adapting to climate change

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Adapting to climate change Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010

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Adapting to climate change. Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010. Drivers of emerging infectious diseases. Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens. Rank*Driver. 1Changes in land use or agricultural practices. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Adapting to climate change

Adapting to climate change

Jonathan Suk30 June 2010

Page 2: Adapting to climate change

Source: Woolhouse, M.E.J. & Gowtage-Sequeria, S. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005, Vol. 11(12): 1842-1847.

Rank* Driver1 Changes in land use or agricultural practices2 Changes in human demographics and society3 Poor population health, e.g. HIV, malnutrition4 Hospitals and medial procedures5 Pathogen evolution, e.g. antimicrobial drug resistance,

increased virulence6 Contamination of food sources or water supplies7 International travel8 Failure of public health programmes9 International trade10 Climate change* Ranked by the number of pathogen species associated with them (most to least).

Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens

Drivers of emerging infectious diseases

Page 3: Adapting to climate change

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Food- and water-borne pathogens with known climate linksDisease Climate linkageBotulism Food-borne. Temperature link, risk if poorly

stored; high temperatures affect risk in fishCampylobacteriosis Linked to heavy rainCholera Linked to heavy rainCryptosporidiosis Linked to heavy rainGiardiasis Linked to heavy rainVTEC Linked to heavy rainHepatitis A Linked to heavy rainListeriosis Small risk if inadequate cold storage.Salmonellosis Food: temperature linkage. Water: linked to

heavy rainShigellosis Linked to heavy rainTyphoid / paratyphoid fever

Linked to heavy rain

Yersiniosis Food: temperature linkage. Water: heavy rain.

Page 4: Adapting to climate change

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Vector-borne diseases/pathogens that may be linked to climate change in EuropeTick-borne Mosquito-

borneOther insect-borne

Rodent-borne

Lyme disease Chikungunya Leishmaniasis Hanta virusesTick-borne encephalitis

Dengue* Chandipura virus Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS)

Human erlichiosis Malaria* Sicilian virus Nefropathia epidemica

Crimean-congo hemorrhagic disease*

West Nile virus Tularaemia Tularaemia

Yellow fever* Toscana virus Plague*Sindbis virus Phlebotomus fever

(Naples virus)Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus

Tahnya virus Cowpox virusLassa fever*

*Disease not currently prevalent in continental EU region

Page 5: Adapting to climate change

Current distribution of Aedes albopictus in the EU

Source: Schaffner, F. Development of Aedes albopictus risk maps. TigerMaps project. ECDC, Stockholm 2008. (Forthcoming.)

Page 6: Adapting to climate change

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Potential establishment under climatechange scenarios

Page 7: Adapting to climate change

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Climate change at ECDC

Vulnerability and risk assessments• International workshop on Environmental Change and Infectious

Disease • International workshop on Linking Environmental and

Epidemiologic Data • Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases in the EU (V-borne)• Impact of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB)

diseases in Europe • Risk maps for Aedes albopictus• Risk maps for dengue fever and aedes aegypti

Adaptation strategies• Chikungunya communication toolkit• Adaptation and vulnerability toolkitResponse• ECDC/WHO risk assessment of

chikungunya in northern Italy

Page 8: Adapting to climate change

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1. Vector Surveillance: VBORNET

Objectives To establish a network of expertise in entomology

across the EU To obtain data on vectors of primary concern to

health in the EU (mosquitos, ticks)

To promote EU-wide harmonization of standards and methods for vector surveillance

Page 9: Adapting to climate change

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2. Environmental monitoring

time

Health outcome

sEnvironmental consequences

Climate change

CO2

CO2 CO2

Socio-economic impacts(homelessness,

refugees…)

Indirect exposures

(vector-borne diseases, other infectious

diseases)

Surveillance

Direct exposures

(heat stroke, drowning…)

Page 10: Adapting to climate change

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3. Adaptation handbook

Background Climate change as a threat multiplier – addressing climate-

sensitive diseases should also benefit public health today

Objectives

To assist EU Member States to conduct national and regional vulnerability assessments as concerns climate change and communicable diseases

To develop comprehensive advice for ECDC and EU Member States on how to implement regionally targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate against future communicable disease transmission due to climate change.

Page 11: Adapting to climate change

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Pragmatic approach

Identify baseline description (epidemiologic, socio-economic, current disease burden), and note it is changing alongside climate

Identify climate-sensitive diseases most relevant for a given region, and then weighing options for action

Identify climatic drivers (rainfall, drought, temperature) most relevant to these diseases

Develop adaptation strategies with future projections in mind, and engage other sectors where possible

Strategy needs to be evidence-based, but does not necessarily need to involve sophisticated modelling

Page 12: Adapting to climate change

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Assessment Process

Aim, demarcation

Qua

lity c

ontro

l

Organisational structure:Working group, reference group, etc

Base-line descriptionClimate, diseases, vulnerability factors

Assessment:Vulnerability and impacts

Base-line descriptionAdaptation measures

Assessment:Adaptive strategies and measures

Follow-up/ monitoring: Impacts and measuresPo

licy

decis

ion

Itera

tive

proc

ess

Page 13: Adapting to climate change

Identifying priorities for action

High

Medium

Low

HighMedium

Low

Weighted significance of climate change on the transmission of a specific infectious disease in an area

High

Medium

Low

Probability of an outbreak/strengt

h of climate change-disease

relationship

Severity of consequence for society risk group

Page 14: Adapting to climate change

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Thank [email protected]