climate change Maintaining ecosystem services for human well-being in the

Namakwa District Municipality, South Africa

adapting to

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Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment Project Leads Amanda Bourne, Conservation South AfricaDr Stephen Holness, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Prof Guy Midgley, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Dr Camila Donatti, Conservation International

The Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment was conducted by;Conservation South Africa, Conservation International, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety and their International Climate Initiative Programme, the Provincial Government of the Northern Cape, the Namakwa District Municipality, the 6 Namakwa Local Municipalities, SANBI, Watees Consulting Pty (Ltd), and the Department of Environment and Nature Conservation.

Bordering Namibia in the far northwest of South Africa’s Northern Cape Province, the 126 800 ha Namakwa District Municipality (NDM) is home to 126,000 people, at a population density of 1/km2. Located at the heart of the Succulent Karoo the District is made up of 6 local municipalities, Kamiesberg, Nama Khoi, Richtersveld, Khai Ma, Hantam, and Karoo Hoogland. Its location is an important feature of the area as the Succulent Karoo is one of only two semi-arid biodiversity hotspots in the world, and exhibits by far the highest plant diversity of any arid ecosystem. Having both summer and winter rainfall arid zones contributes extensively to the NDM’s exceptional biodiversity. The Succulent Karoo falls primarily in the District’s winter rainfall region, along the coast, and a large area of summer rainfall Nama Karoo and small patches of the Mediterranean climate Fynbos are found in the extreme south west of the District. Impressively the NDM contains 105 distinct vegetation types. The Succulent Karoo biodiversity hotspot alone is home to more than 6000 plant species, 250 bird species, 78 different mammals, 132 species of reptile and amphibian, and an unknown number of insect species. There are also high levels of endemism, with more than 40% of these species, particularly the unique and various indigenous succulents, found nowhere else on earth. The world’s largest quiver tree forests (Aloe dichotoma, a charismatic plant known locally as the kokerboom) grow near Loeriesfontein, Kenhardt, and Onseepkans, and the region’s many geophytes and daisies make for unparalleled spring flower displays. The most widespread economic activity in the region is livestock grazing, with about 95% of the landscape grazed extensively by sheep and goats. As such, human well-being in the region is sustained primarily by these rich ecosystems and the services they provide, in terms of freshwater, grazing for animals, and soil erosion control.

The Namakwa District Municipality Table of contents

3 The Namakwa District Municipality;

4 Threats to Natural Resources;

5 Climate Change Impacts;

6 Ecological Vulnerability;

10 Socio-economic Vulnerability;

12 Adapting to Climate Change

14 Tools & Resources

15 References

This document summarises the outcomes of a climate change vulnerability assessment, of expected climate change related hazards and their impact on terrestrial biodiversity and related human well-being, in the Namakwa District Municipality of South Africa, completed by Conservation South Africa, an affiliate of Conservation International, and its partners, in 2012.

Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment Project Contributors Lead Author, Amanda Bourne, Conservation South AfricaMalinda Gardiner, Conservation South AfricaTessa Mildenhall, Conservation South AfricaSarshen Marais, Conservation South AfricaFarayi Madziwa, Conservation South AfricaReginald Christiaan, Conservation South AfricaAnton du Plessis, Consultant

Conservation South Africa (CSA)

Mission South Africa’s Hotspots are restored and maintained to provide water, food and climate change resilience for the long-term benefit of people and nature.

VisionTo promote and support conservation, restoration, and sustainable land use in South Africa’s Hotspots as an essential element of food security and land reform, human and economic development, and building resilience to the impacts of climate change.

Photo credits©Tessa Mildenhall©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro©CSA/K Swartz©Nick Helme©CSA/Green Renaissance©CSA/Jacob Cloete©CSA/Alex Marsh©CSA/Amanda Bourne

Map credits©CSA/Stephen Holness©CSA/Halcyone Muller

Illustration:©CSA/Tessa Mildenhall

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Multiple impacts on the natural resources of the Namakwa District existing pressures climate change impacts

Overgrazing:The most extensive pressure on the landscape is from livestock farming and although stock limits and grazing plans exist, signs of overgrazing are widespread. This is especially evident in communal areas where motives for farming with livestock are not purely profit driven and where limited incentives and economic alternatives exist.

Over abstraction of Water Resources:Most settlements depend on groundwater and water imported from the region’s only perennial river, the Orange River. Half of all settlements already use more than 80% of the available water

Natural Disasters:The NDM is a naturally arid area, with an annual average rainfall of about 200mm. The area is subject to periodic droughts, which can have a devastating impact on the ability of the landscape to sustain livestock. Desiccated land is also more prone to flooding when the rains fall.

