adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario c-ciarn – ontario december 5, 2002

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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

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Page 1: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO

C-CIARN – ONTARIODECEMBER 5, 2002

Page 2: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

C-CIARN Mission

The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.

Page 3: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002
Page 4: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

C-CIARN Structure

Fisheries (Office at DFO Nanaimo)

Health (Office at HC

Ottawa)

Forest (Office at CFS Edmonton)

Coastal Zone (Office at BIO Dartmouth)

Landscape Hazards (Office at GSC Ottawa)

Water Resources (Office at McGill U., Montreal)

Quebec (Office at Ouranos, Montreal)

Ontario (Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury)

British Columbia (Office at UBC, Vancouver)

Atlantic (Office at Dalhousie U., Halifax)

Prairies (Office at PARC, U. of Regina)

North (Office at Northern Climate

Exchange, Whitehorse)

YukonNWTNunavut

C-CIARN Board

Steering Committee

National C-CIARN Coordinating Office

Sectors Regions

Advisory Committee

Prov/Terragencies

Universities

Communities

NGOs Private SectorFederal

Depts.

Agriculture (Office at U. of Guelph)

Page 5: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

The Ontario Network

Non Governmental4%

Federal13%

Provincial18%

Munincipal12%

Industry10%

Research Units7%

Academia24%

Other9%

ENGOS3%

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258 communities with population > 1,000

Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M

13 communities >100,000

7 communities 50,000 – 99,000

37 communities 10,000 – 49,900

201 communities 1,000 – 9,999

Communities in Ontario

Stats Canada, 2001 census

Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges

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Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)

Long Term Temperature ChangesLong Term Temperature Changes

0

500

3000 km

2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995

2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995

2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995

Page 13: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Projected W inter P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090Com bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel

Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Projected W inter P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090Com bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel

Some increased winterprecipitation over OntarioMore rain – less snow

Page 14: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Projected Sum m er P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090C om bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel

Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Projected Sum m er P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090C om bined E ffects of P ro jected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - C anadian M odel

Changed summerprecipitation- droughts- food productionAlso- changes in extremes

Page 15: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Lakes Michigan-

Huron

174

175

176

177

X

X

Lake Ontario

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.5

Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges

X Average, 1918-1998

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

172

173

174

175

X

Lake Erie

X

182.5

Lake Superior

183

183.5

184

X

X

1 metre dropin lake level

possible

X

X

Page 16: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Droughts and Low Water Levels

• severe drought 1997-99• low lake levels; beached harbours• groundwater supply concerns• some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s

Cumulative Precipitation Index for Brantford

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Hydrological Drought Year

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n In

de

x (

%)

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Page 18: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Impacts on Agriculture

Changes• warmer

temperatures

•drier or wetter

• increased

frequency of

extreme events

•enhanced

atmospheric CO2

PositiveIncreased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO2

Longer growing seasons

Accelerated maturation rates

Possibility of growing new crops

NegativeIncreased insect infestations

Crop damage from extreme heat

Increased moisture stress and drought

Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy

Increased soil erosion

Page 19: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Adaptation PurposeCrop Development Breed new varieties and hybrids to cop

with changes in climate and environment

Crop Selection To take advantage of crops that potentially suited to the new conditions such as a

longer growing season

Farm Production Practices Diversify crop and livestock types and varieties.

Land Use Locate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks

Page 20: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Physiological Elevated CO2 Process

Warmer Temp./ Longer frost-free season

Increased drought (severity and frequency)

Photosynthesis Increased but possible limitations

Increased but possible limitations

Increased

Development Shortened growing season

Earlier bud break. Later winter frost hardiness

Earlier cessation of bud elongation

Susceptibility to stress

Increased drought tolerance

Potential increase in spring and winter freezing

Increased sensitivity to other stresses

Page 21: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Adaptation Purpose

Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate

Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease

Plant drought -adapted species and genotypes

Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes

Plant climate - adapted species

Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently

Page 22: ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

Adaptation Process

Understanding Vulnerability

Engage stakeholders

Those affectedKey decision makers

Use experience to assess impacts and damages

Assess current vulnerability

Climate / environmentSocioeconomicPolicy and development

Project future conditions

Develop / implement appropriate policies / practices

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Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

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