Adecco Job Market Perspective 2009
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- 1. 2009 Job market perspectives An in-depth look at the current and future state of our labor market.
2. What a difference a year makes.As we neared the end of 2007, warning signs were beginning to emergeof an economic slowdown. In 2008, these signs accelerated and transformedinto a state of volatility and uncertainty for the U.S. and global economies.Many events contributed to make this a reality. 2009 Job Market Perspectives 2 3. The housing and credit crises bringing long-debated issuescontinued to mobilize. Gas prices like healthcare, immigration andsoared as the cost of oil peakededucation reform back into thein the summer at around $140 anational dialogue.barrel. The banking industry wasThese monumental economictaken by storm as many reputable,and political developments did notstoried banks went bankrupt,happen in isolation. In fact, theymerged or required rescuing.impacted all of us in our everydayThe U.S. government approvedroles as consumers, homeowners,an historic $700 billion economicvoters, tax payers, and particularlybailout. A hard-fought presidentialas workers.election dominated headlines, In our 2009 Job Market Perspectives report, we explore the current and future state of our labor market, piecing together where our present reality falls on both global and historic scales. We will look beyond the numbers to provide a holistic analysis of the national jobs situation and outline where were currently seeing job opportunities both by industry and region. 2009 Job Market Perspectives 3 4. The economics: The job market switches gears. 2008 began with anThis trend would only continue for the rest of the year, with unemployment rising from immediate about-facejust under 5 percent to around the 7 percent for the U.S. labor market.mark combined with over 2 million total job losses for the year. Following a year where over a million While these bottom-line numbers represent jobs were added to our economy, January the sum total of whats happening nationally, 2008 marked the first month since the its important to dig deeper and look at how 2001 recession ended in which the Labor this picture changes vastly by region and Department reported declines to payrolls. by industry, as well as how our job market compares to those in other countries. From 2006-2008, unemployment rosefrom just under 5 percent to around 7 percent. 2009 Job Market Perspectives 4 5. The economics: Looking beyond our borders. According to the Organization for Economic borders are less defined than ever. The Co-operation and Development (OECD) theeconomic slowdown is not only impacting average global unemployment rate reached the U.S., but is being felt globally, with the 6 percent by the third quarter, tying closelyU.S. job market right in the center of it all. to the U.S. average for the same time period at 6.1 percent. While our rate is weakerGlobal unemployment rates as of August-November 2008 than some of our European neighbors like the UK and Italy, the U.S. continues to be China (as of June) 4.0% positioned closely to other leading economies, Japan4.2% even favorably as compared to GermanyRussia 5.3% and France.UK 5.7%Italy6.0% While unemployment varies widely aroundCanada 6.1% the world Norways unemployment is lessU.S. 6.7% than 3 percent while South Africa is overGermany7.2% 20 percent it is safe to say that the world continues to become more connected and Brazil 7.6%France 8.0%South Africa23.2%2009 Job Market Perspectives 5 6. The economics: Looking backward and forward to put today in perspective.While we are certainly living in historic times, workers are expected to enter the workforcejust how historic are the current conditions during the same period. This means that,from a job market standpoint? Feelings ofby 2015, the U.S. will face a shortage of moreuneasiness and concern certainly intensify than 10 million workers. Despite the economicwhen the unemployment rate rises beyondconditions, from a pure demographics andthe 6 percent mark, but, over the last 50population perspective, demand for workersyears, national unemployment has fluctu- will be on the rise, creating opportunitiesated between a low of 4 percent and a high in the coming years.of 10 percent. So, while this is the highestunemployment rate weve seen in quite sometime, it is still substantially lower than the Change in nonfarm payrolls in thousands9 percent experienced during the mid-1970s. