airbus military market overview 2012
DESCRIPTION
Airbus Military Market Overview 2012These slides were presented during the Trade Media 2012 event held at Madrid, Spain and Toulouse, France in May 2012.In this presentation, Antonio Rodriguez Barberan, SVP Commercial, provided an overview. The core point is the extensive reach of the company due to the legacy products and the coming into service of the A330 tanker and the A400M.There are approximately 6300 aircraft currently in service of an average age of 27 years. And the AM products represent 10% of the current global inventory.Aircraft have been sold to 136 customers worldwide in 65 countries.AM has a 47% market share of the light and medium transport and ISR market. It will have 33% of the heavy lifter market with the A400M and will have 78% of the global market for tankers, excluding the U.S.TRANSCRIPT
Market Overview and Commercial Update
May 2012
Presented by
Antonio Rodriguez Barberán, SVP Commercial
The Market in which we compete
1,060 a/c 1,780 a/c
498 a/c
424 a/c
975 a/c
819 a/c 247 a/c
285 a/c
234 a/c
NOTE: Light & Medium; up to 12t of Max.Pyld. Heavy; +12t of Max.Pyld. Tankers; +50t of Fuel Capacity (KC-46 excluded).
L&M AIRCRAFT
~3,200 a/c
Av. Age 24y
AERIAL TANKERS
~635 a/c Av. Age 44y
HEAVY AIRCRAFT
~2,450 a/c Av. Age 26y
Total fleet: 6,300 a/c in service
Average Age: 27 years
(AM products represent 10% of the world fleet)
Airbus Military - Total Sales to 1Q2012
80 North America 2 A310MRTT
27 CN235
51 C212
2 Countries
23 Customers
140 Latin America 29 C295
20 CN235
91 C212
16 Countries
27 Customers
50 Africa (Sub.) 2 C295
6 CN235
42 C212
11 Countries
14 Customers
56 MENA 9 A330MRTT
14 C295
25 CN235
8 C212
9 Countries
9 Customers
247 Asia & Pacific 5 A330MRTT
4 A400M
9 C295
74 CN235
145 C212
11 Countries
30 Customers
499 Europe 4 A330MRTT
14A310MRTT
170 A400M
46 C295
125 CN235
140 C212
16 Countries
33 Customers
1060 a/c sold to 136 customers in 65 countries
Annual sales for the last 30 years
Competition sales 2001-2011
Airbus Military sales 2001-2011
Market Share
Airbus Military global market presence
Interoperability and supportability
backed by global presence and 30 years of experience
1060 Aircraft sold*
65 countries
136 operators
4,2 million FHs
(*) 14 C295 aircraft sold so far in 2012. One new country customer (Kazakhstan)
Past and new requirements
Global Demand
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Humanitarian needs
Rapid response to Natural Disasters
International conflicts
Oil Spill Response
Drug traffic Control
Immigrants Control
Support to Multilateral Peace Operations
Anti-piracy missions
SAR missions
The world is changing
C-17
C-27J
C-130
DHC-8
ATR-42
KC-767 KC-135
G-222
DHC-4
Ta
nke
rs
Lig
ht
& M
ed
ium
H
ea
vy
60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s
A330 MRTT
A400M
CN235 C295
Past and new requirements (Cont.)
NEW SCENARIO Humanitarian Needs
New asymmetric threats
Rapid response
PAST SCENARIO Cold war era
Bipolar World
Mainly Military Missions
Requirements for new, more versatile products
Military Operations
Military operations performed by the Armed Forces have increased
over recent years:
Global Reach
Deployment in hostile areas - front line support
Logistic and training transport missions
Longer time required on Air to Air Refueling military missions
ISR missions over the theater of operations
2003 Iraq
2011 Libya
2009 Sudan
2001 Afghanistan
Source: Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK)
Increased activity during recent years
1982
5704
6891
4428 7982
1551
1394
Search and Rescue (SAR) Missions
More than 30,000 persons rescued during 1982 – 2010 In 2010 alone, 12,338 persons were rescued in 641 SAR events
Source: CospasSARSAT Data 2010
Increasing global assistance need
Natural Disasters
Over the past decade, more than 2 billion people have been affected by natural disasters. On average, 62,000 lives were lost per year.
Source: Munich RE-NatCatSERVICE 2010-2011 Main Natural disasters/ International Committee of the Red Cross
Rapid response is a must
Geophysical events
(i.e.earthquake)
Meteorological events
(i.e.storm)
Hydrological events
(i.e.floods)
Climatological events
(i.e.wildfire)
Oil Spills
Approximately 5.71 million tonnes of oil were lost as a
result of tanker incidents from 1970 to 2010.
Source: ITOPF Oil Tanker Spill Statistics 1970-2010. Main oil spills events >7 tonnes.
A growing environmental concern worldwide
Drug traffic control
Global opium production has grown by a
factor of 7 during the last three decades
New
routes
Route
growth
Global cocaine production has grown by a
factor of 6 during the last three decades.
