abundance economics
TRANSCRIPT
Tempe AZ, May 24, 2016Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
A Hegelian Complexity Theory of
Abundance EconomicsPart of a Series on Cryptophilosophy
cryptophilosophy
Melanie SwanPhilosophy & Economic Theory
New School for Social Research, NY [email protected]
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 2
Melanie Swan Philosophy and Economic Theory, New School
for Social Research, NY Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and
Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE Essayist; FQXi Advisor (Foundational Questions Inst)
Traditional Markets Background Economic Theory Leadership
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Book: Blockchain: Blueprint for a New Economy
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Thesis StatementAbundance Economics
3
A new philosophy of economics is needed that is adequate to the
contemporary moment, configuring a mindset shift from 1) survival to fulfillment,
2) scarcity to abundance, and 3) centralization to decentralization
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Successful societies recognize that economics is shifting to the greater production and consumption of “social goods” in complement to “material goods” Social goods such as trust, dignity, abundance, opportunity,
creative expression, fulfillment, challenge, collaboration, status, certainty, availability, contingency, willingness, cognitive surplus
Claim: societies with less income inequality have greater cohesion and trust, and are better poised to move more quickly into the abundance economics of the future Blockchain technology is a key mechanism for building new
forms of societal shared trust Modern society arrived with trust beyond kinship groups; similar
expansion now beyond hierarchical models with decentralization
Thesis StatementTrust-based Social Goods
4Source: http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/swan20151101
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 5
http://www.robotandhwang.com/attorneys/
Law Firm, San Francisco CA
Algorithmic Reality
Developing empowering
human-machine collaborations
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Algorithmic Reality Proliferation of Computing
Platforms Increasing presence of technology Everything is a math problem
Drones, self-driving cars, personal home robots, quantified-self gadgets, Siri-commanded mobile phones, blockchain smart contract DACs, tradenets, deep-learning algorithms, big data clouds, brain-computer interfaces, neural hacking devices, augmented reality headsets, deep-learning, gaming worlds
6Source: Swan, M. Rethinking Authority With The Blockchain Crypto Enlightenment. Response to The Edge Question 2016: What do you consider the most interesting recent news? What makes it important? John Brockman, Ed., 2016.
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Algorithmic Reality: Gridworld, Cloudworld Each technology class is a platform, network,
and app store…the implication is cloudworld Any platform can run any other
Every network is a Turing-complete general computational substrate for every other
Any technology can immediately ‘grok,’ simulate, and run any other
Cloudworld is the notion of a deep multiplicity of networks as a compositional element of new algorithmic realities
What does this mean for humans?
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May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Modern Relations with Technology
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The Prosthetic Relation The Drone Relation
L’Intrus (The Intruder) – Jean-Luc Nancy Théorie du drone (Drone Theory) – Gregoire Chamayou
Impoverished relation:roving invisible Panopticon, never
safe from unseen eyes
Intimate relation: Accepting the foreign into our own body
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
The Data Relation Cloud, background, crunching away,
silent tracking, continuous uploading Algorithms predicting and even defining
our preferences What is our relation? Impoverished:
neither side has full mental model of the other (the very basis for conducive interaction with another) Data models humans as a sketch:
purchasing agent not aspirational being Humans have no way see, grasp or act
on big data, it acts on us (drone relation)
9
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Think through the problem of human-machine collaboration in one of the most vulnerable cases:
opening our brains up to big data in BCI Cloudminds (cloud-based thinking collaborations)
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
What is a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI)? A brain-computer interface (BCI), brain-
machine interface (BMI), or neural prosthesis is any technology linking the human brain to a computer A computational system implanted in the brain
that allows a person to control a computer using only brainwaves; for example reading the electrical signals from the brain as a person focuses on a computer screen
Used to repair human cognitive and sensory-motor function Over 219,000 worldwide cochlear implants
11Source: http://www.asha.org/public/hearing/Cochlear-Implant-Frequently-Asked-Questions/
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Future Applications of BCIs 24-7 connectivity to the Internet and other minds
Pathology resolution; cognitive enhancement; platform for human-machine collaboration
The BCI functionality of typing on a keyboard with the mind suggests the possibility of having an always-on brain-Internet connection Cell phones connected every individual, BCIs connect
every brain? (cloudmind, telepathic noosphere) Ubiquitous BCIs, on-board smartphones (‘better
horse’); new possibilities like cloudminds (‘car’) Key functionality: 24-7 connectivity
Human cognitive processing continuously linked to the Internet and other minds in cloudminds via BCI, VR headset, QS wearables, smart contact lenses, etc.
12Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
BCI Governance Concerns The potential advent of brain-
computer interfaces (BCIs) that are ubiquitous and widely-adopted, where humans might be continuously connected to the Internet and other minds in cloudmind formats
Adoption risk solutions Privacy, security, reversibility, credit
assignation, and personal identity retention
13
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Reality (Physical & Algorithmic) is Complex Complexity is a state or
quality of being that is nonlinear, emergent, open, unpredictable and unknowable at the outset, self-organizing, and interdependent General or reductive
Examples of complex adaptive systems include an anthill or a weather system
14Source: Morin, Edgar. (2007). "Restricted complexity, general complexity." Trans. C. Gershenson. In Worldviews, Science and Us: Philosophy and Complexity, ed. C. Gershenson, D. Aerts, and B. Edmonds, 5–29. World Scientific, Singapore.
