ak-sen, ak-gov hellenthal & associates (oct. 2014)

8/10/2019 AK-Sen, AK-Gov Hellenthal & Associates (Oct. 2014)

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TOTALS...................403......100.0%.......+ 4.88%

Margin of error

At a 95% confidence level, the empirical proportions reported in the general population survey can be projected

within plus or minus 4.88%, to the entire Alaskan likely voter population, aged 18 and over. This means one can

be 95% sure that the frequencies reported in the general population survey are within 4.88% of the true Alaskanlikley voter population proportions.

The questionnaire with results is as follows:

ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY

October 15th to 21st, 2014

Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88%

HELLENTHAL AND ASSOCIATES

2200 Vanderbilt Circle

Anchorage, Alaska 99508

(907) 276-1001 or

277-2315 (fax)

[email protected] (e-mail)

Hello, my name is_______________ and I am calling for Alaska Research Company. We are conducting an area

wide public opinion research survey. Your telephone number was randomly selected. The questions I need to ask

will take only a few minutes. All of your responses will be completely confidential. (PAUSE AND PROCEED)

S1. Is this telephone number _____________?

S2. (LANDLINE) Am I talking to you at a place where you live? (CELL) Do you live in Alaska?

S3. Are you registered to vote in the State of Alaska?

IF YES, THEN PROCEED TO QUESTION #1

IF NO, THEN ASK...

Is there anyone home who is registered to vote in the State of Alaska?

IF YES THEN ASK...

May I speak with them? (PROCEED TO QUESTION #1 OR TERMINATE AND

NOTE ON TELEPHONE SHEET)

IF NO, THEN ASK...

When will someone be home who is registered to vote? (TERMINATE AND NOTE

ON TELEPHONE SHEET)

1. Realistically speaking, are you absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely, or not at all likely to vote in

the November 4th Alaska GeneralElection?

LIKELINESS TO VOTE FREQUENCY PERCENT


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Absolutely certain.................285........70.7%

Very likely.........................91........22.5%

Somewhat likely.....................27.........6.8%

2. I am going to read the names of some public figures. Please tell me whether your opinion of each is very

positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative -- or if you don't know who they are. I

your opinion of (FILL IN PUBLIC FIGURES) very positive, somewhat positive, somewha

negative, or very negative -- or don't you know who he/she is?

4 3 2 1 0

VERY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT VERY

FIGURES POSITIVE POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE NEGATIVE WHO? MEAN

Bill Walker.......14.6%....26.0%....32.1%....10.2%.....4.7%...12.5%...2.406

Forrest Dunbar.....7.6%....16.7%....26.5%.....3.5%.....2.5%...43.2%...2.412

Don Young.........19.4%....30.0%....18.0%....14.9%....17.7%....0.0%...2.184

Mark Begich.......23.8%....24.3%....10.7%....18.5%....22.7%....0.0%...2.079

Sean Parnell......17.0%....30.2%....17.1%....15.3%....20.5%....0.0%...2.079

Dan Sullivan......16.8%....26.8%....14.6%....20.4%....21.4%....0.0%...1.973

(ROTATE ORDER)

3. If the November 4th 2014 Generalelection for Governor of Alaska were held today and the candidates

are.... For whom would you vote for Governor of Alaska?

GENERAL

2014 GUBERNATORIAL FREQUENCY PERCENT PERCENT

Sean Parnell, Republican,..........179........44.3%.....48.5%

Bill Walker, unaffiliated,.........171........42.5%.....46.5%

Carolyn Care, Libertarian, and......15.........3.8%......4.1%

J.R. Myers, Alaska Constitution,.....3.........0.8%......0.9%

Don't know..........................35.........8.6%....MISSING

PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Strong Parnell...........................64........15.9%

Moderate Parnell.........................67........16.7%

Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7%

Undecided................................35.........8.6%

Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5%

Moderate Walker..........................27.........6.6%

Strong Walker...........................102........25.3%

Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%

J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%


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PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6%

Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7%

Undecided................................35.........8.6%

Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5%

Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9%

Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%

J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%

PARNELL-WALKER TARGET VOTERS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6%

Target voters...........................124........30.9%

Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9%

Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%

J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%

4. If the November 4th 2014 Generalelection for U.S. House were held today and the candidates are.... For

whom would you vote for U.S. House?

