FULL-LENGTH RESEARCH ARTICLE

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change and Variabilityin Chitwan: Long-Term Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions

Bibek Paudel • Bharat Sharma Acharya •

Rajan Ghimire • Khem Raj Dahal •

Prakriti Bista

Received: 20 August 2013 / Accepted: 31 March 2014 / Published online: 16 May 2014

� NAAS (National Academy of Agricultural Sciences) 2014

Abstract A study was conducted to detect climate change and variability using climate records and farmers’ perceptions

in Chitwan, Nepal, and to evaluate climatic impacts on small-holder agriculture. Forty years of climatic data (1968–2007)

from a weather station at the National Maize Research Program, Rampur, and 15 years of rice, maize, and wheat

productivity data (1992–2008) from the District Agriculture Development Office, Chitwan were collected and analyzed

using non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and regression analysis. Questionnaire survey was conducted on sixty randomly

selected households of Chitwan to understand farmers’ perceptions and adaptations in response to changing climate and

variability. Occurrence of extreme events and disasters was cross-validated with DesInventer, a disaster database available

for Nepal for 1971–2007. There has been no clear trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall of Chitwan during 1970–2007.

However, variation in temperature and a significant upward trend for both minimum (p = 0.014) and maximum tem-

perature (p = 0.018) was observed. The occurrence of extreme events and increased variability in temperature has

increased the vulnerability of crops to biotic and abiotic stresses and altered the timing of agricultural operations; thereby

affecting crop production. Despite growing attempts of local communities to adapt to changing climate and variability,

further planned adaptation aimed at a larger scale and longer duration is necessary to sustain the livelihood security of

small-holder farmers.

Keywords Climate change � Climate variability �Adaptation � Small-holder agriculture � Farmers’ perception

Introduction

Climate change and climatic variability present an

increasing challenge for developing countries such as

Nepal. Over the last century, the earth’s surface tempera-

ture has increased by about 0.74 �C on a global average.

The mean global temperature is projected to increase by

1.8–4 �C by the end of this century, depending upon the

scenario of greenhouse gas emissions [16].

According to IPCC [16], climate change is an

unequivocal phenomenon and refers to ‘‘any change in

climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as

a result of human activity,’’ whereas climatic variability

refers to ‘‘variations in the mean state and other statistics

(such as standard deviations, statistics of extremes, etc.) of

the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that

individual weather events’’. Climate change and climate

B. Paudel � B. S. Acharya � R. Ghimire � K. R. Dahal � P. Bista

Institute of Agriculture and Animal Sciences,

Tribhuvan University, Rampur, Nepal

B. Paudel

Department of Applied Economics, Utah State University,

Logan, UT, USA

B. S. Acharya (&)

Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management,

Oklahoma State University, 008C Agricultural Hall,

Stillwater, OK 74078, USA

e-mail: bharat.sharma_acharya@okstate.edu;

bikatiaas@gmail.com

R. Ghimire

Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Center,

Oregon State University, Pendleton, OR, USA

P. Bista

Department of Plant Sciences, University of Wyoming,

Laramie, WY, USA

123

Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174

DOI 10.1007/s40003-014-0103-0

variability affect agriculture and the livelihood of farming

communities [16, 30, 32]. Direct effects of climate change

in agriculture result from an increase in ambient CO2

concentration and concomitant rise in temperature. In

addition, it affects crop and livestock production through

changes in insect-pests and disease incidence, soil meta-

bolic process, and soil water content [21, 35]. Rise in mean

annual temperature and increase in extreme weather events

affect the growing seasons of major crops, impose biotic,

and abiotic stresses on the crops, and alter soil nutrient

cycling [3, 7, 14, 31]. In addition, climate change and

variability affect income distribution and ultimately the

livelihood security of farming communities [20].

Climate change has been shown to drive positive effects

in some ecosystems [19, 22, 28]. Polley [28] reported that

increased CO2 levels can improve water-use efficiency of

crops by reducing evapotranspiration. Rise in temperature

favors crop production at higher altitudes allowing faster

cycling of soil organic matter (SOM) and nutrients, and

better development of roots. Similarly, Khanal [19] pointed

out the possibility of expanding and diversifying agricul-

ture with increasing temperature at higher altitudes. How-

ever, there are considerable uncertainties regarding

physiological responses of crops to an altered climate [30].