Unsustainable land use:Unsustainable land uses common in the area include: ploughing of wetlands and natural veld for fodder cropping, uncontrolled harvesting of natural products, and irresponsible tourism activities in sensitive areas.

Increasing aridity:A combination of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures could have very adverse effects on water availability, water quality, agricultural productivity, human health, and the biodiversity that underpins much of the region’s economic activity. Water, however, will likely be the most impacted resource.

Other hazards:Other climate change hazards we investigated are shown to be low risk. These include sea level rise and storm surges, as the Namakwa coast is relatively protected by its steep, rocky, and isolated coastline. It was also found that CO2 fertilisation of grasses and changes in fog patterns were unlikely to have a significant impact on the region.

Increasing temperatures:Global climate change will act as a ‘risk multiplier’, exacerbating these existing pressures. Average annual temperatures vary from year to year, but are expected to see a 1-2°C rise by 2050 and 3-4°C by 2100. In the temperature scenario maps (below), all three scenarios predict that average annual temperatures will increase by 2050. This is likely to lead to an increase in overall aridity in the

Changes in rainfall patterns:Changes in Rainfall Patterns: Rainfall is variable between years, but is expected to decrease along the west coast of South Africa. The rainfall scenario maps (page 6), show greater uncertainty with the best case scenario indicating small increases in rainfall in certain areas, while the intermediate and worst case scenarios predict a reduction in rainfall across the NDM. The most dramatic reductions occur in present-day higher rainfall areas.

Destructive or Illegal Mining:Transformation from mining has put significant pressure on the mineral rich NDM. Open caste and alluvial diamond mining activities along the coast and river flood plains have transformed the coastline, whilebase metal, gypsum, and quartz mining continues.

Fresh Water

Healthy catchments rivers and wetland networks recharge ground water and supply communities with fresh water.

Succulent Karoo VeldGrazing & Cropping

Healthy, natural veld provides food for livestock and other natural products.

Natural Beauty

Dramatic landscapes, wide open spaces and beautiful spring flowers encourage visitors and create jobs.

Mineral Wealth

Namaqualand is mineral rich with copper, zinc, diamonds and gypsum etc.

Coastal Resources

The rich, cold Benguela current nourishes fish, kelp and shellfish.

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Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa DistrictClimate change, related to rainfall and temperature in the Namakwa District Municipality, is highly likely to have an impact on biome stability, endemic species survival, and the availability and quality of freshwater. Existing pressures on the landscape will be exacerbated by Climate change impacts and agricultural productivity, in the region, will be affected by an increase in aridity, which will have negative impacts on biomass production and water resources.

Current scenario

Envelope: Namaqua biomes

Envelope: current biome

Temperature vulnerabilityCurrent scenario

Temperature medium risk Rainfall medium risk

Rainfall vulnerabilityCurrent scenario

Climate Envelopes: Biome Stability

South Africa has nine biomes, four of which are found within the Namakwa District, namely the Succulent Karoo, Nama-Karoo, Fynbos and Desert biomes. Each biome has a characteristic ‘climate envelope’, a range and pattern of temperature and rainfall values, within which it occurs.

Scientific understanding of the influence of climate on vegetation types dictates that, as the climate changes, an area that is currently climatically suited to one biome might become climatically suited to another. This would cause climate-related stress for some components of the biome. Maps were developed showing the best, worst and median

case scenarios for temperature and rainfall.

Statistical modelling was used to develop a biome distribution model, which predicts the distribution of biomes based on climate data to 2050. Some key outcomes of the modelling are:

• Areas with a climate envelope characteristic of Succulent Karoo largely persist under all scenarios.

• The climate envelope found in the Nama-Karoo area of the NDM is likely to remain stable under the best case and median scenarios, but changes to a Desert climate

envelope in the north, under the worst case scenario.

• Under the best case scenario, the core portions of the Fynbos, typically located in the mountainous areas, remain within the current biome envelope. The islands of Fynbos found in the NDM are, however, likely to come under increasing stress in higher risk scenarios, with the climate envelopes in these areas becoming more like Succulent Karoo.

• Areas with a climate similar to the current Desert biome are likely to expand in the future.

