aes corporation: today. tomorrow. making it...

»AES Corporation: Today. Tomorrow. Making it Happen.Victoria Harker, Executive Vice President & CFOMerrill Lynch Power & Gas Conference New York, NYSeptember 25, 2007

AES Corporation 2

» Safe Harbor Disclosure

Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’s business operations may constitute “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and financial and operating performance. Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES’s current expectations based on reasonable assumptions. Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. These assumptions include, but are not limited to, continued normal or better levels of operating performance and electricity demand at our distribution companies and operational performance at our generation businesses consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements and incremental growth from investments at investment levels and rates of return consistent with prior experience. For additional assumptions see the Appendix to this presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed in AES’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including but not limited to the risks discussed under Item 1A “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2006, as well as our other SEC filings. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

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» A Global Opportunity

› Industry Leadership

– Over 25 years of development, construction & operational experience

– Operations in 28 countries on 5 continents managing $33 billion assets

› Diversified Portfolio

– 44 GW generation plants largely contracted under long-term contracts

– 13 Utilities

– Alternative energy business:

› Over 1,000 MW wind projects in operation

› Production of greenhouse gas emissions credits

› Strong Development Pipeline

– More than 25,000 MW of core power projects and 4,000 MW of wind projects in the pipeline

Contains Forward Looking Statements

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» AES is Among the Largest Global Power Companies

Note: Not ownership adjusted. Countries and locations include projects under construction.

13 Utilities with sales of over 73,000 GWh

127 Power Plants totaling 44 GW gross generation capacity

Coal 42%Gas 32%Hydro 17%Wind 3%Other Thermal 6%

1,015 MW Wind Generation in the United States


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› High free cash flow generation positions AES to take advantage of continued de-levering, opportunistic acquisitions and platform expansion opportunities

Adjusted Earnings Per Share(1) Operating Cash Flow

$1,497

$2,232$2,360

$2,250

» Track Record of Meeting our Commitments

(1)A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix(2)Mid-point of 2007 guidance


2004-2007 CAGR 39%

$0.40

$0.64

$0.93$1.07

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

2004 2005 2006 2007EAdjusted Earnings(1)

969

1,597 1,493 1,300

65 165250

528

570 702700

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2004 2005 2006 2007E (2)

Free Cash Flow(1) Environmental Capex Maintenance Capex

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B

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000 EP Tiete Gener

» Price Appreciation and Improved Credit Ratings

Market Cap (USD$MM)

2005 2006 2007

› Improvements in operational performance and financial profile are reflected in price appreciation at our public subsidiaries and credit ratings upgrades

Public Subsidiary Price Performance(1) Credit Ratings History(2)

(1)Monthly market cap data from 1/2005 through 7/2007(2)All ratings are as of August 31st of each respective year. Credit ratings for Gener, Chivor and IPL reflect Moody’s ratings that have been

assigned an equivalent S&P credit rating. Eletropaulo reflects S&P credit ratings.

Source: Bloomberg

Gener, Chile (Unsecured)

BB-

BB+BBB-

2005 2006 2007

IPL, U.S.A. (Issuer)

BBB-BBB BBB

2005 2006 2007

Eletropaulo, Brazil (Issuer)

B+

BB-

2005 2006 2007

Chivor, Colombia (Issuer)

B+BB-

BB

2005 2006 2007


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» Balanced Debt Maturity Profile

Senior Secured Credit FacilitiesSenior Unsecured Notes & Credit FacilitiesTrust Preferreds


› Average annual maturities within parent free cash flow generation

Recourse Debt & Trust Preferred Maturity Schedule

$200$202

$467 $423

$478

$213

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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› 72% of our generation portfolio is under long-term contracts(1)

› We actively monitor our remaining capacity and employ hedging strategies

Key Merchant Business: AES Eastern Energy – 1,268 MW of competitive generation in

New York

% Contracted / Hedged(2)

84% 76%

47%

2007 2008 2009

Volume-based

» Managing Commodity and Interest Rate Risks

(1)Includes all generation assets owned by AES or operated under management agreements and plants under construction(2)As of June 30, 2007(3)Balance of year(4)Fixed rate debt includes interest rate swaps