Nepal is a landlocked country surrounded by India on

the east, west, and south, and the Tibetan region of China

to the North. It encompasses a total area of 1, 47,181 km2

with an approximate population of 23.4 million. The

country is ecologically divided into three regions: Terai

(lowland), hills (mid hill), and mountains (upland). The

physiographic characteristics of different regions are pre-

sented in Table 1. Agriculture is the mainstay of the

Nepalese economy and accounts for 32 % of gross

domestic product [39]. Although eighty percent of the total

population depends on agriculture, the subsistence and

traditional farming makes the agricultural sector highly

vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability.

In Nepal, rise in temperature by 1.8 �C was recorded

during 1975–2006 [22]. The average temperature is pro-

jected to increase by 5 �C over the next century if the

temperature continues to rise at the same rate. This would

have cascading impacts on small-holder agriculture and

natural resources [26]. Significant effects of climate change

have already been experienced by local communities [22,

27] where farmers are struggling to cope with increasing

adversities associated with the changes [15]. A large body

of literature points out the impacts of climate change in

different parts of Nepal (Table 2). Owing to limited alter-

natives for livelihood security, impacts are more pro-

nounced in small-holder agriculture where subsistence

farming provides the principal source of income. In the

absence of a national inventory for climate and food pro-

duction systems, alongside a strong research base on the

impacts of climate change on agriculture, most of the

published and unpublished information from Nepal to date

are primarily based on farmers’ observations and assess-

ments, or extrapolation from experiences of communities

from similar ecological regions [10, 11, 23, 29]. The goal

of this study was to detect climate change and variability in

Chitwan using climate records and farmers’ perceptions,

evaluate change in crop production and farming practices

in two locations of Chitwan, and study the relationship

between climate change and variability and crop produc-

tion in small-holder agriculture.

Table 1 Physiographic characteristics of different regions in Nepal (Adapted and modified from [1, 23] )

Region Altitude (meter

above sea level)

Percent of total

land area

Geology and soil Climate Temperature

(oC)

Terai 70 to 610 23 Gentle slope and recently deposited alluvium, fine

textured soils, highly fertile land

Humid tropical [ 25

Hills 610 to 4877 42 Sandstone, siltstone, steep slopes, course textured

soils, Quartzite in coniferous forest

Subtropical to subalpine 10 to 25

Mountains 4877 to 8848 35 Limestone and shale, stony soils Alpine to arctic \ 0 to 5

Table 2 Evidence of impacts of climate change and variability on livelihoods of local communities in Chitwan, Nepal

S. no. Study method Evidence of climate

change and variability

Period

(years)

Observed response and adaptation References

1 Field survey and results

from project reports

Flood, landslides and

crop failure

1966 - 2006 Transition from irrigated to dryland crops [11]

2 Review Soaring temperature,

flood and crop failure

– Crop production, crop rotations, and

varietal adjustments

[22]

3 Field survey and observations Flood and loss of crops 2007–2008 Change in cropping system, adoption of

Sloping Agriculture Land Technology

in the affected area

[10]

166 Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174

123

Materials and Methods

Study Sites

The study was conducted in Chitwan district, Nepal during

December 2007 to September 2008. The district is spread

across an area of 223,839 ha, and is inhabited by 472,048

people (male 50 % and female 50 %). Total number of

households for the district is 92,863 with an average

household size in the district being five persons per family

[5]. The study area was selected owing to the availability of

long-term ([15 years) climate and crop productivity data.

The Fulbari area of Fulbari village development com-

mittee (VDC) and the Bharlang, Khahare, and Kusumtar

areas of Kabilash VDC were purposively selected for this

study to represent small-holder agriculture in Chitwan

(Fig. 1). Surrounded by four VDCs (Mangalpur, Shara-

danagar, Shivanagar, and Gitanagar) and Bharatpur

Municipality, Fulbari is the smallest VDC in the Chitwan

district. It is located 9 km west of the district headquarter

and occupies 14 % of the district area. Similarly, Kabilash

VDC is surrounded by 2 VDCs of the Chitwan district

(Dahakhani and Jutpani), 2 VDCs of the Tanahu district

(Devghat and Chhimkeshwori), and Bharatput Municipal-

ity. It is located 13 km east of the district headquarter and

primarily consists of sloping lands (lower Mahabharat

Mountains). Further information concerning the demo-

graphic and agroclimatic characteristics of the study areas

is available from earlier studies [10, 11].

