a002 200 yearsofit

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT

Xact Consulting A/S

Arnold Nielsens Boulevard 68A

DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk

Enterprise Modernization

A002. 200 Years of IT

A Fairy Tale about Usefulness, Limitations,

User Interfaces, Processes, and You

Michael Erichsen,Xact Consulting A/S,

[email protected]

• Some of the material in this session presents products that are still only in research or development

• Also some of the material is way too advanced and complicated for the speaker to really understand

• Please just take it as a can opener for a fairy tale – or a can of worms

Disclaimer


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Once upon a Time…

How it all started

• A Princess?

How it all started

And a Prince?

How it all started

And a Prince?And half the Kingdom?

How it all started

The Differential and Analytical Machines

But the Princess slept for 100 Years

Until One Day (the EDSAC)

IT of the Past

• Please take a moment to think about

– Usefulness

– Limitations

– User Interfaces

– Processes

– Your role

IT of the Past

• Usefulness

– Mathematics

– Administration

• Limitations

– Isolated activities

• User Interfaces

– Heavy handles

– Punched paper tape

– Teletype

– Processes

• Very simple

• Very manual

– Your role

• Mathematician?

• Programmer?

• Typist?

• Operator?

• Hardware technician?

There were great Tournaments

There was a new Prince

Gene Amdahl

There were new Princesses

Grace Hopper

And another new Prince, perhaps?

Bob Noyce

The Microprocessor

• Try to imagine a world without microprocessors

• This is the 4-bit Intel 4004 from 1971

Where is IT going now?

• IT can help fight climate change

• IT can help promote democracy

• IT can boost economy

• IT can help improve health care and care for the aging

• IT can make the world a safer place

Where is IT going now?

• IT can lead to much more scrap and garbage

• IT can turn surveillance and spying into a 1984 nightmare

• IT can blow economic bubbles orders of magnitude up

• IT can send millions of people into unemployment and misery

• IT can make the world a much less safe place


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


The Climate Challenge and IT


• IT can help find sources of water

• IT can help modernize agriculture

• IT can help predict draughts and floods

• IT can help make manufacturing, traffic and distribution cleaner and more efficient


• How much power do companies like Google and Facebook consume?

• What does it take to produce and later to get rid of all our IT equipment?

• Whatever happened to the paperless office?


• Maersk uses analytics to load their ships for reduced relocation of containers



• UPS plans routes with preferences for right turns




• Traffic flow control




• Traffic flow control

• Facebook places a data centre in Luleå to reduce cooling effort and use local hydro power

• Iceland lies perfectly for Europe and the Americas with cold climate and lots of thermal and hydro energy for data centres

• Consolidate your Linux server farms on z hardware


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


The Economy and IT

The Economy and IT

• New technologies can boost the economy

• The data explosion creates completely new industries

• Better information can help run companies, institutions and states better

The Economy and IT

• Fast, unregulated financial flows can destabilize economies

• Hidden tax evasions threatens the funding of welfare society

• IT is an important driver in making this possible

Is a Social Media Bubble about to burst?

• “The ability of social media sites to innovate in the long term, and to retain and monetize their subscribers, will be the true test of whether such valuations are merited.”– Simon Harris, PwC

• Facebook and Google earn fortunes on advertisements, but– Twitter?– Instagram?– Reddit?– Snapchat?

Klaus Schwab: The 4th Industrial Revolution

• “There are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one:

– velocity,

– scope, and

– systems impact

• The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent.”

– Klaus Schwab is founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum (The Davos Meetings)

Klaus Schwab: The 4th Industrial Revolution

• “Technology is… one of the main reasons why incomes have stagnated, or even decreased, for a majority of the population in high-income countries:

• The demand for highly skilled workers has increased while the demand for workers with less education and lower skills has decreased.

• The result is a job market with a strong demand at the high and low ends, but a hollowing out of the middle.”

What do we see in the Nordic Area?

