential PrimaryMissouriMissouri - Presidential Primary - Presidential PrimaryNew MexicoNew Mexico - Presidential Caucuses - Presidential CaucusesOklahomaOklahoma - Presidential Primary - Presidential PrimarySouth CarolinaSouth Carolina - Presidential Primary - Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY 7, 2004:FEBRUARY 7, 2004:Michigan Michigan - Presidential Caucuses- Presidential CaucusesWashington StateWashington State - Democratic - Democratic Presidential Caucuses Presidential Caucuses

FEBRUARY 8, 2004:FEBRUARY 8, 2004:MaineMaine - Presidential Caucuses - Presidential Caucuses

FEBRUARY 10, 2004:FEBRUARY 10, 2004:District of ColumbiaDistrict of Columbia - Democratic - Democratic Presidential CaucusesPresidential CaucusesTennesseeTennessee - Presidential Primary - Presidential PrimaryVirginiaVirginia - Democratic Presidential - Democratic Presidential Primary Primary

FEBRUARY 17, 2004:FEBRUARY 17, 2004:WisconsinWisconsin - Presidential Primary - Presidential Primary

Web resourceWeb resource

Washington PostWashington Post

CNN Election reportCNN Election report

Deck is stacked against outsiders, Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogsunder dogs

Half of the Republican delegates awarded Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. after the first six weeks.

News coverage and public interest fades News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season beginsshortly after the primary season begins

The Republican Primary in 2000The Republican Primary in 2000

Democratic DelegatesDemocratic Delegates

The Democratic Party allots a number of The Democratic Party allots a number of delegates to each state based on population (as delegates to each state based on population (as measured by electoral college votes) and the measured by electoral college votes) and the number of votes the Democratic presidential number of votes the Democratic presidential candidate received in the last general election. candidate received in the last general election. The party assigns states additional delegate The party assigns states additional delegate slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic members of Congress. Superdelegates are members of Congress. Superdelegates are included in the totalsincluded in the totalsDelegates needed to win: 2,162Delegates needed to win: 2,162Total Delegates: 4,322 Total Delegates: 4,322

Delegate Selection RulesDelegate Selection Rules