african elephants: population trends and their causes · african elephants: population trends in...

African elephants:population trends and

their causesI. Douglas-Hamilton

In 1985 many African elephant populations, which had been monitored for a decade or more,were either in rapid decline or down to a fraction of their former size. The author examinesregional trends and information on key populations with reference to the critical factors affectingthe survival of the African elephant, most significantly poaching and the illegal trade in ivory.

Before the mid 1970s, surprisingly little reliableinformation was available on the numbers anddistribution of the African elephant Loxodontaafricana sp. By 1979 data were still scanty, but acontinental survey estimated approximately onemillion elephants in a large number of fragmentedpopulations. The general downward trend wasalready evident (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979a). Inthe past few years, elephants appear to have beenvirtually eliminated in certain areas within Sudan,Chad, the Central African Republic and Zaire,and have been greatly reduced in East, South andWest Africa. Exceptions to this general rule arefound in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Botswana andSouth Africa.

A variety of factors has been implicated in theincreased mortality of elephants, includingpoaching for meat or ivory, habitat destruction,drought and disease. The development andimplementation of effective conservationmeasures clearly depend upon identification ofthe most critical factors. This article argues thatpoaching for ivory is the most immediate threat tothe elephants' future, and habitat loss is the long-term threat. Historically, elephant populationshave been exterminated by ivory hunters alone,in North Africa in the early Middle Ages(Carrington, 1958), in most of South Africa in theeighteenth and nineteenth centuries (Bryden,1903), and in most of West Africa in the latenineteenth and early twentieth century (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979b).African elephants: population trends

In the 1970s rising ivory prices in combinationwith the proliferation of automatic rifles in muchof Africa have led once again to enormousdestruction of elephant populations. If not haltedor controlled, the continuation of poaching atcurrent levels may rapidly deplete even the most'secure' populations. Anti-poaching measuresaccompanied by elimination of or rigorouscontrol over the ivory trade should be the toppriorities for conservationists.

Elephant population trendsTrends in some key elephant populations aresummarized below. The data have been com-piled from a variety of sources, including over 150aerial surveys (30 made by the author), thescientific literature and, since 1976, 124responses to a series of IUCN elephant question-naires*. Methods used ranged from statisticalsampling to informed estimation by local wildlifeofficials. The charts in Figure 1 show my inter-pretation of probable trends for 19 areas withinthe period 1960-1985. The data are adjusted toan index value of 100 in 1970, or in the firstfollowing year in which they became available.There are still great uncertainties about the totalnumber of elephants in Africa; approximately 42per cent of their range contains forest where it is

*Many of the surveys and all the questionnaires were financedby WWF and NYZS under the auspices of the IUCN SpeciesSurvival Commission.

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200

100

r Chad

i- Northern NPs,CAR

r Boucle de BaouieNP, Mali

I960 1970 1980Year

Niokolo-KobaNP, Senegal

Garamba NP,Zaire

Kidepo NP,Uganda

- Serengeti NP,North Tanzania

100

I960 1970 1980

Range 1984

Informed guess

Census-based

NP National ParkGR Game Reserve

Figure 1. Distribution map and trend indices for selected African elephant populations, 1960-85, including index ofreal ivory price adjusted to exclude effect of inflation.

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difficult or impossible to count from the air. Thetrends, however, are much clearer, even in theforest.

Two general patterns are evident. Firstly, mostpopulations, whether in 'protected' areas or not,are now in decline (exceptions are found inZimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana and Malawi).Secondly, in most 'protected' areas declines havebeen preceded by increases, so that the popu-lation density plotted over time shows a hump-back curve. The initial increases are bestexplained by the widely accepted hypothesis thatparks and reserves tend to attract 'refugee'elephants escaping external harassment orhabitat encroachment. Improved census tech-nique also contributed to apparent increases insome cases. The pattern of subsequent declinesin protected areas is explained in most cases byintensified ivory poaching after external sourceshave been depleted.

Thus, rapid population increases within protectedareas, which might be interpreted as healthy,growing elephant populations, may in realityrepresent an early warning of poaching or otherdisturbance outside the park or reserveboundaries. Such poaching may ultimatelythreaten the protected areas themselves.

The following examples, although fragmentaryand not comprehensive, serve to illustrate thetrends across the continent.

West Africa (elephant range 364,000sq km; 5 per cent of total range)Most elephants were eradicated from West Africain the early part of this century. Ivory exportsincreased and then collapsed despite con-tinuously rising prices before 1914. It is possiblethat the ivory trade over-exploited the resourceand caused a crash (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979b).Scientific data are lacking from that time, butcontemporary accounts of administrators andhunters support this hypothesis. Today,elephants survive in scattered, relict populations,threatened by both ivory poaching and loss ofhabitat associated with high human populationdensities.African elephants: population trends

In the savannahs and Sahel of the north, thewesternmost population is in the Niokola-KobaNational Park, in Senegal. Aerial counts show anincrease from an estimated 69 elephants in 1967to a maximum of 450 in 1979 (Dupuy, question-naire replies). Then the population rapidlycollapsed to about 80 in 1984, attributed to ivorypoaching by well-armed poachers (Verschuren,1981).

