aggregate demand and aggregate supply third editioneconomics and macroeconomics macroeconomics paul...
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Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
THIRD EDITION
ECONOMICSand
MACROECONOMICSPaul Krugman | Robin Wells
محمد باقر اسماعيليمشاور استراتژي و اقتصاد بنگاه
Aggregate Demandتقاضاي کل
aggregate demand curveمنحني تقاضاي کل •نشان دهنده روابط ما بين سطح قيمت کل و مقدار
کل بازده تقاضا شده توسط خانوارها، کسب و کارها، دولت و مابقي دنيا مي باشد.
7.91933
0 716Real GDP
(billions of 2005 dollars)
Aggregate pricelevel
(GDP deflator,2005 = 100)
Aggregate demand curve, AD
A movement down theAD curve leads to a loweraggregate price level andhigher aggregate output.
1000
4.2
The Aggregate Demand Curve
Y1
E1
AEPlanned
AEPlanned1
Plannedaggregat
espending
45-degree line
Real GDPY2
E2
AEPlanned
AEPlanned
2
The Aggregate Demand Curve and the Income-Expenditure Model
The Aggregate Demand Curve and the Income-Expenditure Model
(a) Change in Income-Expenditure
Equilibrium
(b) Aggregate Demand
Planned Aggregate Spending
Aggregate Price Level
45-degree line
AEPlanned1
E2
E1
AEPlanned2
AD
P1
P2
Y1 Y2
Real GDP
Real GDP
Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve انتقال منحني
تقاضاي کل
منحني تقاضاي کل منتقل مي شود، بدليل• تغيير در انتظارات ثروت ذخيره سرمايه فيزيکي سياستهاي دولت
سياستهاي مالي سياست هاي پولي
AD1AD1 AD2AD2
Real GDP Real GDP
Aggregate price level
(a) Rightward Shift (b) Leftward Shift
Aggregate price level
Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve
Increase in aggregate demand
Decrease in aggregate demand
نشان aggregate supply curveمنحني عرضه کل •دهنده رابطه ميان سطح قيمت کل و مقدار بازده
کل در اقتصاد مي باشد.
Aggregate Supply
0 976 Real GDP (billions of 2005
dollars)
Aggregate pricelevel
(GDP deflator,2005 = 100) Short-run aggregate
supply curve, SRAS
10.61929
7.91933
716
A movement downthe SRAS curve
leadsto deflation and
loweraggregate output.
The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Aggregate
price level
Real GDP
SRAS2
Decrease in short-run
aggregate supply
Increase in short-run aggregate
supply
(a) Leftward Shift (b) Rightward Shift
SRAS1SRAS
1 SRAS 2
Shifts of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
Shifts of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
تغيير در قيمت اجناس دستمزدهاي اسمي بهره وري
منجر به تغييرات در سود توليد کنندگان و انتقال منحني •عرضه کل کوتاه مدت مي شود.
long-run aggregate supplyمنحني عرضه کل بلند مدت •curve نشان دهنده رابطه مابين سطح قيمت کل و مقدار
بازده عرضه شده مي باشد، اگر همه قيمتها از جمله دستمزد اسمي بطور کامل انعطاف پذير بودند.
Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
15.0
0 $800Real GDP
(billions of 2005 dollars)
Aggregate pricelevel
(GDP deflator,2005 = 100)
Potentialoutput,
YP
Long-run aggregatesupply curve, LRAS
7.5
A fall in theaggregate
price level…
…leaves the quantity
of aggregate output
supplied unchanged
in the long run.
Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
Actual and Potential Output
Y1YP
P1
LRAS
SRAS1
Y1 YP
P1
SRAS1LRAS
A1
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
SRAS2
A rise in nominal
wages shifts SRAS leftward.
SRAS2
A fall in nominal
wages shifts SRAS
rightward.
(a) Leftward Shift of the Short-Run
Aggregate Supply Curve
(b) Rightward Shift of the Short-Run
Aggregate Supply Curve
A1
From the Short Run to the Long Run
The AS–AD Model
با يکديگر براي تجزيه و AS-AD modelمنحني عرضه و تقاضاي کل •تحليل نوسانات اقتصادي بکار برده مي شود.
