american express earnings conference call 4q’08

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American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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American ExpressEarnings Conference Call4Q’08

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Page 1: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

American Express Earnings Conference Call

4Q’08

Page 2: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

2

Summary Financial Performance

Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense

ROE

Income from Continuing Ops*

Diluted EPS from Continuing Ops**

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

(72%)

(11%)$7,324

37.3%

$858

$6,506

(71%)$0.73$0.21

21.7%

$238

(2%)1,1781,155Average Diluted Shares Outstanding

(Millions, except per share amounts)

*Net income was $172MM and $831MM in 4Q’08 and 4Q’07, respectively, and declined 79%. **EPS on a net income basis was $0.15 and $0.71 in 4Q’08 and 4Q’07, respectively, and declined 79%.

Page 3: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Significant Items

($0.24)

$0.45

4Q’08- Reengineering charge

4Q’07- Visa litigation settlement, net

($273)

$534

(Millions, except per share amounts)

($0.06)- Delta-related charge to MR reserve ($66)

After-Tax Per Diluted Share

($0.37)- URR increase to MR liability ($430)($0.23)- Credit-related charge ($274)

Page 4: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Reporting Changes

P&L RevisionsInterest income and interest expense categoriesProvision for losses placementCard fees on lending products reclassificationMarketing, promotion, rewards & CM services breakoutHuman resources line title

Charge Card Credit MetricsUSCS change to 180 day write-offICS and GCS timing

Credit Reserve Reclassifications

Page 5: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Metric Performance

Billed Business ($B)*

- Managed***

Total Cards In Force (MM)

Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending (Dollars)**

*Card billed business includes activities (including cash advances) related to proprietary cards, cards issued under network partnership agreements, and certain insurance fees charged on proprietary cards. **Computed from proprietary card activities only. ***Managed basis includes owned and securitized loans. † FX adjustments assume 4Q’08 foreign exchange rates apply to 4Q’07 results. On an FX adjusted basis, 4Q’07 owned and managed loans would be $52.4B and $75.1B, respectively.

WW Travel Sales ($B)

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$160.5

92.4

$72.0

$2,792

(10%)

7%

(7%)

(14%)

$177.5

86.4

$77.1

$5.3 (19%)$6.5

$3,228

FX Adj.

(5%)

(10%)

Cardmember Loans ($B)$42.2 (22%)$54.4- Owned

(12%)

(19%)

(4%)

Page 6: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Revenue Performance

Discount Revenue

See Annex 1 for reconciliation to managed revenue. *Includes total interest income, total interest expense and securitization income, net. **Includes other commissions and fees and other. ***Translation of foreign currency reduced the total revenues net of interest expense growth rate by approximately 4%.

Net Card Fees

Travel Commissions & Fees

Net Interest & Securitization Income*

All Other Revenue**

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense***

$3,468

536

444

970

1,088

$6,506

(11%)

6%

(14%)

(22%)

(5%)

(11%)

$3,912

508

514

$7,324

1,244

1,146

(Millions)

Page 7: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Provisions for Losses

See Annex 2 for a reconciliation of the impact of significant items on the charge card, cardmember lending and total provisions for losses growth rates. *Translation of foreign currency reduced the provision growth rate by approximately 2%.

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)(Millions)

Charge CardCardmember Lending

$426927

2%(4%)

$419970

Other 51 (16%)61

Total* $1,404 (3%)$1,450

Page 8: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Metric Performance - USCS

Billed Business - USCS ($B)

- Managed*

Total Cards In Force (MM)

Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending (Dollars)

*Managed basis includes owned and securitized loans.

Travel Sales ($MM)

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$92.0

44.2

$62.4

$2,758

(9%)

2%

(5%)

(13%)

$101.2

43.3

$65.9

$655 (7%)$707

$3,161

- Consumer (12%)

- Small Business (3%)

- Owned $32.7 (24%)$43.3Cardmember Loans ($B)

Page 9: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Metric Performance - ICS

Billed Business ($B)

Cardmember Loans ($B)

Total Cards In Force (MM)

Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending (Dollars)

Travel Sales ($MM)

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$24.2

16.3

$9.5

$2,109

(14%)

2%

(15%)

(16%)

$28.2

16.0

$11.2*

$266 (14%)$310

$2,515

FX Adj.

1%

(2%)

(2%)

4%

*On an FX adjusted basis, 4Q’07 cardmember loans would be $9.2B.