Envelope: medium risk

Envelope: low risk

Envelope: high risk

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Impact on freshwater:The NDM is a naturally water scarce area, with low rainfall and relatively high average temperatures. This has resulted in a high average aridity index. Changes in either temperature or rainfall regimes will impact negatively on water availability in the region, as well as on water quality, through, for example, increasing evaporation rates and increasing pressures on groundwater resources. With only one perennial river in the region, seasonal rivers, wetlands networks, and groundwater have provided a vital fresh water ecosystem service. These have, however, been undervalued, as the region contributes only a small fraction of South Africa’s national freshwater.

Impact on endemic species:Showing areas of biome stability under climate change does not necessarily imply that impacts will not be extremely serious for a very large number of species. Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change, despite some inherent species resilience and tolerance of arid conditions. Some simple modelling of the probable impact of changes in the spatial extent of climate suitability to 2050 suggests that both generalist species, with large geographic ranges, and narrow-range endemics may be susceptible to range contractions due to climate change. For example species level information available from Midgley and Thuiller (2010), who modelled climate change response in 20 Karoo Succulent endemic species, showed that most species would experience a range reduction under climate change.

Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa DistrictEndemic species of the Kamiesberg

The Succulent Karoo is one of only two semi-arid biodiversity hotspots in the world, and exhibits by far the highest plant diversity of any arid ecosystem.

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Socio Economic Vulnerability:Socio-economic Vulnerability: The NDM is

large and sparsely populated. This limits the effective delivery of basic services, such as health care. The District is further characterised by a challenging natural environment, and limited economic opportunities for the majority of the population. The local economy is highly dependent on natural resources and based on small stock grazing and a declining mining sector. Given the agricultural basis of the economy, climate change impacts around reduced rainfall and increased temperatures are likely to have a negative impact on productivity and livelihoods, exacerbated by the high levels of poverty and low levels of education.

Institutional Vulnerability:South Africa has strong institutions and powerful

legislation, setting the context for judicious natural resource management nationally. There is high level understanding of South Africa’s socio-economic dependence on a healthy environment as well as commitment to the need to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change on the environment. This has resulted in well-developed biodiversity management plans nationally and in the provinces and some districts, including the Namakwa District. There are, however, many implementation challenges at the local level, exacerbated by extremely limited staff capacity and no funds allocated at the local level for environmental works. Likewise, while climate change and adaptation are on the agenda for many local politicians and officials, there are no official bodies dedicated to adapting to climate change.

Human vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa DistrictThe natural resources of the Namakwa District are essential to the livelihoods of the 126,000

people who live in the 6 local municipalities. Around 50% of the District’s population lives in

rural communities. The impacts of climate change have the potential to impact not only on their

livelihoods and infrastructure, but also on their food and health.

NAMAKWA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION USING INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE

Hazard

Drought

Water Availability

Flood

Soil Erosion

Coastal Storms

Rising sea levels

Rising oceantemperature

Road Infrastructure

Health Services

Poverty

Mine activities

Most Vulnerable

Somewhat Vulnerable

Not vulnerable/Not affected

Vulnerable

Somewhat Vulnerable

Not Vulnerable

Karoo Hoogland Hantam Kamiesberg Nama Khoi Richtersveld Khai-Ma

Local Municipality

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Towards a resilient Namakwa District, PRIMED for an effective response to climate change . (PRIMED = Protect, Recognise, Integrate, Monitor, Establish, and Diversify).

Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing extreme weather conditions in the Namakwa District, with serious and irreversible consequences for local ecosystems and the services they provide. Any disruption of ecological functions and ecosystem services will have severe impacts on the well-being of people, especially in arid rural areas, such as the Namakwa District, where the economy is very dependent on its natural resources.

Adaptation is the only solution to ensure that ecosystems and human communities can maintain their well-being when exposed to the impacts of climate change. To decrease vulnerability in the Namakwa District, the following recommendations should be implemented:

• A strong multi-stakeholder adaptation committee, located in local government, to ensure alignment across sectors and the effective implementation of EbA at scale

• Close collaborations with partners

• Methods to strengthen the capacity of local institutions such as farmers’ unions or commonage committees to implement EbA solutions

Establish:

• Develop alternative sustainable nature based livelihoods as part of a vibrant green economy for the region.

Diversify:

• Natural areas that deliver ecosystem services, contribute to corridors for species movement, and build resilience to climate change

• Ecosystems that sustain important economic activities e.g. tourism or agricultural activities

• High water yield areas, catchments, and river and wetlands networks

• Ground water resources.

