alexandra henze - arcelormittal - managing key strategic challenges for a sustainable future
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Managing key strategic challenges for a sustainable futureAlexandra Henze – Corporate Strategy
IMM EU Iron OreOctober 2nd, 2014
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Disclaimer
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking information and statements about
ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’sAnnual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresThis presentation may contain supplemental financial measures that are or may be non-
GAAP financial measures. Definitions of such supplemental financial measures and a discussion of the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures can be found on ArcelorMittal's website at http://www.arcelormittal.com/corp/investors/presentations/.
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Agenda
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
• Historical context
• Outlook reflecting challenges, uncertainties and risks
• ArcelorMittal’s strategic response
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Steel consumption growth over the past decade has been driven by China and other Developing markets; Developed world demand remains far below its peak
138 170 206 259 295 333 393 441 453565 612 667 688 735
234 248256
270307
322357
399 399
352407
436 457474
467 431440
439
473454
493
492 469 309
391
413403
401
839 849902
968
1075 1109
12431332 1321
1226
1410
1516 15481609
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
17.2%
Crude steel consumption by region(million tonnes)
China
8.2%
2.2%
CAGR ’01-’07
9.0%
2.8%
-4.0%
CAGR ’07-’13
* EU15, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New ZealandSources: Worldsteel; ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy analysis
Developed world*
Developing world
5.2% CAGR5.2% CAGR 7.8% 2.9%
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
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Steel demand growth rates in China have trended downChina annual GDP growth rate (%)
Sources: Havor, ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy analysis9th Annual EU IRON ORE
China annual growth rates of GDP and ASC (apparent crude steel consumption), (%)
7.5%
11.3%
12.7%
14.2%
9.6%9.2%
10.5%
7.0%
9.3%
7.8% 7.7%7.3%
11thplan
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 12thplan
2011 2012 2013 2014F0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 '08/09 2010 2011 2012 201320143F
Ratio ASC/GDP Growth (LHS)
ASC growth (RHS)
Real GDP growth (RHS)
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The ex-China BRICS have disappointed in terms of growth after a strong recovery
Sources: Global Insight; ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy analysis9th Annual EU IRON ORE
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0Sep'10
Sep'11
Sep'12
Sep'13
Sep'14
BRICS ex-China - evolution of GDP growth projection and actuals (%)
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Apparent steel consumption (Finished, 2007 = 100)
Sources: Haver Analytics, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank
Stronger steel demand recovery in NAFTA compared to Europe
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
China +74%
Other Europe +25%Asia ex-China +13%
NAFTA -5%
EU28 -29%
World +26%
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Start of declining raw material prices after period of high prices driven by tight supply1990 -YTD 2014 Raw materials price index (1990 real values***) Indexed at 1990 =100
*1990-2003 McCloskey, 2004-2014 Morgan Stanley **1990-1999 WSD, 2000-2014 SBB (since 2010 it is spot)***Used USA CPI as deflatorSource: Morgan Stanley, Citi group, McCloskey, NSW.gov, Inflationdata.com, WSD, SBB, ArcelorMittal analysis
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500HCC: Benchmark FOB Australia*
Iron ore: Benchmark FOB Brazil, Vale sinter feed**
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Agenda
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
• Historical context
• Outlook reflecting challenges, uncertainties and risks
• ArcelorMittal’s strategic response
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AM delivery weighted PMI*
* Markit. Purchasing Managers indices (PMI) for over 40 countries weighted by share of ArcelorMittal finished steel deliveries in each year.Sources: ArcelorMittal Calculations, Haver Analytics and Markit
PMI indicates continued demand growth
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
35
40
45
50
55
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Expansion
Contraction
Global apparent steel consumption (ASC) growth forecast in 2014** (v 2013)
Global 3.0-3.5%
CIS -2.0 to 0%
Brazil -1.0 to 0%
China 3.0-3.5%
EU28 3.0-4.0%
US 5.0-6.0%
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Unemployment rate, percent
Sources: Haver Analytics, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank
Improving labour market and credit conditions are driving growth in the US
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
European Union
United States
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eurozone
United States
Bank credit to the private sector, percent change year-on-year
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Apparent crude steel consumption, million tonnes(base case)
Sources: Haver Analytics, China National Bureau of Statistics, and China Index Academy - China Real Estate Index System (CREIS)
Building sales are a leading indicator of construction starts in China
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Commodity buildings sold (+6months lag)Newly started construction (RHS)
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Apparent crude steel consumption, million tonnes(base case)