• IT unemployment is falling steadily

• A tendency in the mainframe area to recruit and “revitalize”

• Large companied setting up Mainframe Academies to train young colleagues

• Retired programmers and technical specialists being called back to part time jobs

What do we see in the Nordic Area?

• IT unemployment is falling steadily

• A tendency in the mainframe area to recruit and “revitalize”

• Large companied setting up Mainframe Academies to train young colleagues

• Retired programmers and technical specialists being called back to part time jobs

• Off- and nearshoring of operations jobs

• Developers split between– Architects, business analysts and

customer facing staff

– Coders and testers

• Systems programmers split between– High end: Solution architects,

technology advisors

– Software installers, firefighters


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


“The Sharing Economy”


• Sharing economy (also known as shareconomy or collaborative consumption) is a hybrid market model (in between owning and gift giving) which refers to peer-to-peer-based sharing of access to goods and services (coordinated through community-based online services)


• The Harvard Business Review:

• “Sharing economy" is a misnomer

• The correct word for this activity is "access economy"

• When “sharing” is market-mediated — when a company is an intermediary between consumers who don’t know each other — it is no longer sharing at all

• Rather, consumers are paying to access someone else’s goods or services


• Uber and Airbnb– Fuelled by IT– Company owners earn billions

• Employees have no labour rights– Uber is accused of recommending using Macedonia as tax haven for

Danish Uber drivers to hide their income for taxation and unemployment benefits

– Many European police forces and governments are acting legally against it now

• People renting out their flats have both nice cultural exchanges and very bad experiences– “My flat was used as a brothel”

• In the countryside 200 years ago it was called “day labourers”


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Healthcare and Caring for the Aged

CRISPR

• Clustered regularly-interspaced short palindromic repeats are segments of prokaryotic DNA containing short repetitions of base sequences

• The CRISPR interference technique has enormous potential application, including altering the germline of humans, animals and other organisms, and modifying the genes of food crops

CRISPR

• Ethical concerns have been expressed about the prospect of using this nascent biotechnology for editing the human germline

– GMO disagreements part of current US-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations

Organovo: Developing 3D Bioprinting

Prosthetics

47

Interfacing Robots

• Pascale Fung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology:

– Machines often fail to understand intention

• They do not get emotion and humour, sarcasm and irony…

– The field of empathetic robotics is still in its “steam engine” days, but the tools and algorithms that will dramatically improve these machines are emerging

Interfacing Robots

• Pascale Fung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology:– Machines often fail to understand intention

• They do not get emotion and humour, sarcasm and irony…

– The field of empathetic robotics is still in its “steam engine” days, but the tools and algorithms that will dramatically improve these machines are emerging

• The technical part of understanding spoken languages– 800 phonemes (units of sound) strung together to form all words of

every language in the world (7000)

– Classifier programs group strings of words and tags into 14 moods

– Analysis compares content with mood to identify irony or sarcasm

Interfacing Robots

• Any intelligent machine is, at its core, a software system consisting of modules, each one a program that performs a single task

• An intelligent robot could have one module for processing human speech, one for recognizing objects in images captured by its video camera, and so on.

– Pascale Fung, Scientific American, 2015

Interfacing Robots

• Any intelligent machine is, at its core, a software system consisting of modules, each one a program that performs a single task

• An intelligent robot could have one module for processing human speech, one for recognizing objects in images captured by its video camera, and so on.

• An empathetic robot has a heart, and that heart is a piece of software called the empathy module

• An empathy module analyses facial cues, acoustic markers in speech and the content of speech itself to read human emotion and tell the robot how to respond– Pascale Fung, Scientific American, 2015

Robocare

User Interfaces

• Punched cards and paper tape

• Teletype

• 3270 terminal

• PC Client

User Interfaces

• Punched cards and paper tape

• Teletype

• 3270 terminal

• PC Client

• Web browser

• Mobile devices

• Wearables

• What’s next?

Rethinking User Interfaces


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Applications and the z Platform

What does an Application look like to You?

