after campaign 2016, can consumer advertisers learn anything from political campaigns?
TRANSCRIPT
NATIONAL MEDIA
2
After 2016, can consumer advertisers learn anything from
political campaigns?
Will FeltusSenior Vice President
National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLCAlexandria VA
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OVERVIEW
1. How Consumer Advertising and Political Advertising are Different
2. What They have in Common:The Political Consumers Model
3. Can Consumer and Political Advertisers Learn Anything from One Another in 2017?
5
Academic appearance by Trump TV buyer Ben Angle draws angry barbs from California college students as they enjoy a catered buffet dinner in D.C., February 2017.
“Ask Me How I’ve Ben
Affected byTrump’s Media”
“You Contributedto the
Disseminationof HATE”
“EVERYONEIs Welcome Here”
Trump Media Buyer Greeted by College Students
HOW THEY ARE DIFFERENT
Consumer and Political Advertising:
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PUBLIC SCRUTINY
Consumer campaigns take care to avoid potential negative reactions.
Low levels of public and news interest.
Political campaigns expect negative reactions (and love to be criticized by the losers.)
High levels of public and news interest.
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PURCHASE OPPORTUNITY
Consumer MarketersThe store or website will be open again tomorrow.
Political MarketersThe store is only open for one day (or a few weeks for absentee and early voting) then closed forever.
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TRACKING WHAT’S WORKING
Consumer Marketershave daily sales and customer level purchase data.
Political Marketershave a secret ballot problem.
10
MEASURING SUCCESS AND ROI
Consumer campaigns can be very profitable with single digit market shares.
Political campaigns ultimately fail if they are not #1 in their category.
11
PLANNING HORIZONS AND PRICING
Consumer campaigns can plan over multiple quarters with price negotiating leverage and audience guarantees. There’s always next quarter.
Spot costs and CPM’s are stable
Political campaigns have uncertain cash flows and are typically funded on a week-by-week basis. Must pay unpredictable market rates with cash upfront. No guarantees or makegoods on ratings.
Multi-tiered rate cards change constantly
12
POLITICAL MEDIA PLANNERS ALWAYS FACE RISING COSTS…
… and deal with a complicated and federally regulated sellside market.
• Political advertisers are constantly pre-empted by other political advertisers willing to pay more.
• The so-called candidate “lowest unit rate” is obtuse at the local market level, and available only 45 days prior to a primary and 60 days prior to a general election.
• Non-candidate ”Super Pac’s” are forced by TV and cable outlets to pay 3x-4x the candidate rate.
• There’s no confidentiality – all political ad orders must be publically disclosed.
WMUR’s presidential candidate rates up 200% in 11 months before New Hampshire primary.
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PUBLIC DISCLOSUREPolitical advertisers require their agencies to collect and evaluate competitive advertising intelligence on a daily basis.
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MESSAGING AND TRAFFIC
Political campaigns constantly create new ad content and want it up the same day.
From September to November, Clinton and her Democratic allies aired 137 spots. Trump and Republican allies aired 80.
CLINTON CAMPAIGN TRUMP CAMPAIGN
Positive 20 Positive 10
Contrast 25 Contrast 11
Negative 25 Negative 10
DEMOCRAT THIRD-PARTY REPUPLICAN THIRD-PARTY
Positive 2 Positive 4
Contrast 8 Contrast 9
Negative 58 Negative 36
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During June-August, Clinton and her allies spent an estimated $127 million on TV versus Trump and allies total of $24 million. Trump spend was only 18% of Clinton.
Gap narrowed in September-November when Trump spend was 69% of Clinton.
2016 PRESIDENTIAL AD SPENDING
Sept-Nov Estimated Gross Spend in Millions CLINTON CAMPAIGN CLINTON ALLIES CLINTON COMBINED TRUMP CAMPAIGN TRUMP ALLIES TRUMP COMBINEDTRUMP $$ AS A % OF CLINTON
Network Broadcast and Cable $52.0 26% $0 - $52.0 19% $34.6 25% $11.5 22% $46.1 24% 89%
Local Broadcast and Cable $150.0 74% $73.3 100% $223.3 81% $101.1 75% $41.9 78% $143.0 76% 64%
Total $202.0 100% $73.3 100% $275.3 100% $135.7 100% $53.4 100% $189.1 100% 69%
Remember: Each third-party allied dollar is worth only 1/3 – to – 1/4 of a candidate dollar.
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MANAGEMENT
Consumer campaigns are long term, and run by experienced brand managers and vice-presidents of advertising.
Political campaigns are short term organizations and don’t have vice-presidents of advertising.
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MANAGEMENT
Creative & Account
Mgt.
Media Buyer
The Client
Most political ad consultants/agencies still operate on the old school model.
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MANAGEMENTSome presidential and national party campaigns have used
separate media and creative teams.
Client
Creative & Account Mgt.
