ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

From Plans to Implementation

Overview

■ Thinking of adaptation as risk management■ Changing behaviour for the greater good■ Civil society’s role in implementing adaptation plans

THINKING OF ADAPTATION AS RISK

MANAGEMENT

Adaptation is all about reducing vulnerability■ Risk is simply the probability of loss. ■ Climate risks, like other risks, broadly fall into two categories:

idiosyncratic risks and systemic risks.■ Risks do not always translate into vulnerability; they are two

different but related concepts. ■ Vulnerability depends on exposure to risks, the internal conditions

and risk management policies.

Adaptation is a risk management strategy (Source World Development Report 2014)

Systemic Risks

■ Energy ■ Agriculture■ Sea-level rise

Energy

■ Sri Lanka could face an energy demand-supply gap of about 1.33 TWh by 2050s (that figure is an average of the various predictions) Sri Lanka will lack the energy necessary to power the equivalent of 250,000 homes.

■ Oil imports alone, stood at about $5 billion in 2013, accounting for about 25-50% of imports.

■ The greatest concern is transport, which accounts for about 28% of total energy demand and is almost entirely powered by petroleum.

Sri Lanka spends 3.26% of GDP on energy subsidies – IMF energy survey 2015

Pre-tax subsidies6%

Global warming21%

Local air pollution11%

Accidents47%

Foregone con-sumption tax

revenue13%

Source: IMF Energy Survey 2015

Total post-tax sub-sidies as percent-age of GDP : 3.26%

Pre-tax subsidies, 0.16$ billion

Global warming, 0.55$ billion

Local air pollution, 0.29$ billion

Accidents, 1.21 $ billion

Foregone consump-tion tax revenue,

0.34$ billion

Source: IMF Energy Survey 2015

Total post-tax sub-sidies as US$ bil-

lions: 2.56

Sri Lanka spends US$ 2.56 billion on energy subsidies – IMF energy survey 2015

Questions for adaptation

The richest 20% of households in low and middle income countries use six times more subsidised fuel than the poorest 20%.■ How should we respond to these challenges in a way that reduces

vulnerability? ■ Should we dismantle these subsidies and invest in renewable energy

or should we target these subsidies at poorer households? Or both?■ Should we build a better public transportation system and restrict

private transport or should we help everyone acquire private transport?

CHANGING BEHAVIOUR FOR THE

GREATER GOODThe importance of awareness and willingness

Awareness (Source BEGuide2014)

■ Awareness, or knowledge of the effects one’s behavior has on other people, can have a major impact on one’s decisions.

■ Empirical evidence indicates that people often have little or no knowledge of how their behavior influences other people and society, whether in positive or negative ways.

Willingness (Source BEGuide2014)

■ Willingness, an intention and ability to contribute to societal or organizational goals, is influenced by five main factors: – Social norms – Burdens– Fairness perceptions – Economic costs – Behavioral preferences (risk, time, positive/negative reciprocity,

altruism)

BEA Matrix (Source BEGuide2014)

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CIVIL SOCIETY’S ROLE IN IMPLEMENTING

ADAPTATION PLANSUsing the Joint Principles for Adaptation

Civil society needs to lead the way in adaptation

■ Civil society’s strength is in its ability to bring different stakeholders to ensure inclusive, transparent and responsive climate change policies.

■ Accordingly, civil society will play two important roles: – An advisor– A respondent

The role of the Joint Principles for Adaptation

■ Broadly, the JPAs establish guidelines for inclusive and consultation when drafting the NAP (JPAs 1 and 4), accountability (JPAs 2 and 3), flexibility (JPAs 6 and 7) and consideration to vulnerable groups (JPA 5).

JPA principles1. The planning process is participatory and inclusive2. Public funds for adaptation is utilised efficiently and managed transparently and

with integrity3. All government sectors and levels of administration have defined responsibilities

and appropriate resources to fulfil them. 4. Local adaptation plans developed through community-based approaches are a

core element5. The resilience of women and men who are most vulnerable to climate change is

built.6. There is a balance between the investment in physical infrastructure and the

building of skills and capacities. 7. Plans respond to evidence of the current and future impacts of climate change.

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