Adapting to the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture: A model-based exploration

across different scales in Ethiopia.

PhD Proposal

By

Belay Tseganeh Kassie

Supervisors:

Prof. dr. ir. H.van Keulen (PPS/PRI)

Prof. dr. R.P. Rötter (MTT)

Dr.ir. H. Hengsdijk (PRI)

Contents of the presentation

� General background

� Hypothesis of the research

� Objectives of the research

� Research questions

� Methodology

� Expected outputs

General background

Location of study areas

North Wollo

Central rift valley

General background

Central rift valley

� Location: 38°00’-39°30’ E

7°00’-8°30’ N

� Elevation: 1600 - 3000 masl

� Catchment area: 1.0 Mln ha

� Population: about 1.5 Million

� Annual rainfall: 700 - 1400 mm

� Mean temperature: 14 - 19 °C

� dominantly cereal-based mixed farming system

� It is one of the environmentally vulnerable areas

CRV has dominantly plain topography

General background (Cont.)

� Location: 8° 95' - 12º 8'N

38º 5' - 40º 20’E

� Elevation: 700 - 4100 masl

� Catchment area: 1.64 Mln ha

� Population: about 1.73 Million

� Annual rainfall: 650 mm ( lowlands) to 1200 mm ( highlands)

� Mean temperature : 16 to 250c

� Has a long history of settled agriculture dominated by cereal-based farming systems

� Vulnerable to frequent drought episodes that often lead to crop

failure and associated acute famines

North Wollo

NOW has rugged topography

General background(Cont)

� 48% of the GDP

� 85 % of the labor force

� 88% of the export

Crop & Livestock Dependant Population in Ethiopia

Crop

Livestock

Urban

75%

15%10%

Agriculture is the main economic sector

General background(cont.)

Area under crop (2007/2008)

Tons of crops produced

Crop production in terms of area and volume is dominated by cereals

Source (CSA, 2008)

General background(cont.)

Area and production of grain crops byregion, 2007/08

The two case study regions are main crop producers

(Source:USDA.http:/151.121.3.140/pecad2/highlights/2002/10/ethiopia/baseline/Eth_Crop_Prod

uction.htm)

General background (Cont.)

Performance of agriculture is highly dependant on climatic conditions

(Source : World bank, 2006)

Rainfall in most of the time is erratic and unreliable

Year to year variability of rainfall in the CRV

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Mean annual rainfall (mm)

General background (Cont.)

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Annual rainfall (mm) Mean annual rainfall (mm)

Annual rainfall distribution in North wollo

General background (Cont.)

Climatic water balance of North Wollo

Agriculture is strictly constrained by narrow rainfall band

HP

GP

HP = Humid period , GP = Growing period

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Rainfall PET 0.5 PET

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General background (Cont.)

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Climatic water balance of the central rift valley

HP

GP

General background (Cont.)

Frequent drought- the most prominant evidence for climate effect

Dismal crop failureDrought is the most significant type of disaster in Ethiopia.

Source: ReliefWeb 2003

General background (Cont.)

General background (Cont.)

Frequency of flood increased - another aspect of climate effect

General background (Cont.)

� A recent study on vulnerability and poverty in Africa

(thornton et al , 2006) shows that Ethiopia is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and change

� Quantitative climate change impact assessments made so far are limited in the country

� Study on impacts of climate variability and change and exploring alternative adaptation strategies is a major concern to Ethiopia’s agricultural production and food security

Main research hypothesis and objectives

Hypothesis

� Climate variability and projected future climate changewill have increasingly negative impacts on Ethiopian cropproduction systems (and, consequently, on food securityand rural livelihoods), and will exceed the limits to

adaptation in the most vulnerable agricultural regions.

General objectives

� Identification of potential adaptation strategies that

�Reduce agriculture’s vulnerability to climate variability

�Offset potential negative climate change impacts

�Maximize opportunities

Specific objectives:

� Quantitatively assess the potential impacts of climate variability and different future climate change scenarios on crop production

� Identify and evaluate existing adaptation and risk management strategies

� Explore alternative future adaptation options

� Examine to what extent the various adaptation options can contribute to realization of multiple goals (production, income,environmental) at the farm household level for stylized farm types in the case study areas

� How current climate variability is affecting the crop productionsystem?