Protect:

• Identified EbA priority areas into existing related programmes across all levels of government and across departments, e.g. disaster risk reduction, local economic development

• EbA activities such as restoration to support and contribute to local and national priorities around job creation and economic growth

• Participatory processes into improved land and natural resource management and planning

Integrate:

• That poverty and climate change adaptation must be tackled together

• That adaptation to climate change must be located within the broader developmental context

• That the biodiversity of the region provides the basis for economic growth and development in the NDM

Recognise:

• Climate patterns and weather events locally

• Species response to climate change

• The impact of EbA for reducing vulnerability in populations

Monitor:

PRIMED

Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts

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Ecological Vulnerability

3.85

Socio-economic Vulnerability

3.8

Institutional Vulnerability

3

Overall Vulnerability Index

3.5

Tools and resources References

Vulnerability Assessment Technical ReportA full technical report providing detailed information on the expected impacts of climate change; identifying key ecological, socio-economic, and institutional vulnerabilities in the NDM; highlighting indicators for prioritising and monitoring climate change responses; and recommending a variety of EbA and other actions to build resilience locally, is available for download at www.conservation.org/vulnerabilityAssessment

Ecosystem based Adaptation Priority Areas MapThe EbA priority areas map is a spatial tool prioritising locations in the NDM that are both threatened by the impacts of climate change and are likely to respond well to EbA approaches, in terms of delivering the ecosystems services and functions that will help the District respond effectively to climate change. The darker areas on the map are priority areas and should be tackled first where budgets or capacity are limited, in order to ensure the maximum EbA benefit for the NDM.

Vulnerability IndexThe vulnerability index below provides a general indication of vulnerabilities for the Namakwa District based on selected parameters selected. Each parameter was informed by several indicators, which can be used to inform decision-making, priority-setting, and monitoring of adaptation and EbA actions.The NDM has an overall vulnerability score of 3.5. This translates as medium-high overall vulnerability.

Vulnerability

Amanda Bourne, Dr Camila Donatti, Dr Stephen Holness

& Professor Guy Midgley

September 2012

climate change

for the Namakwa District Municipality Assessment

FULL TECHNICAL REPORT

Overall Climate Change Vulnerability for the Namakwa District Municipality

References and further reading

Department of Social Development. 2009. ‘Possible Effects and Impact of Climate Change on Human Settlements and Population Development in the Northern Cape’. Unpublished Research Report.

Du Plessis, Anton. 2010. Namakwa District Municipality: Disaster Risk Reduction Progress Report. Consultant Report compiled by Watees for Namakwa District Municipality.

Midgley, Guy, Brian van Wilgen, and Brian Mantlana (Eds). 2010. South Africa’s Second National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (draft). Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), Pretoria. Available for download at http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2010/climatechange_snc.pdf

Midgley, G.F, and W. Thuiller. 2007. ‘Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change’ in Journal of Arid Environments:doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020

Northern Cape Provincial Government. 2008. Namakwa District Biodiversity Sector Plan.

For more information on the Namakwa District Vulnerability Assessment Project, please contact:

Amanda BourneClimate Adaptation CoordinatorConservation South Africa – Namakwa Green Economy Demonstrationa.bourne@conservation.org

Conservation South AfricaCentre for Biodiversity Conservation Kirstenbosch National Botanical GardensRhodes DriveNewlands, Cape Town7700www.conservation.org/southafrica

References

Japan Meteorology Agency. RSMC Best Track Data. Updated 21 June 2009. Storm track data from 1952-2008 within 200 km from Verde Island. Japan Meteorology Agency, www. jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/.

NOAA. Sea surface temperature increase (ºC/year) in the Verde Island Passage from 1985-2006. NOAA-Coral Reef Watch, coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite.

For further reading

Carpenter, K.E. and V.G. Springer. 2005. The center of the center of marine shore fish biodiversity: the Philippines Islands. Env. Biol. Fish. 72:467-480.

IUCN. 2008. Status of the World’s Marine Species. International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, www.iucn.org/redlist.

For more information on the Verde Island Passage Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact:

Giuseppe Di Carlo, PhDManager, Marine Climate Change ProgramConservation International - Global Marine Divisiongdicarlo@conservation.org

Rowena Boquiren, PhDSocioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) LeaderConservation International - Philippinesrboquiren@conservation.org

Conservation International2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500Arlington, VA 22202 USAWeb: www.conservation.org

Photo credits©Teri Aquino©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro©Tim Carruthers©Benjamin De Ridder, Marine Photobank©CI/photo by Giuseppe Di Carlo© Google Earth©Keith Ellenbogen

©CI/photo by Michelle Encomienda©CI/photo by Jürgen Freund©Leonard J McKenzie©CI/photo by Miledel C. Quibilan©rembss, Flickr©Badi Samaniego©CI/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn

www.conservation.org/southafrica