Page 10: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Metric Performance - GCS

Billed Business ($B)

Travel Sales ($B)

Total Cards In Force (MM)

Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending (Dollars)

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$28.7

7.1

$4.3

$4,070

(11%)

4%

(22%)

(13%)

$32.2

6.8

$5.5

$4,695

FX Adj.

(5%)

(8%)

(14%)

Page 11: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Metric Performance - GNMS

Global Card Billed Business ($B)*

Total Cards In Force (MM)

*Card billed business includes activities (including cash advances) related to proprietary cards, cards issued under network partnership agreements, and certain insurance fees charged on proprietary cards.

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$160.5

24.8

(10%)

22%

$177.5

20.3Billed Business ($B) $16.0 - %$16.0

Global Network Services

United StatesOutside the United StatesTotal

Global Merchant Services

47.8 (12%)54.5$112.7 (8%)$123.0

Average Discount Rate 2.54%2.53%

FX Adj.

(5%)

11%

3%

Page 12: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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$4,716

Expense Performance

Marketing and Promotion

Salaries and Employee Benefits & Other Operating Expenses*

Total Expenses**

4Q’08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

$524

3,190

$4,942

(35%)

60%

5%

$804

1,997

(Millions)

See Annex 2 for a reconciliation of the impact of significant items on the marketing and promotion, cardmember rewards and salaries and employee benefits and other operating expenses growth rates. *Includes salaries and employee benefits, professional services, occupancy and equipment, communications and other, net. **Translation of foreign currency reduced the expense growth rate by approximately 4%.

Income Tax (Benefit) Provision ($78) $300

Cardmember Rewards 1,088 (39%)1,778Cardmember Services 140 2%137

Page 13: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Charge Card Net Write-off Rate -USCS

3.6% 3.4%3.9%

3.5%

USCS*

1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08

*The net write-off rate does not reflect the write-off of $341 million resulting from the 4Q’08 change from 360 days past due to 180 days past due write-offs.

Page 14: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Charge Card Net Loss Ratios –ICS and GCS

0.12%

0.25%

0.30%

0.14%

0.21%

0.15%

ICS GCS

4Q'07 3Q'08 4Q'08

Page 15: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Charge Card 30 Days Past Due -USCS

3.6% 3.7%3.3% 3.4%

USCS

1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08

Page 16: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Charge Card 90 Days Past Due –ICS and GCS

1.8%2.1%

1.8%

2.7%2.7%3.1%

ICS GCS

4Q'07 3Q'08 4Q'08

Page 17: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates

*See Annex 3 for owned basis. **There are no off-balance sheet International Card Services securitizations; therefore, the net write-off rates for International Card Services are on an owned basis.

3.4%

4.4%3.6%

5.7%

6.7%

5.1%

6.5%5.9%

5.1%

USCS* ICS** AXP*

4Q'07 3Q'08 4Q'08

Page 18: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Lending Managed 30 Days Past Due

2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

3.8%

4.7%

3.6%

4.6%

3.3%3.9%

USCS* ICS** AXP*

4Q'07 3Q'08 4Q'08

*See Annex 3 for owned basis. **There are no off-balance sheet International Card Services securitizations; therefore, the net write-off rates for International Card Services are on an owned basis.

Page 19: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Percentage of Capital Distributed

Capital Generated*

(Millions)

DividendsShare RepurchasesCapital Distributed

$209

$209-

$209

$2,971

$836218

$1,054

% of Capital Distributed 100% 35%

4Q’08 FY’08

*Capital generated is reported net income plus options and other (primarily employee plan) proceeds.

Capital Retained $0 $1,917

Page 20: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Capital Strength

6.7%

7.5% 7.8%8.3%

7.9%

5.7% 5.8%6.1%

6.6%6.0%

4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08

Total Capital to Total Managed AssetsTotal Tangible Capital to Total Managed Assets

Total Capital is defined as shareholder’s equity plus the portion of its subordinated debt that has equity characteristics of $563MM for all periods. Additionally, Total Tangible Capital excludes goodwill and intangibles for all periods. See Annex 4 for owned basis calculations.