� What are the potential impacts of climate change?

� What climate-robust adaptation strategies exist or need to be developed to minimize or eliminate the negative impacts?

� How can farmers and other stakeholders be supported in implementing promising adaptation strategies that reduce climate change impacts, increase production and improve livelihoods?

Research questions

Research methodology

General approaches of the research:

� Crop growth simulation technique

� Climate change scenario

� Statistical models

� Geographical information system

� Empirical filed research methods (interviews, focused group discussions, Expert judgement…)

� Farmhouse hold/bio-economic models

� Stakeholder participatory approaches

� Multi-criteria techniques

Specific Research methodologies for each objective

� Climate change scenarios� Emission scenarios and GCMs

outputs to the year 2050

Downscaling

Climate change scenarios

Objective-1: Assessing impacts of climate variability and change

Research methodology (Cont.)

� Crop Growth Simulation

� A crop growth simulation model

will be used to assess the potential impacts of climate variability and change on production of major cereal crops under the base line and climate change scenarios

� Simulated changes in yield, phenological development, biomass, water requirement , length of growing period will be analysed

Crop growth modelling

Research methodology

� GIS application

� Spatial data base will be established using GIS

� the linkage of crop models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) will be applied for spatial analysis of the crop simulation model output

DatabaseDatabase

Crop dataCrop data

SocialSocial

Soil& land useSoil& land use

economieconomi

ClimateClimate

c

� Analytical procedures

Emissions GCM/RCM

Climate change scenarios

Current climate base line

Crop growth simulation model & GIS

Simulation of crop growth

Model validation

Bio-physical data of the CRV and NOW

Analysis of changes in crop production parameters (Biomass, grain yields, length of growing periods,

crop water requirements)

Analysis of causes and implications

Identification and evaluation of Adaptation strategies

Land evaluation

Down scaling/Bias correction

Modified version of the IPCC generalized steps in developing an adaptation strategy will be used

� Analytical procedures (Cont)

Carter et al 1994

Objective-2: Assessing current climate risk management strategies and

exploring future adaptation options

� interviews with key informers, focused group discussions and questionnaires will be used to identify� how households in the

study areas adapt in response to climate-related problems

� potential adaptation options

� Barriers (if any) and opportunities

Discussion with local community is the key tool

Assessing adaptation options (Cont.)

� Current activities and strategic plans of various local stakeholders with respect to climate risk management will be assessed

� Crop simulation model output

� Out puts of the crop growth model run under the same climate scenarios but with different management options, for instance:

� Changing planting date

� Changing cultivars

� Changing input levels

� using irrigation

Assessing adaptation options (Cont.)

• The adaptation options will be characterized with respect to a suite of attributes such as

� spatial scale (localized or widespread),

� temporal scale (short-term or long-term),

� purposefulness (autonomous or planned)

� timing (anticipatory or responsive),

� effect (prevent, tolerate)

� form (institutional, technological)

� Tools for rating the relative merits of possible adaptation options willbe applied

� Multi-criteria assessment techniques

Methodology (Cont.)

Objective 3: Farm level multiple goal analysis of adaptation

options

� The resources available within a farm and their spatial distribution may pose particular constraints for the feasibility of adaptation strategies

� Feasibility of adaptation measures depends on farm household characteristics and objectives

� Evaluation of the socio-economic and environmental performance of farms as a result of climate-robust technologies is vital in developing adaptation strategies

Farm level analysis of adaptation options (Cont.)

� Bio-economic models are widely used to evaluate the performance of adaptation options with respect to economic, social and environmental impacts

� The consequences of adaptation options for farm management decisions will be evaluated using

( i) bio-economic modelling approach at farm level

(ii) Stakeholder participatory approach� Stakeholders (GOs, NGOs, local community) will

discuss and evaluate the various adaptation options and their policy implications

Expected output

� Quantified information on impacts of current climate variability and potential anticipated climate change

� Potential adaptation strategies/options

� Methodological frameworks

� Increased stakeholders awareness

THANK YOU