Early Application

Traditional Application

Web and Client Application

Rich User Interfaces

What does the Infrastructure look like?

Cognitive, Analytics, Big Data, etc.

• Yes, we can do all that on z– But the real fun begins when we

join our existing systems with all the new stuff

• Hybrid Applications– Session S506 in Helsinki 2013:

“Exploitation of Predictive Analytics on System z” by Wang Enzhong and Wei Kewei

– Sentiment analysis and warehousing

– Fraud detection and banking

Hybrid Applications

Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking

• User expectations

• Users are used to the fast response times delivered by CICS, DB2, IMS and MQ

– We must make sure that end to end response times are short and consistent

– We can help our colleagues in the distributed world

• Users expect fast changes in systems to adapt to the mind blowing pace of the surrounding world

– We must admit that we have a lot to learn from our colleagues in the distributed world


• How to collaborate across platforms, skills, methods, and favourite languages?

• Possible? Or just a fairy tale?


• New development tools

– TSO and ISPF was good enough for my grandfather!



– TSO and ISPF was good enough for my grandfather!

– Let us stick to the proven, old-fashioned user interfaces!!!



– TSO to RDz

• In my experience faster to use once you have gotten used to it

• Easier for new colleagues

• Bridging across platforms

– RD&T

• Release the developers and testers from rigid service level agreement driven shackles

• New testing tools– Automated testing

– Rational Integration Tester

– XaTester

• New deployment tools– Continuous delivery

– DevOps

– CICS Build Toolkit

– Rational Team Concert

– UrbanCode

IT of the Present

• Please take a moment to think about

– Usefulness

– Limitations

– User Interfaces

– Processes

– Your role

IT of the Present

• Please take a moment to think about– Usefulness

• Ubiquitous

– Limitations• Bandwidth

• Security

– User Interfaces• 3270

• Web

• Mobile

• IoT

– Processes• Complicated

• Automated

• Across platforms

• Embracing full lifecycle

– Your role• Developer

• Deployer

• Tool maker

• Interface builder

• Designer

• Solution architect


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Privacy

Privacy

• Scott McNealy (then Sun Microsystems CEO):

– "You have no privacy. Get over it.“

• Larry Ellison (Oracle):

– "The privacy you're concerned about is largely an illusion."

Privacy

• Scott McNealy (then Sun Microsystems CEO):

– "You have no privacy. Get over it.“

• Larry Ellison (Oracle):

– "The privacy you're concerned about is largely an illusion."

• Benjamin Franklin:

– "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Privacy

• Changes in climate and economy and perceived threats drive changes in law enforcement

• IT is the most critical factor in this area– Unless somebody decides to

return to real, old fashioned police work

• Privacy is the first sacrifice on the altar of perceived security

Sociometric Solutions • Can be integrated with internal

systems to yield insight across teams, job roles, divisions, and departments

• Managers can proactively understand disruptions to their teams or can be warned of potential project failures based on communication gaps

• Senior leadership can understand the behaviour profiles of high performing teams and target training to raise the performance of all teams


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Data Explosion –

Information Overload

Data Explosion – Information Overload

• New possibilities to boost our knowledge andinsight

Insight

Knowledge

Information

Structured Data

Unstructured Data

Implicit Data

Data Explosion – Information Overload

• New possibilities to boost

– Organized crime

– Terrorism

– Manipulation

– Misinformation

– Censorship

– Surveillance

– Control

Privacy

Internet of Things

iKettles

• The Pen Test Partners researcher Ken Munro mapped and hacked connected iKettles across London demonstrating they leak WiFi passwords

Internet of Things

• Everybody agrees that we have not even seen the start of the Internet of Things…

Only your Imagination sets the Limits!


Xact Consulting A/S


DK-2650 Hvidovre

+45 7023 0100

[email protected]

www.xact.dk


Moderniza-tion

Conversion

Business

Software

Consultants

Please Enjoy the Conference!