Sources: ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy team analysis
Despite declining real estate, other sectors support steel demand growth
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
Ship Building
Auto
Light industry
Machinery
Infrastructure
Real estate
Other
7.5% CAGR7.5% CAGR
2.0% CAGR2.0% CAGR
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Infrastructure still far behind the US, implying further potentialKey development parameters China vs USA
* Airport of USA is for paved runways > 1524 to 2437 mSources: China National Bureau of Statistics; Macquarie Research, ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
0.70
521
4.3
14.1
23
0.45
469
2.3
11.9
19
0.35
448
1.7
10.7
18
1.45
658
3.9
23
78
Airport transportpassenger carried (bln)
Total road (km per 1000 sqkm)
Subway per 1000 capita(m)
Railway (km per 1000 sqkm)
Urban residential floorspace (m2 per capita)
Absolute levels
USA, 2008
China, 2018f
Per capita/Per land area
China, 2013
252
5298
7.8
142
34.3
238
4798
4.7
129
29.3
197
4308
2.4
103
24.1
1452
6466
1.2
227
23.8
Airport (units)
Total road (thousand km)
Subway (thousand km)
Railway (thousand km)
Urban residential floorspace (billion m2)
*
Equal to 33, 35, 37 m2 per urban
residential
China, 2023f
149th Annual EU IRON ORE
Global growth has improved, but downside risks remain elevated
Source: ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy analysis
Elevated Risks
China hard
landing
Energy
price
shock
Eurozone deflation
Emerging Market
structural bottlenecks
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Agenda
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
• Historical context
• Outlook reflecting challenges, uncertainties and risks
• ArcelorMittal’s strategic response
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ArcelorMittal Strategy
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
In steel, capture a leading position in attractive businesses by leveraging our technical capabilities and global scale and scope• Be the supplier of choice for
customers who value distinctive products and services
• Grow in markets with attractive structures
• Minimize costs in commodity businesses to lower risks and capture boom-market potential
In mining, grow a world-class business utilising our financial strength and diverse portfolio of assets and businesses• Invest to expand output at Tier I
and Tier II assets• Optimize the value proposition
associated with our products’ value in use
• Be the supplier of choice for a balanced mix of internal and external customers
• Provide a natural hedge against market volatility and potential oligopolies
A clear licence to operate
The best talent
A strong balance sheet
An effective organisational structure
Active portfoliomanagement
Our strategy is to leverage our distinctive attributes that enable us to achieve a leading position in the most attractive components of the steel value chain
In operations, achieve best-in-class competitiveness by leveraging our technical capabilities and diverse portfolio of assets and businesses• Be the safest• Concentrate production
at the best assets and run them well
• Be cost competitive by benchmarking, sharing best practices, and investing to optimize our multi-site footprint
• Innovate (product/process)
Enablers
17Source: ArcelorMittal Mining
Iron ore strategic objectives
Leveraging infrastructure to bring resources to market and reduce costs
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
• 10Mt capacity added in 2013• Marketable shipments +22%
• Average iron ore concentrate cash costs maintained in 2013
• Projected to decline in 2014 with increasing volume
• “Stretch” production beyond 84Mt at minimal additional capex
• Opportunities identified at Liberia and AMMC
Marketable iron ore shipments growth (Mt)
29 35
~ +15%+22%
2014F20132012
Iron ore production capacity (Mt)
60 70
84 95
2015F20132012 Stretch
Delivering on volumeDelivering on volume
Delivering on CostDelivering on Cost
Identifying GrowthIdentifying Growth
Reinforced ManagementReinforced Management
• New CEO Bill Scotting• In place since mid 2013
18Source: ArcelorMittal Mining
Liberia growing to 15Mt with further stretch potential
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
Revised phase 2 project:• Product analysis and additional mine planning have
identified potential to supply 15Mtpa high quality sinter feed at significantly lower cost than concentrate for first 8-10yrs
• Investment capex estimate of circa $1.7 billionStretch opportunity:• Better definition of ore body and mine plan confirmed
potential to continue DSO phase for additional 6 years• Expansion to 20Mtpa capacity*• Incremental investments enable benefits of scale on rail,
port and SGA
15
5
15
5
Stretch
20
Phase 2 -Sinter feed
2014 DSO
DSO (Stretch)
2014 DSO
Phase 2 Sinter feed
Liberia iron ore capacity forecast (MMt)
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AMMC expanded to 24Mt with potential to stretch to 30Mt
9th Annual EU IRON ORE
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8 2
2 2
Stretch potential
30
2014F
24
201320132012
15
Concentrator andspirals expansion
complete
Incremental debottlenecking
Potential 6MT expansion -low capex intensity
Potential further debottleneck
Production
Daily records show potential in systemIncremental investments for debottlenecking as requ ired:• Mt Wright mine optimization, Fire Lake expansion (richer ore)
and crusher debottlenecking• Rail winter reclaim capability, long train capability, additional
sidings• Additional conveyor capacity at port• Significant cost benefits from scale• Potential to expand beyond 30Mt at low capital intensity
AM Mines Canada Iron ore production/ capacity (MMt)
Source: ArcelorMittal Mining
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Thank You
IMM EU Iron Ore - Oct 2013