Data Collection

Sequential steps of research, mainly collection of primary

and secondary data, have been depicted in Fig. 2. Primary

information indicates the information obtained from

questionnaire surveys, whereas secondary information

refers to the data obtained from DADO, Chitwan and

NMRP, Rampur.

Primary data were collected from the Fulbari and Ka-

bilash areas of Chitwan. A total of 121 and 90-households

inhabited the Kabilash and Fulbari areas, respectively.

Respondent households were selected using a random

sampling method. Key informants’ surveys were used for a

sampling frame, and survey respondents were selected after

a pre-field visit. Altogether, sixty households were sur-

veyed from two study locations. Thus, sample size was

approximately 30 % of the total population, a sampling

criterion used in most social surveys (e.g., [24]).

Respondents had long-standing experience of local agri-

culture and climate. More than 90 % of the respondents

(n = 60) had experiences on local climate and agricultural

practices. Farmers in Chitwan in general have both khet land

which receives irrigation water during June–October, and

bari land which does not receives irrigation water throughout

the year. Of the total land area owned by the respondents,

58 % of the area in Kabilash was khet land and 42 % of the

area was pakho/bari land, whereas 51 % of the area in Ful-

bari was khet and 49 % of the area was bari land.

Weather data were collected from the weather station at

National Maize Resarch Program (NMRP), Rampur, and

data were analyzed to see long-term trends and/or vari-

ability in mean annual maximum and minimum tempera-

ture, and monthly and annual total precipitation during

1968-2007. Farmers’ perceptions on the occurrence of

extreme events and disasters in the study area were deter-

mined and cross-validated with disaster records from De-

sInventer, a disaster database available for Nepal [8]. Only

reports from Kabilash were available in the database. To

complement the weather data, data on average productivity

of rice (Oryza sativa L.), maize (Zea mays), and wheat

(Triticum aestivum) were collected from District Agricul-

ture Development Office (DADO), Bharatpur, Chitwan.

Trends in average productivity of these crops (1992–2008)

were then analyzed. Crop productivity data prior to 1992

was unavailable for our analysis.

Fig. 1 Map of the study area in Nepal

Literature survey

Primary data collection Collection of secondary information

Questionnaire survey

Preparation of sampling frame and pre field visit of the study sites

Checklist survey and key informants’ interview

Focus group discussion

Data compiling, analysis, interpretation, and sharing of research outputs

Fig. 2 Flow chart for sequential steps of the research

Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174 167

123

Data Analysis

Evaluation of primary and secondary information com-

prised an appraisal of impacts of climate change on agri-

culture and livelihood of farmers, and their strategies to

adapt climate change. Descriptive statistical tools such as

sum, average, etc. were used to analyze and describe

farmers’ response to the impacts of climate change, and

adaptation strategies implemented by local communities.

Analysis was carried out using Statistical Package for

Social Science (SPSS Inc., version 14).

For the overarching aim of detecting and evaluating

rainfall trends with approximately 40 years of data, a non-

parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test in R 2.15.1 [18, 25]

was used. Different packages like ‘‘Kendall’’ and ‘‘TTR’’

were used from R Library (http://www.r-project.org/) for

Mann–Kendall test and technical analysis functions,

respectively. Non-parametric tests are rather simple, robust,

and suitable for non-normally distributed data [20]. Auto-

correlation was examined using ‘‘acf’’ function, and corre-

logram was plotted as sample auto-correlations (acf/auto-

correlation function) vs. time lags with 95 % confidence

interval for the time series of rainfall, 1968-2007. Smoothing

was done to smooth data and to differentiate underlying

patterns in rainfall from randomness using ‘‘SMA’’ function,

and the pattern was later decomposed into different additive

components including season, trend, and random compo-

nents using ‘‘decompose’’ function. The additive decompo-

sition model is given by

Yt ¼ Tt þ St þ Et;

where, Yt is the observed series, Tt is the trend, St is the

seasonal variation, and Et is the random/remainder/irre-

gular component. The 2-sided p value with a significance

level of 5 % was used to detect trend in the time series [33,

40]. In addition, regression analysis was utilized to analyze

data on crop productivity.

