Adapting to climate change

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Adapting to climate change. Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010. Drivers of emerging infectious diseases. Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens. Rank*Driver. 1Changes in land use or agricultural practices. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Adapting to climate changeJonathan Suk30 June 2010Add new slides with CTRL-M.Helpful hints:1. Write "Total outpatient antibiotic use in Europe", not "Total Outpatient Antibiotic Use in Europe".2a. Write "Member States", not "MS", i.e. avoid avoidable abbreviations.2b. Write "and", not "&".2c. Write "three", not "3".3. Write: "HIV infections", not "HIV INFECTIONS".4. No pink, purple, and red, especially not in headlines.5. Use soft returns (CTRL-RETURN) instead of hard returns (RETURN) whenever possible.6. Don't centre text! All text should be aligned left.7. Don't enlarge pictures beyond their actual size/resolution.8. Don't use italics, except for e.g. 'Clostridium difficile'.9. Crop pictures.10. Make sure you understand how bulleted lists work.

Source: Woolhouse, M.E.J. & Gowtage-Sequeria, S. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005, Vol. 11(12): 1842-1847.Rank*Driver1Changes in land use or agricultural practices2Changes in human demographics and society3Poor population health, e.g. HIV, malnutrition4Hospitals and medial procedures5Pathogen evolution, e.g. antimicrobial drug resistance, increased virulence6Contamination of food sources or water supplies7International travel8Failure of public health programmes9International trade10Climate change* Ranked by the number of pathogen species associated with them (most to least).Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogensDrivers of emerging infectious diseasesFood- and water-borne pathogens with known climate linksDiseaseClimate linkageBotulismFood-borne. Temperature link, risk if poorly stored; high temperatures affect risk in fishCampylobacteriosisLinked to heavy rainCholeraLinked to heavy rainCryptosporidiosisLinked to heavy rainGiardiasisLinked to heavy rainVTEC Linked to heavy rainHepatitis ALinked to heavy rainListeriosisSmall risk if inadequate cold storage.SalmonellosisFood: temperature linkage. Water: linked to heavy rainShigellosisLinked to heavy rainTyphoid / paratyphoid feverLinked to heavy rainYersiniosisFood: temperature linkage. Water: heavy rain.3Vector-borne diseases/pathogens that may be linked to climate change in EuropeTick-borneMosquito-borneOther insect-borneRodent-borneLyme diseaseChikungunyaLeishmaniasisHanta virusesTick-borne encephalitisDengue*Chandipura virusHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS)Human erlichiosisMalaria*Sicilian virusNefropathia epidemicaCrimean-congo hemorrhagic disease*West Nile virusTularaemiaTularaemiaYellow fever*Toscana virusPlague*Sindbis virusPhlebotomus fever (Naples virus)Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virusTahnya virusCowpox virusLassa fever*4*Disease not currently prevalent in continental EU regionCurrent distribution of Aedes albopictus in the EU

Source: Schaffner, F. Development of Aedes albopictus risk maps. TigerMaps project. ECDC, Stockholm 2008. (Forthcoming.)56Potential establishment under climatechange scenarios

7Climate change at ECDCVulnerability and risk assessmentsInternational workshop on Environmental Change and Infectious Disease International workshop on Linking Environmental and Epidemiologic Data Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases in the EU (V-borne)Impact of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB) diseases in Europe Risk maps for Aedes albopictusRisk maps for dengue fever and aedes aegypti

Adaptation strategiesChikungunya communication toolkitAdaptation and vulnerability toolkit

ResponseECDC/WHO risk assessment of chikungunya in northern Italy

1. Vector Surveillance: VBORNETObjectives

To establish a network of expertise in entomology across the EU

To obtain data on vectors of primary concern to health in the EU (mosquitos, ticks)

To promote EU-wide harmonization of standards and methods for vector surveillance

82. Environmental monitoring 9timeHealth outcomesEnvironmental consequences Climate changeCO2CO2CO2Socio-economic impacts(homelessness, refugees)Indirect exposures(vector-borne diseases, other infectious diseases)SurveillanceDirect exposures(heat stroke, drowning)

3. Adaptation handbookBackgroundClimate change as a threat multiplier addressing climate-sensitive diseases should also benefit public health today

Objectives

To assist EU Member States to conduct national and regional vulnerability assessments as concerns climate change and communicable diseases

To develop comprehensive advice for ECDC and EU Member States on how to implement regionally targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate against future communicable disease transmission due to climate change.

10Pragmatic approachIdentify baseline description (epidemiologic, socio-economic, current disease burden), and note it is changing alongside climateIdentify climate-sensitive diseases most relevant for a given region, and then weighing options for actionIdentify climatic drivers (rainfall, drought, temperature) most relevant to these diseasesDevelop adaptation strategies with future projections in mind, and engage other sectors where possibleStrategy needs to be evidence-based, but does not necessarily need to involve sophisticated modelling

11Assessment Process12Aim, demarcationQuality controlOrganisational structure:Working group, reference group, etc

Base-line descriptionClimate, diseases, vulnerability factorsAssessment:Vulnerability and impactsBase-line descriptionAdaptation measuresAssessment:Adaptive strategies and measures

Follow-up/ monitoring: Impacts and measuresPolicy decisionIterative processIdentifying priorities for actionHighMediumLowHighMediumLowWeighted significance of climate change on the transmission of a specific infectious disease in an area High

Medium

Low

Probability of an outbreak/strength of climate change-disease relationshipSeverity of consequence for society risk groupThank you.Jonathan.Suk@ecdc.europa.eu14

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