(3)


Fixed(4) Floating

› As a prudent policy, we maintain approximately 80% of our total debt in fixed rates to hedge our interest rate exposure

AES Consolidated Debt(2)

78%

22%

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» A Leader in Global Power and Alternative EnergyContains Forward Looking Statements

2 Billion Tons(3)

(2008-2012)

100,000 MW(2)

500-700 GW(1)

Global Potential within next 5 years

26 Million Tons / year

2,100 MW

6,500 MW(4)

AES Growth Assumptions in 2011 Guidance

Greenhouse Gas Offsets

Wind

Power

(1)CERA and IEA forecasts (2006)(2)Emerging Energy Research (March 2007)(3)World Bank (2007)(4)Includes Greenfield and M&A. In addition to 1,682 MW currently under construction.

› 4,000 MW on line

› 2,500 MW under construction

AES Corporation 10(1)Tolling fee, so fuel is not reflected in total revenues

» Development and Construction Experience

› In 2006 - 2007 completed 4 plants totaling 1,679 MW, all with long-term contracts

› Currently 1,682 MW under construction in 4 countries:


Bulgaria Chile Chile Panama Jordan

Project Maritza East Guacolda III Nueva Ventanas Changuinola Amman East

Type (Gross MW) 670 MW Lignite 152 MW Coal 267 MW Coal 223 MW Hydro 370 MW CCGT

Total Project cost $1.4bn $300mn $500mn $560mn $300mn

Leverage 70% 70% 80% 65% 75%

Financing secured?

AES equity already funded?

Expected annual revenue $300mn $115mn $43mn(1)

Commercial Operation Date (exp) 2009-10 Q3/Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 2008-09

~ $150mn to be funded over 3 - 4 years

$65mn $120mn

Contract Expiration Date 2024 2020 - 2025 2020 2020 2033 - 2034

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» Core Power Development Update» Core Power Development UpdateContains Forward Looking Statements

(1)Expected financial close 4Q07.(2)AES defines medium to advanced stage projects as projects that have achieved a particular milestone or milestones, but have not reached financial close.

>25,000 MW development pipeline~60% Greenfield, ~40% Platform Extension

2011Target

6,500 MW

Already announced1,762 MW:

Philippines 660 MW(1)

South Africa 1,102 MW(1)

15 GW projects in medium to advanced stages(2)

Asia & Middle East

47%

North America

5%

Latin America

25%

Europe, CIS and Africa

23%

Medium to Advanced Stage Projects Geographic breakdown

(15 GW)

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» Core Power Development Pipeline

GREENFIELD

Platform Expansion

Platform Expansion

Platform Expansion

Platform Expansion

PLATFORM EXPANSION

Greenfield

Greenfield

Greenfield

Greenfield

Type

49%

91%

83%

100%

51%

100%

70%

90%

Estimated Economic Ownership

India

Chile

Panama

N. Ireland

Turkey

India

Indonesia

Vietnam

Country

Hydro390Turkey Hydros (ICTAS Energy)

Coal1,200Chattisgarh

Coal1,200Musi Rawas

Coal1,200OPCG Expansion

Coal400Angamos

Hydro213Changuinola 2

Gas430Kilroot Expansion

Coal1,200Mong Duong

Fuel Estimated Gross MW

Project


› Examples of projects beyond early stage development:

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» Core Power Acquisition Example: MasinlocContains Forward Looking Statements

› 660MW (gross) coal fired power plant commissioned in 1998

› $930 million acquisition expected to be closed in Q4 2007

–Seller financing available for up to 60% of the purchase price

› Lowest cost thermal plant in the system

› Excellent entry point into the robust and growing Philippines market

› Opportunity for performance improvements

› Expansion options–Existing infrastructure supports expansion potential of

up to 600 MW

› $300 million+ in expected annual revenues

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› 670MW lignite-fired power plant

› $1.4 billion project cost–~70% (~$1 billion) non recourse financing provided by

commercial banks and multilaterals.

