accountable care organizations: can they improve population health?

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University of Texas Clinical Effectiveness and Safety Conference Grand Hyatt Hotel San Antonio, Texas September 26, 2013 ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH? Stephen M. Shortell, Ph.D. Blue Cross of California Distinguished Professor of Health Policy and Management Dean Emeritus, School of Public Health University of California-Berkeley

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ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?. Stephen M. Shortell, Ph.D. Blue Cross of California Distinguished Professor of Health Policy and Management Dean Emeritus, School of Public Health University of California-Berkeley. University of Texas - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

University of TexasClinical Effectiveness and Safety ConferenceGrand Hyatt HotelSan Antonio, TexasSeptember 26, 2013

ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION

HEALTH?

Stephen M. Shortell, Ph.D.Blue Cross of California Distinguished Professor of

Health Policy and ManagementDean Emeritus, School of Public Health

University of California-Berkeley

Page 2: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

We have gone from…

Page 3: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

They are almost everywhere

A family of “multicorns”

Page 4: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

ACOs are entities that accept accountability for the cost and quality of care provided to a defined population of potential patients

Accountable Care Organizations

(ACOs)

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• 32 Pioneers

• 222 Shared Savings

• Over 200 Private Sector

Accountable Care Organizations

Page 6: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

Reaching for the Triple Aim

Improved quality and overall patient experience

Constrained

costs

Improved population health

Page 7: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

ACOs can control costs

ACOs can improve care

Page 8: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

But by themselves, ACOs cannot improve

population health

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Personal behaviors 30%Physical and social environment 30%Genetics 30%Health care delivery 10%

The Determinants of Health

Source: McGinnis, J. Michael and William H. Foege, “Actual Causes of Death in the United States,” Journal of the American Medical Association 270(18):2207-12,November 10, 2003.

Page 10: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

And do they control costs?

Do they improve care?

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We have a pervasive, long-standing “chronic illness”: fragmented care

Solution:

Problem:

Create systems of integrated care

Page 12: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

“But I make my money from fragmented care.”

Solution:

Problem:

Not any more!

Page 13: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

Some Key Issues

• Enrollment size matters – achieve sufficient savings to spread overhead and related costs

• Care management is key:• 5/50 stratification• Multiple chronic illness, frail elderly, dual eligibles,

mental illness

Page 14: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

Some Key Issues(cont’d)

• Building new relationships• Business model changes most for hospitals• Integrating different professional/social identities• Collaborative governance

• New tools required:• Information exchange across the continuum• Predictive risk modeling

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Some Key Issues(cont’d)

• Patient activation and engagement

• Agreeing on a common set of cost and quality measures and thresholds, across payer contracts

Page 16: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

What is Needed?

A New Care Management Platform

Page 17: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

New Care Management Platform

• Reduce office visits• Expand between-visit at-home care

management• Improve “hand-offs”• Smoother “glide paths” to health recovery• Technology enabled within a foundation of

continuous improvement.

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Some Required Changes

• Inpatient Care Workflow and Redesign

• Care Transition Management • e.g. Coleman Care Transition Model

• Physician Referral Patterns

• Interoperable EHRs

• From Inpatient Margin to Total Care Margin

Page 19: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

Early Lessons from Brookings-Dartmouth ACO Pilot Studies

Source: B.K Larson, A.D. VanCitters, S.A.Kreindler, K. Carluzzo, J. Gbemudu, F. Wu, E.C. Nelson, S. Shortell, E. Fisher. “Insights from transformations under way at four Brookings-Dartmouth accountable care organization pilot sites.,” Health Affairs, 2012 Nov;31(11):2395-406.

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Common Challenges:

• Developing the care management capabilities across the entire continuum

• Building trusting relationships with physicians, payers and other partners

• Navigating the legal and contractual relationships

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Common Elements Across All Four Sites:

• Electronic health record functionality• Disease registries

• Data warehouses

• Predictive modeling to identify high-risk patients

• High-risk patient complex care management programs

• Physician champions

• Mature quality improvement – Six Sigma, LEAN

Page 22: ACCOUNTABLE CARE ORGANIZATIONS: CAN THEY IMPROVE POPULATION HEALTH?

Facilitators of ACO Formation and System Transformation

Factor Role and Importance

Facilitators of ACO Formation

Facilitators of Executive Leadership and Strong Governance

Supports development of shared aims, prioritizes resources and removes obstacles to allow for transformational change

Strong Payer-Provider Relationship Facilitates trust and recognition of shared aims to overcome challenges in developing the ACO infrastructure

Experience with Performance-Based Payment

Develops capability to bear risk, aligns financial incentives and drives performance

Source: B.K Larson, A.D. VanCitters, S.A.Kreindler, K. Carluzzo, J. Gbemudu, F. Wu, E.C. Nelson, S. Shortell, E. Fisher. “Insights from transformations under way at four Brookings-Dartmouth accountable care organization pilot sites.,” Health Affairs, 2012 Nov;31(11):2395-406.