Page 21: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Capital Ratios

10.8%

9.4%

7.6%

12.7%Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital

14.2%Total Risk-Based Capital

10.1%Tier 1 Leverage

(Preliminary) Pro-Forma with TARP12/31/08

These ratios represent a preliminary estimate as of the date of these earnings slides and may be revised in the Company’s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Page 22: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Liquidity Update per 3Q’08 Earnings Call

Net Commercial PaperNet Bank Time DepositsMaturing Long-Term Debt

$5B Liquidity Portfolio

$5B ABS Conduit FacilityFed TAF / Discount Window*

$9B Undrawn Committed Bank Lines

Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program*

Commercial Paper Funding Facility*

Liquidity Sources:

Funding Needs:

$20B$24B

$0B$4B

Total

XX

XXX

12 Months

*Subject to meeting criteria for participation and discretion of applicable federal agencies administering these programs.

As of October 17, 2008:

Page 23: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Funding and Liquidity Sources

Increased retail CD & sweep depositsTLGP issuance

$16Beginning cash balance - Sep 30, 2008

Ending cash balance - Dec 31, 2008 21

(Billions)

Operating cash

6

Short-term debt outstanding

Excess cash and readily marketable securities –Dec 31, 2008

Net reduction of short term debt / institutional deposits (10)

(4)(9)

$13*

9

Liquidity investment portfolio 5

*Excludes $3.4 billion of TARP proceeds received January 9, 2009.

Page 24: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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2009 Term Debt Maturities

2.90.02.94Q’095.42.72.73Q’097.80.67.22Q’09

$19.9$4.8$15.1FY’09

$3.8$1.5$2.31Q’09

Unsecured ABS Total(Billions)

Accounts receivable/loan growth or (contraction)

Page 25: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Remaining Funding & Liquidity Sources

Retail Deposit Programs

Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, (TLGP)

Commercial Paper

Federal TAF / Discount Window

Committed Bank Lines

ABS

Unsecured Term Debt

Page 26: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Page 27: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Annex 1

(Millions) 4Q'08 4Q'07 %Inc/(Dec)

GAAP Revenues Net of Interest Expense 6,506$ 7,324$ (11%)

Securit ization Adjustments: Discount revenue, net card fees and other 110 76 Interest income 902 828 Securitization income (199) (326) Interest expense (230) (287)

Managed Revenues Net of Interest Expense 7,089$ 7,615$ (7%)

Page 28: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Annex 2 GAAP to Non-GAAPReconciliation

(Millions) 4Q'08 4Q'07 % Inc/(Dec)

GAAP charge card provisions for losses $426 $419 2%Credit-related charge (96)Adjusted charge card provisions for losses $426 $323 32%

GAAP cardmember lending provisions for losses $927 $970 (4%)Credit-related charge (288)Adjusted cardmember lending provisions for losses $927 $682 36%

GAAP total provisions for losses $1,404 $1,450 (3%)Credit-related charge (384)Adjusted total provisions for losses $1,404 $1,066 32%

GAAP marketing and promotion expenses $524 $804 (35%)Incremental business building costs (143)Adjusted marketing and promotion expenses $524 $661 (21%)

GAAP cardmember rewards expenses $1,088 $1,778 (39%)Delta-related charge to the Company's MR balance sheet reserve (106)MR-related charge (685)Adjusted cardmember rewards expenses $982 $1,093 (10%)

GAAP salaries and employee benefits and other operating expenses $3,190 $1,997 60%Reengineering costs (421) (16)Init ial Visa litigation sett lement net of litigation-related costs and charitable contribution 1,006Adjusted salaries and employee benefits and other operating expenses $2,769 $2,987 (7%)

Page 29: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Annex 3(Billions) 4Q'07 3Q'08 4Q'08 FY07 FY08Cardmember Lending Owned BasisTotal Loans

USCS 43.3 34.6 32.7 43.3 32.7AXP 54.4 45.7 42.2 54.4 42.2

30 Days Past Due Loans as a % of TotalUSCS 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 2.8% 4.7%AXP 2.8% 3.7% 4.4% 2.8% 4.4%

Average LoansUSCS 40.8 36.3 33.2 37.1 36.7AXP 51.6 47.7 43.0 47.1 47.6

Net Write-off RateUSCS 3.5% 6.1% 7.0% 3.1% 5.8%AXP 3.7% 5.8% 6.5% 3.5% 5.5%

Cardmember Lending Managed BasisTotal Loans

USCS 65.9 64.3 62.4 65.9 62.4AXP 77.1 75.5 72.0 77.1 72.0

30 Days Past Due Loans as a % of TotalUSCS 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 2.8% 4.7%AXP 2.8% 3.8% 4.6% 2.8% 4.6%