In the northern semi-desert of Mali, the Gourmaregion supports a few hundred elephants nowsaid to be declining due to drought (La Marche,questionnaire replies; Olivier, 1983). In theGuinean forest, aerial surveys in Boucle deBaoule, Mali, failed to locate elephants in 1981(De Bie and Kessler, 1983). It is possible thatbetween five and seven elephants survive out ofthe population estimated at 70 in 1977, and 20 in1980. The population south-east of Bamako hasdeclined, from 60 in 1974 to 35 in 1980 andfewer than 20 in 1985. Professional ivorypoachers with heavy guns were said to be thecause. Elsewhere in Mali four populations are saidto have disappeared altogether, and otherpopulations are believed to be in severe decline(La Marche, questionnaire replies).

The largest Guinean savannah woodlandelephant range includes Pare W, shared betweenBurkina-Faso, Niger and Benin, with the neigh-bouring Pendjari and Arli National Parks(Bousquet and Szaniawski, 1981). Immigrationof elephants is believed to have swollen numbersin the last 20 years, but ivory poaching has beenperceived to be a problem since 1982 (Newby,questionnaire reply).

The elephant subspecies Loxodonta a. cyclotis,found in the forests of Ivory Coast, Liberia, SierraLeone and Ghana, is reported to be in declineand endangered (Roth etal, 1984; Teleki, 1980;Verschuren, 1982; questionnaire replies). InIvory Coast elephants ranges are fragmented into35-40 isolated populations and have diminishedby more than 80 per cent since the turn of thecentury. Currently, poaching for ivory is reportedas the main cause of the estimated 10 per centannual rate of decrease (Roth et a/., 1984). Togoappears to be an exception to the general rule,with two small protected populations of elephants

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Author's aeroplane being used to count elephants in LakeManyara National Park during the WWF/NYZS African

elephant survey and conservation programme(/. and O. Douglas-Hamilton).

said to suffer little from poaching (Duncan,questionnaire reply).

Most of Nigeria's elephants are found in theYankari Game Reserve and Kainji National Park,where the populations have shown a naturalincrease. Elsewhere, elephants live in small,scattered, relict populations, which, althoughmainly confined to forest or game reserves, arebelieved to be declining. Until recently the maincauses have been poaching for meat andexpansion of people into the elephants' range.One possible exception is the 100 or so elephantsliving near Lake Chad in the far north-east of thecountry. Although these elephants are notofficially protected within a reserve, they are saidto be protected by a continuing local tradition thatforbids the killing of elephants (Hall, question-naire replies).14

Central Africa (elephant range3,372,000 sq km; 48 per cent of totalrange)Central Africa probably still harbours the largestproportion of Africa's elephants by virtue of theimmense range and the high proportion of forest,which gives the elephants greater shelter fromhuman predation than the open savannah. Eachcountry in the region still possesses majorelephant ranges.

Cameroon. Elephants are said to haveincreased in both the Waza and KalamaloueNational Parks through immigration from Chad,where a civil war has been raging, but some of thisconflict has spilled over the border, and poachingwith automatic rifles has recently been reported inthe north. There is a risk that they may begin todecrease if they have not already done so. Insouthern forested areas elephants are reported tohave been greatly depleted by ivory poaching(Douglas-Hamilton, 1979b; questionnairereplies).

Central African Republic. An uncontrolledivory trade, which encouraged villagers to poachby furnishing them with guns, has led to the deci-mation of elephants in the south-east, renownedfor its large tuskers in the late 1970s (Douglas-Hamilton, 1980; Mulder and Caro, 1980). In thenorth horsemen from Sudan and Chad haveslaughtered elephants both with long spears andwith automatic rifles. Aerial surveys of theBamingu-Bangoran and Manovo-GoundaNational Parks in 1985 revealed a decline inelephants of the order of 80 per cent since 1981(Douglas-Hamilton et ai, 1985). The supply oflarge tusks has now virtually dried up, and big bullelephants are rare. The toll has fallen on ever-younger age groups (Froment, 1985; Wells andDouglas-Hamilton, 1986). The most recentestimate is of 10,000-15,000 elephants in 1985,compared with the first estimate of some 80,000-100,000 in 1976 (Douglas-Hamilton era/., 1985;Froment, 1985). A total ban on all private ivorytrading was seen by the government as the onlypossible solution, and this was enforced in 1985.A zero export quota has been declared to theConvention on International Trade inEndangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora(CITES) Secretariat for 1986.

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Chad. The elephant population dramaticallycollapsed within a few months of the outbreak ofcivil war in 1979 (Reoyo, 1979; Lefol, question-naire replies). Although this had numbered atleast 15,000, and possibly many more, recentestimates suggest that 2000-3000 remain in avast range (Martin, 1985). The elephants are saidto spend much of their time on the move. In 1985there was still considerable commerce in ivory,some of it probably from neighbouring CARwhere Chadian horsemen hunted with littleimpediment. The latest count of 1986 confirmsthe trend reported (Bousquet, pers. comm.).