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Facilitators of ACO Formation and System Transformation (cont’d)

Factor Role and Importance

Facilitators of System Transformation

Robust Health Information Technology Infrastructure

Supports data collection and reporting to identify waste, coordinate care, improve performance, and measure outcomes

Strong Care Management Capabilities Provides tools and infrastructure to manage population health and improve care coordination

Performance Measurement and Transparency

Improves population health, supports care coordination, eliminates waste, and ensures accountability

Effective Physician Engagement Perpetuates awareness and support throughout the system and develops physician champions for the model

Source: B.K Larson, A.D. VanCitters, S.A.Kreindler, K. Carluzzo, J. Gbemudu, F. Wu, E.C. Nelson, S. Shortell, E. Fisher. “Insights from transformations under way at four Brookings-Dartmouth accountable care organization pilot sites.,” Health Affairs, 2012 Nov;31(11):2395-406.

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Importance of Managing Social Identities

• Balance organizational identity/socialization with professional identity/socialization

• Use ACOs as a framework or mechanism or vehicle for promoting more integrated coordinated care

See: S.A. Kreindler, B.K. Larson, F.M. Wu, J. K.L. Carluzzo, A.D. Van Citters, S.M. Shortell,

E.C. Nelson, and E.S. Fisher. “Interpretations of Integration in Early Accountable

Care Organizations,” Milbank Quarterly, Vol, 90, No. 3, 2102, pp. 457-483.

 

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ACO’s Are in the Eye of the Beholder

• An IPA: it’s about better coordinated care, not integration

• A medical group: it’s about integration for employed physicians, but not affiliates

• A hospital system: it’s about developing an equal partnership between physicians and the hospital

• An integrated delivery system: it’s about a cultural change, not a structural change

See: S.A. Kreindler, B.K. Larson, F.M. Wu, J. K.L. Carluzzo, A.D. Van Citters, S.M. Shortell,

E.C. Nelson, and E.S. Fischer. “Interpretations of Integration in Early Accountable

Care Organizations,” Milbank Quarterly, Vol, 90, No. 3, 2102, pp. 457-483.

 

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Are ACOs More Than a Guess?

Some emerging evidence

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The Downside

Of the 32 Pioneer ACOs:•14 Generated losses for Medicare• 7 Increased costs enough that they owe Medicare $4.5 million• 7 Will transition to Medicare’s more flexible Shared Savings Program•2 Will drop out of Medicare accountable care

Source: “Complex Coordination, “ Modern Healthcare Magazine, July 22, 2013

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Medicare Physician Group Practice Demonstration

• Annual savings per beneficiary/year were modest overall

• But significant for dual eligible population – over $500 per beneficiary, per year

• Improvement on nearly all of 32 quality of care measures

Source: CH Colla, DE Wennberg, E. Meara, et al. “Spending Differences Associated

with the Medicare Physician Group Practice Demonstration.” JAMA,

September 12, 2012, 308 (10) 1015-23.

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Results of Massachusetts Alternative Quality Contract (AQC)

• Based on global budget and pay-for-performance• 2.8 percent savings over two years compared to

control group• Shifted procedures, imaging and tests to facilities

with lower fees plus reduced utilization• Quality of care improved by 3.7 percentage points

on chronic care management measures• Savings were greater in second year than first

year, and quality improvement was greater in second year than first year.

Source: Z. Song, S.G. Safran, B. E. Landon, et al. Health Affairs, August 2012,

1885-1894.

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Comparison of Accountable Physician Practices Versus Other Practices

Quality Measures U.S CAPP Non-CAPP

Relative risk ratio

Relative risk ratio

Mammography in women ages 65-69

50.4% 57.9% 53.1% 1.11 1.12

Completion of all three diabetic tests

53.9% 63.4% 57.1% 1.12 1.15

ACS admission rate; rate per 100

8.3 6.9 8.4 0.82 0.92

Cost Measures U.S CAPP Non-CAPP

Relative risk ratio

CAPP-

non-CAPP difference

Standardized MD in 2005 $2,881 $2,764 $3,003 -$239 -$176

Standardized hospital spending in 2005

$2,405 $2,193 $2,428 -$235 -$103

Total standardized CMS payments in 2005

$7,406 $7,053 $7,593 -$540 -$272

Crude measures Adjusted measures

Source: Weeks WB, Gottlieb DJ, Nyweide, DJ, et al. “Higher Health Care Quality and Bigger Savings Found at Large Multispecialty Medical Groups,” Health Affairs. May 10, 2010, 29(5): 991-997