زماني که مقدار بازده کل عرضه شده برابر با مقدار تقاضا • short-run macroeconomicشده باشد اقتصاد در تعادل کوتاه مدت
equilibrium .مي باشد
short-run equilibrium aggregateسطح قيمت تعادلي کوتاه مدت کل •price level عبارتست از سطح قيمت کل در تعادل کوتاه مدت
اقتصاد کالن
Short-run equilibrium aggregate outputبازده تعادلي کوتاه مدت کل •عبارتست از مقدار بازده کل توليد شده در تعادل کوتاه مدت
اقتصاد کالن
YE
PE E
SR
SRAS
AD
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Short-run macroeconomic equilibrium
The AS–AD Model
Y2
2P2
AD2
A negative demand shock...
Y1
E1
E
AD1
Y1
2
E1
AD1
P1
P1
Real GDP
Aggregate
price level
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
...leads to a lower aggregate price level and lower
aggregate output.
...leads to a higher
aggregate pricelevel and higher
aggregate output.
(a) A Negative Demand Shock (b) A Positive Demand Shock
EP2
Y2
AD2
A positive demand shock...
Shifts of Aggregate Demand: Short-Run Effects
SRAS SRAS
P1
AD
Y1
E1
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
(a) A Negative Supply Shock
Shifts of the SRAS Curve
SRAS 1SRAS
Y2
2E
P2
2
Y1
1
AD
E 2
E
SRAS
P1
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
(b) A Positive Supply Shock
P2
Y2
SRAS 21
A negative supply shock...
...leads to a lower
aggregate output and a
higher aggregate price level.
...leads to a higher
aggregate output and
lower aggregate price level.
A positive supply shock...
Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium
long-runزماني که نقطه تعادل کوتاه مدت •macroeconomic equilibrium اقتصاد کالن بر روي منحني
بلند مدت عرضه کل باشد، اقتصاد در تعادل بلندمدت مي باشد.
YP
PE
SRAS
LRAS
AD
ELR
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Long-run macroeconomic
equilibrium
Potential output
Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Y1
P E1
2
SRAS1LRAS
AD1
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Potentialoutput
E3P3
SRAS2
3. …until an eventualfall in nominal wages
in the long run increasesshort-run aggregate supply
and moves the economyback to potential output.
2
2. …reduces the aggregate price level and aggregate output and leads to higher unemployment in the short
run…
AD2
Recessionary gap
Y2
E
1. An initialnegativedemand shock…
1
P
Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Negative Demand Shock
Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Negative Demand Shock
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
LRAS
Y1 Potential output
AD1
SRAS1
E1P1
AD2
E2
E3
P2
P3
Y2
SRAS2
1. Originally the economy is at E1.
2. A negative demand shock shifts the AD curve to the left, …
3. … reducing both the aggregate price level and
aggregate output and leading to higher
unemployment in the short run.
Recessionary gap
4. Eventually in the long run, the fall in nominal
wages increases the SRAS curve and moves the economy back to
potential output.
Y1
P3
E3
E1
P1
P
SRAS1
LRAS
AD
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
Potential
output
SRAS2
3. …until an eventual rise in nominal wages in the long run reduces short-run aggregate
supply and moves the economy back to potential output.
AD2
1. An initial positive demand shock…
Inflationary gap
Y2
2 E22. …increases the
aggregate price leveland aggregate output
and reduces unemployment
in the short run…1
Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Positive Demand Shock
Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Positive Demand Shock
Real GDP
Aggregate price level
LRAS
Y1Potential output
AD2
SRAS2
E3P3
AD1
E2
E1
P2
P1
Y2
SRAS1
1. Originally the economy is at E1.
2. A positive demand shock shifts the AD
curve to the right, …
3. … raising both the aggregate price level and
aggregate output and leading to lower
unemployment in the short run.
Inflationary gap
4. Eventually in the long run, the rise in nominal wages decreases the SRAS curve
and moves the economy back to potential output.
Gap Recap
زماني که بازده کل زير بازده بالقوه باشد، شكاف رکودي •recessionary gap.وجود دارد
زماني که بازده کل باالي بازده بالقوه باشد شكاف تورمي •inflationary gap.وجود دارد
درصد تفاوت مابين بازده کل واقعي و بازده بالقوه را شكاف • گويند.output gapبازده
Gap Recap
زماني که شوک هاي تقاضاي کل بر روي بازده در کوتاه •مدت اثر مي گذارند -و نه در بلند مدت- اقتصاد خود اصالح
self-correcting .مي باشد
Negative Supply Shocks
معرفي Negative supply shocksشوک هاي منفي عرضه •کننده يک سياست معما گونه است که : سياستي که مدعي است ، تثبيت بازده کل از طريق افزايش تقاضاي کل منجر
به تورم خواهد شد، و سياست تثبيت قيمت از طريق کاهش output slumpتقاضاي کل منجر به کاهش عميقتر بازده
خواهد شد.