GENERAL

2014 U.S. CONGRESSIONAL FREQUENCY PERCENT PERCENT

Don Young, Republican,.............209........51.9%.....55.7%

Forrest Dunbar, Democrat, and......142........35.2%.....37.8%

Jim McDermott, Libertarian,.........25.........6.1%......6.5%


YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Strong Young.............................70........17.5%

Moderate Young...........................95........23.6%

Leaning Young............................44........10.8%

Undecided................................27.........6.8%

Leaning Dunbar...........................33.........8.3%

Moderate Dunbar..........................29.........7.2%

Strong Dunbar............................80........19.8%

Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%

YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Young...........................165........41.1%

Leaning Young............................44........10.8%

Undecided................................27.........6.8%


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Leaning Dunbar...........................33.........8.3%

Str-Mod Dunbar..........................109........27.0%

Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%

YOUNG-DUNBAR TARGET VOTERS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Young...........................165........41.1%

Target voters...........................104........25.9%Str-Mod Dunbar..........................109........27.0%

Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%

5. If the November 4th 2014 Generalelection for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates are.... For

whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

GENERAL

2014 U.S. SENATE GENERAL FREQUENCY PERCENT PERCENT

Mark Begich, Democrat, and.........196........48.6%.....51.5%

Dan Sullivan, Republican,..........158........39.2%.....41.6%

Mark Fish, Libertarian,.............11.........2.8%......3.0%

Ted Gianoutsos, Non-Affiliated,.....15.........3.7%......4.0%


BEGICH-SULLIVAN STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Strong Begich...........................134........33.2%

Moderate Begich..........................29.........7.3%

Leaning Begich...........................32.........8.0%

Undecided................................23.........5.7%

Leaning Sullivan.........................26.........6.6%

Moderate Sullivan........................10.........2.6%

Strong Sullivan.........................121........30.1%

Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%

Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%

BEGICH-SULLIVAN STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Begich..........................163........40.5%

Leaning Begich...........................32.........8.0%


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Undecided................................23.........5.7%

Leaning Sullivan.........................26.........6.6%

Str-Mod Sullivan........................132........32.7%

Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%

Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%

BEGICH-SULLIVAN TARGET VOTERS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Str-Mod Begich..........................163........40.5%

Target voters............................82........20.2%

Str-Mod Sullivan........................132........32.7%

Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%

Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%

6. Please tell me if you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose ___________

(FILL IN STATEMENT)?

4 3 2 1 0

DON'T

STRONGLY SOMEWHAT KNOW/ SOMEWHAT STRONGLY

STATEMENTS FAVOR FAVOR NEUTRAL OPPOSE OPPOSE MEAN

Raising Alaska's minimum

wage from $7.75 to

$8.75 in 2015 and

from $8.75 to $9.75

in 2016..............52.3%....16.4%.....4.6%....12.6%....14.1%...2.801

Banning mining such as

Pebble Mine in

Bristol Bay..........31.5%....11.0%....13.4%....14.4%....29.7%...2.265

Legalizing marijuana

in Alaska............29.7%....16.8%....11.3%.....7.2%....35.0%...2.003

Keeping Anchorage's City

Employee Relations

Labor Law AO-37

supported by Mayor


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Dan Sullivan.........14.8%.....6.5%....56.9%.....5.5%....16.2%...1.981

(ROTATE ORDER)

The last few questions are being collected purely for statistical purposes.

7. What is your political party affiliation? ("What are you registered as?")

PARTY AFFILIATION FREQUENCY PERCENT

Republican Party...................133........33.1%

Democratic Party....................71........17.7%

Green Party..........................0.........0.0%

Alaskan Independence Party...........0.........0.0%

Libertarian Party....................5.........1.2%

Veteran Party........................0.........0.0%

No Party Affiliation/Independent...193........48.0%

8. In state elections, do you usually vote for all Republicans, more Republicans than Democrats, Republicans

and Democrats about equally, more Democrats than Republicans, or to you vote for all Democrats?

PARTY VOTING PREFERENCE FREQUENCY PERCENT

All Republicans.............................46........11.5%

More Republicans than Democrats............115........28.5%

Republicans and Democrats about equally....148........36.8%

More Democrats than Republicans.............74........18.5%

All Democrats...............................19.........4.8%

9. In what year were you born? (COMPUTED TO AGE BY SUBTRACTING FROM 114)

AGE OF RESPONDENT FREQUENCY PERCENT

18 to 34...........................107........26.6%

35 to 49...........................116........28.8%

50 to 64...........................111........27.6%

65 or older.........................68........17.0%

(Median = 47.000 years)

(Mean = 47.319 years)

10. (IF LANDLINE PHONE, ASK.....) Is your residence accessible by cell phone?


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CELL PHONE FREQUENCY PERCENT

Yes................................397........98.6%

No...................................6.........1.4%

11. (IF CELL PHONE, ASK.....) Do you have a wired land-line at your residence?

