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Nigeria Election Watch UpdateNovember 2014: Summary Note

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Nigerian elections have earned the reputation of being a process of negotiated compromises with the same negotiators at the table – powerful elites and regional interest groups - leaving the average voter with little genuine choice and ownership of the process. With roughly half the governors’ seats up for grabs, a series of high pro�le political defections, lingering state of emergency in the North East, tensions within the military and growing skepticism regarding the Government’s inability to end the Boko Haram insurgency, Nigerians are more weary than ever about the nation’s political prospects. Hopes that the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may �nally have credible opposition are being taken with a considerable pinch of salt by more cautious observers as the hesitation by the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) to �eld fresh political actors as candidates has given rise to the perception of a dearth of ideological leadership in the much vaunted opposition, leaving the electorate more despondent than optimistic. �e hesitation is founded in an internal battle for power between ‘young Governors’ who control vast state budgets and public machinery and elder statesmen as traditional party leaders who, ordinarily well funded, are now having to contend more and more with liquidity challenges.

High profile defections

► PartydecampingisastapleoftheNigerianpoliticalprocessbutthestakeshavebeenheightenedbytheemergenceoftheAPCasa‘national-level’opposition,leadingtoaseriesofhighprofiledefectionsaspoliticiansjostleforcontinuedrelevanceorstruggletoachievedefinedambitions

► ThedepartureoftheSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentativesfromtherulingpartyismorelikelybasedonthecalculationthathischancesofsecuringtheSokotoStategovernor’sseatcome2015arehigherwiththeoppositionAPCwhichisalreadyinpowerinthatstate.

► In the context of Nigeria’s zero-sum politics, defections signify not only the potential transfer ofpoliticalgoodwillandsupportfromonepartytoanotherbutalsoanimportantshiftincontrolofstatemachineryandresources,andthusultimatelyelectoralvotes.Bothmajorpartieshavebenefitedfromthedefectionsbutitmustnotbeforgottenthatdefectionsareprimarilystrategicmovesbypoliticianstosecuretheircontinuedpoliticalrelevanceorachievedefiniteaspirations.

► Besidesdefections,otherchangesresultingfromelectionsandimpeachmentprocessesmeanthattherulingPDPnowhasatotalof21outof36statesunderitsbeltaheadofthegeneralelectionsbutthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanall21willautomaticallyvoteforaPDPcandidateatthepresidentialelectionson 14thFebruary.Previouspollshaveshownthatthereareotherconsiderationsthatcouldmakeastateundertheleadershipofonepartyvotefortheoppositionatthelevelofpresidentialelections.

Party tickets and the battle for power

► Gubernatorial elections: The current tenures of 29 of the 36 state governors are due to end next year, with only 10of them eligible for re-election for a second term. In those10 states, thepowerof incumbency shouldensure that thesitting governor is returned in many cases which may leadpartiestogiveautomaticsecondtermticketstotheireligiblegovernors,somethingthePDPhasalreadydone.Thepowerofincumbency remains present but is less potent in the 19 states wherefreshcandidatesmustemerge-12ofthosestatesarealreadyunderthePDP’scontrolbutitislikelytoseeastrongchallengefromtheoppositionAPCinstateslikeKatsinaintheNorth-West(homeofoppositionparty leaderandlikelyAPCpresidential candidate Buhari) andOndo in the South-West(traditional APC stronghold). Party primaries scheduled forvarious dates between November 29 and December 10 are goingtobehotlycontested.

NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria

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► Presidential elections:TherulingpartyhassettledonPresidentJonathanforthepresidentialticketbutaquestionremainsastowhetherthePresidentwillchoosetoretainVice-PresidentSamboashisrunningmateordrophiminfavourofamoreinfluentialpersonalitythatcanpullmorevotesfromtheNorth-West.WebelievethisisunlikelyasJonathanwouldbewaryofco-optingaVPthatcouldbecometoopowerful;heismorelikelytorelyonstategovernors,legislatorsandpoliticalappointeestodelivertheneededvotesincontestedterritory.FortheAPC,theroadtothepresidentialelectionsisnotclear-cutwiththepartyinitiallyspeakingofaconsensuschoicefortheticketbutnowmovingtowardsorganisingprimaries.Althoughtherearenowfiveinterestedcontenders-formerheadofstateMuhammaduBuhariandformervice-presidentAtikuAbubakar,KanoStategovernorRabiuKwankwaso,ImoStateGovernorRochasOkorochaandownerofLeadershipNewspaperSamNda-Isaiah-itlooksasthoughtheraceisprimarilybetweenBuhariandAbubakar,withtheformerappearingthefavouritehavingsecuredthesupportoftheparty’sSouth-Westleadership.ThissupportcouldseeBuhariwintheprimariesbecausetheSouth-WesthasthemostgovernorsandmembersintheNationalAssemblywhichequatestoahighnumberofpartydelegates;italsomeansBuhari’srunningmateislikelytoemergefromthatregion.NonethelessNigerianpoliticsiscomplexenoughthatotherinterestscannotbesummarilydismissedandGovernorKwankwasoremainsanoutlierpossibilityfortheAPCticket,justasGovernorOkorocha,theonlyEasternerintherace,couldactuallybeanglingfortheVice-PresidencyunderoneoftheNortherncandidates.

