Achieving SDGs: Key Priorities and Implementation

Challenges for South Asia and Sri Lanka

Nagesh Kumar

delivered at the Institute of Policy Studies

Colombo, 2 June 2016

Criticality of SDGs for South Asia

• The Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development, adopted at the United Nations Summit in September 2015, is a global compact comprising 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets, seeking to eliminate poverty and hunger and provide a life of dignity to all

• The SDGs are especially relevant for eight countries of South Asia which, despite their economic dynamism and remarkable MDG achievements, account for 40% of the world’s poor

• Suffer from a number of development and infrastructure gaps, and low levels of human development

• Given South Asia’s weight in the world population and poverty, the world cannot achieve SDGs with South Asia

Despite remarkable progress MDGs remain an unfinished agenda for South Asia

Sustainable Development Goals the unfinished MDG agenda

The first 7 goals represent the unfinished agenda of MDGs

1. End poverty

2. End hunger

3. Health for all

4. Quality education for all

5. Gender equality and women’s empowerment

6. Drinking water and sanitation for all

7. Affordable and sustainable modern energy for all

4

Sustainable Development Goals Some cross-cutting issues and drivers

8. Sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, decent jobs for all

9. Resilient infrastructure and inclusive and sustainable industrialization and innovation

10.Reduce inequality within and among countries

16. Peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable

development

5

Sustainable Development Goals Some aspects of environmental sustainability

6

11. Sustainable and resilient cities and habitats

12. Sustainable consumption and production

13. Address climate change and its impacts

14. Sustainable use of oceans, seas and marine

resources

15. Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and

management of forests and biodiversity

Sustainable Development Goals A renewed global partnership for development

17. Means of Implementation and revitalize global partnership for sustainable development

• Finance

• Technology

• Capacity-building

• Trade

• Systemic Issues

• Data, monitoring and accountability

Towards a policy agenda for SDG achievement in South Asia

• Interrelationships between many goals and targets

• Positive spillovers of integrating economic, social and environmental pillars

• Identify key policy priorities for South Asia that will help maximize the interrelationships and positive spillovers

a. Sustained, broad-based and job-creating rapid economic

growth

• Fastest growing subregion

• Growth not creating adequate jobs

• Employment elasticity of growth has been falling

• 80% of the workforce trapped in informal jobs without any social protection

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

An

nu

al

GD

P g

row

th r

ate

(%

)

East and North-East Asia North and Central AsiaSouth Asia South-East AsiaWorld

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pro

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mp

loym

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nt

an

nu

al g

row

th i

nG

DP

South Asia employment-GDP growth trends,(Employment growth elasticity, 5-year moving average, 1994-2010)

India SAARC-IND SAARC

5

8

11

12

13

14

29

44

95

92

89

88

87

86

71

56

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nepal

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Bhutan

Bangladesh

India

Sri Lanka

Maldives

Informal employment (% of employment)

Formal employment Informal employment

through industry-oriented structural transformation

-24.7

-18.0

-3.3 -2.7 -0.6 -0.1

19.2

12.8

3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka

Ch

ange

du

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ind

ust

ry c

on

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(p

op

ula

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illio

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Poverty Employment

• Structural transformation in South Asia moved from agriculture to industry bypassing the industry

• Agriculture still sustains nearly half of the workforce

• Share of manufacturing in GDP in South Asia much lower in South Asia compared to East Asian countries

• ESCAP-SANEM model simulations suggest that an industry-oriented growth will lift 25 million more people out of poverty

b. Closing gaps in infrastructure by providing essential

services to all

• Wide infrastructure gaps in South Asia

• Infrastructure availability affects achievement of other SDGs

• Access to infrastructure also source of inequality between rural and urban

• Important multiplier effects of infrastructure investment

• Huge requirement of resources to close the infrastructure gaps

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sco

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Global Competitiveness Index 2015/16 : Infrastructure - Scores and rankings of selected ESCAP countries

Rank Score

AFG

BGD

BTN

IND

MDV

NPL PAK

LKA

y = -1.2436x + 152.18 R² = 0.2308

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mat

ern

al m

ort

alit

y ra

tio

, 20

13

Paved roads (% of roads), 2012

Relationship between access to roads and maternal health

AFG

BGD BTN

IND

NPL PAK

LKA

y = 0.4746x + 47.185 R² = 0.5595

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100

Ad

ult

lite

racy

rat

e

Access to electricity (% of population), 2012

Relationship between electricity access and educational attainment

c. Harnessing demographic dividend through universal access to education and health

LKA MDV

IND

BGD NPL

PAK

y = -45.78ln(x) + 120.38 R² = 0.66

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

Un

de

r 5

mo

rtal

ity

rate

s, 2

01

2

Mean years of schooling, females, 2002-2012

Relationship between female education and child health

• Health and education SDGs are critical for South Asia to harness the demographic dividend from its youth bulge

• Although MDG targets for primary enrolment and completion met, quality remains an issue

• Wide gender gap in education at higher levels

• Nexus between education and health

• Low public expenditure (2-4% of GDP) against the recommended 6% on education

• South Asia needs to move towards universal health coverage

d. Social protection and financial inclusion for reducing

inequalities, poverty and other deprivations

BGD

BTN

IND

NPL

PAK LKA

y = -0.52x + 40.01 R² = 0.34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 20 40 60 80 100Po

vert

y h

ead

cou

nt

rati

o a

t $

1.9

0 a

day

(2

01

1

PP

P)