Congo. The range is reported to have dimin-ished by half in the 30 years prior to 1980, and themilitary has been implicated in poaching (Nsosso,questionnaire replies).

Zaire. Elephants declined by approximately 60per cent between 1976 and 1983 in the GarambaNational Park, where they had formerly beenamong the very densest populations in Africa(Savidge et al, 1976; Hillman and Borner,1983). It is likely that the decline in surroundingunprotected areas has been more severe. Largeareas of north-east Zaire bordering on Sudan arereported as being devoid of elephants; they havebeen killed by Arab poachers armed with auto-matic weapons (Parry, 1983). In another part ofZaire along the CAR border, an elephant popu-lation was reported as relatively undisturbed asrecently as 1984 (Hurt, questionnaire reply), butfurther east I saw no elephants on a one-hourflight in 1985 along the Mbomou river separatingthe two countries, where ten years earlier on anidentical flight I had seen elephants in greaterabundance than anywhere in my previousexperience. The remaining elephants of northernZaire, formerly the most densely populatedelephant range in all Africa, are under constantthreat from Arab poachers attempting to enterfrom CAR and Sudan (Parry, questionnairereply). The ivory trade within the country hasbeen an uncontrolled free-for-all for many years(Douglas-Hamilton, 1980). Zaire still has moreelephant range than any other country, but allinformants report massive declines, and I believethat the recent model of Martin (1985) estimatingthat 500,000 elephants remain in the country, ishighly optimistic.

African elephants: population trends

Gabon had an undisturbed population ofelephants as recently as 1979 (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979a). The current status has notbeen reported although Dr R. Barnes is currentlycarrying out an elephant research project in thefield and reports considerable ivory poaching.

East Africa (elephant range 1,866,000sq km; 26 per cent of total range)East Africa's elephants are much better known,through census work, than those of West andCentral Africa. The initial problems associatedwith elephant increase in the parks were firstdefined in this region, and each country has sub-sequently experienced massive declines ofelephants within the majority of 'protected areas'where they are found.

Sudan. Arabs from the north, in bands ofapproximately 60 and armed with Kalashnikovand 63 automatic rifles, have raided protectedand wilderness areas in the dry season. Theyoften operate on horseback and camel (Parry,1983; questionnaire replies), nullifying theelephant's prime defence of being able to outwalkits human predators. The army and police havealso been implicated in elephant poaching andivory trading (Boitani, 1981; Watson et al,1976). There have been a few fragmentary aerialsurveys, which support the widespread reportsthat elephant populations have collapsed(Boitani, 1981; Hillman et al., 1981). Carcassratios in the Shambe National Park in 1981suggest a decline of the order of 60 per cent in theprevious five years (Hillman et al, 1981). In thebest case it is likely that Sudan has lost half of itselephants since 1975; in the worst case theelephant decline may have equalled that ofneighbouring Uganda, a population crash of 90per cent in the space of five years.

Ethiopia. There has never been a properlyorganized elephant census but, according toMartin (1985), illegal hunting exceeds thesustained yield of the population, and the mainsource of legal ivory in the country is throughconfiscation.

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Somalia. Elephant poaching in Somalia wasalmost eliminated between 1971 and 1976. Theelephants appeared to be expanding northwards,due to effective protection, but some elephantsmay also have immigrated to escape frompoaching in Kenya at that time. An aerial surveyin 1976 found the highest density of elephantcarcasses along the Kenya border (Bunderson,Abel, questionnaire replies). Then, in 1977,poaching for ivory got under way at a muchhigher rate and the country was believed to havelost over half its elephants by 1981 (Omar, 1981).According to R. M. Watson (pers.comm.) theelephants have now largely been eliminated.

Kenya. Elephants came under heavy pressurefrom the ivory trade in the early 1970s, and mostpopulations outside protected areas wereseverely reduced by the mid-1970s. Carcassratios from surveys conducted across the range-lands by the Kenya rangeland monitoring unit(Stelfox et al., 1981) suggest declines of the orderof 80 per cent prior to 1981. Kenya's mostimportant elephant population, in the TsavoNational Park, probably numbered well over40,000 in the late 1960s (Cobb, 1976; Otticholo,1986). The trend of the Tsavo elephants showsan increase in the 1960s followed by a crash intwo phases, firstly in 1971 due to drought andstarvation, and secondly in 1975 and 1976 due topoaching for ivory (Otticholo, 1986). The popu-lation has shown a further decline since then. Thesecond most important Kenyan population wasfound in the Lamu area, mainly outside reserves.It declined from 1976, with poaching reported asbeing exceptionally severe in 1980-1983. By1985, elephants had not been seen in the vicinityof the Kiwaiyu Tourist Camp for three yearswhere formerly they had been plentiful (question-naire replies). Apart from the Lamu area,elephant poaching in Kenya has not beenreported as being as serious in the 1980s as it wasin the late 1970s before the ban on private ivorytrading.

