Adapting to Climate Change: Local and Global Perspectives

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Presentation by Dr Simon Gerrard to Norfolk Climate Change Conference March 27th 2009

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<ul><li> 1. Adapting to Climate Change: Local and Global Perspectives Dr Simon Gerrard Chief Technical Officer Low Carbon Innovation Centre </li> <li> 2. 2C 5C? </li> <li> 3. What effects are predicted? <ul><li><ul><li>UKCIP02 </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>The UK will continue to get warmer </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Hotter, drier summers with more very hot summer days and droughts </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Milder, wetter winters with more bouts of heavy precipitation and floods </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Sea levels will continue to rise; storm surges becoming more frequent </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>UK CIP08 scenarios coming soon! </li></ul></li></ul></li> <li> 4. Impacts in Norfolk <ul><li><ul><li>Agriculture; food preparation and storage </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Built environment working/home/transport </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Outdoor vs. indoor </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Logistics and supply chains </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Finance - insurance </li></ul></li></ul>Living with Climate Change in the East of England. East of England Sustainability Round Table. 2002 </li> <li> 5. Response of wider systems <ul><li><ul><li>SEMBE Scenarios </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Co-evolution of social, political, economic, technological and environmental drivers </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Climate change, energy security, and fuel poverty are key drivers </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Range of decarbonisation mechanisms </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul>Foresight Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Project (2008). Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London. </li> <li> 6. Scenarios Will the world be open, interdependent and multi-lateral in outlook or will fragmentation occur, with strongly independent states or regions engaging in bi-lateral approaches? Will the focus of future investments and innovation in the UK favour disruptive new technologies which stimulate new systems, or technologies targeted on exploitation of existing systems? </li> <li> 7. Norfolk - a resourceful region? <ul><li><ul><li> Fortress Norfolk mentality will help create local focus on energy security </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Opportunity for trade in 2 nd generation biofuel from agriculture though food supplies take precedence </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Retrofitting existing buildings is a major challenge </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Rural characteristics and low population density are beneficial </li></ul></li></ul></li> <li> 8. Norfolk a sunshine state? <ul><li><ul><li>Local focus is strong </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Significant opportunities for innovation (Norwich Research Park; Hethel Engineering Centre etc.) </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Increased carbon literacy through smart metering </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Carbon trading system proposed for Rackheath Eco-town is extended county-wide </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Opportunity for trade in 2 nd generation biofuel from agriculture though food supplies take precedence </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>New community structures empower local focus on decision-making </li></ul></li></ul></li> <li> 9. Norfolk greener growth? <ul><li><ul><li>Norfolk contributes to large scale renewable energy generation (UEA, Rackheath &amp; Power House biomass; offshore wind) </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Rackheath Eco-town is a demonstrator for the nation, Europe and rest of the world </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Eco-innovation hub(s) on the Norwich Research Park </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Stimulated by widespread community engagement, Norwich, market towns and coastal areas are demonstration test-beds for new approaches to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to climate change </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Norfolk pride in eco-innovation taken worldwide </li></ul></li></ul></li> <li> 10. Norfolk creative carbon? <ul><li><ul><li>Carbon capture and storage industry takes off in Norfolk offshore (gas fields) and onshore (biochar) </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Carbon management expertise at UEA, Research Park, Hethel provides a focal point. </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>London is the centre of world carbon trading but some carbon specialists in finance industry relocate to Norfolk. </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Limited opportunity for urban renewal projects (Anglia Square?) for new mixed use developments. </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>New low carbon community at Rackheath inspires others throughout Norfolk. </li></ul></li></ul></li> <li> 11. Climate Change Threat or Opportunity? <ul><li><ul><li>Need to act now </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Norfolk playing catch-up on climate change strategy but is well placed to capitalise on opportunities </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>Innovation in energy and agri-sectors </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li><ul><li>New opportunities in carbon finance </li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Significant local threats from sea level rise and flooding </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Ageing building stock, population and agriculture are vulnerable to hotter summer temperatures </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Disruption to global systems (energy, food, supply chains) will impact Norfolk </li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><ul><li>Need widespread public engagement programme to generate and maintain momentum </li></ul></li></ul></li> </ul>