africa's infrastructure
DESCRIPTION
This paper focuses on infrastructure and economic growth links in low income countries, and identifies the challenges for sustainable development finance.TRANSCRIPT
Africa”s Infrastructure Tony Addison (UNU-WIDER) P.B. Anand (University of Bradford)
The Challenge
• Africa has high growth (> 5% on average): % of poor falling (48%), but numbers s?ll rising (400 mn)
• High spa?al inequality -‐ weakly integrated markets • unplanned urbaniza?on (informality) & conges?on • Remote rural regions (+ low-‐popula?on density) • Growth driven by natural resource boom; economies remain undiversified
• (But: varia?on -‐ from Guinea-‐Bissau to South Africa)
Rapid Growth in Africa
-‐4
-‐2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Grow
th Rate
GDP Annual Growth Rate
Sub Saharan Africa World MENA
(Source: World Bank Data)
Infrastructure funding gap
• Africa below global averages in infrastructure • Annual need: capital investment & maintenance spending required – around $90 bn
• Annual gap: around $40 bn, so less than half the need is funded
• Central government (tax) funds lion’s share: $30 bn; private sector provides $9bn; aid (ODA) $ 3-‐4 bn; & non-‐OECD external finance $2-‐3 bn
Mobilize More Finance
• Sovereign Wealth Funds – limited financing • Ins?tu?onal investors – limited financing • Few instruments for them to invest in: infrastructure bonds underdeveloped
• Progress: Africa Finance Corpora?on – public & private shareholders: issuing infrastructure bonds
• Kenya infrastructure bonds
Impact of Limited Infrastructure
• Erra?c power supply – 30 countries have regular power disrup?ons: hits SMEs (Nigeria especially bad, but also South Africa in 2008)
• Transport system weak – fragments markets – impedes food-‐security (1 in 3 malnourished)
• Ports: inefficient, long-‐wai?ng ?mes to load • One bright spot: mobile telecommunica?ons (& mobile banking)
Roads
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Paved road
s as %
of a
ll road
s
Year
Paved roads
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
Europe & Central Asia (all income levels)
LaPn America & Caribbean (all income levels)
Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)
North America
South Asia
Sub-‐Saharan Africa (all income levels)
World
Addison and Anand,2014 7
Mobile phone subscriptions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
mob
ile pho
nes p
er 100 persons
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
Europe & Central Asia (all income levels)
European Union
LaPn America & Caribbean (all income levels)
Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)
North America
OECD members
South Asia
Addison and Anand,2014 8
High Returns to Infrastructure
• Social rate of return is high & non-‐marginal • especially if poor are given high weight in benefits • if all of Africa caught up with Mauri?us (regional infrastructure leader) per capita growth would rise by 2.2 percentage points
• Connects to NEW PRODUCTIVE SECTORS: crea?on of higher value added: manufacturing; services; high-‐value processed agriculture (“new industrial policy”)
Appraisal of infrastructure is weak
• Conven?onal CBA weak – network effects, spa?al spillovers, agglomera?on effects especially important
• Regional development – pan-‐African transport & energy networks • In Low-‐income countries: adopt a more conserva?ve approach to
project selec?on? Can’t absorb big mistakes – opportunity costs higher than in advanced economies (& avoid debt, macro-‐instability)
• Paradox: Development economics has moved away from these big ques?ons: RCTs -‐ ‘randomistas’ (focus on human development investments in educa?on & health led by MDGs)
• Yet, a healthier & beper educated popula?on needs employment • Structural transforma?on to generate jobs, requires large-‐scale
infrastructure investment
Infrastructure: Dilemmas & Risks
• Environmental impact of infrastructure projects • Climate change impact – build robustness into infrastructure (UNU-‐WIDER project: combining bio-‐physical models & CGEs: detail at www.wider.unu.edu)
• Dilemma: southern Africa abundant in coal – how to get investment into renewables?
• Very low private investment in renewables in Africa: high investment costs (but poten?al: hydropower from DRC, geothermal in Great Lakes)
Using Natural Resource Rents
• Primary commodi?es dominate exports: oil & gas accounts for more than 50% of Africa’s exports by value (Nigeria, Angola & now Ghana + new East African producers)
• Task: turn natural resource wealth into las?ng wealth – human capital + infrastructure
• to diversify the economy, create inclusive growth • Growth then raises domes?c revenue base + private investment to finance more infrastructure
2025
3035
Expo
rt to
GDP
(%)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Fitted values
1960-2009Export Performance of SSA (Percentage of GDP)
Trend in SSA Export Performance
05
1015
2025
ODA
and
Natu
ral R
esou
rce
Rent
(% o
f GDP
)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(Percentage of GDP from 2000-2009)ODA and Natural Resource Rents in Sub Saharan Africa
ODA (% of GDP) Total Natural Resource Rent (% of GDP)
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Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neSi
erra
Leo
neZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaZa
mbia
Zam
biaCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deCa
pe V
erde
Cape
Ver
deEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaEr
itrea
Eritr
eaRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daRw
anda
Rwan
daBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iBu
rund
iM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
alawi
Mala
wiM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueM
ozam
bique
Moz
ambiq
ueG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auG
uinea
-Biss
auLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
iaLib
eria
Liber
ia
010
2030
4050
6070
ODA
(% G
DP)
0 10 20 30 40 5050 Quantile of ODA (% GDP)
ODA % of GDP, (1990-2009) Average
SSA CountriesODA as Percentage of GDP
Aid dependence across SSA countries
Conclusions
• Very wide variety of countries; but infrastructure sa?sfactory in only a very few
• Post-‐2015 development agenda – crea?on of jobs: requires structural transforma?on: infrastructure
• Aid: focus more on Technical assistance? Mobilize more private capital?
• Pan-‐African vision needed – to connect landlocked to coastal growth poles; build cross-‐border transport & energy; reduce conflict