Tanzania. Elephant poaching became estab-lished later in Tanzania than in Kenya, and beganin the north of the country. A high proportion ofdead elephants was seen on surveys in theTabora and Arusha regions in 1979 and 1980,suggesting overall declines that varied between16

25 per cent and 100 per cent through most ofnorthern Tanzania (Ecosystems, 1979-1980).These trends spread to the south. The Selouselephant population, the largest known in Africa,which numbered over 100,000 in 1976, is nowdeclining after an initial period of natural increaseand compression in the 1960s. Surveys suggest a20—30 per cent decline in elephants in thenorthern Selous between 1976 and 1981(Douglas-Hamilton, 1984b), which hasapparently become even more serious recently(Borner and Severre, 1985; questionnairereplies). Similar trends appear to be true of theRuaha and Serengeti populations, both of whichpeaked in the 1970s and later showed majordeclines (Barnes and Douglas-Hamilton, 1982;Borner and Severre, 1984; Dublin and Douglas-Hamilton, 1986). Officials in the wildlife depart-ment see a total ban on all private ivory trading inworked and unworked ivory as the only solutionfor conserving Tanzania's elephants. Trends inLake Manyara National Park do not follow thenational pattern. Elephants increased in the1950s through immigration and in the late 1960sthrough natural reproduction. In the absence ofpoaching or culling they have remained relativelystable, being controlled by periodic disease. Thepark is small and relatively well patrolled(Douglas-Hamilton, 1972; Weyerhaeuser,1982).

Uganda. Elephant numbers in QueenElizabeth and Murchison Falls National Parksshowed increases in the 1960s followed bycatastrophes in the late 1970s, with declines ofthe order of 80-90 per cent (Douglas-Hamilton,1980; Douglas-Hamilton etal, 1980; Eltringhamand Malpas, 1980). Kidepo National Park had amigratory population, but from a count made in1981, the carcass ratio suggested a decline of 65per cent in the previous four years (Douglas-Hamilton, 1983a). The cause in each case hasbeen ivory poaching helped by easy availability ofweapons and general chaos. Poaching waschecked in 1980 by the National Park's rehabili-tation programme (Kayanja and Douglas-Hamilton, 1982). Elephants remained stable atlow densities, with some additions by immigration(Douglas-Hamilton, 1983a). No new reliablesurveys have been made since 1982, and the

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Doomed herd of elephants south of the Nile, Murchison Falls National Park, counted by the author in 1976. Virtually all thesewere killed by 1980 (/. and O. Douglas-Hamilton).

effects of the recent civil war have not yet beenassessed.

Rwanda. In the Akagera National Park thereare 25 elephants, survivors of an exterminationwhen 106 adults were killed in 1975, and calveswere immobilized and transported to the park(Haigh eta/., 1979).

Southern Africa (elephant range1,476,000 sq km; 21 per cent of totalrangeIn Southern Africa elephants are decreasing inAngola, Mozambique and Zambia, but on thewhole are stable or increasing in Botswana,Namibia, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi.

Angola. No hard data are available on accountof the war; rumours continue of guerillas tradingivory for arms, but no quantitative information isavailable.

Zambia. Early estimates of the most importantLuangwa Valley elephant population suggest thatAfrican elephants: population trends

elephants increased until the early 1970s,probably through compression and naturalincrease. In the 1979 aerial census it appearedthat elephant numbers within the national parkhad declined from 56,000 to 33,500 since 1973(Caughley and Goddard, 1975; Douglas-Hamilton etai, 1979). Counts in 1985 confirmeda further decrease of approximately 30 per cent,with more compression of the elephants intorelatively safe areas (Kaweche and Lewis, pers.comm.).

Botswana. Botswana is one of the fewcountries where elephants are reported to beincreasing. Although elephant poaching was aproblem in the early 1980s, recent aerial surveyshave returned record dry-season concentrationsof elephants in the Chobe National Park and haveshown that elephants are widely distributed atdensities that compare favourably with the bestranges left on the continent (Melton, 1985;Patterson, 1985; Work, 1983).

Namibia. The population of the EtoshaNational Park is believed to be secure, but theelephants living in desert conditions in Kaokoland

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are threatened, numbers reported as falling from3000 in 1962 to 220 in 1982. Aerial censuses in1982 uncovered clear evidence of poaching(Craven, 1984; Owen-Smith, 1984).

Malawi. An early count of the main populationin Kasungu National Park gave an overestimate,due to faulty survey technique, of about 2500,giving a total national value of 4000-4500.Subsequent surveys have shown the Kasungupopulation to be around 800-1000, giving a totalfor Malawi of about 2300. Elephant poaching inthe park increased steadily from 1977 to 1981and appeared to be compressing elephants intosafe areas in the east and centre of KasunguNational Park. An anti-poaching campaignmounted in 1982 was apparently successful andrelieved the compression, as elephants oncemore were safe to move further afield. It isreported that the elephant population is nowmore or less stable, and poaching of elephants isunder control (Bell, 1984; questionnaire replies).