–AES equity commitment already funded through a letter of credit

› Strong commercial and financing terms–15 year contract with national utility

–15 year lignite supply agreement minimizes energy supply risks

› Letter of government support

› Construction started in 2006 and is expected to be completed in 2009-2010

› $300 million+ in expected annual revenues

» Greenfield Investment Example: BulgariaContains Forward Looking Statements

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» Alternative Energy: Wind Generation

Source: CERA

› Global installed capacity expected to more than triple by 2015

› AES currently operates over 1,000 MW wind generation

› Already achieved 400 MW of our 2,100 MW goal–186 MW acquisition from GE Energy in 2Q07–Completed construction of 233 MW Buffalo Gap II wind farm in 2Q07


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Global Installed CapacityMegawatts (MW)

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» Alternative Energy: Climate Change

› New environmental regulations expected to create a $10 billion a year market for emission offset credits

› Aggregation contracts signed in Europe, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and South America for over 8 million tons of annual offset credits


2005 2008 2012 2020

Allocation Below Business as Usual CaseTons per Year

EU ETS60 Million

KyotoPhase I

550 Million

Kyoto Phase II(Proposed)

1.5 to 3.0 Billion

Source: AES estimates

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» AES Climate Change Strategy

Business as UsualEmissions

Permissible Emissions

TechnicalShort

Development and deployment of

technologies thatreduce

direct emissions

Develop new project-based compliance

instruments through offset project

development and technology

development


› Strategic approach

–Invest in large scale, low cost methods for creating certified emissions reductions (CERs) in developing countries for delivery against Kyoto obligations

–Diversified investments in technologies, methodologies, and geographies

› Tactics

–Greenfield development–3rd party acquisition & partnerships

–Small project aggregation at low cost

–Technology development

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$1.55

$0.93

$1.07

(1)A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix(2)For 2008 through 2011, Diluted EPS from continuing operations and Adjusted EPS for the purposes of this slide are assumed to be the same

» Adjusted EPS(1) Guidance for the Next Five YearsContains Forward Looking Statements

$1.12$1.25

$1.45 $1.75

$2.15

$1.85

$1.20

$0.64

$0.40

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2006 – 2011 CAGR

13% - 18%

2004(2)(2) (2)(2)

$ Per Share

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» Forecast Shows Strong Cash Flow GrowthContains Forward Looking Statements

(1)A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Net Cash from Operating Activities Free Cash FlowSubsidiary Distributions

$2.4-2.7$2.3-2.5$2.2-2.3

$2.5-3.3

$3.0-4.0

1.5-1.8

1.2-1.4

1.6-2.0

1.8-2.6

2.3-3.3

1.2-1.41.1

1.2-1.6

1.4-2.1

1.5-2.5

$ Billions

(1)

(1)

AES Corporation 20(1)A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix(2)For 2011, Diluted EPS from continuing operations and Adjusted EPS for the purposes of this slide are assumed to be the same

» Adjusted EPS(1) Growth Driven by Four Factors

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$0.93$1.07

2006 AdjustedEPS(1)

2007 2011 Low(2)

2011 High(2)

$1.75

$2.15

Existing Operating Businesses

Alternative Energy

Core Power

Construction


$ Per Share

AES Corporation 21

» Summary

› Solid Fundamentals and Operating Model–Project Finance skills–Operating and Turnaround Expertise

› Global Reach, Local Insights

› Experienced in Leveraging Market Opportunities and Industry Dynamics

› Rigorous Capital Allocation and Risk Management

› Double Digit Earnings Growth (2006-2011)

› Strong and Growing Free Cash Flow


AES Corporation 22

» Appendix

AES Corporation 23

» AES Brazil Business Structure

100% V 100% E100% V 100% E

AES BNDES

Brasiliana

Sul Eletropaulo Tieté

InfoEnergy EletropauloTelecom

AESCommunications

50.1% V 46.2% E100% V 100% E

49.9% V 53.8% E

100% V 100% E

V = VotingE = EconomicNet AES ownership

50.1% V 46.2% E 50.1% V 46.2% E49.2% V 45.4% E

38.2% V 16.1% E 35.7% V 24.3% E

Holding Company

Intermediary Holding Co.