Results

Changes in Temperature and Rainfall

Chitwan has a subtropical climate, i.e., cool dry winter and

a hot humid summer with annual mean minimum and

maximum temperature 16.7 and 30.8 �C, respectively, and

an average annual rainfall 2,666 mm. However, in recent

years, Chitwan has experienced increasing extreme events

and variability in temperature.

Analysis of rainfall data from NMRP weather station did

not reveal a clear trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall

of Chitwan (p value = 0.58). However, variation in mean

annual temperature and significant positive trend for both

minimum (p value = 0.014) and maximum temperature

(p value = 0.018) was observed (Fig. 3). The upward trend

in minimum temperature after 1985 was unambiguous. The

highest maximum temperature (39.1 �C) was recorded in

May, 1995 and the lowest minimum temperature (5.3 �C)

was recorded in December, 1974. Thus, there were extreme

years (i.e., years with very high or low temperature indi-

cating climate variability) where the farming community

experienced changes in the local climate. More than 82 %

of household survey respondents reported increased tem-

perature and warmer summers in last 15 years.

Rain water is the main source of irrigation in Chitwan.

Despite no clear trend in rainfall data (Figs. 4, 5), the

timing and pattern of rainfall have changed over the last

40 years as experienced by farmers. The maximum rainfall

(1,047 mm) was recorded in August, 1998. However,

change in intensity of rainfall, shift of monsoon, and

occurrence of extreme events were experienced by farmers

in last 15 years. Rainfall at a place was perceived to differ

from neighboring areas in frequency and intensity which

may indicate micro-climatic variability. Decreased winter

rain was reported by 67 % of the survey farmers, whereas

there was an increase in the number of thunderstorms and

summer rainfall as reported by more than 93 % respon-

dents. However, we observed no significant change in a

long-term seasonal trend of rainfall (Fig. 5). These events

resulted in the damage of crops, loss of properties, and

increased vulnerability of local communities to climate

change. Higher frequency of high intensity rainfall and

thunderstorms in summer were experienced by farmers in

the last 10 years. In addition, Chitwan received greater

number of high intensity rainfalls (e.g., [600 mm) during

1997–2007 than earlier years (Fig. 5), and more hazards

associated with high intensity rainfall (Table 3). Climatic

hazard records for Nepal obtained from DesInventar during

1971–2007 are presented in Table 3. Major hazards in

Chitwan included floods, hail-storms, thunderstorms,

landslides, and drought.

Change in Crops, Cropping Season, and Crop Varieties

Rice, maize, and wheat are the three major grain crops in

Nepal. The survey revealed that these crops were the top

priority crops both in terms of area and production in the

study area. In addition, respondents were found to grow

millet (Eleusine coracana) and buckwheat (Fagopyrum

esculentum) as staple crops; lentil (Lens esculentum), lin-

seed (Linum usitatissimum), black gram (Vigna mungo),

and soybean (Glycine max) in Kabilash; and pea (Pisum

sativum), lentil (Lens esculentum) and French bean

(Phaseolus vulgaris) in Fulbari as pulses. Similarly, com-

monly grown vegetables in the study areas include cauli-

flower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis), tomato

168 Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174

123

(Lycopersicon esculentum), potato (Solanum tuberosum),

okra (Abelmoschus esculentus), cabbage (Brassica olera-

cea var. capitata), sponge gourd (Luffa cylindrica), carrot

(Daucus carota), and broccoli (Brassica oleracea var.

Italica).

Over the past few decades, changes in cropping systems

have been increasingly experienced in Chitwan. Under

increasing climate variability including temperature and

rainfall patterns, previously grown crops and crop varieties,

mainly the local varieties and landraces, have lost farmers’

preference. To adapt to changing climate and variability,

more than 65 % of the survey farmers reported to have

changed their cropping system from rice–wheat–maize to

rice–vegetable–maize and maize–millet systems. In addi-

tion, many crops and varieties of the cereals, vegetables,

and legumes were newly introduced into the study area

(Table 4). Irrespective of location, vegetables like tomato,

cauliflower, potato, cabbage, onion, and other cucurbita-

ceous crops have been included in the rotation. Farmers

have also started organic and integrated farming practices,

agro-biodiversity conservation, conservation of locally

available seeds in the community, and diversification in

cropping practices to adjust their crop production under

altered settings.