WIRED LAND-LINE FREQUENCY PERCENT

Yes................................249........61.8%

No.................................154........38.2%

(COMPUTE FROM PRECEDING TWO QUESTIONS)

TELEPHONE STATUS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Land-line only at residence..........6.........1.4%

Cell phone only at residence.......150........37.2%

Both cell phone and land-line......247........61.4%

12. Are you married or single?

MARITAL STATUS FREQUENCY PERCENT

Married............................232........57.5%

Single.............................171........42.5%

13. What is the Zip Code where you live?

ZIP CODE FREQUENCY PERCENT

Downtown 99501.......................11.........2.8%

Sand Lake 99502......................12.........2.9%

North Midtown 99503...................9.........2.2%

Northeast Anchorage 99504............23.........5.7%


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Ft. Richardson 99505..................0.........0.0%

Elmendorf AFB 99506...................2.........0.5%

Lake Otis 99507......................17.........4.3%

Russian Jack 99508...................18.........4.5%

Huffman P.O. Box 99511................0.........0.0%

Reka Drive 99512......................2.........0.5%

Downtown P.O. Box 99513...............0.........0.0%

Northway P.O. Box 99514...............3.........0.8%

Southwest Anchorage 99515............14.........3.5%Southeast Anchorage 99516.............8.........1.9%

Turnagain/Spenard 99517...............9.........2.2%

South Midtown 99518...................6.........1.5%

Sandlake P.O. Box 99522...............0.........0.0%

Lake Otis P.O. Box 99523..............0.........0.0%

Downtown P.O Box 99524................0.........0.0%

Port Lions 99550......................0.........0.2%

Akutan 99553..........................1.........0.2%

Anchor Point 99556....................3.........0.6%

Aniak 99557...........................2.........0.5%

Bethel 99559..........................3.........0.8%Chignik 99564.........................0.........0.0%

Chugiak 99567.........................4.........1.1%

Cooper Landing 99572..................1.........0.3%

Glennallen 99573......................2.........0.5%

Cordova 99574.........................2.........0.4%

Dillingham 99576......................2.........0.5%

Eagle River 99577....................27.........6.6%

Egegik 99579..........................0.........0.0%

Emmonak 99581.........................1.........0.3%

Gakona 99586..........................0.........0.0%

Girdwood 99587........................1.........0.3%

Glennallen/Mendeltna 99588............1.........0.3%

Holy Cross 99602......................0.........0.0%

Homer 99603...........................4.........1.1%

Iliamna 99606.........................0.........0.0%

Kasilof 99610.........................2.........0.5%

Kenai 99611...........................4.........1.1%

King Cove 99612.......................0.........0.0%

King Salmon 99613.....................1.........0.3%

Kodiak 99615..........................5.........1.3%

Kwethluk 99621........................1.........0.2%

Wasilla 99623.........................3.........0.8%

McGrath 99627.........................1.........0.2%

Manokotak 99628.......................1.........0.2%

Meadow Lakes 99629....................0.........0.0%

Mountain Village 99632................1.........0.2%

Kenai 99635...........................1.........0.3%

Ninilchik 99639.......................1.........0.3%

Nondalton 99640.......................0.........0.0%


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ZIP CODE FREQUENCY PERCENT

Palmer 99645.........................18.........4.5%

Pedro Bay 99647.......................0.........0.0%

Perryville 99648......................0.........0.0%

Pilot Station 99650...................0.........0.0%

Big Lake 99652........................2.........0.5%

Wasilla 99654........................15.........3.8%

St. Mary's 99658......................1.........0.3%Sand Point 99661......................1.........0.3%

Seldovia 99663........................1.........0.3%

Seward 99664..........................2.........0.5%

Shageluk 99665........................1.........0.3%

Skwentna 99667........................0.........0.0%

Soldotna 99669.......................11.........2.8%

Stebbins 99671........................0.........0.0%

Sterling 99672........................4.........1.1%

Sutton 99674..........................0.........0.0%

Talkeetna 99676.......................2.........0.5%

Togiak 99678..........................1.........0.2%Trapper Creek 99683...................2.........0.6%

Unalakleet 99684......................1.........0.2%

Unalaska 99685........................1.........0.2%

Valdez 99686..........................3.........0.8%

Wasilla 99687.........................3.........0.8%

Willow 99688..........................2.........0.4%

Yakutat 99689.........................1.........0.3%

Unalaska 99692........................2.........0.5%

Houston 99694.........................1.........0.2%

Fairbanks 99701......................11.........2.7%

Eielson 99702.........................0.........0.0%

Ft. Wainwright 99703..................0.........0.0%

Clear 99704...........................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99705.......................8.........1.9%

Fairbanks 99706.......................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99707.......................2.........0.4%

Fairbanks 99708.......................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99709......................12.........2.9%

Fairbanks 99710.......................2.........0.6%

Fairbanks 99711.......................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99712.......................6.........1.5%

Fairbanks 99713.......................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99714.......................2.........0.5%

Fairbanks 99715.......................0.........0.0%

Fairbanks 99716.......................2.........0.6%

Barrow 99723..........................2.........0.5%

Easter 99725..........................0.........0.0%

Cantwell 99729........................0.........0.0%

Delta Junction 99737..................4.........0.9%


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THE MARITAL AND GENDER VARIABLES

MARITAL BY GENDER FREQUENCY PERCENT

Married Males......................116........28.8%

Married Females....................116........28.8%

Single Males........................86........21.2%

Single Females......................86........21.2%

This completes the survey. Thank you for helping us -- goodbye.

ak-sen, ak-gov hellenthal & associates (oct. 2014)

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