Mozambique. All information on this country isreported by Tello (questionnaire replies). Theelephant range still covers one-third of thecountry, but the largest components in the centreand south of the country may have become frag-mented since 1975. Until recently elephants inNiassa and Rovuma in the north and Marromeuin the centre of the country were reported asincreasing and expanding their ranges, with onlylight poaching from across the border withTanzania. Since 1982 the situation has deter-iorated dramatically in the central and southernranges. Increasing civil strife has led to units of thearmy, the militia and the 'resistance' eachpoaching in areas that they control. GorongozaNational Park has been overrun by rebels, whohave killed elephants for ivory and meat,reducing their numbers from an estimated 6000to 2000. In the centre and west of the country, thefall in elephant numbers is estimated to be of theorder of 65 per cent in the space of two years.Only in the Zambezi Utilization Area was theresome increase, due to immigration. Pitchedbattles have been fought between rebels andwildlife department staff in this area. In the south,declines are believed to be more severe, of theorder of 76 per cent, with the exception ofMaputo Reserve where numbers are still esti-18

mated around 200. Tello's national elephantestimate fell from approximately 50,000 in 1982to fewer than 30,000 in 1984.

Zimbabwe. There were believed to be approxi-mately 40,000 elephants in Zimbabwe in 1981.The war had not affected their status adversely; ifanything, it had permitted an increase in range insome parts of the country. With the cessation ofthe war, there was an upsurge of elephantpoaching on the Botswana border, but this wasquickly brought under control. The elephantpopulation of Zimbabwe has been showing anincrease of about 5 per cent per anum. HwangeNational Park reflects this trend (Cumming,questionnaire replies). There are now probablyten times as many elephants in the country asthere were at the turn of the century. Increasingelephant populations, coupled with decreasingrange, have resulted in large-scale changes towoodland in parts of some of the protected areas.A policy of maintaining woodland communitieshas led to culling for conservation reasons, andlocal people have benefitted from these cullingoperations (Cumming, pers.comm.). The statusof elephants is similar to what it was in East Africain the 1960s, with apparently secure elephantsliving at high densities in the parks, and numerousexternal populations that can be hunted for sport.The Department of Wildlife and Parks has shownwhat can be achieved with adequate protectionand control of the ivory trade. Equally, if deprivedof that protection and control the elephants coulddecrease in the future.

South Africa. Elephants in the Kruger NationalPark are now held stable by culling, after adramatic increase through immigration andnatural reproduction up to the 1970s (Hall-Martin, 1981; Van Wyk and Fairall, 1969).Poachers from Mozambique armed with auto-matic rifles killed over 100 elephants in the early1980s, but they have been contained (Hall-Martin, questionnaire replies). In the south, over100 elephants in the Addo National Park have thehighest recorded rate of increase on the conti-nent, 7 per cent per year (Hall-Martin, 1980).This is an example of how elephant populationscan recover from the brink of extinction if the areathey live in becomes adequately protected.

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Factors affecting elephant trendsDuring the 1960s, elephants compressed intomany African national parks caused extensivewoodland destruction. Classic examples were theMurchison Falls National Park in Uganda and theTsavo National Park in Kenya. The price of ivoryin real terms remained stable over the decade as awhole. Poaching was brought well under controlin most parks.

In the 1970s the situation changed dramatically.The value of ivory in real terms increased signifi-cantly. Simultaneously, reports of elephant popu-lation decline became common, and manyAfrican countries entered into an explosive armsrace, accompanied by civil disturbances, warsand guerilla campaigns. The impact of these latterfactors, and the increased availability of auto-matic weapons on elephant populationdynamics, need to be taken into account(Douglas-Hamilton, 1983b; Burrilleta/., 1986).

Ivory pricesFrom 1960 to 1969 the international trade priceof raw ivory moved little, averaging $5.45 per kg,plus or minus 20 per cent. In 1970, however, itjumped to $7.44 and went on climbing to a peakof $74.42 in 1978 (Parker, 1979). The pricedropped to $52.80 per kg in 1982, but has sincerisen to over $100 per kg. These rises were greatlyin excess of inflation, and when the effects ofinflation are removed, the real value of ivory wassix times higher in 1978 than in 1960. Changes inthe real value of ivory are presented in Figure 1 asan index, with a base of 100 in 1960. At no timesince 1973 has the real value been less than threetimes its average for the 1960s.

The reasons for this price rise are not fully under-stood, although it has been suggested thatinvestors were attracted to ivory as a wealth storein a time of high inflation. The result has been toincrease incentives to obtain and trade in ivory.The price increases have worked their way downthe economic chain to the primary producer, thepoacher who kills elephants. The price obtainedby a poacher, although only a fraction of theinternational price, has experienced equivalent orgreater increases (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979b).African elephants: population trends

There are therefore good grounds for supposingthat the entire ecology and future prospects of theAfrican elephant have been negatively affectedby the leap in the ivory price rise and consequentexcessive human predation.