In recent years, farmers have observed increased vul-

nerability of crops to insect-pests and diseases. For exam-

ple, Guava wilt caused by Myxosporium psidii is becoming

a major threat to the growers [34]. Similarly, farmers have

reported increasing problem of stem borers and cabbage

butterflies (Pieris rapae). Increasing problems of storage

grain pests, especially the angoumois grain moth (Sitotroga

cerealella) in rice storage was also a strong concern among

farmers. Invasions of some notorious plants like Eupato-

rium odoratum and Lantana cameras were found to

become a major problem in some private, communal, and

common property lands in Chitwan.

Change in timing and pattern of rainfall has forced

farmers to shift the planting time of major crops. As

recently as two decades ago, rice was planted in the second

half of June to the first quarter of July. But the planting

time of rice in recent years is delayed by several weeks,

and farmers are forced to wait for monsoon to obtain

adequate water for puddling operations. Similarly, with the

shift in rainfall pattern, normal time for planting of

Year

Mea

n A

nnua

l Max

imum

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

2025

3035

(a)

(b)

Year

Mea

n A

nnua

l Min

imum

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

1970 1980 1990 2000

1970 1980 1990 2000

510

1520

25

Fig. 3 Mean annual maximum (a) and minimum temperature (b) of

Chitwan, recorded at NMRP, Rampur (1968–2008). The line running

in between the plot represents a non-parametric approach of smooth

curve

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Lag

AC

F

Fig. 4 Analysis of Autocorrelations for time series of rainfall

(1968–2007). Autocorrelations at different time lags were used to

detect randomness in data. At any time lag, values of autocorrelations

near zero indicate randomness in rainfall time series and near non-

zero indicate non-randomness. The horizontal dotted lines indicate

95 % confidence interval

Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174 169

123

summer, winter, and spring maize has been delayed by at

least 2–3 weeks as experienced by 75 % of the respon-

dents. Similarly, farmers have reported changes in the

flowering time of fruit trees; especially the flowering time

of peach and pear trees has shifted from the spring to the

winter season.

Effects on Crop Productivity

Evaluation of average productivity trends of rice, wheat,

and maize in the last 15 years (district-wide average)

indicated that production of these crops has not increased

significantly for last several years (Fig. 6), although

farmers have changed varieties or adjusted their cropping

calendar. Average productivity of rice was relatively higher

in 1998–2000, but it started declining after 2000. Maize

productivity increased slightly after 1997/1998 but not

significantly. Relatively higher rate of the increase in maize

productivity compared to the increase in rice productivity

was observed, which might be explained by higher resis-

tance inherent in maize to water stress. There was an

increasing trend in wheat productivity until 1997/1998, but

the productivity decreased considerably in later years.

Discussion

Information on long-term climatic trends and farmers’

perceptions of climate change and variability serves as an

important tool to initiate and promote public policies and

040

080

0

ob

serv

ed

120

160

200

240

tre

nd

-100

100

300

sea

son

al

-200

020

0

1970 1980 1990 2000

ran

do

m

Time

Fig. 5 Decomposition of

additive time series data of

rainfall (1968–2007) into trend,

seasonal, and random

components. The sum of the

trend, seasonal, and random

components is equal to the

observed series. Observed

rainfall values during

1968–2007 ranged from 0 to

1,047 mm

Table 3 Important climatic

hazards in Nepal: total number

of events, deaths, and affected

population during 1971–2007

(Source: [8])

Hazards in Nepal Number of events Deaths Affected population

Cold wave 192 298 1,453

Drought 152 0 1,512

Flood 2,720 2,936 3,367,974

Hail-storm 597 57 197,843

Heat wave 31 25 261

Rains 187 82 62,431

Snow-storm 174 69 7,600

Landslides in Kabilash in 2003 – 11 5,702

170 Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174

123

ameliorative actions for adaption strategies in agriculture.