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNov DecAdditionally, when you look at the long-term0808 08 08 08 08 08 08 0808 0808view, there is more positive news for us to-8consider. Data from the U.S. Department-39-47-67-67-82 -100of Labors Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)-127that tracks expected job openings versusworking population indicates that, in the -320coming years, 70 million Baby Boomers will-403reach retirement age while only 40 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics-533 -524 U.S. unemployment rates, 1958-200810% 9% 8%7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%1%19581968 19781988 1998 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics2009 Job Market Perspectives6 7. The economics: Where weve been. Election season.halt auto sales and keep highways and roads across the country less 2008 marked one of the most crowded than in previous years. momentous and closely followedIn fact, while gas prices tied for presidential elections in Americanthird on a list of worries presented history. From the news media to to American workers in 2007, it took office water coolers around the the top spot in 2008, according to country, people were passionate our 2008 Workplace Insights survey and highly engaged around the conducted in September 2008 when issues and the varying stancesgas prices were at an all time high. presented by each candidate. In fact, 50 percent of American Credit crisis. workers admitted to talking about politics at work according to our The credit crunch, which took form 2008 Workplace Insights seriesin 2007, boomed right into 2008 survey. On November 4, the countrymaking it more challenging for elected Barack Obama as its first consumers to get mortgages, African-American president whileleases and loans. Businesses Congress moved to a democraticalso had to meet more stringent majority, emphasizing a general standards to secure lines of credit shift in alignment and focus for theand access liquidity, making both American public. With continued business maintenance and expan- rising unemployment and job sion projects more challenging losses, American workers will to pursue and execute. The credit now be focused on seeing howcrisis presented particular challenges the new administration can bringfor the credit intermediation sector growth back to the economyof the economy, which lost thousands and job market. of jobs in 2008 as credit vehicles like mortgages, loans and leasesPumped-up were harder to come by and solicit.gas prices. Passing the bailout. The price of oil was volatile In early October 2008, following throughout the year and many weeks of extensive debate and were alarmed and concerned negotiation, Congress passed into when the average price of a gallon law a $700 billion economic bailout of gas rose beyond $4 in the middle plan meant to rescue and stimulate of the summer. Prices sharply growth for the U.S. job market and declined later in the year, but these economy. While leaders on Capitol temporary highs were enough to 2009 Job Market Perspectives 7 8. Hill were able to agree on the need As of December 2008, the industry for a bailout, how to spend it is anlost almost 150,000 jobs for the entirely different issue. Many areyear, showcasing the direct impact divided on which institutions and of the turmoil on the workforce of industries should reap the benefits these institutions. of this historic rescue package. From a workforce perspective, Auto manufacturing the bailout could potentially mean struggles. much needed relief for those workers in troubled sectors whose employers Following the release of third quarter need an infusion of cash to helpearnings, the financial woes facing bring stability back to their business. the countrys auto manufacturers were showcased in a new light,Financial raising red flags around the indus- trys ability to maintain itself and services turmoil. bringing the big three auto manu- The banking industry experiencedfacturers to Capitol Hill in search one of the most challenging years of government endorsed financial in its history. The subprime mort-relief. Earnings reports revealed just gage meltdown, credit crunch andhow much the economic slowdown continued market meltdown causedand credit crisis have impacted major financial institutions to fileAmerican consumers resources to for bankruptcy, merge or requirebuy cars, hindering manufacturers federal assistance. In Septemberaccess to capital and ability to churn alone, we witnessed the combina-profits yielding over 160,000 job tion of institutions like JPMorganlosses in this sector from December Chase and Washington Mutual,2007 to 2008. Wells Fargo and Wachovia, and Bank of America and Merrill Lynch. 2009 Job Market Perspectives 8 9. The economics: Where were going. Monitoring change. (PERI) and the Center for AmericanProgress, which encourages the Much of 2008s election season government to invest some $100 revolved around the idea ofbillion in green jobs, the country change. In 2009, people will could stand to add some 2 million be watching closely to measure new positions to our economy the effectiveness of the new in the coming years as a result presidential administration andof this initiative. Congress. These new leaders will be highly scrutinized for theirGDP growth. ability to effectively navigate the country through the current turmoilThird quarter 2008 marked the first and volatility, quickly needingquarter in which we experienced to prove their ability to matchGDP contraction which also campaign promises, improve the continued into the fo