The arms raceIn recent years, the use of automatic rifles inelephant poaching has been reported in a largenumber of national parks: Niokola-Koba inSenegal, Zakouma in Chad, Garamba in Zaire,Bamingui-Bangoran in CAR, the Luangwa Valleyin Zambia, Hwange in Zimbabwe; Chobe inBotswana, Gorongoza in Mozambique, theKruger in South Africa, and many in East Africa(Douglas-Hamilton, 1983a). These weaponsclearly originated from outside the continent.

According to the US Arms Control and Disarm-ament Agency (1983), the value of arms importsto Africa increased (in real terms) from $500million in 1971 to $4500 million in 1980; militaryexpenditure in Africa during the same periodincreased at an annual average rate of 6.66 percent. Eastern Africa provides a particularly potentcase study. Somalia armed in the early 1970s inpreparation for the Ogaden war, inducing similaraction from Ethiopia. As Uganda expanded itsmilitary forces under Amin, Tanzania and thenKenya felt compelled to follow suit. Sudanexpanded its military capability in order to resistLibyan interference.

Armed forces in the region increased from141,000 in 1971 to 441,000 in 1980 (US ArmsControl and Disarmament Agency, 1983). Itseems reasonable to assume that the number ofautomatic rifles will be related to this dramaticincrease in the number of men serving in thearmed forces in the region. A critical question ishow so many of these weapons came to be usedfor poaching. In some countries, for exampleUganda and Sudan, elements of the militarythemselves were the main poachers, and thelightly armed and outnumbered park rangerswere powerless to oppose them. In other casesweapons were lost, stolen, taken from defeatedsoldiers, looted from armouries, issued topeople's militias, channelled secretly to guerillamovements, or simply traded by soldiers formoney or goods. In much of Central Africa ivory

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'collectors' gave guns to villagers and paid themfor ivory recovered (personal obs; questionnairereplies; Mulder and Caro, 1980).

The proliferation of weapons was increased bywars and civil strife. For example, as Amin'spower weakened in Uganda, the Matheniko clanof the Karamajong tribe attacked and over-whelmed the police barracks at Moroto. In thisraid they looted the armoury and carried off12,500 automatic rifles, 1.5 million rounds ofammunition, and numerous rocket-propelledgrenades and other munitions. The Jieh clan alsoparticipated in this haul (Avergan and Honey,1982).

The Matheniko and the Jieh clans then attackedother clans and accumulated stolen cattle. Themarket for these cattle and the loose guns spread.When one tribe acquired new weapons, theothers were under pressure to keep up or sufferdefeat. Thus, a chain-reaction of weaponacquisition was set off. From the Karamajong inUganda the Toposa acquired rifles and took themto Sudan, and the Turkana brought rifles toKenya. The Pokot acquired them too as theywere traded through the tribes (Avergan andHoney, 1982).

In 1979 retreating troops of Amin were eager toabandon their weapons and uniforms in order toavoid capture and execution. When they could,they sold their guns to villagers. Their retreat backto West Nile Province, from where most of themcame, lay through the Murchison Falls NationalPark. Hundreds of rifles came into the hands oflocal people in that area, and they began topoach.

Further east the Somalis built up their army withthe policy of extending their boundaries toinclude the Somali communities living inEthiopia, French Somaliland and NorthernKenya. Somali 'shifta' were responsible from1970 to 1975 for reducing elephant populationsalong the Tana River and in the Lamu Garissaregion of Kenya.

In the 1977 Ogaden war, Somali insurgentsdeveloped a trail across Northern Kenya in theMandera area. Inevitably some of these guerillas,who were probably not well disciplined, desertedor sold or lent their arms to others. The spin-off20

was that more loose guns wound up in the handsof the nomads.

It was not until this point that elephant poachingin Somalia itself got under way. Formerly, it hadbeen reported that poaching had been virtuallyeliminated in the country. Elephant poachingsuddenly increased with the easy availability ofautomatic weapons associated with the warbetween the Western Somalia Liberation Frontand Ethiopia. In the five years previous to 1981over one-half of the elephants of the country werekilled, and in many areas this proportion wassurpassed. There were places where the anti-poaching unit found groups of up to 80 deadelephants.

To the south, in Tanzania, loose guns have alsoincreased. I found a group of eight deadelephants in the Tarangire National Park on anaerial survey in 1977, an apparently expertkilling. In 1981 Tanzanian troops returned fromUganda, undisciplined, looting, and 'losing' guns.

At the end of the Sudanese civil war in 1974many of the Southern 'Anyanya' guerillas wererecruited into the army and issued with automaticweapons. As a result of the recent civil dis-turbances an anarchical situation exists in whichelements of the army, government officials, ex'Anyayas', and gangs of well-armed horse-mounted Arabs have been involved in a free-for-all, which appears to have decimated everyelephant population in the southern Sudan.