Our results demonstrated significant upward trend for

minimum and maximum temperature. Similarly, increased

climate variability was observed and also experienced by

local communities. Temperature change appeared to be in

accordance with farmers’ perception. Farmers reported

change in the timing, intensity, and pattern of rainfall over

the last 40 years. In contrast to farmers perception,

observed annual and seasonal rainfall showed insignificant

trends. Empirical evidence and earlier studies show chan-

ges in temperature and precipitation in different parts of

Nepal [10, 11, 22, 23]. Chaulagain [4] reported that the

climate in the Himalayas of Nepal is changing at a faster

rate than the global average. Aryal et al. [2] reported the

shift in tree line to higher elevation, drier farmlands, and

fewer irrigation channels under increasing temperature in

Mustang, Nepal. Similarly, Manandhar et al. [23], from

their study of temperature and rainfall trends in Rupendehi

and Mustang districts of Nepal, reported an increase in

temperature, and change in amount, timing, and intensity

of precipitation in both the lowlands and highlands of

Nepal. Similarly, extreme events and hazards like thun-

derstorms, landslides, flood, and drought were experienced

by farmers in Nepal (Fig. 7).

Increased variability in temperature and rainfall has

directed farmers to change the timing of agricultural

operations, and selection of crops, varieties, or both.

Changes in the selection of crops and varieties might not be

solely due to climate change. Factors like economic

incentives or support from local authorities/organizations,

infrastructures, demographic change, and market forces

and marketing strategies may have contributed toward the

shift of cropping choice, which was outside the scope of

this study. But change in the agricultural calendar in the

study area along with replacement of some economically

valuable crops like rice-maize by maize-millet rotation

indicates significant impacts of climate change and vari-

ability, and adjustment strategies to adapt the changes.

Although crop yields were stagnated in last 15 years

(1992–2008), yield of rice and wheat is reported to

decrease with every 1 �C rise in temperature; an increase in

temperature by 0.5 �C may reduce wheat yield by 0.45

tonnes per hectares [37]. Any change in temperature and

precipitation is likely to affect soil moisture, nutrient

turnover and physiological responses of crops to the insect-

pests and diseases, ultimately leading to higher vulnera-

bility of crops to disease and insect-pest problems [21, 35].

Increased disease and pest incidence including their

intensity perceived in our study corresponded to earlier

literature findings [9, 12, 13], which suggests change in

population size and range of hosts and pathogens, and

increase in the length of transmission season due to altered

temperature and precipitation.

Local communities have adjusted their cropping calen-

dar, and changed crops and varieties to adapt changing

climate and climatic variability (Fig. 8). Adjustments in

Table 4 Newly adopted varieties of major cereals and vegetables in Kabilash and Fulbari based on questionnaire survey

Crops Varieties newly adopted in Kabilash Varieties newly adopted in Fulbari Varieties lost or out of cultivation in

different parts of Nepal [38]

Cereals and pseudo cereals a

Rice Sabitri, OR, Japanese mansuli,

Rampur mansuli, Radha 4.

Sabatri, OR, Sama-mansuli, and

Hybrid varieties

Bhadaure-ghaiya, Kalinathredhan,

Kalodhan, Anadidhan, Ghotedhan,

Mansaradhan, Salidhan,

Maize Rampur-2, Rampur Composite Rampur Yellow, Rampur Composite Sathiyamakai

Wheat – NL-14, BL-1471, UP-182

Buckwheat – Tite and Mithe

Vegetables b

Cauliflower Kathmandu local, Hybrid varieties Kathmandu local, Hybrid varieties

Tomato Hybrid varieties Hybrid varieties

Potato – MS, Hetaude Nilo

Rajma – PDR-14

Carrot – Hybrid Tokida

Sunflower – Variety not known

List of varieties, either lost or out of cultivation due to climatic and non-climatic factors in different parts of Nepal including Chitwan were

obtained from published literatures [17, 38]a 105 Varieties of rice in Nepal were lost, and 48 are endangered (for detail see: [17] )b 24 Landraces of vegetable out of cultivation (for detail see [38] )

Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174 171

123

agricultural activities and timing of agricultural operations

have strengthened communities’ capacities to support their

livelihood but primarily for a short period. Switching

cropping sequences, adjusting timing of planting crops and

timing of other field operations, conserving soil moisture

through appropriate tillage methods, and improving irri-

gation efficiency are some adaptation measures that people

have opted as a response to changing climate and vari-

ability [30]. Meanwhile, an altered cropping calendar lar-

gely impacts physiological responses of plants to cope and

adjust in altered environments. Without understanding such

responses and developing management practices concur-

ring with the physiological changes in crops, adaptation

strategies might not be effective and sustainable. For

instance, Dahal [6] pointed out that usual winter rains in

Nepal have disappeared over the last 12 years and there is a

shift in the timing of monsoon rain. However, there is no

planned action to respond to such changes. Thus, planned

adaptation measures ought to be taken in advance of cli-

mate change impacts. Development of drought and flood

y = 0.0144x + 3.1532R² = 0.0874

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Prod

uctiv

ity (

Mg

ha-1

)