Fiscal Policy
THIRD EDITION
ECONOMICSand
MACROECONOMICSPaul Krugman | Robin Wells
Government Spending and Tax RevenueGovernment Spending and Tax Revenue for Some High-Income Countries in 2007
Sources of Tax Revenue in the United States, 2007
Government Spending in the United States, 2007
Social insurance programs are government programs
intended to protect families against economic hardship.
The Government Budget and Total Spending
شامل كاربرد ماليات، هزينه هاي Fiscal policyسياست مالي انتقالي دولت يا خريد كاالها و خدمات توسط دولت مي باشد
كه باعث انتقال منحني تقاضاي كل مي شود.
Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy
سياست مالي انبساطي مي تواند شكاف ركودي را از بين ببرد.
Expansionary fiscal policy increases
aggregate demand.
Recessionary gap
Potential output
Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy
سياست مالي انقباضي مي تواند شكاف تورمي را از بين ببرد.
Contractionary fiscal policy reduces
aggregate demand.
Inflationary gap
Potential output
Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier
اندازه انتقال منحني تقاضا به نوع سياست مالي بستگي •دارد.
تغيير در خريد هاي دولت اثر قدرتمندتري بر روي تغييرات هم •اندازه در ماليات و هزينه ها ي انتقالي دارد.
• The multiplier on changes in government purchases, 1/(1 − MPC), is larger than the multiplier on changes in taxes or transfers, MPC/(1 − MPC), because part of any change in taxes or transfers is absorbed by savings.
Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier
Multiplier Effects of Changes in Taxes and Government Transfers
Hypothetical Effects of a Fiscal Policy with Multiplier of 2
Multiplier Effects of Changes in Taxes and Government Transfers
Lump-sum taxes are taxes that don’t depend on the taxpayer’s income.
The Budget Balanceكسري بودجه بعنوان درصدي از توليد ناخالص داخلي در طي
دوره ركود تمايل به افزايش داشته و در طي دوره رونق تمايل .به كاهش دارد
The Budget Balance
The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP moves closely in tandem with the unemployment rate.
Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve System
THIRD EDITION
ECONOMICSand
MACROECONOMICSPaul Krugman | Robin Wells
The U.S. Money Supplies
•The Money Pyramid
The Money Multiplier in Reality
مجموع پول در گردش و ذخيره monetary base پايه پولي•قانوني مي باشد.
نسبت عرضه پول به پايه money multiplierضريب پولي •پول مي باشد.
44 of 18
How the Fed Controls the Money Supply
سه ابزاري كه بانك مركزي براي كنترل عرضه پول •استفاده مي نمايد:
عمليات بازار آزاد1.
ذخيره قانوني2.
نرخ تنزيل3.
Monetary Policy
THIRD EDITION
ECONOMICSand
MACROECONOMICSPaul Krugman | Robin Wells
The Money Demand CurveInterest rate, r
Quantity of money
Money demand curve, MD
منحني تقاضاي پول روابط بين مقدار •پول تقاضا شده و نرخ بهره را نشان مي
دهد.
Increases and Decreases in the Demand for Money
A fall in money demand shifts the money demand
curve to the left..
A rise in money demand
shifts the money demand
curve to the right.
Money and Interest Rates
liquidity preference modelبر طبق مدل رجحان نقدينگي •نرخ بهره، نرخ بهره از طريق عرضه و تقاضاي پول تعيين مي
شود.
نشان مي دهد كه money supply curve منحني عرضه پول•چگونه مقدار پول عرضه شده در نرخ هاي بهره مختلف
متفاوت مي باشد.
M
rH
rE
rL
L
E
MD
MH
ML
H
Quantity of money
Interestrate, r
Equilibrium interest
rate
Money supplycurve, MS
Equilibrium
Money supplychosen by the Fed
Equilibrium in the Money Market
1
M2
E2
MS2
An increasein the money
supply . . .
r1
E
MS1
MD
M1
Quantity of money
Interest
rate, r
r2
. . . leads to
a fall in theinterest
rate.