Human population growthHuman population growth is an issue of criticalimportance in the developing countries, par-ticularly in Africa. Competition for land use withexpanding human populations has alreadyresulted in the loss of valuable wildlife habitat inmany countries. If population growth in Kenyacontinues at the current 4 per cent rate, thehighest in the world, the population will double inless than 18 years. Continuation of current trendswill inevitably challenge the integrity of protectedareas and threaten the existence of largemammals.

Competition for land use arising from humanpopulation growth has been proposed as the

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major factor responsible for the recent decline inelephant numbers (Parker and Amin, 1983;Parker and Martin, 1982). During the last decade,however, the expansion of human populations inrural areas has not matched the overall growthrates in many parts of Africa due to movementsinto urban areas. Furthermore, decreases inelephant numbers have frequently beenrecorded in areas of low human populationdensity where competition for land use isminimal. Examples include Sudan, Chad, CARand Northern Zaire.

In comparison with the rapid and widespreadescalation of poaching encouraged by the factorsdiscussed earlier, the suggestion that humangrowth could be the main factor accounting forelephant decreases of the last decade isimplausible.

Comparison of factorsThe factors affecting elephants can be comparedby considering their relative rates of changeduring the 1960s and 1970s. The average dollarvalue of ivory in the 1960s increased in real valueby three times for the period 1970-1982.Between 1971 and 1980 the real value of armsimported into the East African region increasedby at least nine times and armed forces by threetimes, whereas the human population onlyincreased by 50 per cent in the country of mostrapid growth, Kenya.

The critical importance of establishing effectiveanti-poaching measures and rigorous controlover the ivory trade as a top priority for conserv-ationists seems clear; however, informationobtained from the trade itself has in the past led tounderestimates of the effect of the trade onelephant populations (Parker and Amin, 1983).Of what does this trade information consist?

Information from the ivory tradeAn extensive study of the ivory trade, which Icommissioned from Parker (1979) on behalf ofthe US Fish and Wildlife Service, and subsequentreports from Parker and Martin (1982, 1983),concluded that the ivory trade does not pose animmediate crisis for elephants, and that humanpopulation increase is the key to the decline inAfrican elephants: population trends

elephant numbers. More recently, Martin (1985),in a study for CITES, has concluded fromcomputer modelling that the overall elephantpopulation of Africa is declining at a rate of lessthan 2 per cent, despite the contradiction offeredby the majority of field data quoted earlier.

Parker and Martin's argument is developed in thefollowing stages: the total weight of ivoryexported from the African continent is estimatedfrom customs returns of certain importingcountries, primarily Hong Kong and Japan; thenumber of tusks, and therefore elephants, is thencalculated from an estimate of the average weightof each tusk; this figure is then compared to conti-nental population estimates and judged too smallto be significant.

Their analysis rests upon certain criticalassumptions:(i) that the amount of ivory traded outside Africacan be determined accurately from an analysis oftrade statistics and customs returns prepared bythe leading importing countries;(ii) that this data can be combined with meantusk weights obtained from Hong Kong importlicences and CITES records to evaluate theoverall effect of the ivory trade on elephantpopulations.

Is it realistic to suggest that official import statisticsgive an accurate picture of the world ivory trade,and that the amount of ivory, both worked andunworked, leaving Africa undocumented is verysmall? Two examples, which I have come acrosspersonally, suggest otherwise.

In Ivory Coast 29 tonnes of raw ivory wereimported in 1977 (Douglas-Hamilton, 1979b),but only 0.6 tonnes of worked ivory and 0.5tonnes of raw ivory were officially exported. Theimported ivory went almost entirely to supply theivory carving industry. One can reasonablyassume that most of these 29 tonnes were sold tolocal expatriates or tourists, and eventually dis-appeared overseas classified as personal effects,without appearing in any export or overseasimport statistics.

A second example of ivory leaving the continentundocumented took place in Burundi. I wasreliably informed that an estimated 120 tonnes ofivory were fraudulently flown out on a well-known

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airline in 1981 and 1982 as unaccompaniedluggage. The reason for this deception was toavoid paying freight charges on ivory of $5-6 perkg, rather than the lower charge of $2 per kg onunaccompanied luggage. The amount is nottrivial. It comes to nearly 10 per cent of Africa'sivory exports estimated by TRAFFIC for thoseyears (WTMU, 1983). There is no reason tosuppose that this smuggled ivory wouldnecessarily appear in overseas import statistics.This amount was carried by only one airline fromone country. If all such instances were known, thetrue exports could be greatly multiplied. Workedivory leaving in the diplomatic bag is alsoprobably very significant.

The inherent difficulty in estimating reliableparameters from international trade data wasfurther illustrated by the omission of the export of315 tonnes of ivory in 1977 from Sudan to SaudiArabia (Parker, 1979). Subsequent recognitionof this shipment showed that original estimates oftotal African ivory exports for that year had beenunderstated by 27 per cent (Parker and Martin,1983). It is conceivable that other similar ship-ments may have been overlooked temporarily,and others may have gone entirely undetected.