Client
Media Team
Traditional Political Model
Current Consumer Model
Creative Team
Media Buyer
Bush 2000, 2004 and Trump 2016 used independent creative and media teams.
McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 did not.
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PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Consumer campaigns
only sell the soap.
Political campaigns make the soap and sell it.
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MARKETING IS ONLY PART OF WHAT CAMPAIGN MANAGERS DO
CAMPAIGN
MANAGER
as:
Entrepreneur
and Chief Financial
Officer
Team Builder
MarketingMaven
Field General
PressSpinner
Political Historian and
Data Scientist
Strategy Enforcer
Scriptwrite
r and Stage
Manager
Policy Wonk
Candidate Confidant
and Concierge
Managing Insidethe Campaign
Managing Outsidethe Campaign
Ten Key Roles the Campaign Manager Must Play
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CONTROL OF INFORMATION FLOW
Consumer campaigns and brands are infrequently affected by unanticipated outside information sources.
Political campaigns and candidates are continually disrupted by information sources beyond their control.
News events and reporting, opposition candidates, pro- and anti- third party groups
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CANDIDATES REALLY AREN’T BRANDS
The Gecko doesn’t change the script, misspeak, or do his own tweets.
WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON
Consumer and Political Advertising:
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VOTERS ARE CONSUMERS OF POLITICS
1.) Consumption level
2.) Brand preference
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KEY TARGETING VARIABLES: VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP
1.) Consumption: Turnout Index
2.) Brand: Party Index
DEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
HIGH
TUR
NOUT
LOW
TUR
NOUT
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
Party Index
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ADULT VOTING PROPENSITY BY PARTY AFFILIATION: 2014-16Scarborough USA 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014 – Nov 2016), N=408,708
Som
etim
es V
otes
St
atew
ide
24.
7%
Alw
ays
Vote
St
atew
ide
46
.3%
Nev
er V
otes
St
atew
ide
29%
Democrat 27.6%
Independent, but feel closer to
Democrat9.9%
None of these20.4%
Independent, but feel closer to Republican
9.3%
Republican 22.8%
Independent10.1%
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MEDIA HEAVINESS: TOP TWO QUINTILES
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1070
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Series3; 0
0 0
0
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
TUR
NOUT
HIGH
TUR
NOUT
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
High Turnout Democrat Voters
High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
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MEDIA HEAVINESS: TV
-15 -10 -5 0 5 1070
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Series3; 00
1
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
TUR
NOUT
HIGH
TUR
NOUT
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
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THE EXPANDING PARTISAN CABLE NEWS UNIVERSE: 2000 - 2016
-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 11%2004 13%
2008 11%
2012 9%
20168%
2000 17%
2004 26%
2008 26%
2012 22%
2016 18%
2000 34.4%2004
27.1%2008 25.8%
201220.7%
2016 19.3%
LOWER TURNOUT
HIGHER TURNOUT
Voter Turnout In-dex
Differences between Republican and Democrat IndexesDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
More Democratic Audience More Republican Audience
In 2000 all three news nets had center-right audiences
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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: CABLE NETWORKS
-60 -40 -20 0 20 4050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
ER T
URNO
UTHI
GHER
TU
RNOU
TVo
ter
Turn
out
Inde
x
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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: NEWSLO
WER
TUR
NOUT
HIGH
ER
TURN
OUT
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
-140 -90 -40 10 60 110 160 210 26090
110
130
150
170
190
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: PRIMETIME TVLO
WER
TUR
NOUT
HIGH
ER
TURN
OUT
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 6050
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
TU
RNO
UTH
IGH
TU
RNO
UTVo
ter T
urno
ut In
dex
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
CAN THEY LEARN ANYTHING FROM ONE ANOTHER IN 2017?
Consumer and Political Advertising:
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POLITICS OF CONSUMERS
Consumer marketers need to understand the politics of their customers and their competition.
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VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RETAIL
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90
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
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VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RESTAURANTS
Vote
r Tu
rnou
t In
dex
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 8060
70
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100
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
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IDENTIFYING OPINION LEADERS: ELITES AND INFLUENCERS
If corporate reputation is important to your client, learn how to reach well-informed
and highly-involved opinion leaders.
10% - 25% of American adults
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ELITES AND INFLUENCERS: SPORTS
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 6080
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Sports watched in the past 12 monthsScarborough USA+ 2016 Release 2Aug 2015-Nov 2016, N=204,314
Elit
es +
Influ
ence
rs
Inde
x
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEWCopyright 2013 W. Feltus & NMRPP LLC
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Newcastle Amstel Light
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Politics of Alcohol Bever-age ConsumersGfk MRI 2015 Doublebase Study (n = 48,168)
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
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RN
OU
TH
IGH
TU
RN
OU
TVo
ter T
urno
ut In
dex
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters
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AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION BONUS QUESTION
What is the most Republican soft drink?
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High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOW
TU
RN
OU
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IGH
TU
RN
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TVo
ter T
urno
ut In
dex
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
