adcirclite -nc project updates

13
AdcircLite-NC Project Updates Jesse Bikman Brian Blanton

Upload: felix

Post on 20-Feb-2016

38 views

Category:

Documents


5 download

DESCRIPTION

AdcircLite -NC Project Updates. Jesse Bikman Brian Blanton. Progress since last meeting. Ran cross validation with different parameters included/excluded (perturbation scenarios) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

AdcircLite-NC Project Updates

Jesse BikmanBrian Blanton

Page 2: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

Progress since last meeting

• Ran cross validation with different parameters included/excluded (perturbation scenarios)

• Augmented parameter set with DB_latP1/DB_latP2 describing distance along intersection with given latitude parallels

• DB_latP1/DB_latP2 better characterizes the storm population than TH/DB

• Defined some new error metrics to supplement evaluation of cross validation runs

Page 3: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

New Distance ParametersLongitude separation between track line intersection point and

reference longitudes on latitudes 34.5 and 36.0 N

DB_latP2

DB_latP1

Page 4: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

Parameter perturbation scenarios

Parameters Scenario name CPD RMW H_B TS Vmax DB_latP1 DB_latP21. base 2. base_no_CPD 3. base_no_Vmax 4. base_no_CPD_no_Vmax

We have adopted the 2 latitude distances in lieu of the distance/angle parameters.

Page 5: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

Error metrics

Si = original model value at response point iS*i = surrogate model value at response point iEi = error at response point i = S*i – Si

N = total # response pointsM = # response points where 0.5(Si + S*i) > threshold value

Page 6: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates

Scenario Statistics

RMSE [m] Response Weighted RMSE [m] Threshold RMSE [m]Scenario AR2 Mean Max mean max mean max1. base 0.96 0.12 0.21 0.20 0.43 0.14 0.262. base_no_CPD 0.97 0.10 0.18 0.17 0.34 0.12 0.233. base_no_Vmax 0.97 0.11 0.18 0.17 0.31 0.12 0.224. base_no_CPD_no_Vmax 0.74 0.35 0.65 0.62 1.37 0.41 0.80

Page 7: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 8: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 9: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 10: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 11: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 12: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates
Page 13: AdcircLite -NC Project Updates