Average LoansUSCS 63.2 64.6 63.0 58.2 64.0AXP 74.0 76.1 72.8 68.2 75.0

Net Write-off RateUSCS 3.4% 5.9% 6.7% 3.1% 5.5%AXP 3.6% 5.7% 6.5% 3.3% 5.4%

Page 30: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Annex 4

(Millions) 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08

Total Equity 11,029 11,511 12,269 12,519 11,773 Total Tangible Equity 9,317 8,754 9,509 9,737 8,755

Qualifying Subordinated Debt 563 563 563 563 563

Total Capital* 11,592 12,074 12,832 13,082 12,336 Total Tangible Capital* 9,880 9,317 10,072 10,300 9,318

Total Owned Loans 54,408 49,445 49,621 45,706 42,210 Total Managed Loans 77,078 75,050 76,489 75,467 71,972

Total Securitized Loans 22,670 25,605 26,868 29,761 29,762

Total Assets 149,743 135,193 137,227 127,115 126,111 Total Managed Assets 172,413 160,798 164,095 156,876 155,873

Total Capital to Total Managed Assets* 6.7% 7.5% 7.8% 8.3% 7.9%Total Tangible Capital to Total Managed Assets* 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 6.6% 6.0%Total Capital to Total Assets* 7.7% 8.9% 9.4% 10.3% 9.8%Total Tangible Capital to Total Assets* 6.6% 6.9% 7.3% 8.1% 7.4%

*Total Capital is def ined as shareholder’s equity plus the portion of its subordinated debt that has equity characteristics of $563MM for all periods. Addit ionally , Total Tangible Capital exc ludes goodwill and intangibles for all periods.

Page 31: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Forward Looking Statement

This release includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The forward-looking statements, which address the Company’s expected business and financial performance, among other matters, contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “optimistic,” “intend,” “plan,” “aim,” “will,” “may,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “likely,” and similar expressions. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: consumer and business spending on the Company’s credit and charge card products and Travelers Cheques and other prepaid products and growth in card lending balances, which depend in part on the economic environment, and the ability to issue new and enhanced card and prepaid products, services and rewards programs, and increase revenues from such products, attract new Cardmembers, reduce Cardmember attrition, capture a greater share of existing Cardmembers’ spending, and sustain premium discount rates on its card products in light of regulatory and market pressures, increase merchant coverage, retain Cardmembers after low introductory lending rates have expired, and expand the Global Network Services business; the Company’s ability to manage credit risk related to consumer debt, business loans, merchants and other credit trends, which will depend in part on the economic environment, including, among other things, the housing market, the rates of bankruptcies and unemployment, which can affect spending on card products, debt payments by individual and corporate customers and businesses that accept the Company’s card products, and on the effectiveness of the Company’s credit models; the impact of the Company’s efforts to deal with delinquent Cardmembers in the current challenging economic environment, which may affect payment patterns of Cardmembers, the Company’s near-term write-off rates, including during the first half of 2009, and the volumes of the Company’s loan balances in 2009; the write-off and delinquency rates in the medium-to long-term of Cardmembers added by the Company during the past few years, which could impact their profitability to the Company; the Company’s ability to effectively implement changes in the pricing of certain of its products and services; fluctuations in interest rates (including fluctuations in benchmarks, such as LIBOR and other benchmark rates, and credit spreads), which impact the Company’s borrowing costs, return on lending products and the value of the Company’s investments; the Company’s ability to meet its ROE target range of 33 to 36 percent on average and over time, which will depend in part on factors such as the Company’s ability to generate sufficient revenue growth and achieve sufficient margins, fluctuations in the capital required to support its businesses, the mix of the Company’s financings, and fluctuations in the level of the Company’s shareholders’ equity due to share repurchases, dividends, changes in accumulated other comprehensive income and accounting changes, among other things; the actual amount to be spent by the Company on marketing, promotion, rewards and Cardmember services based on management’s assessment of competitive opportunities and other factors affecting its judgment; the ability to control and manage operating, infrastructure, advertising and promotion expenses as business expands or changes, including the ability to accurately estimate the provision for the cost of the Membership Rewards program; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; the Company’s ability to grow its business, generate excess capital and, over time, meet or exceed its return on shareholders’ equity target by reinvesting approximately 35 percent of annually-generated capital, and returning approximately 65 percent of such capital to shareholders which will depend on the Company’s ability to manage its capital needs and the effect of business mix, acquisitions and rating agency requirements; the success of the Global Network Services business in partnering with banks in the United States, which will depend in part on the extent to which such business further enhances the Company’s brand, allows the Company to leverage its significant processing scale, expands merchant coverage of the network, provides Global Network Services’ bank partners in the United States the benefits of greater Cardmember loyalty and higher spend per customer, and merchant benefits such as greater transaction volume and additional higher spending customers; the ability of the Global Network Services business to meet the performance requirements called for by the Company’s recent settlements with MasterCard and Visa; trends in travel and entertainment spending and the overall level of consumer confidence; the uncertainties associated with business acquisitions, including, among others, the failure to realize anticipated business retention, growth and cost savings, as well as the ability to effectively integrate the acquired business into the Company’s existing operations; the underlying assumptions and