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Reality is Indeterminacy: Composable Possibility Reality is complex and
exists in a “raw material” state composable per action/observation
Light: wave-particle duality Time: simultaneously
discrete and continuous
Schrödinger's cat: dead or alive?
15Source: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-particle.html, http://actu.epfl.ch/news/the-first-ever-photograph-of-light-as-both-a-parti
The bottom 'slice' of the image shows the particles. The top
image shows light as a wave.
Particle
Wave
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Not all Reality is Thinkable Thinkability
Becoming aware of and coming to terms with phenomena that are “bigger” than humans
Features of the world that are outside our perceptual and experiential domains
Existing situations Quantum physics, black holes, global
warming, the Florida everglades, the biosphere, derivatives, capitalism, neuroscience, big data, blockchains
Radically-different future-tech situations Life extension, digital societies, cloudminds
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May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Thinking Thinkability
17Source:
Need new models for conceiving the correspondence between internal experience and the external world like radical contingency Ancestrality (Meillassoux), hyperobjects (Morton),
superjects (Hansen), object-oriented ontologies (Harman), black swans (Taleb)
Result: human existence decentered
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770–1831)
Phenomenology of Spirit Development of individuals; continual
progression and awareness, emergence Shapes of Consciousness Self-consciousness Free Concrete Mind Absolute Knowledge
Science of Logic Philosophy of meaning, logic
Philosophy of Right Social and political philosophy
Abstract Right and Morality Ethical Life: Family, Civil Society, the State
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May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Hegel: FutureTech Philosophical Principles Bildung – (education, self-formation) continuous life-long
learning, always learning, growing into a new shape Humans in “adolescence” – (thinkability) we don’t know what we
don’t know until we progress; how can we know if we want life extension technologies?
Freedom expressed through bildung (Neuhauser) Progressive shape-changing
Abstract to concrete Sublation – distill useful truth kernel from previous state
and bring it along with you as you move on; helpful way of incorporating yet departing from the past
Complexity - parts-whole, emergence, beyond baseline
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May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Agenda: Economic Abundance in 3 Acts Current Situation and Problem: Algorithmic Reality
Complexity, Emergence, Thinkability Technological Unemployment, Income Inequality
Solution: Abundance Economic Theory
20
1.Scarcity to Availability
2.Survival to Fulfillment Centralization to Decentralization
3.
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Technological Unemployment “Technological breakthroughs endanger up to 47% of
total employment in the US” – Carl Frey, Oxford, 2015 “Robots might take 50% of America's jobs” – Marshall
Brain, 2011
21Source: http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Next to Automate? Commercial Driving “Autonomous Driving Long-
Distance Trucks Will Be A Reality In Ten Years” – 2014
Vehicle-To-Vehicle "V2V" Communication networks
22Source: http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/autonomous-driving-long-distance-trucks-will-be-a-reali-1603746933
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Technological Unemployment (Pew study) Potential Benefits
Tech advances have been a net creator of jobs Adaptation through inventing new types of work Technology is freedom from drudgery, and defines
“work” in a more positive and socially beneficial way Potential Costs
Automation impacting white-collar and blue-collar employment
Highly-skilled workers poised to succeed; others displaced into lower paying service industry jobs or permanent unemployment
Educational system inadequate for future work preparation
23AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs, Pew Research Center, 2014http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
No Shortage of Human Ingenuity
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“If people have the talent to invent new machines that put people out of work, they have the talent
to put those people back to work.”- President John F. Kennedy, 1962
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Top 10 Jobs of the Future
1. Neuro-Implant Technician2. Urban Farmer3. Virtual Reality Experience Designer4. 3-D Printer Design Specialist5. Smart-Home Handyperson6. Remote Health Care Specialist7. End-Of-Life Planner, Senior Carer8. Professional Triber9. Freelance Professor, Coach, Tutor10. Personal Brand Coach and Manager
25http://www.fastcompany.com/3046277/the-new-rules-of-work/the-top-jobs-in-10-years-might-not-be-what-you-expect
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 26
Life of the Future
Now
Jobs of the Future
Reorientation to Jobs and Life of the Future
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 27
Life of the Future
Life of the Future – Potential Categories
Jobs of the Future/Productive Engagement
Education/Training/Learning Recreation, Teams
Exercise, Movement Community Participation
Creativity/Artistic Expression Music, Singing
Coaching/Teaching/Mentoring
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Economic Shift - Success Stories Pittsburgh: from steel to “eds and meds” Baltimore: from mills to townhomes Middle East:
Dubai: oil to financial services; Abu Dhabi: Masdar energy city of the future; Saudi Arabia: KAUST
28
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Agenda: Economic Abundance in 3 Acts Current Situation and Problem: Algorithmic Reality
Complexity, Emergence, Thinkability Technological Unemployment, Income Inequality
Solution: Abundance Economic Theory
29
1.Scarcity to Availability
2.Survival to Fulfillment Centralization to Decentralization
3.