Global cocaine traffic
Source: UNODC World Drug Report 2009
The Northern Route The Balkan
Route
The Southern Route
Global opium traffic
A never ending story
Tracking immigrant movements
Source: UNODC The Globalization of Crime 2010
Main routes for African irregular migrants to US & Europe
An issue worldwide. Current examples: US border and the
Mediterranean area
Africa to Europe:
On average 55,000 irregular immigrants per year
Latin America to US:
Around 300,000 in 2011
50
150
250
350
Multilateral Peace Operations
Personnel deployed to peace operations
(Thousands)
In 2010, nine organizations were involved in 52 operations with a personnel of
some 263,000. More than 90% of these were from NATO and the UN
Source: SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations 2010
Four-fifths of peace operation personnel are deployed to Africa and Asia
Rising trend
Rising new missions worldwide
Piracy Attacks
More than 435 attacks during 2011. Somalia: the most affected region.
50 South Asia
237 Indian Ocean, Red Sea and
Gulf of Aden
Source: Chamber of Commerce, International Maritime Bureau, Piracy Reporting Center
*Each dot
represents a
piracy or
armed robbery
incident during
2010
38 West Africa
80 South-East Asia
34 South and Central
America
A growing asymmetric threat
2011 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009
Military Expenditure in 2011
Source; SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute . US$ (current prices 2011)
* Data not available for some CIS countries
US$ 82 Bn
US$ 73Bn
US$ 145 Bn
US$ 327Bn
US$ 163 Bn US$ 49Bn
US$ 20 Bn
US$ 143 Bn
US$ 736 Bn
World military expenditure
stopped growing
Total 2011:
US$ 1,738bn (+0.3% vs 2010)
USA
UK Russia
China SaudiA.
Jap Fr
Ger India
Bra
Very uneven budget growth in recent years
Source; SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
* Data not available for some CIS countries
US$ 82 Bn
US$ 73Bn
US$ 145 Bn
US$ 327Bn
US$ 163 Bn US$ 49Bn
US$ 20 Bn
US$ 143 Bn
US$ 736 Bn
A few big spenders
compensate for the
budget stagnation in
Europe and Japan
Top 10 Military spenders - % variation 2002-2011
59
79
18
-0,6 -2,5
90
59
-3,7
19
42
-20
0
20
40
60
80
USA China Russia UK France Japan Saudi Arabia
Germany India Brazil World %v
ari
ati
on
2002
-2011
170
• US DoD just issued its
planned $487B budget
reduction over 10 years
• Main programs
affected: C-27Js JCA;
C-5;C-130,RQ-4 Global
Hawk…
• Australia: minus $5.5B
in next four years
Mid-term Budgets forecast
4,1 4,0
1,5
-2,4
4,0 2,8
3,9 4,0
2,6 3,2
0,5
2,2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013*
Global GDP growth, %
History
Optimistic
• The global economic prospects for
2012 and 2013 are pessimistic, and
only supported by the developing
economies
Defense procurement will keep growing only in specific regions and countries
CAGR
2016-2011 4.0% 2.9% 3.9% 13.9% 3.3% -1.1% 0.5%
1.4% world avg
0
1000
2000
3000
2001 2010 2013
US
$ B
n
AM product range
to answer today’s and
tomorrow’s needs
• Versatility
• Effectiveness
• Efficiency
Traditionally military operations conducted
by military bodies of each country
Additional needs will promote our products beyond pure military applications
New missions involving new
customers such as
governmental agencies
Sources: SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute April 2011/ Airbus Military
Forecast
GAP $Bn
2011 2014 2001
A requirement for more versatile products
New aircraft demand will average ~80 per year
0
500
1000
1500
Ne
w S
ale
s (
a/c
)New aircraft demand until 2040
% units 52% 33% 15%
% value 20% 43% 37%
NOTE: Light & Medium 4-12t of Max. Payload and Medium Range M.Surveillance/ Heavy 25-50t of Max. Payload/ Tankers +50t of Fuel Capacity.
(*) Possible future US KC-Y & KC-Z competitions are included
Light and Medium
Airlifters and
Surveillance Aircraft
Heavy
Airlifters
Strategic Aerial
Tankers*
Potential Market over the next 30 years
Light and Medium
Aircraft ~ 1250 a/c
~ 350* a/c
Heavy
Aircraft ~ 800 a/c
Tanker/MRTT
Aircraft
New Aircraft Sales
NOTE: Light & Medium Segment 4-12t of Max.Payload/ Heavy Segment 25-50t of Max.Payload/ MRTT-Tanker Segment +50t of Fuel Capacity.
(*) Possible future US KC-Y & KC-Z competitions are included
Market Value: ~ $240Bn
In summary…
• The military market for Transport, Mission aircraft and Tankers is
a very irregular one, with plenty of up and downs
• Shrinking military budgets are becoming the norm, except for
specific countries and regions
• However, civil and humanitarian missions are spreading more and
more
• In this context, the most versatile aircraft have the best chances to
obtain market success
• Our products are market leaders in their corresponding categories
• Airbus Military is firmly committed to keep its leading position for
many years
Page 27
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