The next important question is how manyelephants the ivory exports, primarily recordedby weight, actually represent. The reliability of theanswer depends on the mean tusk weight used inthe calculation. Hong Kong import licencesexamined by Parker in 1978 gave a figure of 9.65kg, which forms the basis of subsequent cal-culations. Yet estimates for Hong Kong meantusk weights in later years collected by the WildlifeTrade Monitoring Unit of the IUCN are muchlower at 5.39-5.75 kg (WTMU, 1983). WTMUalso reported a decline in mean tusk weights ofJapanese imports from 16.29 kg in 1979 to 9.7 kgin 1982 [Parker and Martin (1983) maintain thatthe size of Japanese tusks remained constantduring this period].

If, as these data suggest, there has been a rapidoverall drop in mean tusk weight, the implicationis that smaller and younger elephants are beingkilled for ivory under conditions of severe over-exploitation. This conclusion is supported byevidence of a drop in Hong Kong mean tuskweights (Caldwell and Barzdo, 1985), and in the22

very low mean tusk weights of ivory confiscatedfrom poachers in Uganda and CAR, which I havemeasured at 2.7 and 3 kg, respectively.Alternatively, if the 9.65 kg mean value was in factan overestimate, then the number of elephantscalculated by Parker and Martin from tradefigures was an underestimate.

They also appear to have overestimated theamount of ivory collected from elephants suc-cumbing to natural mortality, and claimed thatthis source accounts for 20 per cent of Africanivory exports. However, field data collected byCumming suggest that only 1 per cent ofZimbabwe's ivory comes from this source. In anycase, much of the so-called 'found ivory'described by Parker is likely to have come fromelephants that have died from wounds caused byman, as was pointed out by Sheldrick at Tsavo(Sheldrick, 1976). According to Bell (pers.comm.), 85 per cent of the elephants found deadby rangers in Malawi have died of wounds.

In summary, the earlier arguments (Parker, 1979;Parker and Amin, 1983; Parker and Martin,1982, 1983), which suggested that concernexpressed over killing elephants for ivory wasexaggerated, are largely based upon an illusion ofaccuracy of ivory trade records, an ignorance ofelephant trends then current, and optimisticassumptions about elephant numbers. They relyon ivory trade data that, at best, provide veryminimal estimates of elephant mortality due toivory poaching. The difficulties of interpretingsuch data have been recognized by Caldwell andBarzdo (1985).

ConclusionElephants represent a valuable aesthetic andeconomic asset now rapidly depleted by killing forivory, rather than by human population growth.Any discussion of the rational management ofelephants as a renewable natural resource,whether for ivory, meat or tourism, is academic ifmanagers cannot prevent their destruction. Thepremature elimination of elephants over much oftheir range represents one of the most wastefulmammalian tragedies of this century. Conser-vation measures must be implemented at twolevels: the trade in ivory products must be rigor-ously controlled, or eliminated, and the illegal

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killing of elephants in protected areas must besignificantly reduced.

A total ban in private ivory trading was imple-mented in Kenya in 1978, and a similar mora-torium may well be the best solution in othercountries until such time as elephant herds canbuild up. A moratorium would not only protectthe elephants, but could eventually lead togreater production of ivory through the harvest-ing of that produced by natural mortality. This isbecause older elephants produce more ivory peryear than young ones, and leaving a populationto grow old would maximize ivory production(Pilgram and Western, 1984).

The banning of raw ivory exports from Sudan in1983 and Belgium's ratification of CITES aresteps in the right direction, but are unlikely to beeffective on their own. Zaire banned all ivoryexports in 1980 but, despite notifying the CITESsecretariat to that effect, has not been adequatelyhelped by importing nations. Even the USimported Zaire ivory in 1985, despite their com-pliance with CITES (Caldwell and Barzdo, 1985;Martin, 1985). Most of Zaire's ivory leaves underfalse labels of origin, through ports of con-venience in neighbouring countries.

It is clear that efforts to date have fallen far short ofthe stringent measures required to halt the illegaland underground traffic that continues. Therecent measures proposed by African membersof CITES to define quotas of ivory within thebounds of sustained yield (Martin, 1985) nowoffer the chance of effective action, but only to theextent that they can be enforced. Unfortunately, itis enforcement capability that is lacking. Further-more, under the new system, ivory confiscated bythe authorities may be added on top of thedeclared exports, which may prove to be aloophole. Nor will the new measures touch theinvisible trade that is smuggled or leaves in thediplomatic bag.

United international police action to combat theillegal ivory trade is still urgently needed,especially the use of ivory databases to preventtraders 'whitewashing' ivory of illegal origin,which at present forms most of the trade. Thenewly formed Ivory Trade Monitoring Unit ofCITES can serve elephant conservation if it leadsto such action.African elephants: population trends

In the 'protected areas' emphasis needs to be onsupporting the man in the field, who should betrained and equipped to resist extensive, well-armed poaching operations. Without this thefuture looks bleak for elephants. Emphasis ondisciplined field forces will be unpalatable tomany conservationists. Unfortunately, enforce-ment of the law within the remaining 'protectedareas' is essential if they are to justify that name.

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