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Maximum possibility is open-ended and unbounded in both structural trajectories (form) and content
emergent, complex, novel, creative
Abundance is a social good
30
BaselineMaximum possibility is recouping baseline (a pre-specified and externally-imposed ideal)
Scarcity is a social pathology: To count as flourishing requires not just alleviating suffering
and surviving (i.e.; recouping baseline), but emergent abundance
Philosophy of Abundance
Abundance
Sources: Philosophical support via Spinoza, Deleuze, Simondon
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Social Goods created by Abundance Not just availability of material goods resolving the
social pathology of scarcity but that new social goods are created through abundance
Social Goods of relief, contingency reduction, peer willingness, stress-easing, and cognitive surplus Psychology of Certainty and Availability: A reliable ongoing feeling
of certainty that material survival needs will be met (unprecedented) Efficiency: much current cognitive and physical effort is tied up
in anti-scarcity measures: hoarding, manipulation, and other anti-scarcity measures; ascertaining future availability of resources
Up-leveled focus: Relief of having a whole class of cognitively-exertional activities drop off the reality of what has to be considered for basic living
31Sources: Social Goods, Social Pathology: Rousseau, Descartes, Augustin, Honneth, Neuhauser, Jaeggihttp://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Agenda: Economic Abundance in 3 Acts Current Situation and Problem: Algorithmic Reality
Complexity, Emergence, Thinkability Technological Unemployment, Income Inequality
Solution: Abundance Economic Theory
32
1.Scarcity to Availability
2.Survival to Fulfillment Centralization to Decentralization
3.
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Rethinking Economics and Governance Recasting governance as abundance not extraction
Actualization economy focuses on (1) sustainable material survival and (2) the social goods of liberation: Self-respect, self-esteem, self-realization
Destabilize non-value-added elites, esprit of Rousseau, Rawls, Hegel: “When liberty is mentioned, we must be careful to observe whether it is not really the assertion of private interests which is thereby designated.”
33
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 34
The sense of duty of the citizen to serve
the republic
Civic Duty Civic CollaborationAncient Greek Statesman Self-directed Cryptocitizen
The sense of meaning and purpose in participating in community sustainability
http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Vision New Polis is the Self-sustaining Micropolis
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Cryptosustainability Micropolis Example:Peer-to-peer Microgrids Transactive Grid, President
Street, Brooklyn NY (Mar 2016) Grid Singularity (Vienna
Austria), SolarCoin (MIT) Peergrid local energy
exchange Citizen-owned solar panels Blockchain-based peer-to-peer
buying and selling (Ethereum) Energy and money goes into
local economy
35Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york/
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Cryptosustainability Micropolis Example Neighbor.ly Self-directed Community Bonds Modern Public Finance, P2P municipal bonds $1 billion / day public finance market
Low accountability, corruption, waste, multiple layers of unnecessary transaction-fee taking without adding value
Community project funding (school, road, bridge) Self-directed investment in civic projects of affinity
Transportation, energy, schools, parks
36
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 37
Conclusion: Welcome to the New
Economy!
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics 38
“Siri, could you have Amazon drone me a
beer?”
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
DIY Biohacker LabsExample: citizen science microbiome sequencing
39Source: Counter Culture Labs
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Cafeteria of the FutureHydroponic microgreens for lunch?
40
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Thesis Statement
41
A new philosophy of economics is needed that is adequate to the
contemporary moment, configuring a mindset shift from 1) survival to fulfillment,
2) scarcity to abundance, and 3) centralization to decentralization
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Successful societies recognize that economics is shifting to the greater production and consumption of “social goods” in complement to “material goods” Social goods such as trust, dignity, abundance, opportunity,
creative expression, fulfillment, challenge, collaboration, status, certainty, availability, contingency, willingness, cognitive surplus
Claim: societies with less income inequality have greater cohesion and trust, and are better poised to move more quickly into the abundance economics of the future Blockchain technology is a key mechanism for building new
forms of societal shared trust Modern society arrived with trust beyond kinship groups; similar
expansion now beyond hierarchical models with decentralization
Thesis StatementTrust-based Social Goods
42Source: http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/swan20151101
May 24, 2016Abundance Economics
Hegel inspires a new way forward
43
“The owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of the dusk”
Hegel, Philosophy of Right, p. 23
Meaning: traditionally, we have only learned from events after they have happened; where the
implication is that some means of prescriptive wisdom is needed to prepare for events
Tempe AZ, May 24, 2016Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Melanie SwanPhilosophy & Economic Theory
New School for Social Research, NY [email protected]
A Hegelian Complexity Theory of
Abundance EconomicsPart of a Series on Cryptophilosophy
cryptophilosophyThank You! Questions?