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Sacramento Blue Shield:Dignity-Hill-Calpers Experience

• 42,000 Calpers Members

• Set target premium first – no increase in 2010– and then worked backward to achieve it

• Saved $20 million -- $5 million more than target, while meeting quality metrics

• Package of interventions:

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Sacramento Blue Shield:Dignity-Hill-Calpers Experience (cont’d)

• Package of interventions:• Integrated discharge planning• Care transitions and patient engagement• Created a health information exchange• Found that top 5,000 members accounted for 75% of

spending• Evidence-based variance reduction• Visible dashboard of measures to track progress

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But what about population health?

How do we bridge the divide

between health and health care?

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The challenge is to move from a culture of sickness to a culture of health.

How do we create a market for health?

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Changing payment toward risk-based

global budgets unleashed great

opportunities for innovation.

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Pay technology-enabled, team-based systems of care to keep people well.

Requires people engagement, not just patient engagement

Requires community-wide population focus, not just individual ACO or integrated delivery system focus

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Building Blocks of the Community Health Care Management System

Capability Wheel

Identification of community assets, capabilities, and resource requirement

Alignment of service providers, managers, and governance within and across medical, health, and community sectors

Community population-based needs assessment

Source: Shortell, S.M. , R.R. Gillies, D.A. Anderson, et al. Remaking Healthcare in America: The Evolution of Organized Delivery Systems, 2nd edition, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2000

Information Systems

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CommunityA group of individuals with a

sense of shared space, shared responsibilities, and perceived

interdependence

EducationEducationHealthcare

Delivery System

Healthcare Delivery System

Religious Organization

Religious Organization

Physical and Social

Environment

Physical and Social

EnvironmentHousingHousing JobsJobs

Family Support Services

Family Support Services

Chronically well Sporadically well Sporadically ill Chronically ill

Adapted from Shortell, S.M. , R.R. Gillies, D.A. Anderson, et al. Remaking Healthcare in America: The Evolution of Organized Delivery Systems, 2nd edition, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2000, page 64

Population-Based Health Continuum Goal: Creating the Chronically Well

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• Redefine the “product”• From illness to wellness• From patients to healthy people

• Redefine the place• From office, clinic or hospital bed to home,

workplace, school

• Redefine the “providers”• Beyond healthcare professionals to teachers, social

workers, architects, urban planners, community development specialists

Delivery System Changes

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Population Health Data Management

• Collect individual health status data

• Stratify populations based on risk/need for care predictive model

• Tools to engage people in their health and health care

• Health information exchange capabilities – portability of records

• Workflow tools for providers to use evidence-based protocols

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Public Health Sector Changes

• Greater flexibility in use of funds

• New partnerships with delivery systems

• Better targeting of those most in need of preventive services

• Joint development of goals with metrics to measure progress

• Shared infrastructure for sustainability of workforce

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Community-Development and Social Service Sector Changes

• “Health in All” policies

• Health effects of zoning regulations, housing permits, transportation, labor, and educational policies

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A Bold Proposal

CMS and other payers:•Create a risk-adjusted population-wide health budget to be overseen by a community-wide entity tied to multi-year performance targets

Examples might include:•Reduction in newly diagnosed diabetics•Reduced infant mortality•Reduced pre-term births•Reduced obesity rates – children and adults•Lower blood pressure for CHF Patients•Reduced disability and work loss days due to illness•Greater functional health status scores among samples of the populationSource: S.M. Shortell, “A Bold Proposal for Advancing Population Health,” Discussion Paper, Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Science, August 8, 2013.

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Some Interest in California

Payment Reform Ideas (1 = Low to 10 = High)

Create Accountable Care Communities Focused on Population 7.5

Pilot Incentives in a Community to Link Delivery System and 7.0Community Efforts to Improve Health

Is your Organization Attempting to Link Patient Care with Yes = 67%Private or Public Community Efforts to Improve Population Health?

Source: CAL SIMS Project, Integrated Health Association, May 16. 2013

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Some Examples

• Cambridge Health Alliance

• Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Federal Reserve Board Human Capital Investments

• Ontario Family Health Networks

• Others on the IOM Roundtable

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Key Challenge

Building the needed partnerships based on:

•Shared goals•Shared information, •Innovations in use of human resources•Cross-sector, cross-boundary leadership

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47

We work to keep you out of bed.

VISIONARY HEALTH SYSTEM

Have you seen this billboard yet?

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Thank You

“Healthier Lives In A Safer World”