The Effect of an Increase in the Money Supply on the Interest Rate
Setting the Federal Funds Rate
Pushing the Interest Rate Down to the Target Rate
The target federal funds rate is the Federal Reserve’s desired federal funds rate.
M
r1
r
E1
MS1
MD
M1 Quantity of money
Interest
rate, r
E2
2
MS2
An open-market
purchase . . .
T
. . . drives the interest rate down.
Setting the Federal Funds Rate
Pushing the Interest Rate Up to the Target Rate
M1
r1
E1
E
MD
MS1
Quantity of money
Interest
rate, r
2
MS2
M 2
An open-marketsale . . .
rT. . . drives
the interest rate up.
Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand
سياست پولي انبساطي Expansionary monetary policy يك نوع سياست پولي مي باشد كه باعث افزايش تقاضاي كل
مي شود.
سياست پولي انقباضي Contractionary monetary policy يك نوع سياست پولي مي باشد كه باعث كاهش تقاضاي كل
مي شود.
Expansionary and Contractionary Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand
AD1AD
1AD
2AD
3
Real GDP Real GDP
Aggregate price level
(a) Expansionary Monetary Policy(b) Contractionary Monetary Policy
Aggregate price level
Tracking Monetary Policy
Money, Output, and Prices in the Long Run
SR
SRAS1
LRAS
Y1
E3
E1P1
Aggregate
price level
Real GDP
Potential output
AS2
P3 . . . but the eventualrise in nominal wages
leads to a fall inshort-run aggregate
supply and aggregateoutput falls back to
potential output.
Y2
E2P2
AD2
An increase in themoney supply
reducesthe interest rate andincreases aggregate
demand . . .
AD1
The Long-Run Determination of the Interest Rate
Quantity of money
r1
MD1
MS1
M1
E3
E1
Interestrate, r
r2
E2
MS2
M2
An increase in the money supply
lowers the interest rate in the short
run…
MD2
…but in the long run higherprices lead to greater
moneydemand, raising the
interestrate to its original level.
Inflation
THIRD EDITION
ECONOMICSand
MACROECONOMICSPaul Krugman | Robin Wells
Money and Prices
YP
P3
P1
E1
AD1
SR
SRAS1
LRAS
Aggregateprice level
Real GDPPotentia
loutput
Y1
P2
E2
AD2
E3
AS2
classical بر اساس مدل كالسيك سطح قيمت•model of the price level مقدار واقعي پول هميشه ،
در سطح تعادل بلند مدتش قرار مي گيرد.
Money Supply Growth and Inflation in Zimbabwe
Inflation and Wages in Europe and the United States
Stuckflation
The Logic of Hyperinflation
In 1923, Germany’s money was worth so little that children used stacks of banknotes as building blocks or built kites with them.
The Short-Run Phillips Curve
رابطه short-run Phillips curveمنحني كوتاه مدت فيليپس •منفي بين نرخ بيكاري و نرخ تورم را نشان مي دهد.
The Short-Run Phillips Curve
When the unemployment rate is low, inflation is high.
Inflation rate
0
When the unemployment rate is high, inflation is low.
Unemployment rate
The Short-Run Phillips Curve and Supply Shocks
0
SRPC0
Inflationrate
Unemployment rate
SRPC1
A negative supply
shock shiftsSRPC up.
SRPC2
A positive supply
shock shiftsSRPC down.
Inflation Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve
6%
5
4
3
2
1
0
–1
–2
–3
8%76543
SRPC0
Inflationrate
Unemployment rate
SRPC2
SRPC shifts up by the amount of the
increase in expected inflation.
Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run
• The nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU, is the unemployment rate at which inflation does not change over time.
• The long-run Phillips curve shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation after expectations of inflation have had time to adjust to experience.
• Disinflation is the process of bringing down inflation that is embedded in expectations.
The NAIRU and the Long-Run Phillips Curve
8%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
–1
–2
–3
8%76543
SRPC0
E0
Inflationrate
Unemployment rate
Nonaccelerating inflationrate of unemployment,
NAIRU
SRPC2
SRPC4E
2
E4
C
B
A
