agricultural water management - the key to food security in a changing world

Download Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World

Post on 09-May-2015

2.487 views

Category:

Education

3 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World - David Molden, Deputy Director General, International Water Management Institute

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1.Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World
    David Molden
    International Water Management Institute

2. Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the worlds population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007
3. Drivers of Water Use
Other Water Pressures
Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025
Agriculture Water fuels production increases
Population & Diet food grain production projected to increase by 100% by 2050
Energy Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land
Climate Change Shifting patterns of water availability potential yields decline in Africa
4. Limits Reached or Breached
River basins closed Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya no additional water left
Groundwater overdraft in agricultural breadbaskets
Fisheries ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
Livestock limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
5. ASIA:High Numbers of Poor, AFRICA: High Percentage Poor
1.7M poor, 960M undernourished people (12/2008, FAO)
6. Policy Concerns
Food self-sufficiency increase food production to meet growing population needs (need more water)
Save water from agriculture to meet needs of growing cities and environment (less water for ag)
Water to fight poverty (more water)
IS THERE ENOUGH WATER?
7. Will there be enough water?
8. Will there be enough water?
More People 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More people 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production need to double grain production by 2050
More water for food if practices dont change, water needs double
Something has to change
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production need to double grain production by 2050
More water for food if practices dont change, double water needs
This equation doesnt work something has to change
9. Water Use Today and 2050
Today
2050
No Water
Productivity Gains
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Without Water Productivity Gains,
Crop ET doubles by 2050
10. Climate Change
11. Some areas will be wetter, others drier, more rainfall variability, all hotter
Source: Arnell, 2003.
12. Water Scarcity and Climate Change
Some areas wetter, some areas drier
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.
13. Climate Change, Water, Agriculture3 Critical Concerns
Glacial Snowmelt Himalayas, Andes, African Highlands
Rising Sea Levels - River delta systems
Mekong, Egypts Nile Delta
Climate Variability across
sub-Saharan Africa
14. Water implications of mitigation measures?
Biofuels
Afforestation
15. Water Management
Solutions
Olivia Molden
16. Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands
Invest in rainfed agriculture
Invest in irrigation
Improve productivity of existing systems
Expand irrigation
Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions
Manage demand, consume and waste less
17. Consider the Full Range of Agricultural Water Management Options
Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
18. 1. Water to Fight Poverty what is potential?
19. Where are the rural poor in SSA ?
Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty
20. Poverty reduction potential of AWM solutions across livelihood zones
Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty
21. Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions?
This Project (Gates funded Ag Water Management Solutions):
65M rural poor livelihoods improved in 15 years
22. 2. Transform water governance
Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and ecosystem degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings
Water availability has changed, but our actions have not
No blueprints - need to craft local solutions
23. 24. Form Coalitions
Emerging interest of private sector
Important to trigger policy change
25. 6150
7,000
4729
6,000
5,000
3255
4,000
2486
3,000
1406
1287
2,000
746
1,000
43
4
0
China
Laos
Brazil
South
Africa
Kenya
Ethiopia
North
Thailand
America
Australia
Water storage mitigates variability
3. Water Storage a safeguard against climate variability
But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater groundwater banking and soil moisture.
And beyond: insurance, local trade
Cubic meters per capita
Source: World Bank data from ICOLD
26. MAKING STORAGE SMARTER storage continuum
ACCESS
SURFACE
SUBSURFACE
Increasing capital costs
Increasing complexity of management
Increasing environmental and social cost
Reservoirs
large
small
Ponds and Tanks
Boreholes,
deep /shallow
wells
Aquifers
deep
shallow
Soil Moisture
Natural wetlands
Increasing resilience
Increasing resilience
Dam outlets,
pumps,
off-take towers
Direct,
Buckets, pumps
Planting crops
All of the above
27. 4. Manage Water Demand
Reducing withdrawals mitigates half of Indias irrigation is from groundwater requiring pumps
Put in place innovative incentives, allocation, pricing policies to curtail water demands
Food waste is water waste
28. 5. Grow more food per unit of water
29. Increase Water Productivity
Physical Water Productivity more crop per drop

  • Reduces water needs

Range shows that there is considerable scope for improvement

  • Wheat 500 to 2000 liters/kg

30. Beef 5000 to 20000 liters/kgIPCC crop yields in SSA could decline by 50%, but
Comprehensive Assessment says could more than double with investment and management
31. Number of publications related to water productivity from 1990 to 2007
(The result is from Google Scholar search using fixed term water productivity )
32. Opportunities in RainfedAgriculture
Largest opportunities to build resilience and improve water productivityare in rainfed landscapes low water productivity, high poverty
Technology
water harvesting, supplemental irrigation
Field water conservation to reduce nonproductive evaporation
Improved nutrients
Drought resistance varieties
Expand Policiesto includeupgrading rainfedsystems
33. Asia needs to feed an extra 1.5 billion people by 2050, with food needs projected to double.
Cannot rely on rainfed alone
Asia contains 70% of the worlds irrigated area
Important to do it right for:

  • Climate change

34. Food security 35. EnvironmentLarge scope to improve
Performance
Water productivity variations
36. It wont be easy
Adoption rates are low water productivity not necessarily a farmer concern, markets may not be in place, need to understand political-economy of water useScale effects- Farm water productivity gains can increase basin depletion, not save water
Need to understand tradeoffsand align incentivesof different actors by a variety of means (economic incentives, allocation)
37. Water Use Today and 2050
Today
No Water
Productivity Gains
2050
CA Scenario
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can further reduce water needs
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
38. Summary - Water Agenda
Change national perceptions
Water access and productivity high poverty reduction potential
Transform water governance
Data, monitoring, modeling and feedback to support adaptive management
Rethink water storage (eg groundwater banking)
Manage water demand
Grow more food per unit of water
Revitalize irrigation, upgrade rainfed agriculture

Recommended

View more >