Account at a financial institution (% age 15+)

Relationship between financial inclusion and poverty

2.5

3.4

3.7

3.9

10.3

14

24.1

33.5

41.3

58.6

95.4

97.5

96.6

96.3

96.1

89.7

86

75.9

66.5

58.7

41.4

4.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Bangladesh

Nepal

Afghanistan

Pakistan

India

Bhutan

Sri Lanka

China

World Average*

Turkey

Japan

Social security coverage (% of employment)

Employment with social securityEmployment without social security

• Rising inequalities in South Asia; inequality adjusted per capita incomes lower • Low levels of financial inclusion and poor social security coverage related with

prevalence of poverty in South Asia • Extending financial inclusion and social protection coverage critical for SDG

achievement • South Asia has important models that can be replicated including Benazir Income

Support Programme in Pakistan, MGNREGA in India, Samruddhi programme in Sir Lanka, and conditional cash transfers in Bangladesh

e. Addressing food security and hunger with agricultural productivity improvements through sustainable agriculture

• A new green revolution based sustainable agriculture doubling the agricultural productivity by 2030 will not only enhance food security but will also lead to creation of 13 million additional jobs and will pull 16 million additional people out of poverty

(16.13)

(9.42)

(2.52) (2.04) (2.00)

(0.15)

12.85

6.68

2.54 1.85 1.43

0.34

(20.00)

(15.00)

(10.00)

(5.00)

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

Ch

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ity

(po

pu

lati

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, m

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Poverty Employment

f. Promoting gender equality and women’s empowerment through entrepreneurship

• Although MDG goal on gender equality in primary and secondary education achieved, South Asia lags behind in economic and political empowerment of women

• Low female workforce participation rate

• Opportunity cost gender inequality very high ranging between $800 billion to $3.5 trillion additional GDP by 2025 in South Asia

• Promoting women’s entrepreneurship through gender specific ecosystem and credit facilities for women entrepreneurs

64 62

61 57

48 48

44

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

in $

tri

llio

n

in p

er

cen

t

Incremental 2025 GDP (in %): Full potential scenarioIncremental 2025 GDP (in %): Best-in-region scenarioGender parity (in %)Incremental 2025 GDP (2014 $ trillion): Best-in- region scenarioIncremental 2025 (in GDP 2014 $ trillion): Full potential scenario

g. Enhancing the environmental sustainability

through low-carbon climate-resilient pathways to

development

• Growing vulnerability to climate change and disasters

• Addressing the challenges through enhancing energy efficiency and mix

• Sustainable urbanization

• Sustainable production, consumption and waste recycling

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Urb

an

po

pu

lati

on

sh

are

(%

)

South Asia urbanization, 2015 and 2050

2015 2050

Accessing means of implementation for finance

• Huge resource requirements for achieving SDGs

• Domestic resource mobilization – Tax potential, expanding the tax base,

efficiency of tax collection etc.

– Development and deepening of capital markets

• ODA: meeting the elusive 0.7% target

• Development of regional financial architecture – New multilateral development banks

will increase options for the subregion

• Evolving a development-friendly global economic governance

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

East an

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South

East A

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South

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India

Ma

ldiv

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pal

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tan

Sri L

anka

per

cen

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f G

DP

2005

2013

Technology facilitation for SDGs

• Access to technology a major concern for developing countries for implementing SDGs in the context of high concentration of technology generation activity

• The pattern of concentration has changed only slightly over the past three decades

• Access to environmentally sensitive technologies will be critical for implementing SDGs in South Asia

Nagesh Kumar 18

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

R & D Expenditure (as percent of total)

1995

2005

2012

0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00

100.00

pe

rce

nt

of

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Patents taken at USPTO

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2013

Geography of Innovation

19

Technology Facilitation for SDGs

• For easy access to technologies by developing countries – Moratorium on further strengthening of IPRs

– Extending public health waver to ESTs

– Granting flexibility to developing countries in implementing TRIPs

– Differential pricing for technology licensing

– Strengthening TRIPs provisions (art 66.2) for transfer of technology including environmental technologies for developing and least developed countries

• Enhancing indigenous innovations

• Harnessing frugal engineering capabilities of South Asia for developing low-carbon affordable products and processes

• Pooling of resources for joint solutions for shared challenges

• Much potential of regional cooperation and coordination in implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda

• Sharing development experiences • building up productive capacities through a coordinated

industrial development strategy, strengthened regional connectivity and regional value chains

• strengthening their collective energy and food security, and enhance resilience to natural disasters

• Pooling resources for development of low-carbon pathways

• SAARC leaders have called for regional cooperation for contexualization of SDGs and coordination in implementation

• UNESCAP stands ready to support and assist SAARC SDG process promote regional cooperation and integration in South Asia

Regional Cooperation for SDGs

Concluding remarks

• The 2030 Agenda a unique opportunity to provide a life of dignity to all, within a generation for South Asia

• South Asia’s turn to lead the global achievements

• Accelerate achievements through exploitation of inter-linkages

• Seven key policy priorities may help accelerate progress – including industry-oriented job creating economic growth, closing gaps in basic infrastructure,

providing universal education and health, social protection, women entrepreneurship,

sustainable agriculture and low carbon growth paths

• Exploit the potential of domestic resource mobilization

• Stronger global partnership for finance, technology and market access

• Critical role of regional cooperation and integration

22

Thank you

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