agricultural adaptation to climate change: acknowledging different frames. lauren rickards
DESCRIPTION
Presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Brisbane, Australia.TRANSCRIPT
Agricultural adaptation to climate change:Acknowledging different frames
Lauren Rickards, University of Melbourne
Co-authors: Peter Hayman, Richard Eckard
Ambiguity about CC adaptation and
the importance of framing
Three example issues
1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic
CC & natural CV
2. How adaptation success is defined
3. The relevance of different forms of
knowledge
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
Ambiguity about CC adaptation and
the importance of framing
Three example issues
1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic
CC & natural CV
2. How adaptation success is defined
3. The relevance of different forms of
knowledge
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
Adaptation is a continuous process of:
1. Signal detection
2. Evaluation of relative risks
3. Decision whether and how to act
4. Implementation of decision
5. Detection of relevant feedback
6. Re-evaluation of strategy
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION
Each step involves framing and barriers
‘[Climate change] adaptation involves
changes in social-ecological systems in
response to actual and expected impacts of
climate change in the context of interacting
non-climatic changes’.
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATIONMoser S. & Ekstrom, J. (2010)‘A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation’,PNAS 107(51): 22026-22031
‘Adaptation strategies and actions can range
from short-term coping to longer-term,
deeper transformations, aim to meet more
than climate change goals alone, and may or
may not succeed in moderating harm or
exploiting beneficial opportunities’.
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATIONMoser S. & Ekstrom, J. (2010)‘A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation’,PNAS 107(51): 22026-22031
“Framing” shapes:• what is noticed
• what /whose knowledge is ‘relevant’
• what research is conducted and how
• what risks are privileged, measured, addressed
• what options are considered ‘plausible’
• what outcomes are ‘desirable’ or ‘realistic’
• ie how a problem is defined and tackled
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION
‘Inadequate consideration of underlying
influences’ results in poor problem
definition, which leads in turn to
‘problems being defined in terms of
symptoms rather than causes’ and
strategies and actions being formulated
which risk not only failing to solve the
problem but making it worse.
Cork, S. (2010)‘Resilience of social-ecological systems’In: Cork, S. (Ed)Resilience and Transformation: Preparing Australia for Uncertain Futures.CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION
‘Inadequate consideration of underlying
influences’ results in poor problem
definition, which leads in turn to
‘problems being defined in terms of
symptoms rather than causes’ and
strategies and actions being formulated
which risk not only failing to solve the
problem but making it worse.
Cork, S. (2010)‘Resilience of social-ecological systems’In: Cork, S. (Ed)Resilience and Transformation: Preparing Australia for Uncertain Futures.CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION
ie. Maladaptation
Ambiguity about CC adaptation
Importance of framing
Three example issues
1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic
CC & natural climate variability
2. How adaptation success is defined
3. The relevance of different forms of
knowledge
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
CC is seen as: a problem for the distant
future, difficult to detect, complex to
understand, clouded by uncertainty
and controversy…
Relative to immediate climate
extremes and other pressing issues, it
doesn’t rate
ANTHROPOGENIC CC vs. NATURAL CV
‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CC
All other pressures
Climate variability
Climate change
B - An experiential interpretation: Climate change as signal
Global, long term climate change
Climate variability
All other pressures
A - A scalar interpretation: Climate change as envelope
12
All other pressures
Climate variability
Climate change
B - An experiential interpretation: Climate change as signal
Global, long term climate change
Climate variability
All other pressures
A - A scalar interpretation: Climate change as envelope
13
‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CC
Focus on future exposure to climate impacts
Focus on current vulnerabilityto all risks
All other pressures
Climate variability
Climate change
B - An experiential interpretation: Climate change as signal
Global, long term climate change
Climate variability
All other pressures
A - A scalar interpretation: Climate change as envelope
14
‘Scalar’ and ‘experiential’ perspectives of CC
Risk: overlooking constraints onadaptive capacity and ongoing role of CV
Risk: overlooking need for majorand anticipatory change
How we respond to climate extremes
and variability influences/represents our
response to CC
Positive influence: adaptive capacity
Negative influence: negative resilience
ANTHROPOGENIC CC vs. NATURAL CV
Source: US National Drought Mitigation Centre, http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/cycle.htm
The vexed issue of disaster response
Photo from Andrew Campbell
Ambiguity about CC adaptation
Importance of framing
Three example issues
1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic
CC & natural CV
2. How adaptation success is defined
3. The relevance of different forms of
knowledge
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
If adaptation is about ‘persistence
through change’…
• What do we want to persist?
