Dr Karyn Bosomworth (& SCARP)RMIT University

Adaptation pathways planning

context

Clean Energy Future Plan: Land Sector Measures

Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund

Stream 1SEWPAC

Stream 2DIICCSRTE

Element 1: National CC Projections CSIRO & BoM

Element 2: NRM CC Impacts &

Adaptation Research Program

Stream 1 AdaptNRM & CMAs

Stream 2 Research (Eg SCARP)

context

3

Southern Slopes Climate Change Adaptation Research Partnership

CSIRO 2014

research approach: co-design, -analysis & -production (PAR)

4

Scoping meetings

Focus groups and interviews

Planning workshops

Build relationshipsDefine scope

Understand contextSupport plannersEngage partners

Generate ideas Identify projects

four ‘needs’/ projects identified

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• support spatial analysis (CO2 seques’n)

• synthesise impacts & adapt’n info

• knowledge exchange

• manage for change (range of futures….)

Southern Slopes Information Portal

adaptation pathways

• ‘whats’• ‘whys’• ‘hows’•where to…..

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Adaptation pathways - SCARP

adaptation pathways – what is it?

Hassnoot et al 2013

Seed Consulting 2014

• robust and flexible strategies

• strategic rather than reactive

• dialogue

• from risk assessments to action planning

• allows action now with eye to long-term

• synergies with best practice NRM

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why pathways?

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adaptation pathways – what’s involved?

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adaptation pathways – establish goals & objectives

• asset/ landscape area scale • pathways aim• climate change-ready? (Dunlop et al 2013)

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adaptation pathways – current situation analysis

Explore ‘problem structure’• history• stakeholders• values divergence• system uncertainty• scales• capacities H

igh

syst

ems

unce

rtai

nty

Judgement: experiment, evaluation

Inspiration: learning, leadership, reframing, participation, social

learning

Low

sys

tem

s un

cert

aint

y

Computational: analysisBargaining: trade-offs,

reframing, collaborating?

Low value divergence (close to agreement)

High values divergence (far from agreement)

adaptation pathways – futures analysis

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• RCP8.5 high emissions• RCP4.5 & 6.0 intermediate• RCP2.6 very low emission

DRAFT

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adaptation pathways – develop pathways

Seed Consulting 2013

Hassnoot et al 2013

adaptation pathways – relationship to existing planning

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adaptation pathways & SCARP

Adaptation pathways - SCARP

Upcoming workshops • East Gipps - 17 Sep• Vic CMA forum - 23 Sep• SCARP CMAs – 24 Sep• NCCARF Conf – 30 Sept• GH CMA – 8 Oct• VASP PP – 22 Oct• Corang CMA – 10 Nov• ………..

Thank you

17Adaptation pathways - SCARP