Operating company

Uruguaiana50.1% V 46.2% E

71.3% V 52.5% E 100% V 100% E

0% V 4.4% E Elpa98.3% V 98.3% E

77.8% V 31.0% E

100% V 100% E

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» AssumptionsForecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: (a) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; (b) businesses continue to operate in a manner consistent with or better than prior operating performance, including achievement of planned productivity improvements including benefits of global sourcing, and in accordance with the provisions of their relevant contracts or concessions; (c) new business opportunities are available to AES in sufficient quantity to achieve its growth objectives; (d) no material disruptions or discontinuities occur in GDP, foreign exchange rates, inflation or interest rates during the forecast period; and (e) material business-specific risks as described in the Company’s SEC filings do not occur individually or cumulatively. In addition, benefits from global sourcing include avoided costs, reduction in capital project costs versus budgetary estimates, and projected savings based on assumed spend volume which may or may not actually be achieved. Also, improvement in certain KPIs such as equivalent forced outage rate and commercial availability may not improve financial performance at all facilities based on commercial terms and conditions. These benefits will not be fully reflected in the Company’s consolidated financial results.

The cash held at qualifying holding companies (QHCs) represents cash sent to subsidiaries of the Company domiciled outside of the U.S. Such subsidiaries had no contractual restrictions on their ability to send cash to AES, the Parent Company. Cash at those subsidiaries was used for investment and related activities outside of the U.S. These investments included equity investments and loans to other foreign subsidiaries as well as development and general costs and expenses incurred outside the U.S. Since the cash held by these QHCs is available to the Parent, AES uses the combined measure of subsidiary distributions to Parent and QHCs as a useful measure of cash available to the Parent to meet its international liquidity needs. AES believes that unconsolidated parent company liquidity is important to the liquidity position of AES as a parent company because of the non-recourse nature of most of AES’s indebtedness.

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› Adjusted earnings per share – Defined as diluted earnings per share from continuing operations excluding gains or losses associated with (a) mark-to-market amounts related to FAS 133 derivative transactions, (b) foreign currency transaction impacts on the net monetary position related to Brazil and Argentina, (c) significant asset gains or losses due to disposition transactions and impairments, and (d) early retirement of recourse debt. AES believes that adjusted earnings per share better reflects the underlying business performance of the Company, and is considered in the Company’s internal evaluation of financial performance. Factors in this determination include the variability associated with mark-to-market gains or losses related to certain derivative transactions, currency gains and losses, periodic strategic decisions to dispose of certain assets which may influence results in a given period, and the early retirement of corporate debt.

› Free cash flow – Net cash flow from operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures. Maintenance capital expenditures reflect property additions less growth capital expenditures. AES believes that free cash flow is a useful measure for evaluating our financial condition because it represents the amount of cash provided by operations less maintenance capital expenditures as defined by our businesses, that may be available for investing or for repaying debt.

› Subsidiary distributions – Cash distributions (primarily dividends and interest income) from subsidiary companies to the parent company and qualified holding companies. These cash flows are the source of cash flow to the parent to meet corporate interest, overhead, cash taxes, and discretionary uses such as recourse debt reductions and corporate investments.

» Definitions of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

AES Corporation 26

» Reconciliation of 2011 Guidance Elements

$0.40

0.02

0.08

0.04

(0.01)

$0.27

2004

$0.64

-

-

0.03

-

$0.61

2005

$0.93

0.04

0.68

0.01

-

$0.20

2006

$1.07

-

-

0.01

0.02

$1.04

2007Reconciliation of 2003 and 2004 Adjusted EPS

Adjusted Earnings Per Share

Debt Retirement (Gains)/Losses

Net Asset (Gains)/Losses and Impairments

Currency Transaction (Gains)/Losses

FAS 133 Mark-to-Market (Gains)/Losses

Diluted Earnings Per Share From Continuing Operations

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow

Net Cash from Operating Activities

Less: Maintenance Capital Expenditures

Free Cash Flow

$2.4 to 2.7

0.8 to 0.7

$1.6 to 2.0

20092008

$2.3 to 2.5

0.8 to 0.7

$1.5 to 1.8

$2.5 to 3.3

0.7

$1.8 to 2.6

2010

$3.0 to 4.0

0.7

$2.3 to 3.3

20112007

$2.2 to 2.3

1.0 to 0.9

$1.2 to 1.4


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