Adapting to a Changing Adapting to a Changing Climate:Climate:

A Watershed PerspectiveA Watershed Perspective

Climate Change ForumClimate Change Forum

April 15, 2013April 15, 2013

Paul LehmanPaul Lehman

Mississippi Valley Mississippi Valley ConservationConservation

AdaptationAdaptation

The science is clear. It shows us that climate The science is clear. It shows us that climate change is an issue of today – not one of tomorrowchange is an issue of today – not one of tomorrow

Climate change is an economic issue, a social issue, Climate change is an economic issue, a social issue, and an environmental issueand an environmental issue

We reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address We reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address global causes, we adapt to address local global causes, we adapt to address local consequencesconsequences

Adaptation involves all levels of government, Adaptation involves all levels of government, business, industry, community groups and business, industry, community groups and individualsindividuals

Local leadership and action is criticalLocal leadership and action is critical

City of Peterborough – July 2004

Fall River at Outlet of Sharbot Lake– August 2012

Mississippi River Water Management StructuresMississippi River Water Management Structures

MVC - Climate Change Adaptation Work

Water Resources, Fish and Fisheries: Sensitivities, Water Resources, Fish and Fisheries: Sensitivities, Impacts and Adaptation to a Changing Climate - Impacts and Adaptation to a Changing Climate - 20072007 Collaborative study with Queen’s UniversityCollaborative study with Queen’s University

Weathering the Change Public Information Workshops - Weathering the Change Public Information Workshops - 20072007

Climate Change Effects On Reservoir Operation Climate Change Effects On Reservoir Operation Policies In The Mississippi Valley Watershed - 2011Policies In The Mississippi Valley Watershed - 2011 Partnership through Guelph UniversityPartnership through Guelph University

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Preliminary analysis, problem Preliminary analysis, problem definition/scopingdefinition/scoping

Quantify projected changes in Quantify projected changes in precipitation and temperatureprecipitation and temperature

Model hydrologic responseModel hydrologic response Assess reservoir performance and capacity Assess reservoir performance and capacity

for satisfying constraints and objectivesfor satisfying constraints and objectives Assess secondary impacts (fisheries/water

quality)

Water Resource Impact Water Resource Impact AssessmentAssessment

A2 emissions scenario – CGCM II climate A2 emissions scenario – CGCM II climate model downscaled to Mississippi R. model downscaled to Mississippi R. watershedwatershed temperaturetemperature precipitationprecipitation

Four periods modeledFour periods modeled Base period 1974 – 2002Base period 1974 – 2002 Future periods (2010 – 2039, 2040 – Future periods (2010 – 2039, 2040 –

2069, 2070 – 2099)2069, 2070 – 2099)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Current 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

Wa

ter B

ud

ge

t (m

m)

Climate Period

Mean Annual Water BudgetMississippi River Watershed

Precipitation Runoff Evapotranspiration

Minimum Streamflow objective

Mean Annual Flow Comparison

Implications

Highly variable flows over fall/winter

Potential risks:– achieving summer

recreation targets– water supply

targets– shoreline damage– unsafe ice

conditions

Existing

Stream flow

Reservoir target

Stream flow

Reservoir target

Building Local Adaptation Capacity

Climate Change Information WorkshopsClimate Change Information Workshops

Three meetings held in 2012Three meetings held in 2012

Local municipalities and agencies Local municipalities and agencies

2012 Drought Workshop – 20132012 Drought Workshop – 2013

Multiple speaking engagementsMultiple speaking engagements

Engage local municipalities and agencies in collaborating on Engage local municipalities and agencies in collaborating on vulnerability assessment and adaptation planningvulnerability assessment and adaptation planning

Uncertainty on how to proceedUncertainty on how to proceed

Lack of political directionLack of political direction

Tie-in with municipal prioritiesTie-in with municipal priorities

Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment Discussions between MNR, MVC and RVCA to consider a pilot

application of the “Practitioner’s Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Ontario’s Ecosystems to Mississippi-Rideau area

Access to a suite of related information, research reports

Case history experience from the Lake Simcoe and Clay Belt exercises

Assistance in designing a strategy process tailored to Mississippi-Rideau with improvements based on lessoned learned

A provincial and national network of experts, researchers, climate scientists

Potential funding (unconfirmed)

Mississippi – Rideau Mississippi – Rideau WatershedsWatersheds

Potential Vulnerability Themes for Potential Vulnerability Themes for Mississippi – Rideau Watershed AreaMississippi – Rideau Watershed Area

Emergency Preparedness

Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

Hydrology/Water levels

Organizational Capacity

Wildlife

Forest Cover and Terrestrial Habitat

Water Power

Invasive Species

Species at Risk

Fisheries

Aquatic Habitat

Forest Fire/disturbance

Human Health

Others?

Thank youThank you

Mississippi Valley ConservationMississippi Valley Conservation http://www.mvc.on.ca/http://www.mvc.on.ca/ plehman@mvc.on.caplehman@mvc.on.ca