Page 32: American Express Earnings Conference Call 4Q’08

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Forward Looking Statement (Cont.)

expectations related to the February 2008 sale of the American Express Bank Ltd. businesses and the transaction’s impact on the Company’s earnings proving to be inaccurate or unrealized; the success, timeliness and financial impact (including costs, cost savings, and other benefits, including increased revenues), and beneficial effect on the Company’s operating expense to revenue ratio, both in the short-term (including during 2009) and over time, of reengineering initiatives being implemented or considered by the Company, including cost management, structural and strategic measures such as vendor, process, facilities and operations consolidation, outsourcing (including, among others, technologies operations), relocating certain functions to lower-cost overseas locations, moving internal and external functions to the internet to save costs, and planned staff reductions relating to certain of such reengineering actions; the Company’s ability to reinvest the benefits arising from such reengineering actions in its businesses; bankruptcies, restructurings, consolidations or similar events (including, among others, the Delta Airlines/Northwest Airlines merger) affecting the airline or any other industry representing a significant portion of the Company’s billed business, including any potential negative effect on particular card products and services and billed business generally that could result from the actual or perceived weakness of key business partners in such industries; the triggering of obligations to make payments to certain co-brand partners, merchants, vendors and customers under contractual arrangements with such parties under certain circumstances; a downturn in the Company’s businesses and/or negative changes in the Company’s and its subsidiaries’credit ratings, which could result in contingent payments under contracts, decreased liquidity and higher borrowing costs; the ability of the Company to satisfy its liquidity needs and execute on its funding plans, which will depend on, among other things, the Company’s future business growth, its credit ratings, market capacity and demand for securities offered by the Company, performance by the Company’s counterparties under its bank credit facilities and other lending facilities, regulatory changes, including changes to the policies, rules and regulations of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Company’s ability to securitize and sell receivables and the performance of receivables previously sold in securitization transactions and the Company’s ability to meet the criteria for participation in certain liquidity facilities and other funding programs, including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, being made available through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and other federal departments and agencies; the Company’s ability to redeem or otherwise access in a timely manner up to $500 million invested in the Primary Reserve Fund, from which redemptions have been currently suspended; accuracy of estimates for the fair value of the assets in the Company’s investment portfolio and, in particular, those investments that are not readily marketable, including the valuation of the interest-only strip relating to the Company’s lending securitizations; the Company’s ability to invest in technology advances across all areas of its business to stay on the leading edge of technologies applicable to the payments industry; the Company’s ability to protect its intellectual property rights (IP) and avoid infringing the IP of other parties; the potential negative effect on the Company’s businesses and infrastructure, including information technology, of terrorist attacks, natural disasters or other catastrophic events in the future; political or economic instability in certain regions or countries, which could affect lending and other commercial activities, among other businesses, or restrictions on convertibility of certain currencies; changes in laws or government regulations; the potential impact of regulations adopted by federal bank regulators relating to certain credit and charge card practices, including, among others, the imposition by card issuers of interest rate increases on outstanding balances and the allocation of payments in respect of outstanding balances with different interest rates, which could have an adverse impact on the Company’s net income; accounting changes; outcomes and costs associated with litigation and compliance and regulatory matters; and competitive pressures in all of the Company’s major businesses. A further description of these and other risks and uncertainties can be found in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, Item 1A of Part 2 in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2008, and the Company’s other reports filed with the SEC.