Boko Haram and the importance of elections in the North-East

► A cease-fire agreement with Boko Haram precipitously announced by the governmentappeared repudiatedalmost immediatelywithattacks inBornoandAdamawaStates(includingtheseizureofanothertown),andmostrecentlybombingsin Yobe state. This has swelled disenchantmentwith the government’s handlingoftheinsurgency,ashastheperceivedmishandlingoftheprosecutionofservingSenatorNdumeofBornostateAPConchargesofterrorism,whilealsoincreasingconcernsmadevocalbytheopposition,aboutthepossibledisenfranchisementoftheentireregioncome2015.

► Interestingly SenatorNdume recently introduced a bill thatwould paveway foralternativeprovisionstobemadefor internallydisplacedpersons inBorno,YobeandAdamawaStatestovoteintheforthcomingelections.Howevertheregionisprobablymorepolitically important to the PDP than to theAPC simply becausemostpartsof theNorth-eastheldby insurgents areChristian-dominated (Mubi,Magari) andmore likely to support aChristianpresidential candidate. ThereforefailuretoconductelectionsinthoseareasismorelikelyalossofvotesforPresidentJonathanandthePDP,nottheoppositionAPC.

A weakening Naira squeezes election resources

► TheNairahasexperiencedsubstantialdepreciationinthelastfewweeksdroppingto171againstthedollarlastMondaywithforeignreservesdowntoUS$3.6billionthismonthas theCentralBank struggles to shoreup thecurrency.Governmentrecently announced a spending cut of 6% in 2015 (with a benchmark oil priceloweredfrom$78/barrelto$73/barrel),immediatecutsonspendingfortravelinthepublicsectoraswellasapotential ‘luxury’taxon items likechampagneandtravelbyprivatejet–itremainstobeseenifthesewillhavetheneededimpact.ThewithdrawalofdemandforcrudefromtheUSandtheconsequentdropinglobaloil prices spell trouble for an economy over reliant on oil while in terms of ongoing electioneering,thepressureonthenairameanslessresourcesavailabletopartiesandpoliticiansaheadofthepolls.


Important changes to the political map in October have favoured the PDP:

• Ekiti -PDP’sFayosesworn-inasgovernorafteroustingAPC’sFayemiintheJunegubernatorialelections

• Adamawa - Deputy Governor Ngilari of PDP sworn-in as GovernorfollowingimpeachmentofAPC’sNyako

• Ondo-GovernorMimikodefectedfromtheLabourPartytothePDP

Gubernatorial Elections 2015

Following these developments, PDP is ruling in 21 states, APC in 14 and APGA in 1. However the current balance of power at state level does not necessarily reflect voting patterns for the presidential elections and there are other considerations that could make a ‘PDP state’ for example, vote an ‘APC president’. Additionally with only a few governors up for re-election and most stepping down, the power of incumbency will play a less potent role in the coming elections.

Peoples Democratic Party - PDP

All Progressives Congress - APC

All Progressives Grand Alliance - APGA

Governor eligible for re-election 10 states (3 PDP, 7 APC )

No gubernatorial elections in February7 states (1 APGA, 2 APC, 3 PDP)

Governor not eligible for election19 states (12 PDP, 7 APC)??