Year

Rainy seasonrice

Winterseason rice

Rice average

Linear (Riceaverage)

y = 0.0618x + 1.9104R² = 0.517

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Prod

uctiv

ity (

Mg

ha-1

)

Year

Rainy seasonmaize

Winterseason maize

Spring seasonmaize

Maizeaverage

Linear(Maizeaverage)

y = 0.009x + 2.3038R² = 0.0145

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Prod

uctiv

ity (

Mg

ha-1

)

Year

Wheat

Linear(Wheat)

(a)

(b)

(c)

Fig. 6 Productivity of rice (a),

maize (b), and wheat (c) in

Chitwan (1992–2008). Average

rice productivity is the average

of rainy and winter season rice,

and average maize productivity

is the average of rainy, spring,

and winter season maize

172 Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174

123

codes, establishment of gene banks and genetic gardens,

plans pertaining to sustainable use of water, climate resil-

ient farming system, and low cost technologies that pro-

mote comprehensive risk management are important to

cope with climate change and variability [37]. Further-

more, adjustments to the impact of soaring temperature can

be achieved by breeding activities that underscore crop

productivity per day [37]. Livelihood of small-holder

farming communities would be threatened in the absence

of suitable adjustment options, and governmental support

[36]. Consequently, the focus of governmental and non-

governmental organizations have to be centered toward

research and development activities to adapt and mitigate

the effects of climate change and variability, and increase

resiliency of communities through adaptation strategies.

Effective governance, strategic planning and policies, lar-

gely influencing, and motivating the behavior of people and

their decision making process are critical to strengthen

adaptive capacity to climate change and variability.

Conclusions

Analysis of long-term rainfall data from Chitwan, Nepal

did not show a clear trend. However, we observed variation

in the mean annual temperature, a upward trend for both

minimum and maximum temperature in Chitwan, and the

stagnation of crops yields in recent years. The highest

maximum temperature (39.1 �C) was recorded in May

1995 and lowest minimum temperature (6.7 �C) was

recorded in January 1970. Farmers in Chitwan have also

experienced extreme events and variability in climate, as

indicated by DesInventer, a disaster database for Kabilash,

resultant increases in disease, insect-pest incidences (wilt,

butterflies, and storage grain pests), and have concurrently

changed their cropping calendar, crops, and varieties.

Reactive measures like the introduction of new crops and

planned adaptation, aimed at a larger scale and longer

duration, is crucial to sustain the livelihood security of

small-holder farmers. Mainstreaming of climate change

and variability into policies and promulgation of adaptation

strategies via education, research, and extension is critical.

Further studies are necessary to advance our understanding

on climate change and variability, validate the close nexus

between climate change and alterations in agro-ecosys-

tems, and examine and strengthen community adaptation

strategies in Nepal.

Fig. 7 Flood, a natural disaster, causing erosion, and damage to

household properties in Chitwan (photo credit: Ecological Services

Center Nepal, photo by Rajan Ghimire and Rishi Adhikari)

Fig. 8 Sloping Land

Agricultural Technology

(SALT) for climate change

adaptation (soil conservation

against erosion by rain) in

Kabilash. SALT is a soil

conservation strategy where

legumes and/or other crops are

grown between contoured

hedgerows with fast growing

trees. (Photo credit: Ecological

Services Center Nepal, photo by

Rajan Ghimire and Rishi

Adhikari)

Agric Res (June 2014) 3(2):165–174 173

123

Acknowledgments The authors are highly indebted to Global

Future Institute (GFI), USA for financing the study. The authors

express their gratitude to Nabin Poudel, Arjun Pandey, Mukunda

Bhusal, Debendra Shrestha, Deepak Joshi and Tanka Kandel for

technical assistance, and Joseph Dale for helping edit the manuscript.

Thanks goes to Ecological Services Center Nepal for the photos, and

three annonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that

improved the manuscript considerably.

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