Slide 1

Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experience

Kenneth Chomitz, Senior Advisor, IEG kchomitz at worldbank.org ieg.worldbankgroup.org Istanbul, 6 November 2012

Using monitoring and evaluation to accelerate adaptation and development

Outline

In a nutshell: monitoring and evaluation can be a mechanism for accelerating adapation and making it more efficient.

Two kinds of climate risk Two kinds of (desirable) adaptation, with inspirational

examples of monitoring and evaluation Early lessons from national adaptation projects Recommendations for monitoring national progress

towards resilience.

World Bank Group accomplishments against strategic framework goals: highlights

Accomplished: Strong increase in attention to climate in CAS/CPS Upsurge in projects dealing with climate change Significant analytic work

Not accomplished: Initiating screening of projects for climate risks Setting up results framework that is outcome-oriented

Overall: Significant innovation and investment, but: Lack of strategic focus Lost opportunities to learn from projects

Three types of adaptation, with examples

Net benefits later Net costs later

Net benefits now (Adaptation to current climate variability)

Net costs now

Resilient adaption to climate variability: Capacity building Hydromet services

Maladaptation: Unsustainable extraction of groundwater

Anticipatory adaptation: Climate-proofing

long-lived infrastructure

Coastal zone planning

No adaptive benefit: Unsustainable groundwater extraction for uneconomic crops

Adapting to climate variability: examples of things we need to know

Sustainable land management (SLM) Median reported ERRs of 20% info on SLM impacts on water availability and sensitivity of

household income to droughts

Index insurance Apparent success in Mongolia, though sustainability in question Generally low uptake in many pilots, though replication

continues impacts of insurance on welfare; efficacy of selling to

households vs to banks.

Disaster risk reduction Cost-effectiveness and sustainability of soft vs. hard approaches.

Measuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring expenditure on adaptation is fruitless

Nicaragua Atencion a Crisis Program provided small grants to rural households for business investment

Rigorous randomized control trial evaluation Household income increased 8% compared to controls

AND Recipients were completely insulated against drought

shocks while control groups suffered Take-aways:

This doesnt look like a stereotypical adaptation project but it measurably boosted resilience

No meaningful way to allocate expenditure between poverty reduction and adaptation

Real time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnataka watershed) project

M&E costs integrated into project Real-time feedback led to improvements in efficiency

and in targeting benefits to women and landless. Demonstration of 25% income gains, plus environmental

gains, led to scale up and replication of project Bottom line:

Costs are manageable (Bank spends $600m/year on knowledge!)

Techniques are known Benefits are large

Maladaptation: a cautionary tale

Trees in the drylands: sponges or vampires? Afforestation in the Loess Plateau: exotic species reduced

sedimentation, increase carbon storage but depleted groundwater.

Info needs: model and then monitor hydrological and social impacts of land management and forestry interventions

Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank

The need for anticipatory adaptation

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data obtained from the University of Marylands Global Land Cover Facility

TA project in Indian Sundarbans addresses long term spatial development planning

Anticipatory climate adaptation and land use planning: biodiversity

Example: Western Cape Province, South Africa There are few examples of long-term success in shaping

land use patterns M&E needs: track the success of ongoing efforts --such

as India Coastal Zone Mgt, Western Cape, and other projects in influencing land use patterns.

Climate risk management in WBG projects

Currently, screening for climate risk is ad hoc World Bank

FY 11: 23 of 179 projects identify a climate risk; 1 a long-term risk.

Some hydropower projects did climate sensitivity analyses IFC:

has only looked at climate risks within the period of its investment exposure

climate risks not identified in hydropower However, climate risk analysis now enshrined in Performance

Standards; IFC has undertaken insightful analysis of how climate risks affect

private sector

Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank

Climate models: limited applicability to project

Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Divergence of precipitation forecasts for 2030s for 8380 basins

Num

ber o

f bas

ins

(max forecast min forecast)/current mean

Source: Data from Strzpek, McCluskey, Boehlert, Jacobsen and Fant 2011

Recommendation: climate risk management

Develop reference guidelines for incorporating climate risk management into project and program design, appraisal, and implementation. Not meant to be rigidly prescriptive Guidance on when to worry, what tools to use: The challenge is widely shared; Bank Group could

convene scientists, industry experts to formulate approaches

Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank

National-level adaptation projects

Kiribati Colombia Caribbean

Lessons from national-level projects

A focus on current concerns has been more attractive than anticipatory adaptation to long-term transformational threats.

Adaptation issues are deeply interlinked with development issues.

Projects have tended to spread themselves across too many locations and issues, straining limited capacity.

A strong theory of change is needed to guide actions. Planning and execution need to be concurrent and

iterative. Coordination is best vested in a powerful central agency.

Recommendations Track national progress towards resilience

Measures of institutional capacity Agricultural research and extension service performance Hydromet system performance and use

Direct measures of household resilience Sensitivity of household consumption to weather shocks

Biophysical measures of resilience water consumption recurrent flooding Population and infrastructure exposed to storm surges and

floods

Recommendations: more attention to anticipatory adaptaiton

Promote attention to anticipatory adaptation to long-run climate change. Especially for: Urban coastal areas Floodplains Estuaries National biodiversity strategies

Please visit ieg.worldbankgroup.org to read the report. Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!

Image creative commons license K Chomitz

Adapting to Climate Change:Assessing World Bank Group ExperienceOutlineWorld Bank Group accomplishments against strategic framework goals: highlightsThree types of adaptation, with examplesAdapting to climate variability:examples of things we need to knowMeasuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring expenditure on adaptation is fruitlessReal time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnataka watershed) projectMaladaptation: a cautionary taleThe need for anticipatory adaptationAnticipatory climate adaptation and land use planning: biodiversityClimate risk management in WBG projectsClimate models: limited applicability to project Recommendation: climate risk managementNational-level adaptation projectsLessons from national-level projectsRecommendationsTrack national progress towards resilienceRecommendations: more attention to anticipatory adaptaitonPlease visit ieg.worldbankgroup.orgto read the report. Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!