BornoBornoBorno

YobeYobeYobe

GombeGombeGombeBauchiBauchiBauchi

Jigawa

KadunaKadunaKaduna

KatsinaKatsinaKatsinaZamfaraZamfaraZamfara

SokotoSokotoSokoto

KebbiKebbiKebbi

NigerNigerNiger

KwaraKwaraKwara

OyoOyoOyo

OgunOgunOgun

LagosLagosLagosLagosLagosLagos

BenueBenueBenue

AdamawaAdamawaAdamawa

NassarawaNassarawaNassarawa

DeltaDeltaDelta

Rivers

ImoAbia

PlateauPlateauPlateau

Enugu

EbonyiCrossCrossRiverRiverCrossRiver

Abuja

AdamawaAdamawaAdamawaAdamawa

Rivers

ImoImoImoImoImo

BornoBornoBornoBornoBorno

GombeGombeGombeGombeKadunaKadunaKadunaKadunaKaduna

KwaraKwaraKwaraKwaraKwara

ZamfaraZamfaraZamfaraZamfara

NassarawaNassarawaNassarawaNassarawaOyoOyoOyoOyoOyo

OgunOgunOgunOgunOgunEdoEdoEdo

BayelsaBayelsaBayelsa

AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambra

EkitiEkiti KojiKojiKoji

OndoOndoOndo

OsunOsun

Kano

TarabaTarabaTaraba

IbomIbomAkwaIbom

BenueBenueBenueBenueBenue ??TarabaTarabaTarabaTarabaTaraba

??

PlateauPlateauPlateauPlateau

??

YobeYobeYobeYobeYobe

??JigawaJigawaJigawaJigawaJigawa

??KanoKanoKanoKanoKano

??

KatsinaKatsinaKatsinaKatsinaKatsina

??

SokotoSokotoSokotoSokotoSokoto

??

KebbiKebbiKebbiKebbiKebbi

??

EnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnugu

EbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyi

EnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnugu

AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambra

??EbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiCrossCrossCrossCrossEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyi

??

AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaImoImoImoImoImo

AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbia

AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraEbonyi

AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraEbonyiEbonyi

??

RiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRivers

??

DeltaDeltaDeltaDeltaDelta ??

OgunOgunOgunOgun

LagosLagosLagosLagosLagosLagos ??RiverRiverRiverRiverRiver

??

BauchiBauchiBauchiBauchi

??NigerNigerNigerNigerNiger

??

AkwaAkwaAkwaAkwaAkwa

AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbia

??



All Progressives Grand Alliance - APGA

Governor eligible for re-election 10 states (3 PDP, 7 APC )

No gubernatorial elections in February7 states (1 APGA, 2 APC, 3 PDP)

Governor not eligible for election19 states (12 PDP, 7 APC)??



Borno

Yobe

GombeBauchi

Jigawa

Kaduna

KatsinaZamfara

Sokoto

Kebbi

Niger

Kwara

Oyo

Ogun

Lagos

Benue

Adamawa

Nassarawa

Delta

Rivers

ImoAbia

Plateau

Enugu

EbonyiCrossRiver

Abuja

Edo

Bayelsa

Anambra

Ekiti Koji

Ondo

Osun

Kano

Taraba

AkwaIbom

?? ??

??

??????

????

??

?? ??

??

??

??

??

??

??

??

??

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December 20141st APC House of Assembly primaries

4th APC Gubernatorial Primaries

6th PDP House of Representatives Primaries

7th PDP Senate Primaries

8th PDP Gubernatorial primaries

APC House of Representatives Primaries

9th APC Senate Primaries

10th PDP Presidential Primaries

APC Presidential Primaries

11th End of party primaries

30th Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Presidential & National Assembly candidates

January 201513th Publication of official register of voters

Publication of list of nominated candidates for Presidential & National Assembly elections

Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Gubernatorial & State Assembly candidates

27th Publication of list of nominated candidates for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections

February 201512th Last day of campaigns for Presidential

& National Assembly elections

14th Presidential & National Assembly elections

26th Last day of campaigns for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections

28th Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections

November 2014November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential


29th PDP House of Assembly Primaries

30th Campaigns commence for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections

APC Internal Schedule

INEC Election timetable

PDP Internal schedule


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November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential








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November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential







2015 General Elections Calendar

Key Points:• 2015ElectionsTimetablereleasedbyINECinJanuaryfixedpartyprimariesbetweenOctober2ndandDecember11th.• Bothpartiesearlier scheduledprimaries inNovemberbuthave recentlymade changes to their internaltimetables–

primarilystrategicdecisionsbasedontheneedtoproperlytimeandorderthedisclosureofpartytickets.• Fortheopposition,allowingtherulingpartytoholdprimariesfirstgivesthepotentialadvantageofbeingabletopoach

disgruntledpartymemberswholostoutandarewillingtobreakranks.• APC hasmoved the primaries for national and state legislatures by twoweeks while gubernatorial and presidential

primariesweremovedbytwodays.Withthenewschedule,APCholds itsNationalAssemblyprimariesafter thePDPwhileitspresidentialprimariestakeplacethesamedayastherulingparty’s.

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