• What do we want, or are we willing,
to change? And what will we be
forced to change?
Forced change = less
options
HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED?
Rickards, L. and Howden, M. (under review) ‘Transformational adaptation’Crop and Pasture Science
Source: Howden S.M., Soussana J.F., Tubiello F.N., Chhetri N., Dunlop M., Meinke H. (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104:19691-19696
Irrespective of climate change, do we
need to change?
Current adaptation deficits
are substantial
HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED?
Successful adaptation along a particular pathway of development may at the same time decrease resilience, and eventually lead to crisis.
Adger et al 2009
Sustainable adaptation
Equitable adaptation
Revolutionary adaptation
CC as a catalyst for addressing a host
of existing issues and legitimating a
step change in how we farm
HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED?
Sounds good
… but what is the cost of change and
who is going to bear it?
Adaptation is costly
Transformational adaptation is
especially costly and risky
HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED? HOW IS SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION DEFINED?
The coping cascade: erosion of capitalBased on Pelling (2011), Nelson et al (2007) and BCG (2008)
Expend savings and accrue debt
Erode/sell non-productive goods
Erode/sell productive goods
Enter into high-risk livelihoods
Absorb stress andextra work
Reduce short-termsocial expenditure:Eg. socializing
Withdraw long-termsocial investments:Eg. education
Break up social units: selective migration (temporary, Permanent)
“Destitution And HouseholdCollapse”
Do not replenish or repairnatural capital
Actively substitutenatural capital for financial capital
Rely on but devaluenatural capital
Natural
Human and social Financial and physical
26
Accept negative long-term effects
Attempt to address long-term effects
Transformational improvement of existing activities
& structures
Adaptation: A Coping-Transformation Continuum
Negative change
Incremental change
Transformational change
Short-term survival Long-term adaptation
No change
Maintenance ofexisting activities & structures
Erosion ofexisting activities & structures
Decline 27
Ambiguity about CC adaptation
Importance of framing
Three example issues
1. The relationship b/w anthropogenic
CC & natural CV
2. How adaptation success is defined
3. The relevance of different forms of
knowledge
Conclusions
OVERVIEW
Double edged epistemological sword
CC = radically new future
= past experience no longer
relevant?
But uncertainty also inherent to
scientific knowledge of future under
climate change
FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE
Challenge to local farmer
knowledge
- Familiar territory…
- Reinforcement of value of
scientific learning for farmers
- ‘Climate literacy’
- Suits current paradigms
FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE
But narrow interpretation of farmers’
understanding of past climate
Main lesson = climate is variable
The future is uncertain
Perhaps some cognitive adaptation
occurring in this emphasis
FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE
We just live in a variable climate. No two years are ever the same. I haven't seen two years the same ever since I started farming
It’s just the history of this area that there’s extreme drys and there’s extreme wets and there’s not really that much in the middle
We’ve had 100 years of extremes. There’s no such thing as average. It would be a nice thing if it was.
From: Rickards, L. (forthcoming) ‘Critical Breaking Point? The effects of climate variability, climate change and other pressures on farming families’. Report for Birchip Cropping Group
Need humility on both sides
Work together
Temper concept of expertise
Adaptation is about social learning
FARMER EXPERIENCE vs. SCIENCE
What is adaptation?
Adaptation to what?
By whom?
In which way?
Over what time scale?
To what desired end?
To what actual end?
At what cost?
AMBIGUITY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPATION
Not straight forward!
